郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 今日重点推荐 2025 年 12 月 23 日 人民币升值，"结汇潮"的助推——汇率双周报系列之六 10 月中旬以来，美元小幅贬值背景下、人民币大幅升值；这一非对称的涨 势引发了市场对"年终结汇"的热议。本轮升值是不是结汇推动、后续人 民币汇率的可能演绎？本文分析，供参考。 | 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3917 | 0.69 | 2.15 | 1.28 | | 深证综指 | 2493 | 1.13 | 5.16 | 1.56 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.86 | 3.48 | 20.31 | | 中盘指数 | 1.42 | 6.66 | 29.76 | | 小盘指数 | 1.12 | 5.06 | 25.03 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | ...

证券日报网讯12月22日，宝武镁业（002182）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年12月19 日，公司的股东户数为56247户。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Baowu Magnesium Industry (002182) indicates that since the release of the new national standard, companies in the electric vehicle supply chain have rapidly initiated the replacement of plastic parts with magnesium alloys, leading to a significant increase in magnesium usage in electric two-wheelers during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The usage of magnesium alloys in electric bicycles is expected to continue to rise quickly, driven by new national standards, lightweight demands, and technological advancements [1] - Leading companies in the electric bicycle sector, such as Aima, Yadi, and Niu, have begun to actively incorporate magnesium alloy materials in components like wheels and frames [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The increasing penetration rate and expansion of application components suggest that the market for magnesium alloys in electric two-wheelers will experience substantial growth in the coming years, indicating a broad market prospect [1]

Group 1 - Baowu Magnesium announced that on December 19, 2025, it will accept investor research from Ping An Securities and others, with the company's Secretary of the Board, Wu Jianfei, participating in the reception and answering investor questions [1] Group 2 - The new energy heavy truck market has seen a significant surge, with November sales increasing by 178% year-on-year, indicating a strong demand that has led to supply shortages, with customers directly urging factories for orders [1]

Company Overview - Baowu Magnesium Industry Technology Co., Ltd. was established in 1993 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2007, evolving into a high-tech enterprise integrating mining, non-ferrous metal smelting, and recycling processing [1] - The company specializes in the production and deep processing of magnesium and aluminum alloy materials, with key products including magnesium alloys, aluminum alloy die-castings, and aluminum extrusions [1] - The complete industry chain from mining to recycling enhances product cost structure and risk resilience, ensuring stable product supply to customers [1] Market Demand and Trends - Following the new national standard, there has been a significant increase in the demand for magnesium alloys in the electric bicycle sector, with major companies like Aima, Yadea, and Niu adopting magnesium alloy components [2] - The usage of magnesium in electric two-wheelers is expected to continue rising rapidly during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, driven by policy changes, lightweight demands, and technological advancements [2] Cost and Technology Advantages - There is potential for a decrease in processing costs for semi-solid technology, primarily due to the reduction in equipment prices and improved production efficiency [2] - The company has developed mature process control solutions for thin-walled components, utilizing unique temperature control designs and advanced filling techniques to mitigate defects [2] Comprehensive Design Solutions - The company provides comprehensive design solutions for lightweight applications in the automotive sector, focusing on the needs arising from the rise of new energy vehicles [3] - The strategy includes a collaborative service approach, selecting materials based on performance requirements, such as magnesium for lightweight parts, aluminum for strength, and steel for load-bearing structures [3]

宜安科技公告，宝武镁业拟通过上海联合产权交易所公开挂牌转让其持有的宜安云海40.00%股权，挂 牌价格不低于1.16亿元。公司已召开董事会，审议通过放弃优先购买权议案。此举旨在引进可持续发展 的合作方，充分发挥公司在镁铝合金、液态金属新材料领域的技术优势。本次放弃优先购买权不会导致 公司持有宜安云海股权比例变化，不会影响公司合并财务报表范围，不会对公司持续经营能力、财务状 况产生重大影响。 ...

Group 1: Metal Industry Overview - The metal industry is experiencing a significant optimization in supply-demand structure, with a weak supply cycle expected to continue until 2028, characterized by rigid supply and vertical expansion in the industry chain [2] - The transition to a liquidity cycle is anticipated to enhance the elasticity of metal prices, with a shift from a tightening to a loosening monetary policy expected to normalize by 2026, potentially driving liquidity premiums for small metal varieties [2] - The report predicts that small metals such as rare earths, lithium, and others will see improved fundamentals and price elasticity due to ongoing supply-demand optimization and liquidity effects [2] Group 2: Lithium Industry Insights - The lithium supply is projected to increase from 123.1 thousand tons LCE in 2024 to 186 thousand tons LCE by 2027, with a CAGR of 15% [1][7] - The production of lithium from salt lakes is expected to rise significantly, with output increasing from 47.5 thousand tons LCE in 2024 to 84 thousand tons LCE in 2027, representing a CAGR of 21% [1][7] - Demand for lithium is driven by the growth of electric vehicles and energy storage systems, with total lithium battery shipments expected to rise from 1,545 GWh in 2024 to 2,778 GWh by 2027, leading to a demand increase from 103 thousand tons to 184 thousand tons of lithium [7] Group 3: Rare Earth Industry Developments - The rare earth industry is undergoing a structural optimization, with supply growth slowing down due to regulatory changes and industry consolidation, while demand is increasing from sectors like electric vehicles and robotics [3] - The export control of rare earths has become a strategic tool in the US-China trade conflict, enhancing China's pricing power in the global market [3] - The supply growth rate for rare earth mining is expected to decrease significantly in 2024, indicating a tightening supply situation [3] Group 4: Rubidium and Cesium Market Expansion - The global rubidium and cesium market is entering a rapid expansion phase, with supply expected to grow significantly due to increased production capacity from key players [5] - Demand for rubidium and cesium is projected to rise sharply, driven by upgrades in existing consumption structures and emerging applications in solar energy [5] - The combined demand for rubidium and cesium is forecasted to increase from 2,466 tons in 2025 to 4,600 tons by 2027, with a CAGR of 36.6% [5] Group 5: Antimony Market Dynamics - The antimony industry is entering a strong growth cycle due to supply constraints from mine closures and environmental regulations, while demand is increasing from the photovoltaic sector [8] - The global antimony supply gap is expected to widen significantly from 2024 to 2027, indicating a bullish outlook for antimony prices [8] - The demand growth rate for antimony is projected to reach a CAGR of 11% during the forecast period [8] Group 6: Molybdenum Supply and Demand - The global supply of molybdenum is expected to grow slowly, with an increase from 273 thousand tons to 292 thousand tons from 2020 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of only 1.6% [9] - Demand for molybdenum is anticipated to rise due to the high-end and green transformation of the steel industry, with a projected CAGR of 3.8% from 2024 to 2027 [9] - The tight supply-demand balance in the molybdenum market is likely to push prices upward, benefiting related companies [9] Group 7: Magnesium Industry Outlook - The magnesium industry is expected to enter a state of sustained tight balance, with global production projected to increase from 1.12 million tons to 2 million tons from 2024 to 2027 [11] - Demand for magnesium is anticipated to grow significantly due to trends in automotive lightweighting and other emerging applications [11] - The supply-demand gap for magnesium is expected to remain tight, indicating a potential recovery in pricing and profitability for magnesium producers [11]

Economic News - In November, Shanghai's import and export value reached 387.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, with exports at 186.6 billion yuan, up 18.2%, marking a monthly historical high [1] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that China and Europe are negotiating on electric vehicle issues, with China willing to resolve differences through dialogue [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics released unemployment rates for November, showing a youth unemployment rate of 16.9% for ages 16-24 and 7.2% for ages 25-29 [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to optimize investment structure and maintain stable growth in traditional sectors while fostering new investment growth [1] - Yantai, Shandong, announced the discovery of Asia's largest underwater gold mine with proven reserves of over 39,000 tons, accounting for 26% of the national total [1] - The China Meteorological Administration aims to establish an advanced earth system forecasting system by 2035 [1] - The Sichuan Provincial Government plans to form a diversified R&D investment pattern by 2027, targeting a R&D investment intensity of 2.5% [1] - The People's Bank of China completed three financial preparations for Hainan Free Trade Port, enhancing cross-border financial risk prevention capabilities [1] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association reported a total export value of photovoltaic products at $24.42 billion from January to October 2025, a decrease of 13.2% year-on-year, but a significant improvement from the previous year's decline [1] - The Hubei Provincial Government is advancing the asset reform of state-owned water resources [1] Important Company News - China National Airlines' subsidiary Shenzhen Airlines plans to raise 16 billion yuan through equity financing [2] Metal Industry Outlook - The metal industry is experiencing an optimization in supply-demand structure, with a weak supply cycle expected to continue until 2028, while demand is anticipated to rise due to green energy transitions and new productivity developments [5] - The liquidity cycle shift is expected to enhance metal price elasticity, with small metals projected to see significant price and valuation increases due to supply-demand improvements and liquidity premiums [5] - Small metals like rare earths, rubidium, cesium, lithium, antimony, molybdenum, and magnesium are highlighted for their potential in terms of supply-demand dynamics and future trends [5] Rare Earth Industry - The rare earth industry is undergoing a supply-demand optimization, with supply growth slowing and demand increasing due to sectors like electric vehicles and robotics [6] - The introduction of export controls has redefined the value of the rare earth industry, enhancing China's global pricing power [6] - Related companies include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and others [7] Rubidium and Cesium Market - The global rubidium and cesium market is entering a rapid expansion phase, with significant supply growth expected from companies like Zhongmin Resources and Jinyin Galaxy [8] - Demand is projected to grow significantly due to upgrades in consumption structures and emerging applications [8] - Related companies include Zhongmin Resources and Jinyin Galaxy [9] Lithium Industry - The lithium supply-demand relationship is expected to improve, with supply growth driven by low-cost production in South America and increasing demand from the electric vehicle sector [10] - Global lithium supply is projected to grow from 1.231 million tons LCE in 2024 to 1.86 million tons LCE by 2027, with a CAGR of 15% [10] - Related companies include Zhongmin Resources, Jinyin Galaxy, Tianqi Lithium, and others [11] Antimony Industry - The antimony industry is entering a strong growth cycle due to supply constraints and increasing demand from the photovoltaic sector [11] - The global antimony supply-demand gap is expected to widen, leading to price increases and enhanced profitability for related companies [11] - Related companies include Huayu Mining, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Hunan Gold [12] Molybdenum Industry - The molybdenum market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with prices projected to rise due to increased demand from high-end steel and aerospace sectors [12] - Global molybdenum supply is expected to grow slowly, with demand projected to increase at a CAGR of 3.8% [12] - Related companies include Luoyang Molybdenum, Jintong Molybdenum, and Western Mining [13] Magnesium Industry - The magnesium industry is entering a state of sustained balance, with significant demand growth expected from sectors like automotive lightweighting and renewable energy [14] - Global magnesium demand is projected to grow from 1.12 million tons in 2024 to 2 million tons by 2027, with a CAGR of 21% [14] - Related companies include Baowu Magnesium, Xingyuan Zhuomai, and Wanfu Aoxian [15]

Group 1 - The metal industry is experiencing a significant optimization in its supply-demand structure, with a weak supply cycle expected to continue until 2028, characterized by strong rigidity and vertical diffusion in the industry chain [5][24][25] - The transition to a liquidity cycle is anticipated to enhance the elasticity of metal prices, as global monetary policy shifts from a tightening to a loosening phase, with central bank balance sheet expansion likely to provide liquidity premiums for small metal varieties [5][49][50] - The report highlights that small metals such as rare earths, rubidium, cesium, lithium, antimony, molybdenum, and magnesium are expected to see improved fundamentals and price elasticity due to the optimized supply-demand structure and liquidity premiums [5][23] Group 2 - The rare earth industry is undergoing a structural optimization, with supply entering an accelerated improvement phase due to industry consolidation and regulatory changes, while demand is driven by sectors like electric vehicles and robotics [6][23] - The global rubidium and cesium market is entering a rapid expansion phase, with supply expected to grow significantly due to increased production capacity, while demand is driven by upgrades in consumption structure and emerging applications [7][8][23] - The lithium industry is projected to see a continuous improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with global lithium supply expected to grow from 1.231 million tons LCE in 2024 to 1.86 million tons LCE in 2027, driven by the growth of electric vehicles and energy storage systems [9][23] - Antimony is entering a strong prosperity cycle due to supply constraints and robust demand growth from the photovoltaic sector, with a widening supply-demand gap expected to push prices higher [10][23] - Molybdenum supply is expected to remain tight, with demand driven by the high-end transformation of the steel industry, leading to an upward price trend [11][23] - The magnesium industry is anticipated to enter a sustained tight balance state, with significant demand growth driven by automotive lightweighting and other emerging applications [12][23]

数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 2025年1-10月，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业企业数（以下数据涉及的企业，均为规模以上工业企业，从 2011年起，规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务收入2000万 元）为10834个，和上年同期相比，增加了631个，同比增长6.18%，占工业总企业的比重为2.07%。 2016-2025年1-10月有色金属冶炼和压延加工业企业数统计图 上市公司：焦作万方（000612），铜陵有色（000630），合金投资（000633），中钨高新（000657）， 国城矿业（000688），北方铜业（000737），常铝股份（002160），东方锆业（002167），楚江新材 （002171），宝武镁业（002182），融捷股份（002192），海亮股份（002203） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《20 ...