FICC日报 | 2025-05-07 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基20周价格968/1635,21周报价870/1450；HPL 5月船期报价1200/1900，6月份船期报价 1800/3000。 MSC+Premier Alliance，MSC 5月上半月船期报价1160/1940；ONE 5月船期报价1661/1637；HMM 5月上半月船期 报价1067/1734。YML 线下5月22日前船期报价1000/1600。 Ocean Alliance，COSCO 5月上半月船期报价2175/3625；CMA 5月份船期报价1210/1995，6月份船期报价1710/2995； EMC 5月份船期报价1255/2060；OOCL 5月船期报价1150/1700。 地缘端：在遭到以色列的大规模空袭后，也门胡塞武装"最高政治委员会"主席迈赫迪·穆沙特当地时间6日晚间表示， 无论付出什么样的代价，都不会放弃对加沙地带的支持。胡塞武装还表示，反击将会是毁灭性的、痛苦的，并将 超出美国和以色列的承受范围，任何侵略行为都不能阻止其对巴勒斯坦的支持。 5月份运力逐步上修，5月份 ...

中东局势相关新闻 4/28 美军称对胡塞武装造成致命打击 但不会披露行动细节。 4/29 以色列官员：（关于加沙问题谈判取得突破的）报道是不正确的。目前还没有真正的进展, 4/29 埃及消息人士：埃以在开罗讨论加沙停火新提议。一名埃及安全部门消息人士28日告诉新华社，埃及官员当天在首都开罗 与以色列战略事务部长德尔默率领的以方代表团举行会议，讨论一项旨在实现加沙地带停火的新提议。这两名不愿透露姓名的消 息人士表示，埃及提出了一项新提议，主要内容包括暂时停火6个月，以换取巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）释放—半以色 列被扣押人员。以方此前拒绝了埃及提出的一项哈马斯释放所有以色列被扣押人员以换取停火5年的提议。两名消息人士说，新 提议还包括以色列军队分阶段撤出加沙地带、开始加沙地带重建等内容。 注: XSI-C指数延迟三个工作日公布。 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队。 | | 2025/4/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 告约 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基 | 昨日成交量 ...

Group 1 - The current market is experiencing significant volatility, with 48 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 77 stocks hitting the limit down, indicating a severe market downturn [3] - A majority of the limit down stocks are facing performance issues, either due to disappointing annual or quarterly reports or growth that did not meet expectations [3] - High-position stocks are under pressure, and it is advised not to chase these stocks at this stage, as they may not recover [3] Group 2 - The focus on new investment opportunities should return to policy-driven themes, particularly the emphasis on stabilizing foreign trade as highlighted in recent meetings [3] - The shipping data indicates that international trade conditions can be assessed through shipping metrics, which are currently showing a tightening of capacity and rising freight rates in various regions [5][6][8] Group 3 - Freight rates are experiencing significant increases across various routes, with North American routes seeing rates rise by up to $2000 per container, while Latin American routes have increased by $1000 per container [12] - The shipping industry is responding to tight supply and rising demand by collectively raising prices to manage operational costs and enhance profitability [12] - Southeast Asia is emerging as a key market, with shipping companies actively expanding their presence in the region, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [16][18] Group 4 - Recent data shows that trade between China and ASEAN reached 6.99 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 9.0% increase and accounting for 15.9% of China's total foreign trade [17] - The expansion of shipping routes to Southeast Asia is not merely a reactive measure but is driven by the region's economic growth and integration with China [18] - The narrative of Southeast Asia as a "Plan B" is outdated, as it is now recognized as a central player in global shipping and trade [18][21]

Gemini Cooperation：马士基第18周报价1157/1951,19周报价973/1618,马士基20周价格885/1480；HPL 5月上半月船 期报价1200/1900，5月下半月船期报价1300/2100。 MSC+Premier Alliance，MSC5月上半月船期报价1260/2110；ONE 5月上半月船期报价1661/1637，5月下半月船期 报价1661/1637；HMM 5月上半月船期报价1067/1734。 Ocean Alliance，COSCO 5月上半月船期报价2175/3625；CMA 5月份上半月船期报价1285/2145，5月下半月船期报 价2335/4245；EMC 5月份上半月船期报价1255/2060；OOCL 5月上半月船期报价1200/1800。 5月份报价频频下调，近期主要船司纷纷修正5月份运价，马士基WEEK20运价降至1450美元/FEU，ONE 5月1日-5 月15日线下FAK价格下修至936/1602，MSC 5月上半月线下报价下修至1160/1940，COSCO5月上半月线下报价下修 至1350/1850。1450美元/FEU报价折合盘面10 ...

Report Title - The report focuses on the Container Shipping Index (European Line), with a title of "Container Shipping Index (European Line): Low-level Fluctuation, Hold 10 - 12 Inverse Spread Positions Lightly" [1] Core Viewpoints - The 2606 contract may be traded based on the spot freight rate trend in May, currently in a stage of weak reality (shipping companies cut prices to stock up at the end of April and failed to raise prices in early May) and weak expectations (no easing of Sino-US tariffs), and may fluctuate at a low level on a weekly basis. Attention should be paid to whether shipping companies can establish continuous rolling in the case of many blank sailings in early May to build momentum for price increases in late May. If the cargo collection is poor in early May, the increase in capacity in late May may lead to greater cargo collection pressure. The 2508 contract mainly reflects the expected trading of changes in Sino-US tariff policies. There are significant differences in the 2510 contract. Some long funds believe that the US inventory replenishment may last until October, which may require transferring ships from the European line, benefiting the European line. However, it is considered that September - October is the off - season of the European line, and shipping companies need to suspend sailings to slow down the decline of freight rates. Whether the US inventory replenishment in October requires transferring ships from the European line and the transfer intensity remain to be observed, and the 2510 contract mainly fluctuates following the valuation of the 2508 contract [15] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Fundamental Tracking Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Data - EC2504: Yesterday's closing price was 1,419.7, with a daily decline of 0.47%, trading volume of 3, open interest of 5,148, a decrease of 10 in open interest, yesterday's trading volume to open interest ratio of 0.03, and the previous day's ratio of 0.07 [1] - EC2506: Yesterday's closing price was 1,533.0, with a daily decline of 1.11%, trading volume of 53,941, open interest of 36,130, a decrease of 817 in open interest, yesterday's trading volume to open interest ratio of 1.49, and the previous day's ratio of 1.81 [1] - EC2508: Yesterday's closing price was 1,653.8, with a daily increase of 0.39%, trading volume of 17,645, open interest of 30,029, a decrease of 746 in open interest, yesterday's trading volume to open interest ratio of 0.59, and the previous day's ratio of 0.65 [1] Spot Freight Rate Data - The SCFIS European route and US - West route data are presented, along with the SCFI European route ($/TEU) and US - West route ($/FEU) data for different shipping companies such as Maersk, MSC, etc. The exchange rate of the US dollar index and the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 99.23 and 7.30 respectively. The European line freight rate index has a weekly increase of - 4.5% and a bi - weekly increase of - 2.9% [1] Shipping Capacity Data China - Europe Base Shipping Capacity - Weekly shipping capacity data shows the capacity of different alliances such as Gemini, OA, PA, and MSC. Monthly average weekly shipping capacity data from February to June 2025 is also provided, with the capacity of different alliances varying in different months [7][9] - The shipping capacity from April to June 2025 for different shipping companies and routes is presented in a table, with the total shipping capacity in some periods reaching up to 33.6 million TEU [11] Shipping Capacity Transfer from US Line to European Line - A total of 13 ships are transferred from the US line to the European line, with a total capacity of 170,132 TEU. The details include the week, shipping company, ship name, ship size, original US line code, current European line code, and Shanghai ETD/ATD [13] Macro and Industry News - The Hamas delegation held talks with the Turkish Foreign Minister on a cease - fire in Gaza on April 20. The two sides discussed issues such as stopping Israel's attacks on Gaza and reaching a comprehensive cease - fire agreement [15] - Trump said on April 17 that he was confident about reaching an agreement with China, expecting things to be settled in the next three to four weeks [15]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The European container shipping line (EC) opened low and fluctuated, with the 06 contract closing at 1555.2 points, down 1.67%. After the fermentation of the global trade demand recession expectation under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, the expected node of the traditional seasonal peak season for the European line has been postponed, and the space is limited. Maersk continued to offer a large container quote of $1800 in the first week of May, using the quote at the end of April. In the second week of May, the large container quote was slightly reduced by $50 to $1750. Both HMM and ONE reduced their large container quotes starting from the 17th week to below $2000. The average large container quote at the beginning of May was around $2100, slightly lower than the current average quote at the end of April. The possibility of a peak season inflection point in early May is small, and the market is cautious about the peak season space expectation. Currently, the start of the festival stocking season for the European line has not been seen, and with more shipping capacity supply from shipping companies in the second half of May, the short - term EC may continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the subsequent capacity regulation and price increase progress of shipping companies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - **EC2504**: The latest成交价 is 1428.9 points, down 0.31%. The trading volume is 81, and the open interest on one side is 1158. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 92 [1]. - **EC2506**: The latest成交价 is 1555.2 points, down 1.67%. The trading volume is 66899, and the open interest on one side is 36947. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 1261 [1]. - **EC2508**: The latest成交价 is 1646 points, down 0.87%. The trading volume is 20099, and the open interest on one side is 30775. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 912 [1]. - **EC2510**: The latest成交价 is 1314.8 points, up 0.40%. The trading volume is 6862, and the open interest on one side is 16254 [1]. - **EC2512**: The latest成交价 is 1465.2 points, down 0.36%. The trading volume is 1041, and the open interest on one side is 3789 [1]. - **EC2602**: The latest成交价 is 1315.9 points, up 0.88%. The trading volume is 543, and the open interest on one side is 2765 [1]. - **Total**: The total trading volume is 95525, and the total open interest on one side is 91688. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2265 [1]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - **Weekly Spot Index**: The SCFIS is 1402.35 points, down 1.4%; SCFI is $1356/TEU, up 1.5% [1]. - **Daily Spot Freight Rates**: TCI(20GP) is $1564/TEU, unchanged; TCI(40GP) is $2538/FEU, unchanged [1]. - **Basis Spread**: The basis spread on the previous trading day was - 152.85 points, a change of - 14.6 points compared with the day before [1]. Spot Market Data - Shipping Capacity - **Capacity Allocation**: The capacity allocation on the Asia - Europe route is 489606 TEU, a decrease of 1000 TEU. The idle capacity ratio is 2.0%. For different types of container ships, the idle capacity ratios of 17000TEU +, 12000 - 16999TEU, and 8000 - 11999TEU container ships are 1.3%, 0.2%, and 2.4% respectively [4]. - **Average Speed**: The average speed of container ships is 14.01 knots, and the average speeds of 17000TEU + and 12000 - 16999TEU container ships are 15.65 and 15.41 knots respectively [4]. - **Capacity in Port**: The capacity in port in Rotterdam is 24.590,000 TEU, in Hamburg is 9.870,000 TEU, and in Singapore is 34.750,000 TEU [4]. - **Routing Situation**: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 7, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal is 4, and the south - bound traffic volume is 3 [4]. - **Time Charter Rates**: The time charter rates for 9000TEU, 6500TEU, and 2500TEU ships are $106000, $73500, and $33750 per day respectively [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's tariff policy has an impact on market expectations, and investors are advised to focus on Maersk's WEEK17 weekly quotes [1] - The geopolitical situation shows that the US and Iran may conduct direct negotiations, which adds uncertainty to the market [2] - In April, the shipping capacity is relatively abundant, while in May, it is currently relatively scarce. Investors need to pay attention to the possible release of more blank sailings in May [2] - Major shipping companies are trying to raise prices in the second half of April, and CMA has officially announced the May quotation from Tianjin Xingang to Rotterdam, indicating that shipping companies are trying to create a price - increasing atmosphere during the off - peak to peak season transition [3] - With the approach of the peak season, shipping companies are expected to issue price - increase letters every month before July, which may lead to a strong short - term trend of the 06 and 08 forward contracts. However, the height of the peak - season prices should be expected to be lower [4] - In May, the price - holding effect is expected to be better than that in March and April. The 06 and 08 contracts are relatively safe for short - term long positions, but investors need to pay attention to the upward height. Due to the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy and the predicted pressure on US container imports in the second half of the year, if US - bound ships are redeployed to European routes, it will have a negative impact on European route freight rates. It is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations, such as going long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [5] - The main strategy is that the main contract fluctuates, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of April 8, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts is 81,272.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 120,506.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2504, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1441.50, 1517.70, 1885.00, 1980.10, 1388.80, and 1609.80 respectively [5] 3.2 Spot Prices - On April 4, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1336.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2313.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3306.00 US dollars/FEU. On April 7, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1422.42 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1129.45 points [6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of March 31, 2025, 23 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 345,000 TEU, and 2 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 47,000 TEU [6] 3.4 Supply Chain - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran may affect the shipping market. The shipping capacity in April is relatively high, and in May, it is relatively low. There are currently blank sailings in WEEK15, 18, 19, 20, and 21, and attention should be paid to whether more blank sailings will be released in May [2] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - No specific content directly related to demand and European economy analysis is provided other than the potential impact of the above - mentioned factors on the shipping market.

Core Viewpoint - The operation marks the first domestic green methanol fuel bunkering at Shanghai Yangshan Port, showcasing the port's capability to provide a full supply chain service for domestic green methanol [1][3] Group 1: Company Developments - The methanol bunkering vessel "Haigang Zhiyuan" is currently the largest operational methanol bunkering ship in China [3] - The vessel is set to pioneer the bunkering of green methanol fuel for international container ships at Chinese ports starting April 2024 [3] - The current bunkering operation involves approximately 2,900 tons of domestically produced green methanol, which can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 70% [1][3] Group 2: Industry Impact - The operation is a significant step in promoting the construction of China's green methanol industry chain and provides a "Chinese solution" for the energy transition and sustainable development in the shipping industry [3] - The integrated management platform of the company facilitates seamless coordination across the entire methanol fuel supply chain, enhancing operational efficiency [3] - Future plans include deepening collaboration with upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain to establish Shanghai Port as a global "green refueling station" for shipping [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes on China Industrials Industry Overview - The focus is on the shipping supply chain in China, particularly the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors due to USTR's proposed actions [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **USTR's Proposed Actions**: - USTR confirmed findings from the Section 301 investigation regarding China's shipping sectors and will hold a public hearing on March 24, 2025 [2]. - Proposed service charges on shipping companies with China exposure could be significantly higher than market expectations [2][3]. 2. **Impact on Chinese Shipping Companies**: - COSCO Shipping could face annual service fees between US$1 billion to US$3.5 billion, representing 33% to 116% of its estimated net profit for 2026 [4]. - SITC is expected to be unaffected due to no US exposure [4]. - Smaller tonnage Chinese-built vessels may be disproportionately impacted as the increased costs become more significant relative to revenue [4]. 3. **Service Fees Structure**: - Proposed fees include: - Up to US$1 million per ship per trip for Chinese shipping companies. - Up to US$1.5 million for companies with sizable Chinese-built vessel fleets. - Up to US$1 million for companies with significant orders from Chinese shipyards in the next 24 months. - Refunds of up to US$1 million for US-built vessels [3]. 4. **Impact on Shipyards**: - Negative implications for Chinese shipyards due to the proposed fees, but potential positive impacts for Korean shipyards [5]. - Major shipping companies have over 50% of their order books from Chinese shipyards, indicating limited impact on order wins for Chinese shipyards in the next two years [5]. 5. **Market Reactions**: - Following USTR's claims, share prices of Korean shipyards rose by 10-15%, while Chinese shipyards are expected to experience weakness [8]. Additional Important Insights - **Risks for Chinese Shipyards**: - Key downside risks include weaker-than-expected shipbuilding demand, changes in freight rates, and increased costs of inputs like steel [13][17]. - Upside risks could arise from better-than-expected shipping demand and potential disruptions in shipping schedules leading to increased freight rates [15]. - **Valuation Methodology**: - Price targets for companies like CM Port and COSCO Shipping are derived using sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) and EV/IC methodologies [14][16]. - **Investment Ratings**: - COSCO Shipping is rated as a "Sell," while China Merchants Port is rated as a "Buy" [31]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call regarding the implications of USTR's proposed actions on the shipping industry in China, highlighting potential impacts on companies and market dynamics.