首席周观点：2026 年第 8 周 2026 年 2 月 26 日 首席观点 周度观点 张天丰 | 东兴证券金属首席分析师 S1480520100001，021-25102914，Zhang_tf@dxzq.net.cn 金属行业：小金属板块估值及收益弹性显现释放 DONGXING SECURITIES 东兴证券研究报告 首席周观点：2026年第8周 P1 金属行业的供需结构明显优化。从供给端观察，金属行业上游已处于弱供给周期，全球矿业 的供给状态在 2028 年前或延续强刚性化特征并且已显现产业链环节的垂直化扩散。从需求 端观察，绿色低碳能源转型、新质生产力发展及算力资本周期的来临或将提振多金属品种需 求曲线右移。 流动性周期的切换有助于金属价格的弹性释放。尽管 2025 年全球货币政策已由紧缩周期转 向宽松周期，但降息缩表的操作方式或将在 2026 年逐渐常态化，全球央行资产负债表的再扩 张或推动本就供需状态紧平衡的小金属品种获得流动性溢价。本文，我们将对稀土、铷铯、 锂、锑、钼和镁等小金属品种的基本面状态进行供需梳理和未来变化趋势的预测。我们认为， 金属行业的供需结构优化及流动性溢价或再次提振小金属板块 ...

BESS采购合同的代价与市场上其他公司提供类似的储能系统设备/组件采购及辅助服务所收取的现行市 价相符。董事认为，BESS采购合同的代价及其相关条款均不逊于本集团向独立第三方收取的代价及条 款。 中国电力(02380)发布公告，于2026年2月5日，新源智储(本公司一家非全资拥有的附属公司)，作为供应 方，与托里公司订立了一份BESS采购合同，新源智储将为塔城项目提供储能系统设备和组件以及其相 关服务，代价人民币4.52亿元(约相等于5.079亿港元)。 为塔城项目提供与储能系统相关的设备、备品和服务，将可使新源智储在储能领域同时获得市场份额及 积存实力，有利于本集团打造全方位新能源供应链，符合本集团向绿色低碳能源供应商和服务供应商转 型的战略目标。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Power (02380) has announced a total contract worth RMB 199 million for the desulfurization system project with Dazhou Energy, which will enhance its market share in the flue gas treatment sector and support its transition to a green low-carbon energy supplier [1][2] Group 1: Contract Details - The contract includes system design, equipment procurement, construction installation, commissioning, completion certification, training, performance quality assurance, and follow-up services during the defect liability period [1] - The defect liability period lasts for one year after the last system unit completes its 168-hour full-load trial operation [1] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - The contract price aligns with current market rates for similar desulfurization services provided by other companies [2] - The board believes that the terms of the contract are competitive compared to those offered by independent third parties [2]

Group 1 - The A-share non-ferrous metal sector experienced a significant rebound after an initial drop, with the non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) rising over 3% in the afternoon session, completing an adjustment with a net subscription of 1 million shares, amounting to over 200 million CNY [1] - The trading volume exceeded 800 million CNY, with a turnover rate surpassing 10%, indicating active market participation [1] - Key stocks in the sector saw substantial gains, with companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Northern Copper, and Shenghe Resources hitting the daily limit, while Jiangxi Copper and Yunnan Copper rose over 7% and 9% respectively [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) attracted significant capital inflow, with over 480 million CNY in the last 5 days and over 1.5 billion CNY in the last 20 days, bringing its total scale to 7.348 billion CNY [2] - The precious metals market remains strong, with COMEX gold prices surpassing 5600 USD, reaching a record high, and the Shanghai gold futures contract breaking through the 1200 CNY per gram mark, with a monthly increase of over 25% [2] - The metal industry is entering a weak supply cycle, with global mining supply expected to remain rigid until 2028, while demand is anticipated to rise due to green energy transitions and new production capabilities [2]

东兴证券指出，金属行业供需结构明显优化，行业已处于弱供给周期。在供给端，全球矿业供给在2028 年前或延续强刚性化特征。需求端，绿色低碳能源转型、新质生产力发展及算力资本周期的来临或将提 振多金属品种需求曲线右移。具体来看，稀土行业供需结构持续优化，供给端受行业整合与政策管理而 收缩，需求端受新能源汽车、机器人等推动持续增长，出口管制政策或持续提升中国稀土行业的全球定 价权。锂行业供需关系或持续改善，供应过剩状况预计将持续减缓。锑行业因供需错配或进入强景气周 期，全球锑供需缺口预计将持续放大。钼行业供需延续紧平衡，价格中枢有望上行。镁行业供需或进入 持续性紧平衡状态，"反内卷"政策或有望向该行业扩散。此外，流动性周期的切换有助于金属价格的弹 性释放，全球央行资产负债表的再扩张或推动本就供需紧平衡的小金属品种获得流动性溢价。 1月29日，有色60ETF（159881）涨超3%，连续4日迎资金净流入，金属行业供需结构明显优化。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建 ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market opened with most contracts rising, with notable increases in gold (over 7%), silver (over 4%), and fuel (nearly 3%) [1] - The industrial non-ferrous ETF WanJia (560860) saw a significant increase of 4.03%, reaching a historical high, with a trading volume of 290 million [1] - The ETF has attracted substantial capital inflows, with a total of over 6.9 billion yuan in net inflows over the past five days, and over 46 billion yuan in the last 20 days [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation pressures are primarily due to tariffs rather than demand factors, leading to a significant rise in gold prices, which surpassed 5400 USD [3] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw most base metals rise, with tin increasing by 3.52% to 56,795 USD/ton, aluminum by 1.59% to 3,263.5 USD/ton, and copper by 0.74% to 13,120 USD/ton [3] - The metal industry is entering a weak supply cycle, with global mining supply expected to maintain strong rigidity until 2028, while demand is anticipated to increase due to green energy transitions and new production capabilities [3] Group 3 - The industrial non-ferrous ETF WanJia (560860) closely tracks the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index, covering strategic resources such as copper, aluminum, and rare earths [4] - Investors can access this ETF through linked classes (A class: 018489; C class: 018490) to capitalize on cyclical and policy-driven opportunities [4]

1月28日，有色60ETF（159881）收涨超7%，金属价格上行与供需格局变化利好。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 东兴证券指出，金属行业已进入弱供给周期，全球矿业供给在2028年前或延续强刚性化特征。从需 求端观察，绿色低碳能源转型、新质生产力发展及算力资本周期的来临或将提振多金属品种需求曲线右 移。流动性周期的切换有助于金属价格的弹性释放，全球央行资产负债表的再扩张或推动本就供需状态 紧平衡的小金属品种获得流动性溢价。具体来看，稀土行业供需结构持续优化，供给端受政策管控增速 放缓，需求端受新能源汽车、机器人等推动持续增长，行业迎来价值重估。锂行业供需关系或持续改 善，供应过剩状况预计持续减缓。锑行业因供需错配进入强景气周期，全球锑供需缺口或持续放大。 镁、钼等品种的供需亦呈现紧平衡状态，有望推动价格中枢上行及行业盈利修复。 有色60ETF（159 ...

● 相关风险提示：该基金尚需取得中国证券投资基金业协会备案后方可实施。投资过程中可能存在因决 策或行业环境发生重大变化，导致投资项目不能实现预期收益、无法及时有效退出等风险。敬请广大投 资者注意投资风险。 一、投资设立基金概述 为满足公司战略发展需求及产业联动效应，进一步夯实储能领域的定位和布局，持续深化绿色、低碳、 可持续的能源体系转型，公司拟与管理人天津滨海新区新兴产业基金管理有限公司（以下简称"新兴基 管"）及其他合伙人天津滨海新能源投资管理有限公司（以下简称"滨海新能源"）、深圳市元科慧储投 资有限公司（以下简称"元科慧储"）共同投资设立储能基金并签订合伙协议，基金将主要对新型储能场 景及产业链上下游优质项目进行投资。基金目标总规模为人民币20亿元，初始规模5亿元，公司拟作为 有限合伙人认缴出资2.49亿元，持有合伙企业49.80%的份额比例。 天津滨海新区建设投资集团有限公司（以下简称"滨海建投"）系滨海新能源的控股公司，作为天津市国 资委全资企业，滨海建投拥有领先的资产实力，优质的资信水平，也沉淀了丰富的地方资源和产业储 备。公司与滨海建投共同发起设立储能基金，不仅可以助力储能上下游产业投资，打通 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that China's asset value has significant room for revaluation, with the stock market expected to experience a slow bull market in 2025, driven by the transition from old to new economic drivers and the increasing share of the tertiary industry [6] - The report highlights that the liquidity environment is expected to remain supportive for the stock market in 2026, with potential interest rate cuts in China and a narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the US [7] - The report anticipates a turning point in corporate earnings and valuations in the A-share market, with a projected profit growth rate of around 12% in 2026 [8] Economic News - The report notes that retail sales in various sectors, including home appliances and tourism, have shown significant year-on-year growth, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [2] - The People's Bank of China has announced measures to enhance offshore RMB liquidity, which may positively impact market confidence and investment [2] - The report mentions that foreign direct investment in China has increased, particularly in high-tech industries, reflecting a positive trend in attracting foreign capital [2] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the ongoing transformation of China's manufacturing sector, with a shift towards high-value-added services and technology-driven industries, which is expected to enhance the profitability of Chinese assets [6] - The report highlights the expected growth in the lithium industry, driven by the demand for electric vehicles and energy storage systems, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% for lithium demand from 2024 to 2027 [21] - The report indicates that the rare earth industry is undergoing a structural optimization, with supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy, which may lead to price increases and improved profitability for related companies [17][18] Company Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for 2026, including Torch Electronics, which is expected to benefit from improving industry conditions, and Guoli Electronics, which has a strong position in the semiconductor and new energy sectors [13] - Other recommended companies include Huace Navigation, which is poised to benefit from the Beidou satellite system, and Kingsoft Office, which is expected to see growth in its software business [13][14] - The report also highlights the potential of companies in the lithium and rare earth sectors, such as Zhongmin Resources and Jinyang Salt, due to the anticipated growth in demand for these materials [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing Energy International (00686) plans to acquire 70% equity of Yangzhou Tairun New Energy Power Development Co., Ltd. for approximately RMB 371 million (including tax) [1][3] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition is set to be completed by December 22, 2025 [1][3] - The target project has an installed capacity of approximately 460 megawatts [1][3] Group 2: Strategic Alignment - The board believes the acquisition aligns with the company's development strategy and provides an opportunity to expand its clean energy portfolio [1][3] - The move is consistent with the macro trend towards a green low-carbon energy system and aligns with China's 14th Five-Year Plan goals [1][3] Group 3: Operational and Financial Impact - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's operational scale and asset base, generating potential operational synergies through effective resource allocation [1][3] - The geographical proximity of the target project to the company's existing photovoltaic project in Gaoyou, Jiangsu Province, is anticipated to improve project management and overall generation capacity, thereby enhancing profitability [1][3]