农林畜产品分册 ——2026 年市场回顾与 2025 年展望 格林大华期货研究院 刘锦 投资咨询号：Z0011862 从业资格号： F0276812 摘要 2026 年度报告中国期货期权市场年度报告 油脂：沉舟侧畔千帆过 病树前头万木春 粕类：远山初见疑无路 曲径徐行渐有村 全球宏观关注要点，2025 年中美之间先后经历了 5 轮经贸争端，在激烈的对抗中， 中方表现坚定，维护自身利益，最终美方在稀土受制和大豆出口腰斩的背景下，在第 五轮经贸谈判中做出主动取消芬太尼为首的关税行动，中方开始采购美豆。全球大豆 贸易导向从"供给定价"转为"需求定价"。2026 年对全球经济的展望，1、从经济 周期视角，2026 年一季度美国经济大概率见顶。美国消费仍是全球经济的原动力，美 国经济的下行将对全球经济产生外溢风险。2026 年夏季美国经济出现经济金融危机的 1 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年全年，油脂板块整体走势振荡偏强，各品种强弱时间上略有分化。棕榈油先抑 后扬，全年波幅最大；菜籽油领涨植物油板块；豆油全年是区间振荡为主。棕榈方面： 2025 年 1-5 月，印尼 B40 政策不明朗，产量增加，出口降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines the achievements and future goals of Changsha's economic and social development, emphasizing the city's commitment to high-quality growth and innovation while addressing challenges in various sectors. Group 1: Economic Performance - The GDP growth for the city is projected at around 5% for the year, with industrial output increasing by approximately 7.5% and local public budget revenue growing by 2.56% [13][14] - The city has secured over 102.06 billion yuan in special national debt funding, marking a 52.6% increase, and issued project-specific bonds totaling 265.96 billion yuan, driving investments exceeding 100 billion yuan [13][14] - The total import and export volume increased by about 3%, with actual foreign investment rising by 14.4% [14] Group 2: Industrial Development - The city has made significant strides in industrial upgrades, with a 7% increase in tax revenue from industrial parks, which account for approximately 75% of the city's industrial output [15] - New projects in key sectors have been initiated, with a 59% increase in signed projects and a 36% increase in newly operational projects [15] - The city has cultivated three national advanced manufacturing clusters, leading to a ranking of 5th among advanced manufacturing cities in China [25] Group 3: Innovation and R&D - Total R&D expenditure reached 511.56 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.2% increase, with the number of research institutions doubling to 4,336 [16] - The city has established a comprehensive innovation ecosystem, with over 100 major scientific research achievements produced in recent years [16] - Changsha has been recognized as a global R&D center, with significant investments in technology and innovation infrastructure [26] Group 4: Urban Development and Infrastructure - The city has completed major infrastructure projects, including the construction of new transportation hubs and the expansion of public transport networks [20][28] - Urban renewal initiatives have led to the renovation of 40 old residential communities and the construction of new public facilities [20] - Changsha has been selected for national urban renewal initiatives, enhancing its urban landscape and livability [20] Group 5: Social Welfare and Quality of Life - The city has implemented various social welfare programs, achieving a significant increase in employment and public service quality [21][29] - The urban unemployment rate has been maintained below 5.5%, with substantial investments in healthcare and education [21] - Changsha has been recognized as one of the most livable cities in China, with ongoing efforts to enhance public safety and community well-being [21][29] Group 6: Future Goals and Strategic Focus - The city aims for an average GDP growth of 5% to 5.5% over the next five years, with a focus on high-tech manufacturing and innovation [33] - Plans include enhancing the integration of the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban area and promoting cultural and technological synergies [35][36] - The city is committed to expanding its role in the national market and improving its overall competitiveness through strategic reforms and investments [37]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][68]. Core Insights - The report highlights fluctuations in pig prices, with a focus on supply rhythm changes. As of January 9, the pig price was 12.58 CNY/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.09 CNY/kg. The report notes that the northern farming sector is experiencing tight supply due to previous overselling and disease impacts, while southern enterprises are increasing output, leading to weaker price adjustments [2][9][30]. - In the beef sector, calf prices are rising, and import restrictions on beef are expected to support long-term price increases. As of January 9, the price for fattening bulls was 25.51 CNY/kg, up 0.08% week-on-week, while calf prices reached 32.41 CNY/kg, up 2.43% week-on-week. The report anticipates a tightening supply of beef in the coming years due to a decrease in breeding cows [3][34]. - The poultry sector is affected by an outbreak of avian influenza in France, leading to tightened breeding imports. The price for white feather broilers was 7.64 CNY/kg as of January 9, down 0.08% week-on-week. The report suggests that the ongoing restrictions on imports may lead to a contraction in upstream capacity [3][41][45]. Summary by Sections Swine Industry - Pig prices are currently experiencing fluctuations, with a noted decrease in average weight of pigs being marketed. The average weight as of January 8 was 128.54 kg, down 0.12 kg week-on-week. The report indicates that the industry is facing losses, and capacity reduction policies are expected to continue, potentially leading to a long-term increase in pig prices [2][11][30]. - The average daily slaughter volume for the week was 189,800 pigs, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.13%. The report also mentions a decrease in frozen product inventory rates, which stood at 19.48% as of January 8, down 2.06 percentage points week-on-week [11][30]. Beef Industry - The report indicates that calf prices are on the rise due to increased demand from breeding farms. The long-term outlook for beef prices is positive, supported by import restrictions on beef that will limit supply [3][34]. Poultry Industry - The report notes that the outbreak of avian influenza has led to a halt in the pricing of broiler chicks, with current prices for white feather broilers slightly down. The ongoing restrictions on imports are expected to impact upstream production capacity [3][41][45]. Dairy Industry - The report states that raw milk prices are currently at a low point, with the price as of January 2 being 3.03 CNY/kg, unchanged week-on-week. The ongoing losses in the dairy sector are expected to lead to continued capacity reduction, with a potential stabilization of prices in 2026 [3][35]. Seed Industry - The report discusses the strengthening of intellectual property protection in the seed industry, highlighting recent cases that aim to combat infringement and improve market order. This regulatory environment is expected to support the revitalization of the seed industry [52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agricultural industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a structural shortage in the pig market, with expectations for a price turning point in Q2 2026 due to ongoing capacity reduction and favorable policies [3][9] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term performance improvement in the pig farming sector, driven by policy and market forces [3][9] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, anticipating a price recovery in Q2 2026, with suggested stocks including Muyuan Foods (002714, Buy), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498, Buy), and Shennong Group (605296, Not Rated) [3] - It also suggests looking at the animal health sector, which may benefit from profit transmission down the supply chain, with recommended stocks including Haida Group (002311, Buy) and Reap Bio (300119, Not Rated) [3] - In the planting chain, the report notes a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, highlighting investment opportunities in large-scale planting, with suggested stocks including Suqian Agricultural Development (601952, Not Rated) and Beidahuang (600598, Not Rated) [3] - The pet food sector is also highlighted, with growth driven by increasing domestic brand recognition and overseas market expansion, recommending stocks such as Guibao Pet (301498, Not Rated) and Zhongchong Co. (002891, Not Rated) [3] Industry Fundamentals - The report indicates that December saw a continued increase in pig output, with 13 listed pig companies collectively reporting an output of 18.72 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 7.11% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [13] - The average selling price for pigs in December remained low, with a range from 10.66 yuan/kg to 12.54 yuan/kg, and an overall average around 11.5 yuan/kg [15] - The average weight of pigs sold in December was 124.85 kg, reflecting a decrease of 1.8 kg from the previous month, indicating a trend of accelerated inventory reduction [15][16] Market Trends - The report notes that the natural rubber market is experiencing price strength, with futures prices reaching 16,030 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2.72% [47] - The report also highlights a stable upward trend in grain prices, with corn and wheat prices showing slight declines while soybean meal prices have increased [37]

Group 1 - The planting industry sector increased by 0.78% on January 9, with Yasheng Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 0.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up 1.15% [1] - Yasheng Group's stock price rose by 7.62% to 3.53, with a trading volume of 1.9829 million shares and a transaction value of 705 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The planting industry sector saw a net inflow of 160 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 177 million yuan [2] - The stock of Jingyin Gaoke decreased by 7.96% to 10.76, with a trading volume of 946,100 shares and a transaction value of 102.5 million yuan [2] - The stock of Shennong Seed Industry increased by 3.45% to 7.50, with a trading volume of 2.1746 million shares and a transaction value of 1.617 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - Yasheng Group had a net inflow of 1.13 billion yuan from main funds, representing 16.05% of its total trading [3] - Jingyin Gaoke experienced a net outflow of 75.64 million yuan from retail investors, accounting for 7.38% of its total trading [3] - Shennong Seed Industry had a net inflow of 35.56 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 101 million yuan [3]

证券日报网讯 1月8日，隆平高科发布公告称，公司第九届董事会第二十六次（临时）会议审议通过 《关于向控股子公司隆平农业发展股份有限公司提供借款的议案》。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the vast potential of the Chinese seed industry market, which is currently fragmented, with different companies focusing on various segments due to differences in business layout and technical expertise [1] - The company, Longping High-Tech (隆平高科), serves as the core listed platform for crop breeding under CITIC Group, emphasizing its strategic position in the industry [1] - Longping High-Tech collaborates closely with research institutions such as the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and Wuhan University, focusing on key technological breakthroughs in rice, corn, and wheat, as well as the creation of high-quality new germplasm and the industrialization of research outcomes [1] Group 2 - The company has successfully cultivated and promoted a large number of high-yield, high-quality, and stress-resistant varieties, which have been widely adopted across the country, resulting in significant planting benefits [1]

证券代码：000998 证券简称：隆平高科 公告编号：2026-03 袁隆平农业高科技股份有限公司 关于向控股子公司提供借款的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1.袁隆平农业高科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）拟向控股子公司隆 平农业发展股份有限公司（以下简称"隆平发展"）提供不超过 20,000 万元人 民币借款，借款期限自董事会审议通过之日起 3 年，上述额度在期限范围内可以 循环滚动使用；借款利率参照国内金融机构向隆平发展提供的同期同档次贷款利 率，本次执行利率为年利率 2.60%。 2.本次借款已经公司 2026 年 1 月 7 日召开的第九届董事会第二十六次（临 时）会议审议通过，无需提交股东会审议。本次借款不构成《深圳证券交易所股 票上市规则》规定的关联交易，也不构成《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》规 定的重大资产重组。 3.本次借款的对象隆平发展为公司控股子公司，公司能对隆平发展实施有效 的业务、资金管理等风险控制，确保资金安全，且其第二大股东已对其提供借款， 本次借款事项整体风险可控。 一、本次借款事项概述 隆 ...

证券代码：000998 证券简称：隆平高科 公告编号：2026-02 二、备查文件 袁隆平农业高科技股份有限公司 第九届董事会第二十六次（临时）会议决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、董事会会议召开及审议情况 袁隆平农业高科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第九届董事会第二十 六次（临时）会议采用通讯方式召开和表决。根据《中华人民共和国公司法》（以 下简称《公司法》）及《袁隆平农业高科技股份有限公司章程》（以下简称《公 司章程》）的有关规定，本次会议的通知以电子邮件方式于 2026 年 1 月 7 日送达 公司全体董事和高级管理人员。本次会议的召集和召开符合《公司法》及《公司 章程》的有关规定。截至 2026 年 1 月 7 日，公司董事会办公室共计收到 9 位董事 的有效表决票，现根据董事表决意见形成如下决议： 审议通过了《关于向控股子公司隆平农业发展股份有限公司提供借款的议案》 本次公司向控股子公司隆平农业发展股份有限公司（以下简称"隆平发展"） 提供借款，主要为满足其在发展过程中资金周转需要，不会影响公司的正常业务 开展及资金使 ...

Economic Growth and Development Goals - The city's GDP is projected to grow by approximately 5% in 2025, with industrial added value increasing by around 7.5% and local public budget revenue rising by 2.56% [3][4] - The city has been recognized as one of the most livable cities in China for 18 consecutive years, with over 400 consumer promotion events held, driving total social consumption to exceed 42 billion yuan [3][4] Investment and Industrial Development - The city aims to attract over 102.06 billion yuan in long-term special government bond funds and central budget investments, marking a 52.6% increase [4] - Significant industrial projects have been launched, including the Hisense (Changsha) Industrial Park and the Yuhu Cold Chain Trading Center, contributing to the completion of annual investment plans [5] Innovation and R&D - Total R&D expenditure in the city reached 51.156 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.2% increase, with effective invention patents totaling 88,600 [8] - The city has established a national laboratory system and has seen a doubling of various R&D institutions over the past two years [8] Business Environment and Reforms - The city has completed 852 key reform tasks, with significant improvements in the business environment, ranking in the top 10 nationally for four consecutive evaluations [24][12] - The integration of the Ningxiang Economic Development Zone and Ningxiang High-tech Zone has been completed, enhancing operational efficiency [12] Urban and Rural Development - The city has made substantial progress in urban infrastructure, including the construction of the Huanghua Airport and the expansion of metro lines, contributing to improved urban living standards [25][14] - Rural revitalization efforts have led to the establishment of high-standard farmland and community support services, enhancing agricultural productivity [26][18]