投资策略：国内"反内卷"叠加价格修复下关注航空和快递，海外美联储降息周期下推荐油散及大宗商品 供应链。"反内卷"频繁出现于中央重要会议及报告中遏制低效竞争已在最高决策层形成共识。国内宏观 环境方面，CPI和PPI价格指数整体有所回暖。对快递行业而言，2025年10月，全国快递单票价格为7.48 元，同比-3.00%，降幅较9月份的-4.91%明显收窄，随着快递行业"反内卷"的持续推进，快递单票价格 跌势放缓。航空票价方面，2025年10月，国内机票平均价格为809元，同比7.6%，机票价格自9月份以 来明显修复，10月份的票价录得今年以来月度同比最好表现。同时2025年年初至今美联储三次降息，今 年累计降息75个基点。目前美联储仍处在降息周期，油运散运以及大宗商品供应链等赛道整体外部宏观 条件相对较好。 "反内卷"及价格修复主线：快递行业增速放缓关注价格修复，航空出行需求和票价逐步回暖。2025年1- 10月快递业务量累计同比增长16.10%，10月快递业务量仅实现个位数增长，行业整体业务量增速有所 放缓。价格方面，通达系单票价格降幅明显收窄，我们认为，在行业增速有所下降叠加快递行业"反内 卷"的情况下，通达 ...

"反内卷"及价格修复主线：快递行业增速放缓关注价格修复，航空出行需求和票价逐步回暖。2025年1- 10月快递业务量累计同比增长16.10%，10月快递业务量仅实现个位数增长，行业整体业务量增速有所 放缓。价格方面，通达系单票价格降幅明显收窄，我们认为，在行业增速有所下降叠加快递行业"反内 卷"的情况下，通达系电商快递的单票价格有望企稳，关注后续价格修复带来的投资机遇。同时极兔速 递东南亚市场表现强劲，巴西等新市场物流需求稳健增长。我们看好海外东南亚和新市场电商快递快速 增长带来的投资机遇。航空方面，中国民用飞机机队规模稳步增加，但疫情后机队增速呈现"下台阶 式"趋势。据国家统计局数据显示，疫情前10年（2010-2019年）中国民用飞机架数增速均值为 10.44%2020-2024年中国民用飞机架数增速均值降至2.85%。价格方面，随着出行需求的逐步恢复，今年 9月以来的机票价格整体有所修复，2025年前10个月，航空煤油均价为86.01美元/桶，较去年同期下降 10.90%。煤油价格下降也有助于提升航空公司的盈利能力。 美联储降息周期下的大宗投资主线：油运散运有望迎来共震，大宗供应链企业经营有望触底反弹。 ...

物流行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251229 摘要 全球供应链重塑驱动中国物流企业出海，新兴市场如东南亚和拉丁美洲 成为增长点，中国资本输出创造海外新需求，主要模式包括跟随矿企、 制造业和电商平台出海，其中跟随矿企和电商平台出海爆发力较强。 东南亚电商市场由腾讯、字节跳动和阿里巴巴控股的 Shopee、TikTok Shop 和 Lazada 主导，占据半数以上市场份额，渗透率快速提升；拉 丁美洲市场中资背景的 Shopee、Temu 和 SHEIN 也在快速进入并提升 市占率。 极兔速递通过分利体系迅速拓展海外业务，深度绑定总部与代理商利益， 复制国内成功模式，在东南亚快递市场份额突破 32%，并计划拓展中东 和拉丁美洲市场，上半年东南亚包裹量增速超 63%，三季度达 78%。 跟随矿企出海需要交通运输企业提供基础设施配套以换取海外资源，中 非合作采取基建换资源形式，中资投资非洲超过 1/4 港口，并参与核心 通道收费公路及口岸建设，嘉友国际复制跨境边境口岸开发经验至非洲。 国内快递行业从价格竞争转向注重质量、服务与稳定性，互联网流量红 利消失、电商平台竞争加剧导致价格战，但用户增长放缓、电商品质要 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Xiamen Xiangyu [3][9] Core Insights - Xiamen Xiangyu is positioned as a comprehensive investment holding group focused on bulk commodity supply chain services, aiming to become a global supply chain service provider. The company has shown a significant recovery in revenue growth and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, driven primarily by its metal mining and energy chemical businesses [8][28]. - The report identifies three major trends reshaping the bulk supply chain industry: the strategic focus on supply chain autonomy amid geopolitical tensions, the transition from traditional trade to integrated service platforms, and the globalization of logistics networks following domestic manufacturing expansion [8][41][50]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The projected total revenue for Xiamen Xiangyu is expected to reach 387.75 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 21.84 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 53.9% compared to the previous year [7][9]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to be 0.77 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11x [7][9]. Business Model and Growth Drivers - Xiamen Xiangyu's business model is evolving from traditional trading to a comprehensive service platform, focusing on value-added services that enhance customer operations. This shift is expected to stabilize revenue streams and improve profitability [8][50][54]. - The company has made substantial investments in fixed assets and is pursuing digital transformation and globalization as dual drivers for future growth. The shipbuilding segment is also projected to contribute significantly to profit, with a substantial order backlog [8][9][60]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Xiamen Xiangyu's market position is strengthened by its diversified business operations, which include metal supply chains, logistics, and shipbuilding. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in trade demand and improved industrial performance [8][30][60]. - The report compares Xiamen Xiangyu with peers such as Jianfa Co., Xiamen Guomao, and Sumida, noting that the average PE ratio for comparable companies is 14x, indicating a potential upside of 26% for Xiamen Xiangyu's current market valuation [9][30].

智通财经APP讯，瑞茂通(600180.SH)公告，公司旗下全资子公司CCSHK拟将其持有的ReunionShipping Assets Management Co., Limited 51%的股权转让给EBRIDGE，转让价格为380.9万美元。该事项旨在进 一步聚焦大宗商品供应链核心主业，公司拟对现有航运业务进行调整优化，以便更好地支撑主营业务。 ...

瑞茂通（600180）(600180.SH)公告，公司旗下全资子公司CCSHK拟将其持有的ReunionShipping Assets Management Co.,Limited51%的股权转让给EBRIDGE，转让价格为380.9万美元。该事项旨在进一步聚焦 大宗商品供应链核心主业，公司拟对现有航运业务进行调整优化，以便更好地支撑主营业务。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Rui Mei Tong announced a strategic adjustment in its shipping business by transferring its 51% stake in Reunion Shipping Assets Management Co., Limited to EBRIDGE for $3,808,986 to better focus on its core commodity supply chain operations [1] - Rui Mei Tong's revenue composition for the first half of 2025 is as follows: coal direct transportation and coal blending and processing sales account for 77.9%, non-coal bulk commodities account for 11.02%, agricultural product processing accounts for 10.9%, and industrial internet platform services account for 0.19% [1] - The company's market capitalization is reported to be 4.9 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Ruimaotong (600180), stated that its gross margin level aligns with the conditions of the bulk commodity supply chain industry and is focused on expanding and innovating its market layout, product categories, and business models to enhance its gross margin through both domestic and international market development [1] Group 1 - The company's gross margin is consistent with the bulk commodity supply chain industry standards [1] - The company aims to improve its gross margin by exploring dual markets and establishing a multi-category operational matrix [1] - The company is committed to continuous expansion and innovation in its strategic arrangements and operational models [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiamen Xiangyu has transformed from early exploration of "commodity trade linkage" to participating in "industrial chain operations," establishing itself as a leading enterprise in the domestic bulk commodity supply chain sector, showcasing a successful model of state-owned enterprise reform [1] Group 1: Strategic Development - The company aims to create industrial value through circulation in the restructured global supply chain, emphasizing cooperation and value co-creation with various stakeholders [1][3] - Xiamen Xiangyu's international strategy focuses on "supply chain leadership, logistics support, and investment drive," targeting resource-rich but infrastructure-poor regions [3][5] - The company has established a comprehensive logistics system in Africa and Southeast Asia, enhancing its international presence and operational capabilities [1][5] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Xiamen Xiangyu reported a net profit of 1.032 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.48%, marking a new high in growth rate [8] - The logistics revenue from the aluminum industry increased by over 400% following the establishment of a logistics channel from West African mineral sources to domestic sales areas [5][8] Group 3: Innovation and Digitalization - The company has shifted from merely providing services to participating in operations, integrating deeply into various stages of the industrial chain [9] - Xiamen Xiangyu has implemented a digital supply chain service platform, helping clients secure approximately 9.8 billion yuan in financing and reducing financing costs by 10% to 40% [12] - The introduction of AI technologies has significantly improved operational efficiency, with the development of an AI assistant for various business processes [12] Group 4: Talent and Human Resources - The company plans to grant approximately 170 million shares of restricted stock to 928 core personnel, marking a new high in incentive scale [13] - Xiamen Xiangyu emphasizes a talent strategy focused on capability rather than academic or seniority criteria, aiming to cultivate talent that aligns with the company's growth [13] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company is set to prioritize Southeast Asia and Africa for future development, with plans to gradually expand into Central Asia, South Asia, and the Americas [7] - Xiamen Xiangyu's mission is to become a global leader in supply chain services driving industrial chain operations, with a focus on sustainability and contributing to national and regional economic development [11][14]

Core Insights - Xiamen is a city that has thrived due to its openness, becoming a crucial link between domestic and international markets, with a favorable business environment fostering the growth of major supply chain enterprises [2][3] - Xiamen Guomao Group has established itself as a leader in the supply chain industry, particularly in the fields of steel, coal, textiles, rubber, and grain, being one of the top three supply chain companies in China [2][3] Supply Chain Operations - The company has been deeply involved in the paper industry for over 20 years, achieving comprehensive coverage of the pulp and paper supply chain, contributing to resource recycling and sustainable development [3][5] - Xiamen Guomao has been importing over 200 million tons of Brazilian soybeans annually, with a trade volume exceeding 1 billion yuan, showcasing its significant role in the agricultural supply chain [3][4] Strategic Partnerships - The company has built a supply chain network in Brazil by collaborating with major global grain traders and local enterprises, providing end-to-end supply chain services and enhancing trade relations between China and Brazil [4][10] - Xiamen Guomao has become the largest importer of Uzbek cotton yarn in China, establishing strong partnerships with over 100 local cotton enterprises and optimizing logistics through direct rail connections [8][9] Global Expansion - The company has expanded its international presence, establishing over 50 subsidiaries and offices worldwide, enhancing its global supply chain capabilities and service offerings [11] - Xiamen Guomao aims to transition from being a market entrant to a value co-builder, focusing on localized operations and talent acquisition to strengthen its international partnerships [10][11]