01 报告摘要 钢材铁矿周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2026-02-06 目录 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 市场焦点 1. 安徽省13家建筑钢材生产企业中，6家电炉钢厂已规划春节前后检修计划，平均检修时间为27天，较去年减少4天，预计检修 影响产量37.64万吨。 2. 山西11家建筑钢材生产厂家中，7家钢厂不同程度停产检修，另外1家钢厂计划3月份检修。根据各家钢厂检修及不饱和生产 情况，日影响建筑钢材产量约在4.7万吨。 3. 云贵地区9家短流程钢厂中，7家钢厂春节期间均会安排停产检修。受效益影响，今年短流程钢厂停产检修时间较往年平均缩 短了约8天，平均停产检修天数在18天，日均影响产量2.7万吨，较往年减少0.15万吨。 4. 截至2月3日，13家钢厂发布2026年冬储政策，其中东北5家，华北3家，西北2家，西南3家。 5. 13省2026年政府工作报告中提及基建行业相关的内容。其中，河南实施1000个以上省重点项目，年度完成投资1万亿元；陕 西实施省级重点项目640个、完成投资3500亿元以上。 ...

沙钢股份（002075.SZ）2月5日在投资者互动平台表示，截至目前，公司产品尚未有销往欧盟等相关国 家和地区。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：公司产品获得多国认证，请问产品销往欧盟国家的收 入占比为多少？是否全部来源于境内经营主体直接销售？ ...

Market Performance - The special steel sector increased by 2.23% on February 4, with Jinzhou Pipeline leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Jinzhou Pipeline (002443) closed at 8.86, up 3.99% with a trading volume of 297,000 shares and a turnover of 262 million yuan [1] - Shagang Group (002075) closed at 5.72, up 3.62% with a trading volume of 693,700 shares and a turnover of 392 million yuan [1] - Shengde Zhengtai (300881) closed at 41.89, up 3.43% with a trading volume of 28,900 shares and a turnover of 12 million yuan [1] - CITIC Special Steel (000708) closed at 15.46, up 2.93% with a trading volume of 185,600 shares and a turnover of 286 million yuan [1] - Xining Special Steel (600117) closed at 2.89, up 2.85% with a trading volume of 313,800 shares and a turnover of 8.95 million yuan [1] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 6.32, up 2.60% with a trading volume of 331,600 shares and a turnover of 207 million yuan [1] - Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) closed at 5.12, up 2.20% with a trading volume of 839,100 shares and a turnover of 423 million yuan [1] - Jiao Jin Co. (603995) closed at 19.00, up 1.44% with a trading volume of 47,700 shares and a turnover of 9.03 million yuan [1] - Changbao Co. (002478) closed at 10.40, up 1.27% with a trading volume of 331,200 shares and a turnover of 342 million yuan [1] - Fushun Special Steel (668009) closed at 6.67, up 0.91% with a trading volume of 728,500 shares and a turnover of 485 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The special steel sector experienced a net outflow of 32.17 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 33.42 million yuan [2] - The detailed capital flow for individual stocks shows varying trends, with some stocks experiencing significant net outflows from main and speculative funds [3]

Market Performance - The special steel sector increased by 3.24% on February 3, with Changbao Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Changbao Co., Ltd. (002478) closed at 10.27, with a rise of 7.99% and a trading volume of 448,300 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 451 million [1] - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) closed at 33.88, up 6.94%, with a trading volume of 141,100 shares and a transaction value of 466 million [1] - Fushun Special Steel (665009) closed at 6.61, up 4.09%, with a trading volume of 999,300 shares and a transaction value of 658 million [1] - Other notable stocks include Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) at 5.01 (+3.94%), Fangda Special Steel (600507) at 6.16 (+3.88%), and Shengde Yantai (300881) at 40.50 (+2.22%) [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The special steel sector experienced a net outflow of 85.2862 million from institutional investors and 15.4187 million from retail investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 101 million [1] - Specific stock capital flows indicate that Shagang Co. (002075) had a net inflow of 27.8528 million from institutional investors, while Changbao Co. (002478) had a net outflow of 26.0742 million [2] - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) also saw a net inflow of 20.5370 million from institutional investors, while West Ning Special Steel (600117) had a net inflow of 9.5394 million [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-03锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2605： 1.基本面：从成本端来看，整体锰矿成交价格仍处于高位且整体市场暂稳，对硅锰合金价格仍有较强成本支撑；2026年内 蒙地区地方电价以及南方电价对合金的成本支撑正在验证中，预计上涨可能性较大。从供应端来看，近期北方主产区新增 硅锰炉子点火，普硅硅锰产能再增加，且前期点火矿热炉已陆续出要铁，供应压力增加。南方合金厂开工率稳定较低， 2026年广西、贵州电费优惠政策力度有待验证，大多依旧维持避峰生产，存在厂家选择暂时停产，等待1月底的电费结算 价格。当前硅锰供应宽松压力仍存。从需求端来看，河钢集团26年1月硅锰采量17000吨，对比12月采量：14700吨，数量 增加；硅锰定价5920元/吨，对比1 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market strategies and the economic outlook for February 2026, focusing on government bonds, credit bonds, and the impact of monetary policy on these markets [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy and Interest Rates**: - Current monetary policy remains accommodative with optimistic economic and inflation expectations, leading to a 10-year government bond yield surpassing 1.8%. However, breaking this level is challenging without clear signals for interest rate cuts [1][2]. - The 10-year bond yield is currently around 1.8%, slightly above the low of 1.77% seen in mid-November [2]. 2. **Credit Bonds and Market Dynamics**: - Increased volatility in the stock market may affect the scale of fixed-income funds, influencing preferences for low-grade credit (1-2 years) and high-grade credit (3-5 years) [2][3]. - The issuance of bonds by private enterprises is rising due to government support, with significant events in 2025 indicating a focus on enhancing financing mechanisms for small and medium enterprises [2][10]. 3. **Policy-Driven Opportunities**: - The government is expected to provide funding support to local governments to ensure economic growth targets are met, with an emphasis on increasing the total amount and optimizing the structure of special debt [15][16]. - The introduction of new policy financial tools worth 500 billion yuan is anticipated to promote project construction [16]. 4. **Investment Strategies**: - Investors are advised to consider holding bonds over the Spring Festival, weighing coupon levels and expectations for interest rate declines post-holiday. Current low coupon levels suggest caution [4]. - Specific recommendations include focusing on government bonds with potential for price appreciation, such as 10-year active bonds and long-duration bonds (30 and 50 years) [5][6][7]. 5. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - The private sector's bond issuance is notably increasing, with significant participation from industries like utilities, transportation, and pharmaceuticals. This trend indicates a shift in the market dynamics, with non-financial enterprises gaining ground [10][13][14]. - The issuance of asset-backed securities (ABS) and asset-backed notes (ABN) is becoming a popular financing choice for private enterprises, supported by favorable government policies [11]. Additional Important Content - **Long-Term Investment Considerations**: - While 50-year government bonds are recommended for their favorable odds, investors should be cautious about extending duration too much in their portfolios [7]. - The liquidity of 50-year bonds is sufficient for trading and holding needs, but larger portfolios may require more active long-term bonds [7]. - **Future Economic Growth and Government Support**: - The government aims to stimulate future industrial development through leading technology enterprises, which will receive extensive policy support [17]. - Local governments are expected to expand domestic demand through various measures, including job security and wage increases, focusing on service consumption sectors [18]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the bond market, investment strategies, and the broader economic context.

以上调整均为含税价，执行日期自2026年2月1日起。 中天钢铁 1月31日中天钢铁集团对建材品种出厂价格进行了调整，本次调整是以"1月20日中天钢铁集团出台2026 年1月下旬产品价格 "为基准，各品种调整如下： ①螺纹钢品种价格平 ，现HRB400材质Φ18mm规格执行价格3400元/吨；HRB400E加价30元/吨， Φ10mm加价160元/吨，Φ12mm加价100元/吨，Φ14mm加价30元/吨，Φ16mm、Φ20mm、 Φ22mm 加价 30元/吨 ，Φ25mm加价50元/吨， Φ28-32mm加价80元/吨；Φ36mm以上加价250元/吨；HRB500在 HRB400基础上加价300元/吨，HRB500E在HRB400基础上加价330元/吨。 ②高线品种价格平 ，现HPB300材质Φ8-12mm规格执行价格3700元/吨，Φ6mm加价150元/吨 ； 沙钢 2月1日沙钢对建筑钢材品种出厂价格进行了调整，"1月21日沙钢出台2026年1月下旬建材价格调整"为基 准，具体调整情况如下： ①螺纹钢价格暂稳，现HRB400Ф16-20mm螺纹出厂价格为3450元/吨，Φ10mm规格加价160元/吨， Φ12 ...

Market Overview - The special steel sector experienced a decline of 7.3% on February 2, with CITIC Special Steel leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Stock Performance - CITIC Special Steel (000708) closed at 14.78, down 9.99% with a trading volume of 449,200 shares and a transaction value of 685 million yuan [1] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 5.93, down 8.49% with a trading volume of 752,300 shares [1] - Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) closed at 4.82, down 7.84% with a trading volume of 1,597,700 shares [1] - Other notable declines include Jiuli Special Materials (002318) down 5.80%, Shagang Group (002075) down 5.56%, and Xining Special Steel (600117) down 4.83% [1] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net outflow of 60.03 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 102 million yuan [1] - However, there was a net inflow of 162 million yuan from speculative funds [1] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) had a main fund net inflow of 15.79 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 37.95 million yuan [2] - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) recorded a main fund net inflow of 10.71 million yuan, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 29.56 million yuan [2] - Shagang Group (002075) had a main fund net inflow of 5.83 million yuan, but retail funds saw a significant net outflow of 54.47 million yuan [2] - CITIC Special Steel (000708) reported a main fund net outflow of 643,900 yuan, with a small net inflow from speculative funds [2]

Group 1 - As of January 31, 2025, 23 steel companies in the A-share market have disclosed performance forecasts, with approximately 78% expecting improved year-on-year results, including profit growth, turnaround from losses, or reduced losses [1] - Benxi Steel Plate Co., Ltd. forecasts a net loss of 3.83 billion yuan for 2025, a reduction in losses by 239.7 million yuan year-on-year [1] - Anshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. anticipates a net loss of about 4.08 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year reduction in losses of approximately 42.75% [1] - Five companies, including Liuzhou Steel Co., Ltd., expect to turn losses into profits in 2025, while five others, including Jiangsu Shagang Co., Ltd., forecast varying degrees of profit growth [1] Group 2 - The core drivers for the steel industry's transition from losses to profits in 2025 include cost advantages, supply discipline, and unexpected export growth, indicating a shift from a deep adjustment phase to a recovery phase [2] - The significant improvement in the overall operating conditions and profitability of the steel industry is attributed to multiple factors, including structural growth in steel demand driven by manufacturing upgrades, effective control of ineffective supply, and stable or declining raw material prices [2] - The ongoing supply-side structural reforms and implementation of industry regulations are promoting the exit of backward production capacity and facilitating the industry's transition to high-quality development [2] Group 3 - In 2025, China's crude steel production is projected to be 961 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, while steel output is expected to reach 1.446 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [3] - China's steel exports are expected to reach a record high of 119 million tons in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [3] - The steel industry's development model is undergoing profound changes, characterized by "reduction in quantity and optimization of stock" as the industry moves towards a more sustainable growth model [3] Group 4 - Lingyuan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. emphasizes a focus on "reducing quantity and improving quality," aiming for intensive production and efficiency [4] - Benxi Steel Plate Co., Ltd. is committed to an efficiency-centered development approach, enhancing production efficiency and optimizing marketing channels to improve market competitiveness [4] - The industry is expected to transition towards high-end, green, and intelligent production, with accelerated exit of backward capacity and increased application of low-carbon technologies [4]

Market Overview - The special steel sector experienced a decline of 0.17% on January 30, with Fushun Special Steel leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - CITIC Special Steel (000708) closed at 16.42, up 3.27% with a trading volume of 326,800 shares and a turnover of 531 million yuan [1] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 6.48, up 1.09% with a trading volume of 760,700 shares and a turnover of 494 million yuan [1] - Fushun Special Steel (6652009) closed at 6.54, down 4.11% with a trading volume of 1,332,900 shares and a turnover of 867.1 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net outflow of 196 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 159 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks includes: - Fangda Special Steel had a net inflow of 19.57 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - CITIC Special Steel experienced a net outflow of 21.09 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Shagang Co. (002075) had a net outflow of 5.42 million yuan from institutional investors [3]