当大中型银行理财销售渠道趋于饱和，银行理财子公司正在加速打通城商银行、农商银行等中小银 行下沉市场，持续扩大代销合作网络。 《金融时报》记者注意到，今年11月以来，已有工银理财、信银理财、兴银理财、招银理财、苏银 理财等多家理财公司陆续宣布新增理财产品代销合作机构，合作对象集中于三线及以下城市的城商银 行、农商银行，银行理财代销渠道不断下沉，县域市场成为各方竞逐的核心赛道。 理财公司加速拓展代销渠道 近期，多家银行理财公司密集发布代销渠道扩容公告，理财代销业务向县域乡村市场等下沉市场渗 透的趋势日益明显。国有大型银行、股份制银行及城商银行理财子公司纷纷加码布局，通过与地方性中 小银行合作拓宽服务半径。 从具体机构动作来看，工银理财11月发布的相关公告显示，自11月11日起，工银理财已与徽商银行 签署合作协议，正式建立理财产品代理销售合作关系。中银理财也在11月先后发布两则公告，新增河南 农商银行、陕西咸阳农村商业银行为代销合作机构，进一步将销售渠道延伸至河南、陕西等地的下沉市 场。 除国有大行理财子公司外，股份制银行及城商银行理财子公司的下沉布局更为密集。《金融时报》 记者梳理发现，11月下旬以来，信银理财集 ...

Core Insights - The agricultural commercial bank sector experienced a slight increase of 0.21% on December 8, with Shanghai Agricultural Commercial Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3924.08, up by 0.54%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13329.99, up by 1.39% [1] Stock Performance - Shanghai Agricultural Commercial Bank (601825) closed at 9.52, with a rise of 1.17% and a trading volume of 214,500 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 204 million yuan [1] - Changshu Bank (601128) closed at 7.13, up by 0.28%, with a trading volume of 369,800 shares [1] - Other banks such as Jiangyin Bank (002807) and Zijin Bank (601860) saw declines of 0.63% and 0.71% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The agricultural commercial bank sector saw a net outflow of 5.0441 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 7.61304 million yuan [1] - Speculative funds, however, recorded a net inflow of 81.1746 million yuan [1] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Wuxi Bank (600908) had a main fund net inflow of 19.0391 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 21.8041 million yuan [2] - Qingnong Bank (002958) experienced a main fund net inflow of 15.7202 million yuan, but retail funds had a net outflow of 1.13021 million yuan [2] - Zhangjiagang Bank (002839) had a main fund net inflow of 7.6575 million yuan, with retail funds seeing a net outflow of 1.24512 million yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in the near term [1]. Core Insights - The positioning of the digital RMB is expected to advance, with significant potential in the payment sector. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is working on optimizing the management system for digital RMB, which may evolve from a cash-like payment instrument (M0) to broader monetary categories (M1, M2) [2][8]. - Infrastructure development for digital RMB is progressing, with the establishment of international and operational centers in Shanghai and Beijing, respectively. As of September 2025, the cumulative transaction amount in pilot areas reached 14.2 trillion yuan, with 2.25 billion personal wallets opened [3][8]. - The banking sector is expected to see a systematic recovery in valuations in 2026, transitioning from a defensive to a growth-oriented investment logic. Key investment themes include high dividend yields and low valuations, particularly as risk-free interest rates decline [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The banking sector comprises 42 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, representing 13.04% of the market [4]. - The average daily trading volume for A-shares was 10,583.60 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.65% increase from the previous week [8]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the banking sector over the past month is 5.0%, with a relative performance of 2.8% compared to the benchmark [5]. - The report highlights that the banking index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.46 percentage points during the week [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. State-owned banks and major commercial banks like China Merchants Bank. 2. Quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks with improving net interest margins and credit costs. 3. City commercial banks benefiting from regional policies and showing significant performance potential [9]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, and several city commercial banks such as Chengdu Bank and Chongqing Bank [9][10].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Mainline Model (Relative Strength Index, RSI) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to identify leading industries by calculating their relative strength index (RSI) over different time frames[1][9] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use primary industry indices as configuration targets, totaling 31 primary industries 2. Calculate the price changes over the past 20, 40, and 60 trading days for all industries, obtaining the cross-sectional rankings of these changes, then normalize all rankings to get RS_20, RS_40, and RS_60 3. Calculate the average of these three rankings to get the final industry relative strength index: $$ RS = \frac{RS_{20} + RS_{40} + RS_{60}}{3} $$ 4. If an industry shows an RS signal greater than 90% before the end of April, it is likely to be a leading industry for the year[9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identified leading industries in 2024, such as coal, power and utilities, home appliances, banks, oil and petrochemicals, communications, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and automobiles[1][9] 2. Model Name: Industry Rotation Model (Prosperity-Trend-Crowding Framework) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses a three-dimensional framework of prosperity, trend, and crowding to recommend industry allocations[1][2][6] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define two industry rotation schemes: "strong trend-low crowding" and "high prosperity-strong trend" 2. Allocate industry weights based on the framework: Media 16%, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery 15%, Non-bank Financials 12%, Computers 12%, Home Appliances 9%, Coal 9%, Building Materials 7%, Banks 7%, Light Industry Manufacturing 7%, Retail 6% 3. Recommend ETFs tracking indices such as CSI Steel, CSI Agriculture, Securities Companies, Communication Equipment, CSI Media, Sub-segment Chemicals, CS Artificial Intelligence, Animation Games, Sub-segment Machinery, All Information, Building Materials, etc.[2][6][15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model performed well in 2025, with an excess return of 16.4% relative to the CSI 800 index and 4.2% relative to the Wind All A index[2][6][18] 3. Model Name: Left-Side Inventory Reversal Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to capture the reversal of industries in distress by analyzing sectors with low inventory pressure and long-term analyst optimism[24] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Identify sectors currently or previously in distress with potential for inventory replenishment 2. Analyze sectors with low inventory pressure and long-term analyst optimism 3. Recommend sub-sectors such as cloud services, other light industries, oil service engineering, components, agricultural chemicals, animal husbandry, consumer electronics, special materials, and biomedicine[24][25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model achieved an absolute return of 25.4% in 2025, with an excess return of 5.4% relative to the industry equal weight index[24][27] Model Backtest Results 1. Industry Mainline Model (RSI) - **Absolute Return**: Various industries showed significant returns after the RSI signal appeared, such as banks (32.1%), communications (24.0%), home appliances (25.8%), and automobiles (12.8%)[10][12] 2. Industry Rotation Model (Prosperity-Trend-Crowding Framework) - **Annualized Return**: 21.7% - **Excess Annualized Return**: 13.8% - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.5 - **Maximum Drawdown**: -8.0% - **Monthly Win Rate**: 67% - **Excess Return in 2023**: 7.3% - **Excess Return in 2024**: 5.7% - **Excess Return in 2025**: 4.2%[13][14] 3. Left-Side Inventory Reversal Model - **Absolute Return in 2023**: 13.4% - **Excess Return in 2023**: 17.0% - **Absolute Return in 2024**: 26.5% - **Excess Return in 2024**: 15.4% - **Absolute Return in 2025**: 25.4% - **Excess Return in 2025**: 5.4%[24][27]

Group 1: Core Insights - The current bottom line for the net interest margin (NIM) of major banks is approximately 1.2% to 1.3%, indicating limited room for further significant declines [1][6][84] - Maintaining a reasonable level of NIM is essential for economic growth and financial stability, as it relates to capital balance, breakeven points, and risk pricing mechanisms [6][20][21] Group 2: NIM Bottom Line Calculation - The projected nominal GDP growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is estimated to be between 6.0% and 6.9%, which necessitates an M2 growth rate of about 7.0% to 8.0% [1][23][28] - The bottom line for NIM is calculated based on a required return on equity (ROE) of 7% to 8%, leading to a NIM bottom line of approximately 1.2% to 1.3% [36][84] Group 3: 2026 NIM Projections - If the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) decreases by 10 basis points (bps) and deposit rates remain unchanged, the NIM is expected to decline by approximately 5 to 8 bps in 2026 [2][85] - Without considering further interest rate cuts, the model predicts a decrease in loan rates by about 24 bps and deposit rates by 14 to 17 bps, resulting in a net interest margin contraction of about 2 to 5 bps [2][39][59] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - The monetary policy for 2026 is expected to be characterized by a "reasonable and ample" approach, with a likely LPR decrease of 10 bps and a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 50 bps [3][86] - The central bank's strategy will focus on balancing short-term and long-term goals, supporting economic growth while maintaining the health of the banking system [60][61] Group 5: Economic Recovery and Regulatory Impact - Economic recovery may not meet expectations, and regulatory changes could temporarily impact the banking sector's fundamentals [4][80] - The banking sector is under strong regulatory oversight, and any adverse policies could affect short-term valuations [80]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the decline in net interest margin (NIM) is expected to significantly slow down by 2026, suggesting that the current downtrend cycle for NIM may be nearing its end, contrasting sharply with the previous two years of uncertainty in the industry [1]. Group 1: Net Interest Margin Analysis - The current bottom line for major banks' NIM is estimated to be around 1.2% to 1.3%, indicating that it is close to the lower limit [2]. - The necessity of maintaining a reasonable NIM is emphasized as a condition for sustaining economic growth and financial stability, considering factors like capital balance and risk pricing mechanisms [2]. - A model predicts that if the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) decreases by 10 basis points (bps) while deposit rates remain unchanged, the NIM is expected to decline by approximately 5 to 8 bps year-on-year in 2026 [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy for 2026 is projected to be "reasonably ample and responsive," with an anticipated LPR decrease of about 10 bps and a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 50 bps [4]. - The report suggests that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will likely maintain stability in monetary policy, with a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, unless economic recovery is hindered [4]. - A projected M2 growth rate of 7.0% to 8.0% indicates a basic currency gap of approximately 2.7 to 3.0 trillion yuan for 2026, with measures such as a 0.5% RRR cut expected to release around 1 trillion yuan [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality stocks with improving NIM and attractive dividend yields, specifically highlighting Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, while also suggesting attention to Changsha Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank for potential excess returns [4]. - Major banks such as China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank are also recommended for investment [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking industry [5][6]. Core Insights - The banking industry's net interest margin (NIM) is expected to reach its bottom level around 1.2% to 1.3%, indicating a potential end to the current downtrend in NIM [1][42]. - The report predicts a decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 10 basis points (bps) in 2026, which will likely lead to a year-on-year decrease in NIM of about 5 to 8 bps [2][3]. - The monetary policy for 2026 is characterized as "reasonable and ample" with a focus on precise adjustments, aiming to balance economic growth and financial stability [3][67]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality stocks that are expected to see an inflection point in NIM, such as Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, while also considering stocks with attractive dividend yields like China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [4][5]. NIM Analysis - The report estimates that the NIM for 2026 will narrow by approximately 2 to 5 bps, marking the likely end of the current downtrend cycle [66]. - The projected decline in loan rates is about 24 bps, which will negatively impact NIM by approximately 15 bps, while deposit rates are expected to decrease by 14 to 17 bps, providing a positive impact on NIM of about 10 to 13 bps [66][60]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy framework for 2026 emphasizes a balanced approach, with the LPR expected to decrease by 10 bps, contingent on economic conditions [3][68]. - The report highlights that maintaining stability in NIM and deposit rates will be a key objective for the People's Bank of China in 2026 [71][72].

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 从红利年化 10%看收益来源 ——多行业联合红利资产 11 月报 策略月报 2025 年 12 月 03 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：杨晖 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rural commercial bank sector experienced a 0.75% increase on December 2, with Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index saw declines of 0.42% and 0.68%, respectively [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank was 6.72, up by 1.20%, with a trading volume of 538,400 shares and a transaction value of 361 million [1] - Other banks in the sector, such as Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank and Wuxi Bank, also reported gains of 1.06% and 0.65%, respectively [1] - The overall trading volume and transaction values for various banks indicate active market participation, with Zhangjiagang Bank and Suzhou Rural Bank also showing positive performance [1] Group 2: Fund Flow Analysis - The rural commercial bank sector saw a net outflow of 83.05 million from institutional investors and 32.37 million from speculative funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 115 million [1] - Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank had a net inflow of 13.21 million from institutional investors, despite a net outflow of 21.98 million from speculative funds [2] - The fund flow data indicates varying levels of investor confidence, with some banks like Zhangjiagang Bank experiencing significant net outflows from institutional and speculative investors, while retail investors showed strong interest [2]

国浩律师（苏州）事务所 关于 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司 2025 年第四次临时股东会 之 见证法律意见书 苏州工业园区旺墩路 269 号圆融星座商务广场 1 幢 28 楼（215000） 电话：（+86）（512）62720177 传真：（+86）（512）62720199 www.grandall.com.cn 网址/Website：http：//www.grandall.com.cn 2025 年 12 月 国浩律师（苏州）事务所 关于江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司 2025 年第四次临时股东会之见证法律意见书 致：江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2025年第四次临时股东会 于2025年12月1日上午10:00在江苏省常熟市新世纪大道58号该行三楼多功能厅召开，国浩 律师（苏州）事务所（以下简称"本所"）接受公司的委托，指派孙珩晋律师、黄亦依律 师（以下简称"本所律师"）出席会议，并依据《中华人民共和国证券法》（以下简称《证 券法》）、《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简称《公司法》）、中国证券监督管理委员 会《上市公司股东会规则》、《江苏常熟农 ...