Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with revenue at 10.123 billion yuan, down 0.09% year-on-year, and net profit at 521 million yuan, down 7.12% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on AI technology to enhance operational efficiency across various business areas, including supply chain and inventory management [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards by 7.0% and 6.3% respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 [4] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's main business revenue was 9.371 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.23% [3] - The comprehensive gross margin for 2024 was 29.35%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The net profit for 1Q2025 was 157 million yuan, a decrease of 4.15% year-on-year [1] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to 10.460 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 3.33% [5] - The estimated net profit for 2025 is 580 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 11.36% compared to 2024 [5] - The report provides a detailed financial summary, including projected EPS and ROE figures for the coming years [10][12] Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a well-known convenience store brand in the Sichuan region, continuously optimizing store services and exploring AI applications [4] - The company has successfully generated over 1 billion yuan in sales through Douyin live streaming in 2024 [3] - The company is also developing a vending machine system to complement traditional retail and attract new consumer groups [3]

据介绍，红旗连锁还借助抖音直播内容场景优势，将镜头聚焦当天在成都环球中心大厅线下开设的外贸 转内销商品特展会。在特展会现场，生活用纸、休闲食品、洗化用品、面包饼干、奶制品、茶叶、锅具 等外贸商品丰富多样。 抖音生活服务方面表示，本次专场直播由"抖音外贸优品专项扶持计划"特别支持，双方通过优价代金 券、线上线下（300959）融合的方式，助力更多优质外贸商品和外贸供应商拓展国内市场。对于在抖音 生活服务平台经营、符合相关要求的商超、零售企业，该平台将提供专场直播流量补贴；还将邀请明 星、探店达人等助力实体商家开播获客；以短视频流量补贴、开屏曝光资源等助力优质外贸商品及商家 拓宽市场。 4月18日，红旗连锁（002697）携手抖音生活服务开启了专场直播，助力线下门店外贸优品销售。在当 天直播间里，红旗连锁官方联合抖音让利补贴，推出涵盖日化洗护、茶饮、食品等多个类目的优价团购 商品和多款团购代金券。整场直播总交易额超1300万元。18日当天，红旗连锁抖音直播间最高实时场观 看超过25万人次，整体曝光人数达424万。 近期，头部电商和零售平台多措并举，积极与外贸企业展开对接。随着帮扶工作的持续推进，助力外贸 企业出口 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in investment income for Xinwang Bank, which negatively impacts profits. However, live e-commerce is driving the accumulation of private traffic, countering pressures from traditional channels, while AI technology is enabling new retail scenarios [1] Financial Performance - The company maintains a "buy" rating and updates profit forecasts, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 509 million, 530 million, and 561 million yuan for 2025-2027, with EPS of 0.37, 0.39, and 0.41 yuan respectively. A target price of 7.42 yuan is set based on a 24x PE for 400 million yuan of main business profit and a 5x PE for 112 million yuan of investment income from Xinwang Bank [2] - For 2024, the company projects revenue of 10.123 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.09% year-on-year, with a net profit of 521 million yuan, down 7.12% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 2.479 billion yuan, down 7.17% year-on-year, with a net profit of 157 million yuan, down 4.15% year-on-year [2] - Investment income from Xinwang Bank and Gansu Hongqi is approximately 120 million yuan for 2024, down 18% year-on-year, and about 30 million yuan for Q1 2025, down 9% year-on-year, primarily due to declining bank interest rates and narrowing interest margins [2] Business Strategy - The company is enhancing collaboration with social e-commerce platforms, achieving over 1 billion yuan in sales through normalized and frequent operations on Douyin live broadcasts. This strategy also includes offline redemption to drive traffic to physical stores, thereby increasing repurchase rates [3] - The company is optimizing underperforming stores and streamlining management to improve operational efficiency. It plans to expand its presence in the Chengdu area and strategically enter the southern Sichuan city cluster [3] - To meet immediate consumer needs, the company is introducing a variety of products such as coffee, meals, and fresh produce in its stores. It is also developing the "Hongqi Preferred" product line to enhance consumer loyalty [3] - The company is actively exploring AI technology applications in supply chain, inventory management, logistics, and store management to improve operational efficiency. The introduction of unmanned vending systems is expected to complement traditional retail and enhance customer shopping experiences [3]

今日早参 2025 年 4 月 21 日 策略：震荡下的结构选择 本周中美关税扰动压制市场风险偏好，资金交投相对清淡，沪深两市成交额 回落，A 股或处于震荡歇脚期：Q2 经济走势波折预期下，投资者对政策对冲 预期强化，此外，逆势资金托底力量延续，底部位置仍有支撑，但上行动力 仍待凝聚，破局点或在于 4 月末政治局会议定调、科技产业周期的催化。配 置上，防御型资产及政策对冲方向仍为短期主线，红利中，交运/保险/通信 服务等 2024 年分红率有望提升且拥挤度低位；政策对冲端，关注内需/自主 可控方向中景气改善的方向。此外，当前科技调整相对充分，随着后续风险 偏好修复，可适当布局具备一定产业催化的超跌方向。 风险提示：海外关税政策超预期；国内政策及经济数据不及预期。 研报发布日期：2025-04-20 研究员 何康 SAC:S0570520080004 SFC:BRB318 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：外需波动，基建加速 上周国内生产及政府投资活动仍较强，地方债发行同比多增，新房及二手房 成交同比均有所回落， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 6.55 [8][9]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to weak downstream demand and intensified industry competition, with 2024 revenue at RMB 10.12 billion (yoy -0.09%) and net profit at RMB 0.52 billion (yoy -7.12%) [1]. - The company is undergoing structural optimization, focusing on cost control, asset optimization, and digital upgrades in the supply chain, which may enhance its medium to long-term growth potential [1][4]. - The company has seen a shift towards lower-tier markets, with significant growth in the tobacco and alcohol categories, indicating a strategic pivot in its market approach [2]. Financial Performance - The gross margin for 2024 slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 29.4%, primarily due to increased promotional activities and cost pressures [3]. - The net profit margin also declined by 0.4 percentage points to 5.2%, reflecting the overall impact of macroeconomic challenges on performance [3]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 2.48 billion (yoy -7.17%) and a net profit of RMB 0.16 billion (yoy -4.15%), showing resilience in core business profitability [1][3]. Operational Insights - The company is expected to benefit from government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption, positioning it favorably as a leading retailer in Southwest China [4]. - The change in the controlling shareholder to the Sichuan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is anticipated to leverage synergies with local enterprises, marking a new development phase for the company [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 11.6% and 8.3% to RMB 0.55 billion and RMB 0.60 billion, respectively [5]. - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16 times for 2025, reflecting the ongoing transformation of the company's operations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 10.12 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 520 million yuan, down 7.12% year-on-year, primarily due to weak downstream demand and intensified industry competition [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.48 billion yuan, a decline of 7.17% year-on-year, with a net profit of 160 million yuan, down 4.15% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 150 million yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.72% year-on-year, indicating resilience in core business profitability [1] - The gross margin for 2024 slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 29.4%, attributed to increased promotional activities and cost pressures. The expense ratios for sales, management, and finance decreased by 0.2 percentage points, 0.1 percentage points, and remained stable at 22.6%, 1.4%, and 0.6% respectively, indicating good expense control. Overall, the net profit margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 5.2% [3] Growth Highlights - The tobacco and alcohol categories, along with the suburban market, emerged as growth highlights, with revenues for tobacco and alcohol, food, and daily necessities showing year-on-year changes of +4.30%, -0.74%, and -6.53% respectively, reaching 3.52 billion, 4.56 billion, and 1.29 billion yuan. The tobacco and alcohol category led in growth [2] - The company is witnessing a trend of revenue migration towards lower-tier markets, with revenues in Chengdu urban areas and suburban areas showing year-on-year changes of -6.58% and +12.39%, reaching 5.27 billion and 3.71 billion yuan respectively [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on deepening its omnichannel integration strategy, achieving over 1 billion yuan in sales through online platforms like Douyin live streaming, while offline channels are driving customer engagement [2] - The change in the actual controller to the Sichuan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is expected to leverage synergies with entities like Sichuan Commerce Investment Urban-Rural Construction Group, marking a new development phase for the company [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to explore social e-commerce partnerships, unmanned retail, and meet immediate demand to expand its growth, alongside optimizing its tail-end channels for quality and efficiency improvements [4] - Due to uncertainties in downstream consumer demand recovery, the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 11.6% and 8.3% to 550 million and 600 million yuan respectively, with an introduction of 2027 EPS at 0.45 yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the coming months [5][15]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue at 10.123 billion yuan, down 0.09%, and net profit at 521 million yuan, down 7.12% [10][11]. - The company is positioned as a leading convenience store operator in the Sichuan region, with a stable market position and operational resilience, expected to leverage its state-owned background for further business expansion [12][15]. - The revenue structure is gradually optimizing, with significant growth in suburban areas, while the main business revenue showed a slight increase of 0.23% [11][12]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 29.35%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points, and a net profit margin of 5.15%, down 0.39 percentage points [13]. - The company’s operating income for 2025 is projected to be 10.358 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 585 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 12.20% [15][16]. - The company’s expenses were well-controlled, with a total expense ratio of 24.54%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous year [12][13]. Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, the revenue breakdown by product shows: - Food revenue at 4.559 billion yuan, accounting for 45.04%, down 0.74% - Tobacco and alcohol revenue at 3.524 billion yuan, accounting for 34.81%, up 4.30% - Daily necessities revenue at 1.288 billion yuan, accounting for 12.72%, down 6.53% - Other business revenue at 0.753 billion yuan, accounting for 7.43%, down 3.90% [11][12]. Regional Performance - Revenue from Chengdu urban areas was 5.269 billion yuan, accounting for 52.05%, down 6.58%, while suburban revenue increased to 3.712 billion yuan, accounting for 36.67%, up 12.39% [11][12].

Group 1 - The company reported a total revenue of 2.768 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a decrease of 7.24% compared to the same period last year [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 157 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.15%, with investment income contributing 35 million yuan, down 9.33% [6] - The company has actively responded to the national policy to boost consumption by issuing "Red Flag Chain Benefit Cards" to provide discounts to consumers [5] Group 2 - The company experienced a 32.35% decrease in prepaid expenses compared to the end of the previous year, primarily due to a reduction in procurement amounts [7] - Employee compensation payable decreased by 34.56%, mainly due to the distribution of year-end bonuses [8] - Taxes payable increased by 46.17% compared to the end of the previous year, primarily due to income tax provisions [9] Group 3 - Other income saw a significant decline of 80.95%, mainly due to a decrease in re-employment subsidies [10] - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 137.39% year-on-year, attributed to intensified promotional activities and competition in the market [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decrease in total revenue for 2024, but showed growth in its main business revenue, while net profit experienced a decline compared to the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 10.123 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.09% year-on-year [1]. - Main business revenue reached 9.371 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.23% compared to the previous year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 521 million yuan, down 7.12% year-on-year [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 1.195 billion yuan, which is 2.29 times the net profit, indicating strong cash flow management [1]. - As of the end of the reporting period, total assets were 8.285 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 46.12%, showing a healthy financial structure [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on deepening the integration of online and offline operations to stimulate new consumer activity [2]. - It has increased collaboration with social e-commerce platforms, achieving over 1 billion yuan in sales through Douyin live streaming [2]. - The company has optimized its store network by closing unprofitable locations and has implemented a flatter organizational structure to enhance operational efficiency [2]. - In 2024, the company reported a decrease in all three categories of period expenses, with management expenses down 3.79% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.479 billion yuan, a decline of 7.17% year-on-year, with a net profit of 157 million yuan, down 4.15% [2].

红旗连锁（002697）公告，2025年第一季度营业收入24.79亿元，同比下降7.17%。净利润1.57亿元，同 比下降4.15%。 ...