国泰海通晨报 2026 年 01 月 29 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【策略研究】：本轮全球宽松周期下，各类资产关联度上升，新任美联储主席的变动有望重塑 全球货币政策路径与市场空间。 2、【建筑工程研究】华电科工：2025 全年公告重大合同同比增 83.8%，其中 2025Q4 重大合同同 比增 87.1%。重大合同快速增长，并将在后续不断落地，预示公司基本面有望受益提升。 3、【美妆研究】若羽臣：公司公告预计 2025 年归母净利润 1.76-2 亿元，同比+67%-89%，主要受 益自有品牌及品牌管理业务加速成长，看好旗下绽家、斐萃等多品牌高增，打开成长天花板。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 方奕(分析师) 021-38031658 fangyi2@gtht.com S0880520120005 黄维驰(分析师) 021-38032684 huangweich ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The profits of industrial enterprises ended a three-year decline, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 0.6% in 2025, compared to a previous value of 0.1% [4] - December 2025 saw a significant improvement in profit year-on-year, rising by 18.4 percentage points to 5.3%, despite a revenue decline of approximately 3.2% [5][6] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises showed a recovery, with contributions from various factors indicating a positive trend in profitability [7] Group 2: Industry Trends and Recommendations - The heavy truck sales in 2025 exceeded one million units, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 27%, driven by policies encouraging vehicle replacement [59] - The domestic market for new energy heavy trucks saw explosive growth, with sales reaching 231,100 units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 182% [60] - The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities in the heavy truck sector, particularly with companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Foton Motor showing strong performance [62] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The food and beverage sector, particularly companies like Gan Yuan Foods, is expected to see significant growth in Q1 2026 due to seasonal stocking and favorable comparisons to low base figures [16] - The communication sector is poised for growth, with companies like Guanghui New Network benefiting from increased demand for data center services driven by AI developments [17] - The semiconductor industry, represented by companies like Zhongwei Company, is experiencing strong growth in specific segments, such as integrated circuit manufacturing, with year-on-year increases of 172.6% [7] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The report suggests a focus on technology and cyclical sectors, with recommendations for investments in industries such as military, media, AI applications, and renewable energy [10] - The potential for theme-based investments in 2026 is highlighted, with key themes including AI, embodied intelligence, nuclear fusion energy, quantum technology, and brain-computer interfaces [23][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting new themes over old ones to avoid value traps and to capitalize on emerging trends [24]

中国经济网北京1月28日讯 光环新网(300383.SZ)26日发布2025年度业绩预告。经财务部门初步测 算，光环新网预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为亏损73000万元至78000万元，去年 同期为盈利38144.48万元。公司预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净 利润为亏损77000万元至82000万元，去年同期为盈利34638.05万元。公司预计2025年年度营收为71.7 亿元至72.2亿元。 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股 东的净利润 | 亏损:73,000 万元-78,000 万元 | 盈利:38,144.48万元 | | 扣除非经常性损益 后的净利润 | 亏损:77,000万元-82,000万元 | 盈利:34,638.05 万元 | | 营业收入 | 717,000.00 万元-722,000.00 万元 | 728, 121. 03 万元 | | 扣除后营业收入 | 717,000.00 万元-722,000.00 万元 | 728, 121. 03 万元 | 本次计提商誉减 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 18.29 CNY [5][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to turn from profit to loss in 2025, primarily due to significant goodwill impairment related to acquisitions such as Zhongjin Yunwang. Despite short-term pressure on IDC and cloud computing businesses, cabinet deployment is accelerating, and performance is expected to recover rapidly in 2026 [2][9]. - The forecasted revenue for 2025 is between 7.17 billion to 7.22 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year decline of 0.84% to 1.52%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be a loss of 749 million CNY, compared to a profit of 346 million CNY in the previous year [9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is 7,855 million CNY, with a projected decrease to 7,208 million CNY in 2025, followed by a slight recovery to 7,384 million CNY in 2026 and 7,996 million CNY in 2027 [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline from 388 million CNY in 2023 to a loss of 749 million CNY in 2025, with a recovery to 328 million CNY in 2026 and 450 million CNY in 2027 [4][10]. - The company’s net asset return rate is expected to drop to -6.3% in 2025, with a recovery to 2.7% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027 [4][10]. Business Performance - The company is facing challenges in its IDC business due to increased competition and customer retention issues, with a significant number of new cabinets deployed (over 26,000) leading to increased depreciation costs [9]. - The cloud computing segment is also under pressure due to the expiration of specific operational assets and adjustments in customer structure, leading to a projected revenue decrease of approximately 106 million CNY in 2025 [9]. - Despite short-term challenges, the company has significantly increased its cabinet deployment, with over 82,000 cabinets in operation by the end of 2025, and plans for over 230,000 cabinets nationwide, positioning itself to benefit from future demand driven by AI [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the AI sector, particularly the rise of the Zhongzheng AI Theme Index and its constituent stocks, indicating a positive trend in the market [1] - The Zhongzheng AI Theme Index (930713) increased by 0.25%, with notable gains from stocks such as Beijing Junzheng (up 7.93%), Guanghuan Xinnet (up 4.95%), and others [1] - The AI Artificial Intelligence ETF (512930) also saw an increase of 0.38%, with the latest price reported at 2.4 yuan [1] Group 2 - Microsoft has launched its second-generation AI chip, Maia 200, aiming to reduce reliance on Nvidia, with production handled by TSMC and deployment in data centers in Iowa and Phoenix [1] - The chip's control software is now available for developers, although the timeline for Azure cloud service users to access servers based on this chip remains unclear [1] - Microsoft has alternative options for chip designs through its partnership with OpenAI, should internal development face challenges [1] Group 3 - According to GF Securities, the demand for high-frequency random access in vector databases driven by AI agents is significantly increasing, leading to a rise in eSSD capacity requirements for GPUs [2] - The NAND demand growth rate is projected to reach 21% by 2026, while supply constraints due to capital expenditure shifts towards HBM/DRAM are expected to limit capacity expansion [2] - TrendForce forecasts a substantial increase in NAND contract prices, with an annual rise of 105%-110% and a quarterly increase of 55%-60% in Q1 [2] Group 4 - The Zhongzheng AI Theme Index consists of 50 listed companies involved in providing resources, technology, and application support for AI, reflecting the overall performance of AI-related securities [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng AI Theme Index include companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and New Yisheng, accounting for 58.08% of the index [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 18.29 CNY [5][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to turn from profit to loss in 2025, primarily due to significant goodwill impairment related to acquisitions such as Zhongjin Yunwang. Although the IDC and cloud computing businesses are under short-term pressure, the accelerated deployment of cabinets is anticipated to improve performance in 2026 [2][9]. - The company forecasts a revenue of 71.7 to 72.2 billion CNY for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 0.84% to 1.52%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be a loss of 7.7 to 8.2 billion CNY, compared to a profit of 346 million CNY in the previous year [9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 7,855 million CNY in 2023 to 7,208 million CNY in 2025, with a slight recovery to 7,384 million CNY in 2026 and 7,996 million CNY in 2027 [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to drop from 388 million CNY in 2023 to a loss of 749 million CNY in 2025, before recovering to 328 million CNY in 2026 and 450 million CNY in 2027 [4][10]. - The company’s net asset return rate is forecasted to decline to -6.3% in 2025, with a recovery to 2.7% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027 [4][10]. Business Performance - The company has faced challenges in its IDC business due to increased competition and customer retention issues, leading to a higher difficulty in customer acquisition. The company has also seen a significant increase in cabinet deployment, with over 26,000 new cabinets added in 2025, reaching a total of over 82,000 cabinets by the end of the year [9]. - The cloud computing segment is expected to see a revenue decrease of approximately 106 million CNY in 2025 due to the expiration of specific operational assets and adjustments in customer structure [9]. Market Position - The company is positioned within the telecommunications and information technology industry, with a focus on IDC and cloud computing services. The competitive landscape remains challenging, but the company is actively expanding its cabinet deployment to meet future demand driven by AI and computing power needs [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by over 5% compared to the benchmark index in the next 3-6 months [19]. Core Insights - The launch of Clawdbot, an AI assistant capable of taking over devices and performing tasks autonomously, has generated significant market interest, achieving over 50,000 stars on GitHub within days of its release [2][4]. - The report highlights the importance of low-latency and secure infrastructure support for AI agents like Clawdbot, which is expected to benefit companies involved in cloud computing, AI data centers, computing power services, and content delivery networks [8]. Industry Overview - The computer industry consists of 337 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 64,957.50 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 58,620.09 billion [5]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months has been 13.7%, 22.6%, and 42.4% respectively, while the relative performance has been 10.3%, 7.0%, and 19.2% [6]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on companies that provide secure and low-latency infrastructure, including: 1. Cloud computing: Alibaba, NET, Deepin Technology, Kingsoft Cloud, New Idea Network Group, Yuke Data 2. AI Data Centers: Runze Technology, Baoxin Software, Data Port, Guanghuan New Network, Aofei Data, Yunsai Zhili 3. Computing Power Services: Kexin Data, Hongjing Technology, Dawi Technology, Youfang Technology, Litong Electronics, Zhiwei Intelligent 4. CDN: Wangsu Technology 5. Chips: Haiguang Information, Cambricon, Muxi Co., Tian Shuzhixin, Moer Thread, Longxin Zhongke 6. Large Models: Minimax, Zhipu, iFlytek [8].

Group 1 - Naxing Co., Ltd. reached the daily limit increase, while Wangsu Technology surged by 16%, Oulutong rose by 13%, and Capital Online increased by nearly 8% [2] - Other companies such as Yunsai Zhili, Guanghuan Xinwang, and Qingyun Technology also experienced gains [2] Group 2 - The stock prices and percentage changes for several companies are as follows: - Wangsu Technology: 15.81, up 16.77% - Oulutong: 258.59, up 13.45% - Meili Cloud: 14.28, up 10.02% - Naxing Co., Ltd.: 22.72, up 10.02% - Capital Online: 29.02, up 7.92% - Yunsai Zhili: 23.21, up 4.69% - Guanghuan Xinwang: 15.78, up 4.09% - Qingyun Technology: 85.30, up 4.06% [3] Group 3 - Google announced a price adjustment for data transmission methods such as CDN Interconnect, Direct Peering, and Carrier Peering, effective May 1, 2026, with prices in North America doubling [2]

Group 1 - Naxing Co., Ltd. (南兴股份) reached a limit-up, while Wangsu Science & Technology (网宿科技) increased by 16%, Oulu Tong (欧陆通) rose by 13%, and Capital Online (首都在线) gained nearly 8% [2] - Other companies such as Yunzhai Zhili (云寨智联), Guanghuan Xinwang (光环新网), and Qingyun Technology (青云科技) also experienced increases [2] - The stock price changes for notable companies include: Wangsu Science & Technology at 15.81 with a rise of 16.77%, Oulu Tong at 258.59 with a rise of 13.45%, and Naxing Co., Ltd. at 22.72 with a rise of 10.02% [3] Group 2 - Google announced a price adjustment for data transmission methods such as CDN Interconnect, Direct Peering, and Carrier Peering, effective May 1, 2026, with prices in North America doubling [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the AI and cloud computing industry, highlighting the synergy between domestic and international AI developments and the resulting demand for cloud services [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - NVIDIA invested $2 billion in CoreWeave at a price of $87.20 per share, expanding their complementary partnership to support CoreWeave's plan to build an AI factory exceeding 5GW by 2030 [1]. - The AI application era is expected to significantly increase inference demand, allowing cloud providers to optimize computing resource allocation through technological capabilities and economies of scale [1]. - AI demand is driving a comprehensive price increase across the entire computing power supply chain, with AWS raising prices on certain cloud services by 15%, breaking a 20-year trend of only price reductions [1]. - China's advancements in AI are continuously driving demand for cloud computing services [1]. Notable Developments - Alibaba's Qwen3-Max-Thinking flagship inference model was officially launched, significantly enhancing native agent capabilities and improving inference performance and efficiency while greatly reducing hallucinations [1]. - Jieyue Star recently completed over 5 billion yuan in Series B+ financing aimed at foundational model research, indicating that domestic large model development and inference will further boost demand for computing power and cloud services [2]. Related Companies - The call mentions several companies related to cloud services and IDC, including: - YunSai ZhiLian - UCloud - Wangsu Technology - Capital Online - Shunwang Technology - Meili Cloud - Guanghuan New Network - Qingyun Technology - Tongniu Information - Dataport - Kehua Data - Runze Technology - Aofei Data - Chengdi Xiangjiang - Parallel Technology [3]. - Alibaba-related companies mentioned include Guangyun Technology and Shiji Information [3].