智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，东南亚与新市场的电商红利带来的极兔速递-W(01519)业务 规模增长，中国的盈利能力改善，将共同驱动公司未来业绩高增。该行预测极兔速递2025-2027年经调 整净利润分别为3.71/5.71/7.64亿美元，分别同比增长85.2%/54.0%/33.8%，对应经调整EPS分别为 0.040/0.061/0.083美元/股。考虑到公司在东南亚市场与拉美中东市场的的高成长性应享有估值溢价，该 行给予公司26年目标P/E27x，结合公司2026年经调整EPS预测0.061美元/股，对应合理估值12.90港元， 给予"买入"评级。 国盛证券主要观点如下： 中国：规模基本盘，海外标准输出基地 中国市场贡献了公司约75%的包裹量。公司在中国形成的先进、成熟的快递技术和经验，正被体系化的 赋能到东南亚和新市场，帮助在海外各国取得技术和经验优势，不断降低成本，提升海外竞争力与全球 区域优势协同。此外，随着下半年中国快递行业"反内卷"推进及多地提价落地，快递单票收入已明显回 升，中国区盈利有望改善。 新市场：卡位蓝海潜力无限 拉美、中东新市场GDP总量与人均水平均高于东南亚，但电商渗 ...

极兔速递是一家从东南亚崛起，并成功拓展至中国及拉美中东的全球化快递企业，快递网络覆盖了13个 国家，当前，核心投资逻辑在于，公司正同时享受东南亚电商及社媒平台崛起、中国的"反内卷"下盈利 修复与标准输出以及新市场电商的爆发式增长三重红利。 东南亚：盈利压舱石，乘社交电商东风而上 东南亚是公司的起家市场和利润"压舱石"，市占率稳居行业第一。2025年，公司成功把握了TikTokShop 在东南亚爆发式增长的战略机遇，通过深度合作承接其主流件量，驱动市场份额持续提升至32.8% (2025H1)。东南亚2025年前三季度包裹量同比增长65%，2025年上半年经调整EBIT同比增长74%。通过 持续的成本优化和运营经验赋能，在获取市场份额的同时保持了健康的盈利能力，东南亚市场有望在未 来5年持续保持较高增长速度，并贡献主要的利润增量。 中国：规模基本盘，海外标准输出基地 国盛证券（002670）发布研报称，东南亚与新市场的电商红利带来的极兔速递-W(01519)业务规模增 长，中国的盈利能力改善，将共同驱动公司未来业绩高增。该行预测极兔速递2025-2027年经调整净利 润分别为3.71/5.71/7.64亿美元， ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that Jitu Express (01519.HK) is a rapidly growing global express delivery company originating from Southeast Asia, with a strong presence in 13 countries, benefiting from the rise of e-commerce and social media platforms in the region, as well as profitability recovery in China and explosive growth in new markets [2][3]. Company Overview - Jitu Express is positioned to leverage three key growth drivers: the booming e-commerce market in Southeast Asia, the recovery of profitability in China due to reduced competition, and the rapid expansion of e-commerce in new markets [2][3]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Jitu Express from 2025 to 2027 are projected to be $369 million, $563 million, and $750 million, representing year-on-year growth rates of 84.3%, 52.6%, and 33.1% respectively [3]. - The expected adjusted EPS for the same period is $0.040, $0.061, and $0.081 per share [3]. Valuation and Investment Rating - Given the high growth potential in Southeast Asia and the Latin America and Middle East markets, the company is expected to command a valuation premium. The target P/E ratio for 2026 is set at 27x, based on the projected adjusted EPS of $0.061 [3]. - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Jitu Express, indicating a favorable outlook for the company's stock performance [3].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The logistics industry is experiencing a transformation driven by the reshaping of global supply chains, with Chinese logistics companies expanding into emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Latin America, creating new demand through capital output [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Strategy for 2026**: The strategy focuses on two main lines: leveraging domestic advantages in global markets and reshaping the competitive ecosystem in the domestic logistics industry [2][3] - **Drivers for Chinese Logistics Companies Going Global**: The primary driver is the fundamental change in the global supply chain, moving away from a US-China trade-centric model to new growth points in Southeast Asia and Latin America, which are rich in population and resources [3][4] - **Modes of Expansion**: Chinese logistics companies are expanding through three main models: following mining companies, manufacturing, and e-commerce platforms, with the first and third models showing strong explosive potential [5][6] Market Developments - **E-commerce Market in Southeast Asia and Latin America**: Major platforms like Shopee, TikTok Shop, and Lazada dominate the Southeast Asian market, holding over 50% market share, while Chinese-backed platforms are rapidly entering Latin America [6] - **J&T Express's Overseas Expansion**: J&T Express has rapidly expanded its overseas business through a unique profit-sharing system, achieving over 32% market share in Southeast Asia and planning further expansion into the Middle East and Latin America [7] Impact of Mining Companies on Logistics - Following mining companies requires logistics firms to provide infrastructure in exchange for overseas resources, with significant Chinese investment in African ports and infrastructure [8] Changes in Domestic Express Delivery Industry - The domestic express delivery industry is shifting from price competition to a focus on quality, service, and stability due to the fading of internet traffic dividends and intensified competition among e-commerce platforms [9] E-commerce Tax Policy Changes - Starting in 2025, a new e-commerce tax compliance policy will require platforms to report operator information quarterly, increasing tax pressure on businesses with annual revenues over 5 million yuan [11] Effects of Anti-Competition Policies - The anti-competition policies implemented in 2025 have led to improvements in express delivery prices and profitability, shifting the focus back to service quality and operational efficiency [13] Future Investment Recommendations - Future investments in the logistics sector should focus on companies with advantageous industries going global, restructuring domestic order, and positioning for commodity price cycle reversals [14] Outlook for Bulk Commodity Supply Chain Companies - Bulk commodity supply chain companies are expected to see improved performance as they expand into overseas markets, with top companies achieving 30% of their revenue from international operations [15][16]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index has short-term support at the 25,000 point level, with expectations of two interest rate cuts in 2026 following the Federal Reserve's recent 0.25% rate cut, which brings the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [1][4] - The market anticipates a dovish monetary policy stance post-2026 leadership change, but further observation of economic data is necessary [1] - The Chinese economy is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a focus on stabilizing investment and the real estate market, while the US-China tariff war has paused, limiting the incentive for aggressive policy adjustments in the short term [1] Company News - Xiaomi's co-founder Lin Bin plans to sell up to $2 billion worth of shares, with proceeds intended for establishing an investment fund [10] - Leapmotor has received a premium subscription from FAW for nearly 75 million shares, amounting to over 4.1 billion RMB [10] - ByteDance is expected to purchase Huawei's Ascend chips next year, with total orders potentially exceeding 40 billion RMB, marking a significant increase from nearly zero in 2025 [10] - UBTECH Robotics has acquired a 43% stake in Fenglong for approximately 1.665 billion RMB, focusing on garden machinery and automotive components [10] - Vanke's domestic bond extension proposal was not approved, but a grace period extension was passed, allowing for a 30-day extension [10] Industry Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is addressing "involution" competition in new energy vehicles and related industries, emphasizing price monitoring and quality checks to prevent disorderly competition [9] - The Chinese government is set to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on boosting consumption and effective investment in key areas [9] - The industrial profits in China fell by 13.1% year-on-year in November, indicating challenges in the industrial sector [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology forecasts a 5.9% growth in industrial value added for the year, with significant growth in high-tech manufacturing [9]

极兔速递-W(01519.HK)发布公告，于2025年12月25日，卖方、New Exploration Investment、Jet Global、 Onwing Global与公司订立股份转让协议I，据此，Onwing Global(公司附属公司)同意收购且卖方及New Exploration Investment同意出售Jet Global合共约36.99%(按已转换基准)的股权，总对价最高为9.50亿美 元。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

极兔速递-W(01519)发布公告，于2025年12月25日，卖方、New Exploration Investment、Jet Global、 Onwing Global与公司订立股份转让协议I，据此，Onwing Global(公司附属公司)同意收购且卖方及New Exploration Investment同意出售Jet Global合共约36.99%(按已转换基准)的股权，总对价最高为9.50亿美 元。 于2025年12月25日，eWTP、JNT Express KSA、J&T KSA与公司订立股份转让协议II，据此，J&T KSA(公司非全资附属公司)同意收购且eWTP同意出售JNT Express KSA合共约46.55%的股权，总对价最 高约为1.06亿美元。 于本公告日期，公司间接拥有JNT Express KSA约53.45%权益，而JNT Express KSA为公司的非全资附属 公司。建议JNT Express KSA转让完成后，JNT Express KSA将由公司间接全资拥有且将继续为公司的附 属公司，而JNT Express KSA的财务业绩将继续并入公司的财务报表中。 建议转让拟 ...

Group 1 - The company has entered into a share transfer agreement with New Exploration Investment, Jet Global, and Onwing Global, where Onwing Global will acquire approximately 36.99% of Jet Global's shares for a total consideration of up to $950 million [1] - As of the announcement date, the company indirectly holds about 63.81% of Jet Global's equity before the conversion of convertible notes, which will reduce to approximately 59.44% after the conversion [1] - Jet Global will continue to be a subsidiary of the company, and its financial performance will be consolidated into the company's financial statements [1] Group 2 - A separate share transfer agreement has been established with eWTP, JNT Express KSA, and J&T KSA, where J&T KSA will acquire approximately 46.55% of JNT Express KSA's shares for a total consideration of up to $106 million [2] - The company currently holds about 53.45% of JNT Express KSA's equity, and post-transfer, JNT Express KSA will be indirectly wholly owned by the company [2] - The proposed transfers aim to optimize the company's capital structure and create favorable conditions for long-term development, while also extending payment obligations to enhance financial flexibility [2]

人民财讯12月28日电，极兔速递在港交所公告，公司于12月25日订立两份股份转让协议，根据协议，公 司附属公司Onwing Global拟收购Jet Global合共约36.99%的股权，总对价最高为9.5亿美元；公司附属公 司J&T KSA拟收购JNT Express KSA合共约46.55%的股权，总对价最高约为1.06亿美元。于本公告日 期，New Exploration Investment所持可转换票据获转换前公司间接拥有Jet Global约63.81%权益；间接拥 有JNTExpress KSA约53.45%权益。 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 須予披露交易 收購非全資附屬公司股權 緒 言 茲提述招股章程「歷史及公司架構」一節所披露的Jet Global投資者退出權及eWTP 退出權，所有Jet Global投資者及eWTP獲授予退出權，並可於上市後行使該等退 出權。鑒於Jet Global投資者退出權及eWTP退出權以及New Exploration Investment的 退出，訂約各方經公平磋商，轉而與Jet Global投資者、New Exploration Investment 及eWTP協 定，本 集 團 將 根 據 下 述 詳 列 的 股 份 轉 讓 協 議 的 條 款 及 條 件，分 別 收購彼等各自於Jet Global及JNT Express KSA的 股 權。 於2025年12月25日，賣 方、New Exploration Investment、Jet Global ...