Market Overview - US equity futures resumed their selloff after a brief bounce, with S&P 500 futures down 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 contracts falling 1.0%, driven by concerns over AI disruption [1] - All major tech stocks in the "Magnificent 7" are lower, with notable declines in Nvidia (-0.9%) and Alphabet (-1.5%) [3] - Energy, financials, industrials, and defensive sectors showed pockets of outperformance amid the broader market decline [1] Corporate News - Activist investor Elliott has built a significant stake in Norwegian Cruise Line, leading to a rise of over 7% in its shares [4] - Apple is set to hold a product launch on March 4, which may impact its stock performance [3] - ImmunityBio shares rose 6% after receiving encouragement from the Saudi Food and Drug Authority to submit a regulatory package for its bladder cancer therapy [4] - Masimo shares surged 34% following reports of a nearly $10 billion acquisition deal by Danaher [4] AI and Technology Sector - Investors are cautious about the profitability of AI spending, with concerns about competition and potential disruptions to various industries [6][7] - A record number of investors believe companies are overspending on AI, with 25% citing an "AI bubble" as a top market risk [10] - Despite selloff concerns, two-year forward earnings estimates for software stocks have risen, indicating resilience in the sector [11] Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data includes the ADP employment change, Empire State manufacturing survey, and NAHB housing market index for February, which could influence market sentiment [1][22] - The UK unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, leading to increased expectations for a Bank of England rate cut [16] Commodities and Geopolitical Factors - Oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions, particularly military drills by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, impacting Brent crude prices [13][48] - Gold prices have declined, with spot gold dropping toward $4,900 an ounce amid a risk-off sentiment [1][48]

Economic Overview - The UK unemployment rate has risen to 5.2%, the highest level in nearly five years, indicating a potential upward trend in joblessness [14] - Average weekly earnings growth has decreased to 4.2%, down from 4.6% in November, which is below market expectations [14] - The jobs market is showing signs of distress, with private sector wages not keeping pace with inflation for the first time in two and a half years [1][2] Labor Market Insights - The single month jobless rate is currently at 5.4%, with expectations that it could climb higher as redundancies are anticipated [2] - The number of payrolled employees fell by 11,000 month-to-month in January, following a drop of 6,000 in December, which was better than the consensus forecast of a 20,000 decline [15] - Youth unemployment has reached a new high of 16.1%, highlighting ongoing challenges in the labor market [3] Company Performance - Antofagasta reported a 53% increase in pre-tax profits, with earnings per share more than doubling, driven by higher copper prices and disciplined cost control [3] - The final dividend declared by Antofagasta was 48 cents, lower than the consensus estimate of 56.5 cents, while revenue of $8.6 billion was in line with forecasts [4] - InterContinental Hotels announced a 10% increase in its dividend and a $950 million share buyback following a year of record hotel openings [9] Market Reactions - The FTSE 100 opened higher, gaining 39 points, with companies previously affected by the 'AI scare trade' leading the way [7] - Miners, including Antofagasta and Fresnillo, were among the main fallers as copper and precious metals prices declined [8] - The pound has weakened by 0.5% against the dollar, influenced by rising unemployment and softer wage growth, which have increased the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut [12]

Core Insights - The miner's 2025 earnings increased by over 50% year-on-year [1] Group 1 - The significant rise in earnings indicates strong operational performance and market conditions favorable to the mining sector [1]

Market Overview - European stocks are expected to open lower, with the U.K.'s FTSE index projected to decline by 0.2% and Germany's DAX, France's CAC 40, and Italy's FTSE MIB anticipated to drop by 0.4% [1] - Regional markets experienced a slight increase on Monday as investors processed comments from the Munich Security Conference [1] Earnings Focus - Investors are closely monitoring earnings reports, with companies such as Antofagasta, BHP Group, InterContinental Hotels Group, and EssilorLuxottica set to report on Tuesday [2] - Key data releases include German inflation, economic sentiment, and U.K. unemployment figures [2] Asian Market Activity - Asian financial markets are exhibiting caution due to holiday-thinned trading, with major markets in mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea closed for Lunar New Year holidays [3]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in sulphuric acid prices, driven by supply disruptions, has significantly impacted China's copper smelters, shifting their profit reliance from traditional smelting fees to sulphuric acid sales, which may not be sustainable in the long term [1]. Industry Summary - Demand for sulphuric acid is increasing in the battery and mining sectors, tightening the market [1]. - Sulphuric acid prices have surged approximately 500% over the past 2.5 years, providing an estimated $1.5 billion boost to China's copper smelters last year as traditional smelting fees declined [1]. - The price of sulphuric acid reached about 1,045 yuan ($145) per metric ton in early January, compared to 464 yuan a year earlier [1]. - Sulphuric acid now accounts for over 64% of smelters' revenue from byproducts and other non-TC/RC sources, up from a historical 27% [1]. Company Summary - Yunnan Copper reported sulphuric acid sales of 790 million yuan ($114 million), which constituted about a quarter of its gross profit, despite acid contributing roughly 1% of revenue [1]. - Daye Nonferrous expressed concerns about the uncertain outlook for sulphuric acid prices, indicating a cautious approach among smelters regarding negative TC/RCs during contract negotiations [1]. - Analysts predict a potential decline in sulphuric acid prices by 10-30% in the coming months due to demand destruction from higher prices and new projects starting [1].

Group 1 - London mining stocks rose in early trading, with precious metal prices also experiencing slight increases [1] - In the New York market, gold futures increased by 0.9% to $5,026 per ounce, while silver rose by 4.5% to $80.39 per ounce [1] - Geopolitical uncertainty and central bank purchases provided support for gold prices [1] Group 2 - Hochschild Mining saw a rise of 3.6%, Fresnillo increased by 2.1%, and Endeavour Mining rose by 2.7% [1] - Commodity giant Glencore increased by 2%, while Anglo American rose by 0.5% [1] - Copper miner Antofagasta experienced a rise of 3.1% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed Chair nomination ignited the risk - aversion sentiment, causing the non - ferrous metals sector to rise first and then fall. Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and influencing factors, and overall, the market shows a complex and changeable situation. [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. It shows their daily, weekly, and annual percentage changes. For example, the US dollar index is at 97.6 with a daily decline of 0.36%, a weekly increase of 0.51%, and an annual decrease of 0.67%. [7] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Logic and Strategy**: Macro factors are bullish, with positive signals from Sino - US relations, US economic data, and strategic mineral reserve plans. The raw material end is also bullish due to tight copper ore supply. The smelting end is neutral with different profit situations for spot and long - term contract smelters. The demand end is neutral as the downstream is in the pre - Spring Festival stocking period. The inventory is bearish as the global visible copper inventory increases. The investment view is oscillating upward, with a trading strategy of going long on dips. [9] - **Main Data**: The closing price of Shanghai copper is 100100 yuan/ton, a 3.5% decrease from last week. The spot premium of flat - copper in China has narrowed, and the LME copper spot premium has widened. The copper ore port inventory has decreased, and the spot processing fee has continued to decline. The refined copper output has increased, and the import loss has slightly widened. [10][24][35] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Logic and Strategy**: Macro factors lead to an oscillating market, with factors like Fed expectations, geopolitics, and AI earnings affecting the market. The raw material end is slightly bullish as the processing fee stabilizes, and supply concerns ease. The smelting end is neutral with production contraction and losses. The demand end is bearish due to weak seasonal demand. The inventory is neutral with an increase in social inventory and a slight decrease in LME inventory. The investment view is oscillating, and the trading strategy is to wait and see. [94] - **Main Data**: The closing price of Shanghai zinc is 24450 yuan/ton, a 5.36% decrease from last week. The domestic market has turned to a discount, and the processing fee has bottomed out and stabilized. The production of zinc ingots has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate has declined. [95][96] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Nickel**: Macro factors are slightly bullish, with improved US consumer confidence and concerns about Fed policy easing. The raw material end is slightly bullish due to firm nickel ore premiums and reduced imports. The smelting end is neutral with changes in production and prices of pure nickel, nickel iron, and MHP. The demand end is neutral with weakening stainless steel demand and high - level new energy production and sales. The inventory is slightly bearish as the global nickel inventory has increased. The investment view is wide - range oscillating, and the trading strategy is to go long on dips. [203] - **Stainless Steel**: Macro and raw material factors are similar to those of nickel. The supply end is neutral with a significant decline in production scheduling. The demand and inventory situation is slightly bearish with an increase in inventory and weakening demand. The basis is neutral. The investment view is oscillating, and the trading strategy is to wait and see, with enterprises looking for opportunities to sell on rallies. [204] - **Main Data**: The closing price of LME nickel is 17235 US dollars/ton, a 1.82% decrease from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel is 131840 yuan/ton, a 5.83% decrease from last week. The closing price of stainless steel is 13670 yuan/ton, a 3.32% decrease from last week. The nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the stainless steel social inventory has increased. [205]

Group 1: Technology Sector - Tech stocks in the US have experienced a decline for three consecutive days, driven by investor concerns regarding potential disruptions in the artificial intelligence (AI) market [1][4] - The launch of Anthropic's new AI chatbot, Claude Opus 4.6, has raised fears about its impact on traditional professional services, leading to a sell-off in software companies [3][10] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq index has fallen by approximately 4% over the past five trading sessions, with significant losses attributed to fears surrounding AI's influence on the market [4][12] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector has faced additional pressure, with shares of major companies like AMD and Qualcomm dropping by nearly 3% and over 7% respectively, due to concerns about demand for microchips [2][12] - The overall decline in tech stocks has contributed to a broader sell-off in the semiconductor market, reflecting investor anxiety about future demand [2] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has seen a dramatic decline, with a drop of $200 billion, marking its sharpest decline in dollar terms since its inception, now trading about 50% below its record high of $126,198 [5][6] - The cryptocurrency market has been adversely affected by the tech sell-off, with Bitcoin experiencing its steepest one-day collapse on record, falling below $64,000 for the first time since September 2024 [6][11] - Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, also suffered significant losses, shedding more than 10% during the same period [11] Group 4: Financial Services Sector - Shares in financial services firms such as FactSet Research Systems, Nasdaq, and S&P Global have declined following the announcement of Anthropic's new AI tool, which is expected to automate tasks traditionally performed by these companies [2][8][10] - The overall sentiment in the financial services sector has been negatively impacted by the tech sell-off and concerns regarding AI's potential to disrupt traditional business models [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have rebounded significantly after a recent selloff, with analysts indicating that future gains will depend on foreign exchange movements and interest rate expectations [2][3][8]. Price Movements - Spot gold increased by 2.4% to $5,054.6 per ounce, while gold futures rose by approximately 3.4% [2]. - Spot silver saw a rise of 5.8% to $90 per ounce, with silver futures up 8% at $90.16 [2]. Market Context - The rebound in precious metals follows a nearly 10% drop in gold and a 30% decline in silver prices, marking the worst one-day performance for silver since 1980 [2]. - Analysts suggest that the recent price movements are a result of dip buying after significant corrections in the market [3]. Mining Companies Performance - London-listed mining companies experienced gains, with Rio Tinto up 1% and Anglo American up 0.7%, while Antofagasta saw a slight decline of 0.2% [4]. - The FTSE 350 Precious Metals and Mining Total Return Index rose by 2% to approximately 34,963 [4]. Investor Sentiment - UBS CEO noted that clients are becoming more cautious, seeking protection and moving away from the tech sector [4]. - There is a trend of excess cash being redeployed into capital markets, including precious metals [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that further gains in precious metals may be muted, with volatility expected to persist [7]. - The pace and sustainability of future price increases will be influenced by the U.S. dollar, interest rate expectations, and overall risk sentiment [8]. - Goldman Sachs has set a price target of $5,400 for gold by the end of 2026, while BofA Securities has a more bullish target of $6,000 [9]. Market Fundamentals - The physical market fundamentals are described as somewhat shaky but still supportive [10]. - Political uncertainty surrounding the upcoming mid-term elections and the direction of U.S. interest rates under the potential new Federal Reserve chair could impact forecasts [10][11].

Group 1 - The core view is that the US stock market may experience a surge of over 20% before a significant crash, with the probability of being in a bubble exceeding 80% [2][3] - The UBS report suggests that the MSCI global index has a year-end target of 1130 points, indicating an approximate 8% upside potential [3] - Seven preconditions for the current bubble have been met, including a prolonged period of equities outperforming bonds and a narrative of "this time is different" [4] Group 2 - The US 10-year Treasury yield is projected to potentially exceed its previous high of 5.04%, with a warning that government spending may continue until a crisis occurs [9][10] - The report highlights that the US federal deficit is at 4.2% of GDP, with government debt at 125.1% of GDP, significantly higher than during the TMT bubble [6][10] - UBS emphasizes that the current market is not at the peak of the bubble, as key warning signals have not yet appeared [7] Group 3 - Pharmaceutical stocks are expected to outperform, being one of the lowest leveraged defensive sectors, with positive catalysts including a strong dollar and easing drug pricing pressures [19][21] - The report indicates that technology stocks may significantly underperform due to rising capital expenditures and potential profit margin pressures [22][24] - The semiconductor sector's high profit margins are questioned, with concerns about sustainability and increasing competition from AI technologies [25] Group 4 - The report outlines that the eurozone's GDP growth may exceed expectations, supported by factors such as a decline in energy prices and potential fiscal easing [38] - India's market is highlighted as having strong structural growth potential, with nominal GDP growth significantly outpacing that of China [33] - Copper mining stocks are noted to be overvalued, with high price-to-earnings ratios and a reliance on Chinese demand, which is shifting from investment-led to consumption-led growth [36]