数据显示，有色ETF汇添富（159652）备受资金青睐，近5日"吸金"超4.8亿，近20日"吸金"超15亿；最 新规模达73.48亿元！ 指数成份股掀起涨停潮，铜陵有色、北方铜业、盛和资源、湖南黄金、白银有色、西部黄金等涨停，紫 金矿业、山东黄金涨超2%，洛阳钼业、中国铝业涨超3%，江西铜业涨超7%，云南铜业涨超9%。 1月29日，A股有色板块走出深蹲反弹形态，早盘一度跌超3%，随后展开凌厉反弹！有色ETF汇添富 （159652）午后再度涨超3%，日内完成调整，盘中获净申购达1亿份，按盘中成交均价计算，净申购金 额已超2亿元！盘中成交额超8亿，换手率超10%，市场交投活跃！ 消息面上，美联储暂缓降息，但市场普遍押注美联储新任货币政策掌舵人或将在今年晚些时候更倾向于 采取更多宽松政策。贵金属市场延续强势，COMEX黄金价格一度突破5600美元关口，创纪录新高！沪 金主力合约强势突破1200元/克整数关口，现报1244.8元/克，续创历史新高，本月累涨超25%。 | 2.260 +0.044 +1.99% | | | | 有色ETF汇添富 | 水 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

东兴证券指出，金属行业供需结构明显优化，行业已处于弱供给周期。在供给端，全球矿业供给在2028 年前或延续强刚性化特征。需求端，绿色低碳能源转型、新质生产力发展及算力资本周期的来临或将提 振多金属品种需求曲线右移。具体来看，稀土行业供需结构持续优化，供给端受行业整合与政策管理而 收缩，需求端受新能源汽车、机器人等推动持续增长，出口管制政策或持续提升中国稀土行业的全球定 价权。锂行业供需关系或持续改善，供应过剩状况预计将持续减缓。锑行业因供需错配或进入强景气周 期，全球锑供需缺口预计将持续放大。钼行业供需延续紧平衡，价格中枢有望上行。镁行业供需或进入 持续性紧平衡状态，"反内卷"政策或有望向该行业扩散。此外，流动性周期的切换有助于金属价格的弹 性释放，全球央行资产负债表的再扩张或推动本就供需紧平衡的小金属品种获得流动性溢价。 1月29日，有色60ETF（159881）涨超3%，连续4日迎资金净流入，金属行业供需结构明显优化。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建 ...

1月29日，国内商品期货开盘多数上涨，沪金涨超7%，沪银涨超4%，燃油涨近3%，氧化铝、沪铝涨超 2%。有色金属板块强势拉升，白银有色8连板，中国黄金5连板，铜陵有色逼近涨停，兴业银锡涨超 8%，云南铜业涨超6%。截至9：35，工业有色ETF万家（560860）开盘大涨4.03%，创历史新高！成交 额达2.9亿，交投活跃。 工业有色ETF万家（560860）备受资金青睐，资金连续5日净流入，合计"吸金"超6.9亿元，近10日"吸 金"超11亿，近20日"吸金"超46亿元。截至1月28日，该基金最新规模攀升至164.78亿元，一举突破160 亿大关！ | 近5日净流入 | | | 单位(万元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 22506 | | | 24411 | | | | 15322 | | | | 6011 | | | | | 1391 | | | | 1-22 | 1-23 1-26 | 1-27 | 1-28 | | 天数 | 净流天 | 净流额 | 净流率 | | 5 | 5 | 69642 | 5.04% | | 10 | 0 | 118700 | 9.14% | | ...

1月28日，有色60ETF（159881）收涨超7%，金属价格上行与供需格局变化利好。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 东兴证券指出，金属行业已进入弱供给周期，全球矿业供给在2028年前或延续强刚性化特征。从需 求端观察，绿色低碳能源转型、新质生产力发展及算力资本周期的来临或将提振多金属品种需求曲线右 移。流动性周期的切换有助于金属价格的弹性释放，全球央行资产负债表的再扩张或推动本就供需状态 紧平衡的小金属品种获得流动性溢价。具体来看，稀土行业供需结构持续优化，供给端受政策管控增速 放缓，需求端受新能源汽车、机器人等推动持续增长，行业迎来价值重估。锂行业供需关系或持续改 善，供应过剩状况预计持续减缓。锑行业因供需错配进入强景气周期，全球锑供需缺口或持续放大。 镁、钼等品种的供需亦呈现紧平衡状态，有望推动价格中枢上行及行业盈利修复。 有色60ETF（159 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that China's asset value has significant room for revaluation, with the stock market expected to experience a slow bull market in 2025, driven by the transition from old to new economic drivers and the increasing share of the tertiary industry [6] - The report highlights that the liquidity environment is expected to remain supportive for the stock market in 2026, with potential interest rate cuts in China and a narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the US [7] - The report anticipates a turning point in corporate earnings and valuations in the A-share market, with a projected profit growth rate of around 12% in 2026 [8] Economic News - The report notes that retail sales in various sectors, including home appliances and tourism, have shown significant year-on-year growth, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [2] - The People's Bank of China has announced measures to enhance offshore RMB liquidity, which may positively impact market confidence and investment [2] - The report mentions that foreign direct investment in China has increased, particularly in high-tech industries, reflecting a positive trend in attracting foreign capital [2] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the ongoing transformation of China's manufacturing sector, with a shift towards high-value-added services and technology-driven industries, which is expected to enhance the profitability of Chinese assets [6] - The report highlights the expected growth in the lithium industry, driven by the demand for electric vehicles and energy storage systems, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% for lithium demand from 2024 to 2027 [21] - The report indicates that the rare earth industry is undergoing a structural optimization, with supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy, which may lead to price increases and improved profitability for related companies [17][18] Company Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for 2026, including Torch Electronics, which is expected to benefit from improving industry conditions, and Guoli Electronics, which has a strong position in the semiconductor and new energy sectors [13] - Other recommended companies include Huace Navigation, which is poised to benefit from the Beidou satellite system, and Kingsoft Office, which is expected to see growth in its software business [13][14] - The report also highlights the potential of companies in the lithium and rare earth sectors, such as Zhongmin Resources and Jinyang Salt, due to the anticipated growth in demand for these materials [20][21]

Group 1: Metal Industry Overview - The metal industry is experiencing a significant optimization in supply-demand structure, with a weak supply cycle expected to continue until 2028, characterized by rigid supply and vertical expansion in the industry chain [2] - The transition to a liquidity cycle is anticipated to enhance the elasticity of metal prices, with a shift from a tightening to a loosening monetary policy expected to normalize by 2026, potentially driving liquidity premiums for small metal varieties [2] - The report predicts that small metals such as rare earths, lithium, and others will see improved fundamentals and price elasticity due to ongoing supply-demand optimization and liquidity effects [2] Group 2: Lithium Industry Insights - The lithium supply is projected to increase from 123.1 thousand tons LCE in 2024 to 186 thousand tons LCE by 2027, with a CAGR of 15% [1][7] - The production of lithium from salt lakes is expected to rise significantly, with output increasing from 47.5 thousand tons LCE in 2024 to 84 thousand tons LCE in 2027, representing a CAGR of 21% [1][7] - Demand for lithium is driven by the growth of electric vehicles and energy storage systems, with total lithium battery shipments expected to rise from 1,545 GWh in 2024 to 2,778 GWh by 2027, leading to a demand increase from 103 thousand tons to 184 thousand tons of lithium [7] Group 3: Rare Earth Industry Developments - The rare earth industry is undergoing a structural optimization, with supply growth slowing down due to regulatory changes and industry consolidation, while demand is increasing from sectors like electric vehicles and robotics [3] - The export control of rare earths has become a strategic tool in the US-China trade conflict, enhancing China's pricing power in the global market [3] - The supply growth rate for rare earth mining is expected to decrease significantly in 2024, indicating a tightening supply situation [3] Group 4: Rubidium and Cesium Market Expansion - The global rubidium and cesium market is entering a rapid expansion phase, with supply expected to grow significantly due to increased production capacity from key players [5] - Demand for rubidium and cesium is projected to rise sharply, driven by upgrades in existing consumption structures and emerging applications in solar energy [5] - The combined demand for rubidium and cesium is forecasted to increase from 2,466 tons in 2025 to 4,600 tons by 2027, with a CAGR of 36.6% [5] Group 5: Antimony Market Dynamics - The antimony industry is entering a strong growth cycle due to supply constraints from mine closures and environmental regulations, while demand is increasing from the photovoltaic sector [8] - The global antimony supply gap is expected to widen significantly from 2024 to 2027, indicating a bullish outlook for antimony prices [8] - The demand growth rate for antimony is projected to reach a CAGR of 11% during the forecast period [8] Group 6: Molybdenum Supply and Demand - The global supply of molybdenum is expected to grow slowly, with an increase from 273 thousand tons to 292 thousand tons from 2020 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of only 1.6% [9] - Demand for molybdenum is anticipated to rise due to the high-end and green transformation of the steel industry, with a projected CAGR of 3.8% from 2024 to 2027 [9] - The tight supply-demand balance in the molybdenum market is likely to push prices upward, benefiting related companies [9] Group 7: Magnesium Industry Outlook - The magnesium industry is expected to enter a state of sustained tight balance, with global production projected to increase from 1.12 million tons to 2 million tons from 2024 to 2027 [11] - Demand for magnesium is anticipated to grow significantly due to trends in automotive lightweighting and other emerging applications [11] - The supply-demand gap for magnesium is expected to remain tight, indicating a potential recovery in pricing and profitability for magnesium producers [11]

Economic News - In November, Shanghai's import and export value reached 387.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, with exports at 186.6 billion yuan, up 18.2%, marking a monthly historical high [1] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that China and Europe are negotiating on electric vehicle issues, with China willing to resolve differences through dialogue [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics released unemployment rates for November, showing a youth unemployment rate of 16.9% for ages 16-24 and 7.2% for ages 25-29 [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to optimize investment structure and maintain stable growth in traditional sectors while fostering new investment growth [1] - Yantai, Shandong, announced the discovery of Asia's largest underwater gold mine with proven reserves of over 39,000 tons, accounting for 26% of the national total [1] - The China Meteorological Administration aims to establish an advanced earth system forecasting system by 2035 [1] - The Sichuan Provincial Government plans to form a diversified R&D investment pattern by 2027, targeting a R&D investment intensity of 2.5% [1] - The People's Bank of China completed three financial preparations for Hainan Free Trade Port, enhancing cross-border financial risk prevention capabilities [1] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association reported a total export value of photovoltaic products at $24.42 billion from January to October 2025, a decrease of 13.2% year-on-year, but a significant improvement from the previous year's decline [1] - The Hubei Provincial Government is advancing the asset reform of state-owned water resources [1] Important Company News - China National Airlines' subsidiary Shenzhen Airlines plans to raise 16 billion yuan through equity financing [2] Metal Industry Outlook - The metal industry is experiencing an optimization in supply-demand structure, with a weak supply cycle expected to continue until 2028, while demand is anticipated to rise due to green energy transitions and new productivity developments [5] - The liquidity cycle shift is expected to enhance metal price elasticity, with small metals projected to see significant price and valuation increases due to supply-demand improvements and liquidity premiums [5] - Small metals like rare earths, rubidium, cesium, lithium, antimony, molybdenum, and magnesium are highlighted for their potential in terms of supply-demand dynamics and future trends [5] Rare Earth Industry - The rare earth industry is undergoing a supply-demand optimization, with supply growth slowing and demand increasing due to sectors like electric vehicles and robotics [6] - The introduction of export controls has redefined the value of the rare earth industry, enhancing China's global pricing power [6] - Related companies include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and others [7] Rubidium and Cesium Market - The global rubidium and cesium market is entering a rapid expansion phase, with significant supply growth expected from companies like Zhongmin Resources and Jinyin Galaxy [8] - Demand is projected to grow significantly due to upgrades in consumption structures and emerging applications [8] - Related companies include Zhongmin Resources and Jinyin Galaxy [9] Lithium Industry - The lithium supply-demand relationship is expected to improve, with supply growth driven by low-cost production in South America and increasing demand from the electric vehicle sector [10] - Global lithium supply is projected to grow from 1.231 million tons LCE in 2024 to 1.86 million tons LCE by 2027, with a CAGR of 15% [10] - Related companies include Zhongmin Resources, Jinyin Galaxy, Tianqi Lithium, and others [11] Antimony Industry - The antimony industry is entering a strong growth cycle due to supply constraints and increasing demand from the photovoltaic sector [11] - The global antimony supply-demand gap is expected to widen, leading to price increases and enhanced profitability for related companies [11] - Related companies include Huayu Mining, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Hunan Gold [12] Molybdenum Industry - The molybdenum market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with prices projected to rise due to increased demand from high-end steel and aerospace sectors [12] - Global molybdenum supply is expected to grow slowly, with demand projected to increase at a CAGR of 3.8% [12] - Related companies include Luoyang Molybdenum, Jintong Molybdenum, and Western Mining [13] Magnesium Industry - The magnesium industry is entering a state of sustained balance, with significant demand growth expected from sectors like automotive lightweighting and renewable energy [14] - Global magnesium demand is projected to grow from 1.12 million tons in 2024 to 2 million tons by 2027, with a CAGR of 21% [14] - Related companies include Baowu Magnesium, Xingyuan Zhuomai, and Wanfu Aoxian [15]

Group 1 - The metal industry is experiencing a significant optimization in its supply-demand structure, with a weak supply cycle expected to continue until 2028, characterized by strong rigidity and vertical diffusion in the industry chain [5][24][25] - The transition to a liquidity cycle is anticipated to enhance the elasticity of metal prices, as global monetary policy shifts from a tightening to a loosening phase, with central bank balance sheet expansion likely to provide liquidity premiums for small metal varieties [5][49][50] - The report highlights that small metals such as rare earths, rubidium, cesium, lithium, antimony, molybdenum, and magnesium are expected to see improved fundamentals and price elasticity due to the optimized supply-demand structure and liquidity premiums [5][23] Group 2 - The rare earth industry is undergoing a structural optimization, with supply entering an accelerated improvement phase due to industry consolidation and regulatory changes, while demand is driven by sectors like electric vehicles and robotics [6][23] - The global rubidium and cesium market is entering a rapid expansion phase, with supply expected to grow significantly due to increased production capacity, while demand is driven by upgrades in consumption structure and emerging applications [7][8][23] - The lithium industry is projected to see a continuous improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with global lithium supply expected to grow from 1.231 million tons LCE in 2024 to 1.86 million tons LCE in 2027, driven by the growth of electric vehicles and energy storage systems [9][23] - Antimony is entering a strong prosperity cycle due to supply constraints and robust demand growth from the photovoltaic sector, with a widening supply-demand gap expected to push prices higher [10][23] - Molybdenum supply is expected to remain tight, with demand driven by the high-end transformation of the steel industry, leading to an upward price trend [11][23] - The magnesium industry is anticipated to enter a sustained tight balance state, with significant demand growth driven by automotive lightweighting and other emerging applications [12][23]