证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 股息率年关盘点 ——多行业联合红利资产 12 月报 策略研究 策略月报 2026 年 01 月 04 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】杠杆&ETF 资金分化趋势逆转—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-12-01 《【华 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Chinese banking industry is entering a transformative phase focused on high-quality development, with a clear strategic direction to accelerate the construction of a financial powerhouse and empower new productive forces [1] Policy Level Summary - The government has implemented targeted measures for risk resolution and transformation of local small and medium financial institutions, emphasizing market-oriented and legal approaches [1] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has intensified efforts to address "involution" competition, guiding the industry to shift from "scale competition" to "value creation" [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference has set priorities for 2026, focusing on the "reduction and quality improvement" of small and medium financial institutions [1] Industry Practice Summary - State-owned banks are experiencing a new wave of capital replenishment supported by special government bonds, enhancing their risk resistance and credit issuance capabilities [2] - The adjustment of deposit interest rates has deepened, entering the "1 era," with high-interest long-term products gradually being phased out [2] - The governance structure of banks has undergone historic reforms, with many banks abolishing supervisory boards and transferring oversight functions to audit committees [2] - The banking sector has seen a significant revaluation of undervalued bank stocks, with a notable increase in stock prices across the board [2] Financial for the People Summary - Policies aimed at improving financial services for the public have been implemented, such as exempting large cash withdrawals from registration, enhancing service efficiency and safeguarding individual financial autonomy [2] - A personal credit repair policy has been introduced to assist individuals with credit damage due to non-malicious overdue situations, facilitating their reintegration into economic activities [2] Key Terms Summary - **Involution Competition Rectification**: The banking industry has reached a consensus on combating "involution," with associations issuing self-regulatory agreements to promote healthy development [3] - **Reduction and Quality Improvement of Small Financial Institutions**: Over 400 financial institutions have exited the market in 2025, with a focus on optimizing structure and enhancing service capabilities [4] - **Bank Stock Value Revaluation**: The banking sector has seen a significant increase in stock prices, with 35 out of 42 A-share listed banks reporting positive growth [5] - **Declining Deposit Rates**: The net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased to 1.42%, leading to a widespread reduction in deposit rates [6][7] - **Exit of Supervisory Boards**: A wave of governance reforms has led to the abolition of supervisory boards in favor of audit committees, enhancing governance efficiency [8][9] - **Core Capital Supplementation for Major Banks**: Major state-owned banks have initiated a new round of capital replenishment, with plans to raise significant funds through stock issuance [10] - **Expansion of AIC**: The issuance of AIC licenses has resumed, allowing more banks to establish financial asset investment companies [11][12] - **Exemption from Registration for Withdrawals Over 50,000**: New regulations will simplify the process for large withdrawals, balancing financial security and service convenience [13] - **Personal Credit Repair Policy Implementation**: A one-time credit repair policy has been introduced to support individuals with overdue credit issues [14][15] - **Deepening the "Five Major Articles"**: The financial sector has made significant progress in implementing the "Five Major Articles" strategy, with a notable increase in loans to key areas [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the A-share banking sector index increased by 12%, with significant fluctuations throughout the year, including a strong performance in the first half, a pullback in the third quarter, and a recovery in the fourth quarter [1] Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The A-share banking sector index saw a cumulative increase of 12% in 2025 [1] - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) stood out with a stock price increase of over 52.66%, making it the highest-performing bank in terms of stock price growth [1] - By the end of 2025, six banks had stock price increases exceeding 20%, including ABC, Xiamen Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Chongqing Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), and Ningbo Bank [1] Group 2: Market Capitalization - By the end of 2025, ABC's A-share market capitalization surpassed that of ICBC, making it the highest market capitalization bank in A-shares, although ICBC still held a higher total market capitalization when including H-shares [1] - The total market capitalization rankings of the six major state-owned banks were led by ICBC (2.63 trillion yuan), followed closely by ABC (2.61 trillion yuan) [3] Group 3: Valuation Metrics - ABC's price-to-book (PB) ratio exceeded 1 for the first time, breaking the long-standing trend of state-owned banks trading below book value, which contributed to the overall valuation recovery of A-share listed banks [3] - The PB ratio for ABC was reported at 1.00, indicating a significant improvement in its market valuation [2] Group 4: Growth Drivers - The recovery of ABC's PB ratio is attributed to the potential release of county-level business opportunities amid urban-rural integration, which is expected to drive credit growth more significantly than its peers [4] - The bank benefits from lower liability costs and superior asset quality in the county financial sector, supporting steady growth in asset scale and profitability [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector experienced a year of volatility in 2025, with an overall increase of 7%, which is significantly lower than the 34.39% gain in 2024, yet many individual bank stocks reached historical highs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - By the end of 2025, 35 out of 42 bank stocks in the sector recorded gains, with 20 banks hitting historical highs and 21 banks increasing by over 10%, while 6 banks saw gains exceeding 20% [1][6]. - Agricultural Bank of China saw a remarkable stock price increase of over 52% during the year, briefly surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) in market capitalization [1][3]. - ICBC maintained its position as the "king of stocks" with a market capitalization of 2.63 trillion yuan and a stock price increase of 21.54% [1][3]. Group 2: IPO Market - The A-share IPO market for banks remained stagnant in 2025, with no new listings, as several banks, including Guangzhou Bank, withdrew their applications [2][11]. - The only banks still in the IPO queue are Dongguan Bank, Huzhou Bank, Hubei Bank, Jiangsu Kunshan Rural Commercial Bank, and Guangdong Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank [11]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Long-term funds, particularly insurance capital, have been actively purchasing bank stocks, with insurance companies holding 382.5 million shares valued at 37.976 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025 [8]. - The "stock accumulation for dividends" strategy has gained popularity among investors, with 28 out of 42 listed banks offering dividend yields above 4% [7][8]. Group 4: Capital Support - In 2025, state-owned banks received significant capital injections, with a total of approximately 520 billion yuan raised through targeted placements to enhance their capital structure [10]. - Meanwhile, smaller banks attracted investments from foreign and local state-owned enterprises, although the IPO process remains challenging for most [10][11].

Core Insights - As of September 2025, the number of listed companies in Chongqing reached 78, an increase of 20 from early 2021, with a total market capitalization exceeding 1.25 trillion yuan, representing a growth of 28.87% from the end of 2020 [2][11] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen Chongqing's securities regulatory authority implement policies to enhance both the quantity and quality of listed companies, contributing to high-quality economic development in the region [2][12] - Chongqing is leveraging capital to drive a structural revolution, with significant increases in core indicators such as revenue, R&D investment, and tax contributions, with R&D investment surging by 127.45% over five years [2][11] Group 1: Structural Changes and Innovations - The transformation of Chongqing's listed companies from quantity to quality is facilitated by institutional innovations, including government-guided funds and bankruptcy restructuring, providing a replicable model for inland cities [4][13] - Notable examples include the integration of resources between China National Pharmaceutical Group and Taiji Group, breaking down barriers in the pharmaceutical industry and fostering deep integration between central enterprise capital and local market networks [4][13] - The shift towards a light-asset model by companies like China Communications Construction Company has improved asset turnover rates by 37%, prompting a transition from land development to urban operations [4][13] Group 2: Bankruptcy Restructuring - For companies facing operational difficulties, Chongqing has adopted a challenging path of market-oriented bankruptcy restructuring to rebuild corporate value, as exemplified by Jinke Group's transformation into a comprehensive real estate operator [5][14] - The regulatory authority emphasizes that bankruptcy restructuring should not be seen as an endpoint but as a process that tests the long-term governance capabilities of the capital market [5][14] Group 3: Innovation Ecosystem - Chongqing's innovation has evolved from a focus on input quantity to an ecosystem approach, integrating "institution + scenario" to embed technological innovation deeply within the industrial landscape [6][15] - Leading companies like Changan Automobile have established significant research facilities, enhancing technology transfer rates to 42%, surpassing the national average of 28% [6][15] - The city is actively developing systemic support for innovation, including the establishment of technology transfer research institutes and specialized technology incubators [6][15] Group 4: Green Transformation - The green transformation of Chongqing's listed companies has integrated ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) principles into core competitive advantages, with the number of companies disclosing sustainability reports doubling to 41 since 2021 [7][16] - Companies like Seres have achieved high ESG ratings, which not only attract international capital but also facilitate market entry into the EU, reducing export costs by an average of 8% due to carbon tariffs [7][16] - Innovations in green finance, such as the issuance of green bonds linked to carbon reduction, have transformed financing into a dynamic value creation mechanism [7][16] Group 5: Strategic Positioning - Chongqing's listed companies have found a clearer positioning within national strategies, actively participating in regional development and international trade initiatives, becoming key players in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle and the Western Land-Sea New Corridor [8][17] - Financial innovations have significantly reduced the time for enterprise financing approvals, enhancing regional collaboration and serving as a vital link in the national strategy [8][17] - The successful establishment of automotive research and manufacturing bases by companies like Changan and Seres is paving the way for Chongqing's transition from domestic leadership to international competitiveness [8][17] Group 6: Future Outlook - The achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" lay a solid foundation for Chongqing's listed companies in the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," with ambitions to evolve from an "industrial highland" to an "innovation source" [8][18] - Future plans include the establishment of a Western Science and Technology Innovation Financial Reform Pilot Zone and the creation of a "green technology international certification center" to lower compliance costs for companies entering global markets [8][17][18]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the banking industry, suggesting a return to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1x during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on stable profitability and high-quality development [3][4]. Core Insights - The banking sector is transitioning from a focus on scale to quality, with an emphasis on risk management and structural optimization. The "15th Five-Year Plan" includes the goal of building a strong financial nation, highlighting the importance of high-quality development [3][16]. - The report identifies key changes in the banking industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan," including a shift in credit structure, a focus on profitability, and the need for banks to balance risk and efficiency [2][4]. - Regulatory support is expected to stabilize net interest margins, which have reached record lows, with a projected recovery in the coming years [5][19]. Summary by Sections 1. From Quantity to Quality - The banking industry has evolved through three five-year plans, with a shift from rapid expansion to a focus on quality and risk management. The current phase emphasizes high-quality development and financial support for key sectors [2][10]. 2. Developments During the "14th Five-Year Plan" 2.1 ROE: Resilience of State-Owned Banks and Advantages of City Commercial Banks - The return on equity (ROE) for listed banks has remained around 10%, with city commercial banks showing a slight advantage due to higher leverage and better provisioning [19][20]. 2.2 Credit: Moving Away from Scale to Balance Capital and Efficiency - Banks are prioritizing structural transformation over sheer volume, focusing on supporting key sectors and optimizing credit distribution [4][12]. 2.3 Interest Margin: Recovery from Continuous Decline - The report anticipates a stabilization of net interest margins, which have been under pressure, with regulatory measures aimed at supporting banks [5][19]. 2.4 Risk: Provisioning to Support Stability - The banking sector is expected to manage risks more effectively, with a focus on maintaining adequate provisions to support profitability during challenging economic conditions [4][19]. 2.5 Financial Markets: An Alternative Revenue Stream - The report highlights the increasing importance of financial market activities as a means to smooth revenue amid declining interest income, with banks diversifying their investment strategies [4][19]. 3. Investment Analysis Opinion - The report suggests a dual strategy of focusing on leading banks and undervalued city commercial banks, anticipating a recovery in valuations for state-owned banks that have been lagging [3][4].

低开低走大跳水，截至目前恒生指数下跌0.87%，大消费跌幅居前，恒生互联网、恒生科技、恒生医 疗、银行等紧随其后。 银行低开低走后探底回升，截至目前下跌0.61%。其中农业银行下跌1.7%，招商银行下跌1.7%，工商银 行下跌1.28%，交通银行、建设银行、重庆银行等股均小幅下跌。 内容只是个人观点，仅供参考，不作为投资依据！欢迎关注交流，互相学习、共同探讨！ 大消费低开低走跌幅居前，截至目前下跌1.34%。三生制药大跌2.98%，信达生物下跌2.72%，蜜雪集 团、泡泡玛特、创科实业、比亚迪股份等近10职个股跌幅在2%上方。 恒生科技低开低走下跌1.21%，目前出现止跌企稳的迹象。其中网易下跌2.71%，京东集团、美团、阿 里巴巴、快手等股跌幅均在1%上方；百度集团、小米集团逆势小涨。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking industry, indicating a "buy" rating for the sector during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1]. Core Insights - The banking sector is transitioning from a focus on quantity to quality, emphasizing risk management and efficiency in capital utilization. This shift is driven by the need to support the real economy while managing risks effectively [2][3]. - The report highlights that the return on equity (ROE) for listed banks has remained resilient, averaging around 10%, with city commercial banks leading at 11%-12% ROE, while state-owned banks maintain about 10% [2][3]. - Key changes observed during the "14th Five-Year Plan" include a shift away from scale-driven growth towards a balanced approach between capital and efficiency, a stabilization of net interest margins, and an increased focus on capital markets as a revenue source [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. From Quantity to Quality - The banking industry has evolved through three five-year plans, with a core transformation focusing on risk and efficiency rather than mere volume [2][3]. 2. High-Quality Development During the "14th Five-Year Plan" 2.1 ROE: Resilience of State-Owned and City Commercial Banks - Listed banks' ROE has slightly declined but remains around 10%, reflecting operational pressures while showcasing resilience [23]. 2.2 Credit: Balancing Capital and Efficiency - The focus has shifted from merely increasing credit volume to optimizing the structure of credit distribution, with significant changes in loan allocation towards technology and green sectors [16][19]. 2.3 Net Interest Margin: Stabilization Efforts - Regulatory support is expected to stabilize net interest margins, which have reached record lows, with proactive measures to prevent further declines [2][3]. 2.4 Risk Management: Provisioning for Stability - The banking sector has moved past peak risk levels, with provisions supporting ROE stability, while new economic challenges require ongoing risk management [2][3]. 2.5 Capital Markets: A New Revenue Stream - Capital market activities have become increasingly important, with banks leveraging these for revenue amidst pressure on interest income [2][3]. 3. Investment Analysis Opinion - The report suggests a focus on stable, high-quality development, with an expectation for bank valuations to return to 1x price-to-book (PB) ratios. It emphasizes a dual strategy of investing in leading banks and quality city commercial banks [3][4].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容 而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 BANK OF CHONGQING CO., LTD.* 重慶銀行股份有限公司* （ 於 中 華 人 民 共 和 國 註 冊 成 立 的 股 份 有 限 公 司 ） （股份代號：1963） 海外監管公告 本公告乃重慶銀行股份有限公司*（「本行」）根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第 13.10B條而作出。 茲載列本行在上海證券交易所網站刊發之《董事會議事規則》，僅供參閱。 代表董事會 重慶銀行股份有限公司* 董事長 楊秀明 中國重慶，2025年12月31日 於本公告刊發日期，本行的執行董事為楊秀明先生、高嵩先生及侯曦蒙女士；本行的非 執行董事為黃漢興先生、郭喜樂先生、吳珩先生、付巍先生、周宗成先生及余華先生； 本行的獨立非執行董事為朱燕建先生、劉瑞晗女士、汪欽琳女士、曾宏先生及陳鳳翔先 生。 * 本行經中國銀行業監督管理機構批准持有B0206H250000001號金融許可證，並經重慶市市 場監督管理 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容 而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 BANK OF CHONGQING CO., LTD.* 重慶銀行股份有限公司* （ 於 中 華 人 民 共 和 國 註 冊 成 立 的 股 份 有 限 公 司 ） （股份代號：1963） 海外監管公告 本公告乃重慶銀行股份有限公司*（「本行」）根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第 13.10B條而作出。 茲載列本行在上海證券交易所網站刊發之《股東會議事規則》，僅供參閱。 代表董事會 重慶銀行股份有限公司* 董事長 楊秀明 中國重慶，2025年12月31日 於本公告刊發日期，本行的執行董事為楊秀明先生、高嵩先生及侯曦蒙女士；本行的非 執行董事為黃漢興先生、郭喜樂先生、吳珩先生、付巍先生、周宗成先生及余華先生； 本行的獨立非執行董事為朱燕建先生、劉瑞晗女士、汪欽琳女士、曾宏先生及陳鳳翔先 生。 * 本行經中國銀行業監督管理機構批准持有B0206H250000001號金融許可證，並經重慶市市 場監督管理 ...