证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 25 日 猪肉供过于求局面加剧，猪价继续下跌 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 26 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：8 月 19 日，农业农村部种植业管理司会同全国农 业技术推广服务中心在广西南宁召开全国秋粮作物中后期重大 病虫害防控现场会，组织主产省份观摩重大病虫害绿色防控作 业现场，邀请行业专家重点讲解水稻和玉米病虫害发生规律及 绿色防控技术，动员安排秋粮作物重大病虫害防控工作。会议 指出，秋粮产量占全年粮食产量的四分之三，要完成今年粮食 产量 1.4 万亿斤左右的目标任务，关键看秋粮。把好秋粮病虫 害防控关，对夺取全年粮食丰收意义重大。当前，受降雨偏多 等不利因素影响，秋粮重大病虫害发生重于上年，监测防控任 务仍较为艰巨。8—9 月份是秋粮产量形成的关键时期，也是病 虫害多发重发期。各地要高度重视，突出重点、分类指导、科 学防控，抓住主要作物、重点区域、重大病虫和关键环节，全 力以赴推进"虫口夺粮"保秋粮丰收行动。在粮食安全背景 下，转基因技术在提升单产方面具有革命性作用，我们判断 ...

巴西《经济价值报》8月14日报道，据巴西地理统计局数据，2025年巴西农作物产量预计为34050万 吨，将创历史最高纪录，同比增长16.3%；农作物收获面积8120万公顷，同比增长2.7%。大豆、玉米、 高粱和棉花产量均创历史新高。其中，大豆产量16550万吨，同比增长14.2%；玉米产量13760万吨，同 比增长19.9%；高粱产量490万吨，同比增长23.6%；棉花（籽棉）产量950万吨，同比增长7.1%。此 外，水稻产量1250万吨，同比增长17.7%。小麦产量770万吨，同比增长2.3%。 （原标题：2025年巴西农作物产量预计创纪录） ...

央视网消息：春雨惊春清谷天，夏满芒夏暑相连。秋处露秋寒霜降，冬雪雪冬小大寒。8月23日是农历二十四节气中的第14个节气，也是 秋季的第2个节气——处暑。 《月令七十二候集解》中说：处，止也。暑气至此而止矣。三伏天已过，北方天气渐渐转凉，南方预计还会再热一段时间。宋代诗人苏泂有诗 云：处暑无三日，新凉直万金。 处暑满地黄 家家修廪仓 处暑节气有三候，一候鹰乃祭鸟，二候天地始肃，三候禾乃登。老鹰感应到秋季天地间的肃杀之气，开始捕猎鸟类，并像陈列祭祀一样，把捕 到的猎物摆放在地上。 "禾乃登"则寓意着丰收，各类农作物也到了成熟和收获的关键时期。农业谚语说：处暑满地黄，家家修廪仓。 中稻+再生稻"一种两收" 头季迎来丰收 在四川泸州泸县的国家现代农业产业园——方洞核心区，水稻近期迎来丰收。这里也是采用中稻+再生稻"一种两收"模式，进行头季收割最早 的地区之一。一台台收割机开足马力，高效运行，农机特别选用了39厘米折叠履带，最大限度保护稻桩，为再生稻生长留足空间。 在合江县白米镇的壬河农机专业合作社，稻谷运输用上了无人机。无人机配备智能避障系统，每趟可载重40至60公斤。泸州20254年水稻种植 面积超过200万亩，科 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights Guangxi's efforts to enhance standardization cooperation with ASEAN countries, addressing existing challenges in policy communication and collaboration [1][2] - Guangxi has established the ASEAN National Standardization Cooperation Exchange Center to facilitate standardization negotiations and improve cooperation with ASEAN [1] - The center has participated in the negotiation of the standardization chapter of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 agreement and strengthened collaboration with the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, Guangxi's cross-border e-commerce import and export volume exceeded 25 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of over 140%, and nearly 70% of this trade involved ASEAN countries [2] - Guangxi is addressing issues related to differing cross-border express delivery standards and challenges in returning cross-border e-commerce goods by implementing logistics service standard enhancement projects [2] - In agriculture, Guangxi has initiated standardized demonstration projects in Vietnam, resulting in a 51% increase in rice yield through standardized planting and agricultural technology training [2]

Core Insights - The current agricultural practices in various regions are focused on ensuring a successful autumn harvest by implementing detailed field management measures [1] - The use of drones for agricultural spraying is gaining traction, leading to cost savings and improved efficiency for farmers [1][3] Group 1: Agricultural Practices - Multiple regions are in the critical phase of crop yield formation, with local authorities emphasizing the importance of field management for a bountiful autumn harvest [1] - In Henan Province, the total area for autumn grain planting exceeds 76 million acres, with over 13,000 agricultural technicians deployed to implement yield-increasing measures [1] Group 2: Technology Adoption - In Henan's Luohe City, a farmer reported saving over 10,000 yuan on pesticide and aerial application costs by using drones for spraying [1] - Heilongjiang Province has utilized 33,000 agricultural drones to complete 137 million acres of "one spray multiple promotions" for grain crops [3] Group 3: Regional Focus - In Anhui Province, 32.29 million acres of single-season rice are in critical growth stages, with local agricultural departments actively managing pest control and fertilization [1] - Agricultural experts in Heilongjiang are providing guidance to farmers on how to effectively respond to weather impacts and enhance crop yields [2][1]

Core Insights - Despite rare drought conditions, Yancheng's summer grain production reached 2.5996 million tons, ranking first in the province, maintaining stable production for ten consecutive years [1] Group 1: Agricultural Practices and Innovations - High-standard farmland is crucial for harvest success, with Yancheng introducing high-yield new varieties and achieving an average wheat yield of 600 kg per mu [2][4] - The city has constructed a "digital + facilities + machinery" smart planting system, including automatic weather stations and advanced technologies like unmanned plant protection and intelligent irrigation [2] - Yancheng plans to increase arable land by 102,000 mu in 2024, with over 500,000 mu of high-standard farmland, achieving a construction rate of 83.64% on permanent basic farmland [3] Group 2: Seed Development and Crop Yield - The wheat planting area in Yancheng reached 663,000 mu, with a total output of 340 million kg, generating over 800 million yuan in value [4] - The city focuses on breeding high-yield, quality, and disease-resistant seeds, utilizing new technologies to enhance breeding efficiency [4] - The agricultural research institute has successfully developed several new wheat varieties, showcasing the importance of quality seeds for agricultural success [4] Group 3: Smart Agriculture and Digital Transformation - Yancheng is advancing agricultural digitalization, establishing a comprehensive data platform to integrate technology with production and management [8] - The implementation of smart farming techniques, such as precision irrigation and environmental control, has significantly improved agricultural efficiency and product quality [7][8] - The city aims to enhance the brand influence of its agricultural products and contribute to national food security through a robust agricultural supply chain [8]

Group 1: Industry Development - The Taklamakan Desert, the world's second-largest shifting sand desert, is undergoing significant transformation with the completion of a 3,046 km green protective forest belt in Xinjiang, which is expected to enhance local ecological conditions and promote economic development [1] - The aquaculture industry in the Taklamakan Desert region is thriving, with a reported output value of 380 million yuan from seafood farming, including crabs and fish, in the Hetian area [3][5] - The introduction of advanced water treatment technologies has allowed for the successful cultivation of seafood in previously unusable saline-alkali land, resulting in a total aquatic product output of 12,000 tons in 2024 [5] Group 2: Agricultural Innovation - The "Daoxiang Village" in the Hetian region has successfully cultivated rice in the desert, overcoming challenges such as sandy soil, salinity, and water scarcity, leading to an increase in rice yield to approximately 600 kg per mu [6][10] - The implementation of a drip irrigation system has enabled the cultivation of corn in the desert, achieving water savings of 30% to 50% compared to traditional irrigation methods, thus transforming barren land into productive agricultural areas [12][14] - The diversification of crops, including alfalfa and vegetables, has led to an integrated farming model, significantly increasing the average income of local residents to over 20,000 yuan [16] Group 3: Economic Impact - The total area of specialty economic crops in Xinjiang's sandy regions has reached 1.845 million mu, generating an annual output value of 4.37 billion yuan, showcasing the economic potential of desert reclamation [18] - The shift from "green advancing, sand retreating" to "turning sand into gold" reflects a successful transformation in the region's agricultural practices, contributing to improved living conditions for local communities [18]

Core Viewpoint - The development of a "green collar" industry in the Taklamakan Desert region of Xinjiang is transforming previously unproductive land into a thriving agricultural and aquaculture hub, showcasing innovative techniques in water management and crop cultivation [1][3][11]. Group 1: Aquaculture Development - The unique "desert seafood" aquaculture industry in the southern Taklamakan Desert has rapidly developed, with a water product output of 12,000 tons and a value of 380 million yuan [3]. - Local techniques such as "de-salting" and "de-alkalizing" have successfully adjusted the pH levels of water from 9.5-11 to the optimal range of 7.5-8.5 for aquatic life [3]. - The aquaculture initiative has also improved local employment, with average monthly wages exceeding 3,600 yuan [3]. Group 2: Rice Cultivation - In the desert edge area known as Daoxiang Village, rice cultivation has expanded to 10,000 acres, overcoming challenges of salinity, alkalinity, and water scarcity [5]. - The average yield of rice has increased to approximately 600 kilograms per acre, contributing to a rise in per capita income to 14,600 yuan [5]. - The integration of tourism with agricultural practices has further enhanced the economic prospects of the village [5]. Group 3: Diverse Agricultural Practices - The introduction of corn cultivation in the desert has been facilitated by a drip irrigation system, which conserves 30%-50% more water compared to traditional methods [7]. - The region has diversified its agricultural output by incorporating alfalfa and other crops, leading to a more integrated "planting + breeding" industry chain [9]. - The average income of villagers has surpassed 20,000 yuan, reflecting improved living conditions due to diversified agricultural practices [9]. Group 4: Economic Impact - The total area of specialty economic crops in desert regions of Xinjiang has reached 1.845 million acres, generating an annual output value of 4.37 billion yuan [11]. - The transformation from barren land to productive agricultural zones illustrates a successful model of sustainable development and economic growth in arid regions [11].

塔克拉玛干沙漠是世界第二大流动沙漠。2024年，全长3046公里的绿色锁边护林带在新疆和田顺利合龙，仿佛给曾经的"死亡之海"织就了一条"绿围脖"。今 年上半年，新疆统筹安排20.14亿元财政资金，进一步巩固"锁边"成果。"绿围脖"不仅越织越厚，还孕育出了一条"绿富同兴"的产业发展之路。 沙漠养"海鲜" 水产业产值3.8亿元 总台记者卜鹏：你能想象到在远离海洋的沙漠边缘也能养殖"海鲜"吗？在位于塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘的新疆和田地区，肥美的螃蟹、鲜活的鱼虾在这里茁壮生 长，独特的"沙漠海鲜"养殖产业在这里快速发展。 把海洋里的鱼虾养到沙漠里的池塘，最大的难题就在于水的酸碱度。 治理之前，当地水质的pH值在9.5至11之间。当地运用"降盐""脱碱"等技术手段，通过添加淡水来调整水池的pH值，水质才最终被调整到适合鱼虾生长的pH 值7.5至8.5。在干旱的沙漠地带，终于破解了养海鲜的难题。2024年，和田地区的水产品产量达到了1.2万吨，产值高达3.8亿元。 沙漠种水稻打开新粮仓 水稻喜欢温暖湿润，但新疆和田有个叫稻香村的地方，却在沙漠边缘种出万亩水稻。稻香村原名阿亚格墩村，过去虽然有喀拉喀什河的灌溉之利，但水稻的 产量 ...

农林牧渔 农林牧渔 2025 年 08 月 15 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 相关研究报告 《出猪节奏导致 7 月猪价涨幅不及预 期，后市猪价不悲观—行业点评报告》 -2025.8.14 《政策强催化与基本面共振渐成，生 猪低位积极布局 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.8.10 《集团降重叠加二育出栏，全国猪价 承压—行业周报》-2025.8.3 8 月 USDA 农产品报告上调全球玉米、水稻产量，下 调大豆、小麦产量 ——行业点评报告 陈雪丽（分析师） 朱本伦（联系人） chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 玉米：2025/2026 年全球产量、消费量环比上调 （1）USDA 上调全球玉米产量。USDA（美国农业部）发布 8 月全球农产品 2025/2026 年供需预测报告，与 7 月预测报告相比，8 月报告上调玉米产量，主 要系美国、乌克兰玉米收获面积扩大。（2）供需情况：产量方面，2025/2026 年 全球玉米产量环比调增 2492 万吨至 12.89 亿吨。贸易方面，2025/2026 年出口量 环比调增 505 万吨至 2.01 亿吨。消费量 ...