FESHING T 2025 年 11 月 04 日 25Q3 需求淡季叠加成本抬升, 业盈利环比走弱,周期有望 -基础化工行业 2025 年三季报总结 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 相关研究 25Q3 油煤中枢环比抬升，成本端压力增加，叠加需求淡季，行业盈利环比承压，在建 工程持续回落。25Q3 传统淡季下游开工降低，整体处于去库状态，叠加能源价格底部 ● 反弹，部分周期品价差高位回落，业绩环比承压。国际贸易环境缓和，国内 "反内卷" 政策信号释放，叠加在建工程持续回落，化工供需平衡表边际修复，景气底部迎来长周 期向上。25Q3 Brent 现货均价为 69.29 美元/桶（YoY-14%，QoQ+2%），动力煤市场 用网址。2018年05月17 0020-59797 0020-596)，（1000年5月），4 润 336 亿元（YoY+10%，QoQ-5%），符合市场预期。成本压力叠加需求淡季，化工盈 利能力环比下滑，毛利率同环比分别+0.4、-0.3pct 至 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is experiencing a seasonal demand downturn combined with rising costs, leading to a decline in profitability. However, there are signs of a potential recovery as the cycle approaches a bottom [4][6]. - The report highlights that the overall revenue for the chemical sector in Q3 2025 was 543.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1%. Net profit reached 33.6 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year but down 5% quarter-on-quarter [4][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on demand-driven sectors such as the textile and agricultural chains, as well as export-related products, while also considering the benefits from the "anti-involution" policies [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Sector Overview - In Q3 2025, the chemical sector faced a traditional seasonal downturn with reduced downstream operations, leading to a state of inventory reduction. The average price of Brent crude oil was $69.29 per barrel, down 14% year-on-year but up 2% quarter-on-quarter. The average price of thermal coal was approximately 673.10 yuan per ton, down 21% year-on-year but up 5% quarter-on-quarter [4][29]. - The overall gross margin for the chemical sector was 17.6%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.3% [4][29]. 2. Industry Profitability Under Pressure - The report notes that the profitability of the chemical sector is under pressure due to rising costs and seasonal demand declines. The average asset-liability ratio for the sector is 49.6%, remaining stable year-on-year and slightly down by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter [4][29][35]. - Specific segments such as agricultural chemicals are performing well, with net profit growth in areas like fertilizers and pesticides, while other segments like titanium dioxide and organic silicon are experiencing significant declines [4][5]. 3. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high growth potential, such as the textile chain, agricultural chain, and export-related products. Key companies to watch include Lu Xi Chemical, Tongkun Co., and Wan Hua Chemical [4][5][6]. - The report also highlights the importance of key materials and self-sufficiency in the semiconductor and AI+ sectors, recommending companies like Yake Technology and Dinglong Co. for investment [4][5].

Group 1 - The stock price of Jinshi Resources increased by 2.10% on November 4, reaching 18.49 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.56 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 15.562 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 9.27%, with a 3.99% rise over the last five trading days, a 0.38% increase over the last 20 days, and a 16.88% increase over the last 60 days [1] - Jinshi Resources specializes in the investment and development of fluorite mines, as well as the production and sales of fluorite products, with main revenue sources being anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (52.55%), fluorite concentrate (38.03%), and others (9.42%) [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for Jinshi Resources increased by 35.62% to 27,500, with an average of 30,617 circulating shares per person, up by 3.13% [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Jinshi Resources reported a revenue of 2.758 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.73%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.88% to 236 million CNY [2] Group 3 - Since its A-share listing, Jinshi Resources has distributed a total of 624 million CNY in dividends, with 340 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The refrigerant market remains on an upward trend despite short-term information disturbances, indicating that the main upward movement is still ongoing, and investors should seize the layout opportunities [4][18] - The fluorochemical industry chain has entered a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across various segments, including raw materials like fluorite, refrigerants, and high-end fluorinated materials [22][23] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Market Overview - The fluorochemical index increased by 6.59% during the week of October 27 to October 31, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.47% [6][25] - The average market price for fluorite (97% wet powder) was 3,496 CNY/ton as of October 31, down 2.18% from the previous week [7][34] 2. Refrigerant Market - As of October 31, the prices for various refrigerants were as follows: R32 at 63,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 54,000 CNY/ton, R410a at 53,500 CNY/ton, and R22 at 16,000 CNY/ton, with most prices remaining stable compared to the previous week [8][20] - The market for R32 and R134a shows a strong upward trend, while R125 is expected to remain stable in the short term [21] 3. Company Performance - Major companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Dongyangguang reported significant profit growth in Q3 2025, with Juhua achieving a net profit of 3.248 billion CNY, up 160.22% year-on-year [9][10] - Recommended stocks include Jinsih Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, among others [10][23] 4. Market Dynamics - The fluorite market is currently experiencing a cautious atmosphere with low transaction volumes, as companies focus on digesting existing inventory [19][35] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by high inventory levels and strong performance in the sulfuric acid market, which adds pressure to fluorine chemical companies [19][35]

Group 1 - The report highlights that Q3 performance met expectations with a continuous increase in membership numbers for Focus Technology, achieving a revenue of 490 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17% [4][5] - The report indicates that the company’s net profit for Q3 was 122 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 118 million yuan, down 3.4% year-on-year [5][6] - The report notes that the company’s gross margin was 78.5%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 24.5%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year [5][6] Group 2 - The report states that Kuaijiao's revenue for the first three quarters was 3.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.24%, with a net profit of 742 million yuan, down 43.39% year-on-year [10][11] - In Q3, Kuaijiao's revenue was 643 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.23%, and the net profit was 27 million yuan, down 92.55% year-on-year [10][11] - The report indicates that the decline in high-end and mid-range liquor sales was significant, while low-end liquor saw a growth of 117.28% year-on-year [12] Group 3 - The report mentions that Jinshi Resources achieved a revenue of 2.758 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 50.73%, while the net profit was 236 million yuan, down 5.88% year-on-year [15][17] - In Q3, the company reported a revenue of 1.033 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.21%, and a net profit of 109 million yuan, up 32.29% year-on-year [16][18] - The report highlights that the company’s cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was 462 million yuan, an increase of 24.80% year-on-year [15][17] Group 4 - The report indicates that Wanze Co. achieved a revenue of 941 million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with a net profit of 170 million yuan, up 22.45% year-on-year [22][23] - In Q3, the company reported a revenue of 525 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, but a net profit increase of 31% year-on-year [24][43] - The report notes that the company has significant production capacity in high-temperature alloy components, with various agreements in place for further expansion [23][26] Group 5 - The report states that Lu'an Huanneng's revenue for the first three quarters was 21.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.8%, with a net profit of 1.55 billion yuan, down 44.45% year-on-year [28][29] - In Q3, the company reported a revenue of 7.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.8%, and a net profit of 210 million yuan, down 64% year-on-year [28][29] - The report highlights that the company plans to shut down its Xidong Coal Mine to improve operational efficiency and reduce losses [30][31] Group 6 - The report indicates that Mango Super Media's Q3 revenue was 3.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.58%, with a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 33.47% year-on-year [32][33] - The report notes that increased content and R&D investments led to higher costs, impacting profitability [33][34] - The report highlights that advertising revenue returned to positive growth in Q3, with new shows expected to drive further engagement [35][36] Group 7 - The report states that Hangya Technology achieved a revenue of 530 million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 1.95%, with a net profit of 78 million yuan, down 16.04% year-on-year [38][39] - In Q3, the company reported a revenue of 161 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.87%, and a net profit of 17 million yuan, down 34.78% year-on-year [40][41] - The report indicates that the company is focusing on new product development to drive future growth [39][41] Group 8 - The report mentions that Shandong Weida achieved a revenue of 1.439 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, with a net profit of 230 million yuan, up 15% year-on-year [43][44] - In Q3, the company reported a revenue of 525 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, but a net profit increase of 31% year-on-year [43][44] - The report highlights the company's strong cash flow and potential for growth in new business areas [44][45] Group 9 - The report indicates that Dinglong Co. achieved a revenue of 2.698 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, with a net profit of 519 million yuan, up 38% year-on-year [46][47] - In Q3, the company reported a revenue of 967 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and a net profit of 208 million yuan, up 31.5% year-on-year [47][48] - The report highlights the strong performance of the semiconductor business, contributing significantly to overall growth [48]

Market Performance - The basic chemical index increased by 2.14% from October 18 to October 24, while the CSI 300 index rose by 3.24%, indicating that the basic chemical sector underperformed the CSI 300 by 1.11 percentage points, ranking 15th among all sectors [1][2] - The top-performing sub-industries included other chemical fibers (6.42%), adhesives and tapes (5.75%), rubber additives (5.70%), other rubber products (5.32%), and polyurethane (5.21%) [1][2] Chemical Prices - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were hydrochloric acid (Shandong) at 450.00%, liquid chlorine at 400.00%, hydrochloric acid (Jiangsu) at 50.00%, domestic vitamin E at 17.95%, and international sulfur at 12.31% [3] - The top five products with the largest weekly price declines included octanol (-7.63%), propylene (-6.92%), acrylic acid (-6.11%), domestic vitamin D3 (-5.88%), and domestic vitamin B6 (-5.74%) [3] Industry Dynamics - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to promote high-quality development in the chemical industry, with a focus on optimizing and upgrading traditional industries, enhancing competitiveness in global industrial division, and fostering emerging pillar industries such as new energy and new materials [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to accelerate the effective improvement of traditional industries and reasonable growth in quantity, which could lead to the emergence of several trillion-level markets [4] Regulatory Updates - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced the 2026 quota plan for ozone-depleting substances, including a total production quota of 151,416 tons for HCFCs, with a reduction of 3,000 tons (-2%) for HCFC-22 compared to 2025 [5][6] - The plan also includes the allocation of production quotas for HFCs based on types, with no restrictions on HFC varieties [5][6] Investment Recommendations - Current investment focus includes the refrigerant sector, with potential price increases expected as the supply-demand balance is restored; recommended companies include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [7] - The chemical fiber sector is also highlighted, with recommendations for Huafeng Chemical, Xin Fengming, and Taihe New Materials [7] - Other sectors of interest include tire manufacturing (recommended companies: Sailun Tire, Senqilin, Linglong Tire) and agricultural chemicals (recommended companies: Yara International, Salt Lake Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, Yangnong Chemical) [7] - High-quality growth stocks to watch include Bluestar Technology, Shengquan Group, and Shandong Heda [7] Industry Rating - The basic chemical industry maintains an "overweight" rating [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in single fluorite mineral sales, with the "selection and processing integration" project in Baotou showing notable growth, aligning with expectations for performance [1] - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.758 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 51%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 236 million yuan, down 6% year-on-year [6][8] - The report highlights the expected recovery in fluorite prices due to seasonal demand and supply constraints, with a projected production of 10-12 million tons of single minerals in Q4 2025 [6][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at 3.746 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 36.1% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 338 million yuan in 2025, representing a 31.5% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The report anticipates an increase in gross margin to 21.2% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17.5% [2] Market Data - As of October 29, 2025, the company's closing price was 18.30 yuan, with a market capitalization of 15.403 billion yuan [3] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 8.5 and a dividend yield of 0.82% [3] Operational Highlights - The company’s fluorite powder production from the Baotou project reached approximately 620,000 tons in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 220,000 tons [6] - The average price of domestic 97% fluorite wet powder in Q3 2025 was 3,268 yuan per ton, with expectations for a price increase in Q4 2025 to 3,613 yuan per ton [6] - The report notes that the company is actively pursuing resource integration and development of fluorite resources in Mongolia, with ongoing projects expected to enhance profitability [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.758 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 51%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 236 million yuan, down 6% year-on-year, indicating that performance met expectations [8] - The company expects a recovery in fluorite prices due to seasonal demand and supply constraints, with a projected production of 100,000 to 120,000 tons of single mineral in Q4 2025 [8] - The "selection and processing integration" project is ramping up production, with significant increases in both fluorite and hydrogen fluoride sales expected in Q4 2025 [8] - The company is actively integrating scarce global resources, with progress on projects in Mongolia, including the establishment of operational entities for mining and processing [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are 3.746 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 36.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 338 million yuan, a 31.5% increase [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.40 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 46 [2] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 21.2% in 2025, increasing to 29.2% by 2027 [2] Market Data - As of October 29, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock was 18.30 yuan, with a market capitalization of 15.403 billion yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 8.5 and a dividend yield of 0.82% [3] Production and Sales Insights - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a single mineral sales volume of 114,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.72% [8] - The average price of domestic 97 fluorite wet powder in Q3 2025 was 3,268 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9% [8] - The company plans to produce 180,000 to 200,000 tons of fluorite powder in Q4 2025, with expectations of improved profitability in hydrogen fluoride sales [8]

Summary of Jinshi Resources Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Jinshi Resources - **Industry**: Mining and Resource Extraction Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - Jinshi Resources reported a **45% year-over-year revenue growth** in the first three quarters, primarily driven by the capacity release of the Baotou integrated project, which significantly contributed to profits and offset losses from other projects [2][3] - The **third-quarter profit reached 110 million yuan**, marking a **30% increase year-over-year** and an **85% increase quarter-over-quarter** [2][3] - The Baotou integrated project generated a profit of **170 million yuan** in the first three quarters, with Baogang's production increasing by **50% to 620,000 tons** [2][6] Cost Management - The cost of single mine operations decreased significantly from **2,000 yuan/ton in Q4 last year to approximately 1,600 yuan/ton** in the first three quarters, with September's costs dropping to **1,450-1,500 yuan/ton** [2][5] - The company demonstrated effective cost control, maintaining costs for hydrogen fluoride production below **750 yuan** [2][6] Project Updates - The Baotou integrated project and other projects contributed a total profit of **365 million yuan** in the first three quarters, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of **170 million yuan** [4] - The company is undergoing technical upgrades to enhance lithium hexafluorophosphate production, with expectations to complete these upgrades by **March or April 2026** [4][11] Challenges and Losses - Jinshi Resources is currently facing losses from several projects, including an e-commerce project with a loss of **31 million yuan**, a Jiangxi project with over **10 million yuan** in losses, and a Mongolian project with a loss of **18 million yuan** [7] - Despite losses, the Mongolian project is nearing breakeven, indicating potential for future profitability [2][7] Seasonal and Operational Factors - Seasonal factors have influenced sales, with lower demand in May, June, and July, but overall production improved in the third quarter due to higher operational rates [8] - Northern region companies, including those in Mongolia, typically halt operations from late October or November until April, but Jinshi plans to extend production using heating technology [10] Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The production capacity of Baogang and Jinshi is expected to exceed **800,000 tons**, surpassing the annual plan of **600,000 to 700,000 tons** due to effective tailings processing technology and collaboration with Baogang [9] - The Mongolian project is projected to process **400,000 tons of raw ore annually** with an expected output of **100,000 tons of concentrate** once the processing plant is operational [15] Market Trends - Recent fluctuations in fluorite prices were noted, but overall performance remains strong [5] - Silverstone prices have stabilized around **3,600 yuan**, with expectations for stability due to limited supply and reasonable demand [12] Future Production Plans - The vertical shaft renovation at Xiangzheng Mining is expected to be completed by the end of **2025**, with plans to gradually increase production thereafter [14] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Jinshi Resources' financial performance, operational challenges, project updates, and market outlook.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit by 84.69% quarter-on-quarter, with revenue reaching a historical high. The performance across various projects shows continuous potential for growth [6][7] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.758 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 50.73%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 236 million yuan, down 5.88% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.033 billion yuan, up 45.21% year-on-year and 19.17% quarter-on-quarter, marking a record high for a single quarter [6][7] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are as follows: - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 298 million yuan in 2025, 412 million yuan in 2026, and 665 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.35 yuan, 0.48 yuan, and 0.79 yuan [6][9] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 3.099 billion yuan in 2025 to 5.642 billion yuan in 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.6% in 2025 and 20.6% in 2027 [9][11] Project Progress - The company has made significant progress in various projects: 1. Single mine production and sales of fluorite products reached approximately 300,000 tons and 278,000 tons respectively, with Q3 sales of 123,600 tons, a substantial increase of 39.82% from Q2 [7] 2. The Baotou "selection and chemical integration" project produced about 620,000 tons of fluorite powder, with a significant year-on-year increase of 55% [7] 3. The Mongolian project is operating normally, producing approximately 85,000 tons of fluorite ore with 41,000 tons already shipped to China for processing or sales [7]