国际油价大幅上涨，分散染料迎来第四轮涨价 二月份建议关注：1、低估值行业龙头公司；2、"反内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、下游需求旺 盛，自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司。 行业动态 基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 2 月 25 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20260225 相关研究报告 《染料价格上行，一体化企业有望受益》 20260211 《化工行业周报 20260208》20260208 《化工行业周报 20260201》20260202 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 证券分析师：范琦岩 qiyan.fan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525040001 投资建议 风险提示 ◼ 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 ◼ 本周（02.17-02.24）均价跟踪的 100 个化工品种中，共有 33 个品种价格上涨，8 个品种价格下跌， ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The main trading logic in the market recently has been the price increase of electronic components and cyclical goods [1] - Cyclical stocks showed strong performance, with sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and port shipping rising significantly [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.43% as of the morning close [1][2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The chemical sector saw significant gains, particularly in phosphate chemicals, titanium dioxide, fertilizers, and glyphosate, with stocks like Qing Shui Yuan and Chuan Jin Nuo experiencing substantial increases [2][3] - The lithium carbonate futures contract continued to rise, supported by improved macro sentiment and strong fundamentals, with low inventory levels bolstering prices [7] - The oil price increase has also contributed to rising expectations for chemical product prices [5] Group 3: Specific Stock Highlights - Notable stocks that hit the daily limit include Northern Rare Earth and Baogang Co., with significant price increases observed in various cyclical stocks [1] - In the chemical sector, Chuan Jin Nuo and Qing Shui Yuan both reached their daily limit with increases of 20.01% and 19.97%, respectively [3] - In the port shipping sector, stocks like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Jinling saw substantial gains, with COSCO Shipping Energy rising by 10.03% [8][9]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 电子元器件和周期品涨价，是最近市场的主要交易逻辑。 今天上午，周期品涨价主线表现更强，化工、有色金属、港口航运等板块上涨，市场对周期股的热情又 蔓延至钢铁、煤炭、水泥、造纸等其他周期板块。周期股上午掀起涨停潮，其中，北方稀土、包钢股份 等龙头股涨停。 截至上午收盘，上证指数上涨1.2%，深证成指上涨1.47%，创业板指上涨1.43%，科创综指上涨0.77%。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 科创综指 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4166.72 | 14501.50 | 1812.09 | | +49.31 +1.20% | +209.94 +1.47% | +13.88 +0.77% | | 万得全A | 创业板指 | 北证50 | | 6915.91 | 3355.66 | 1539.69 | | +87.33 +1.28% | +47.39 +1.43% | +4.26 +0.28% | 具体看周期品涨价主线，化工板块中，磷化工、钛白粉、化肥、草甘膦等板块大涨，清水源（维权）、 川金诺等个股大涨。 | V | 磷 ...

电子元器件和周期品涨价，是最近市场的主要交易逻辑。 今天上午，周期品涨价主线表现更强，化工、有色金属、港口航运等板块上涨，市场对周期股的热情又蔓延至钢铁、煤炭、水泥、造纸等其他周期板块。 周期股上午掀起涨停潮，其中，北方稀土、包钢股份等龙头股涨停。 另外，最近油价上涨，也带动了化工品涨价预期。 对于化工板块的投资逻辑，业内人士表示，从行业数据看，2025年三季度化工板块在建工程已连续三个季度同比下滑，资本开支增速显著放缓，供给端压 力大幅下降。需求端，从全球视角来看，化工整体需求在逐步改善。同时，当前化工行业大多数子行业开工率维持在80%以上，库存处于偏低水平，一旦 需求改善，化工品价格弹性可能非常大。 分析人士表示，化工板块估值修复将呈现轮动、扩散式特征，而非全品种普涨。估值先行修复的品种主要有以下特征：具备成本优势、供应受限且出口增 加、全球产能出清后供需紧平衡、与新质生产力紧密相关。 | 女达科技 | 7.88 | 11.46% | 36.2 乙 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 融 920809 | | | | | 川发龙蟒 | 14.04 | 10.03% | 264亿 | ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing significant positive developments, particularly in four key areas: phosphorus chemicals, disperse dyes, titanium dioxide, and non-ferrous metals [1] - An executive order signed by Trump on February 18, 2026, aims to secure domestic production of phosphorus and glyphosate herbicides, addressing supply chain vulnerabilities, as the U.S. relies heavily on a single domestic producer [1] - Zhejiang Longsheng announced a price increase for disperse dyes effective February 24, with a notable rise of 2000 yuan per ton for disperse black [1] - Longbai Group has issued a price adjustment notice for titanium dioxide, with cumulative price increases of 1200 yuan per ton over November and December [1] - The non-ferrous metals market is shifting, with expectations of interest rate cuts potentially influencing the spring market dynamics [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813) has its top ten weighted stocks, including Wanhua Chemical and Yanhua Co., accounting for 44.82% of the index [2] - The CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index closely tracks the performance of major listed companies in the chemical sector, reflecting the overall performance of the industry [2]

Group 1 - Institutional investors have been actively visiting nearly 70 listed companies since February 9, with a focus on industries such as machinery, automotive, and basic chemicals [1][7] - Key topics of inquiry include the pricing logic of dyes and memory products, as well as domestic and international capacity layout planning [1][7] - Foreign institutions like BNP Paribas and TX Capital are also involved in company research, focusing on the globalization of capacity and long-term growth logic in wind energy and PCB sectors [1][7] Group 2 - Recent fluctuations in prices of raw materials, chemicals, and electronic components have led institutions to question the reasons for price increases, their sustainability, and companies' response strategies [2][8] - Baichuan Co. reported that due to tight TMP supply and rising prices, many companies have decided to halt or reduce production, leading to market supply constraints [2][8] - The dye sector has also seen price increases, with Zhejiang Longsheng announcing a price hike of 5000 yuan per ton for certain dye products due to rising costs of raw materials [2][8] Group 3 - The pace of capacity release among listed companies has become another major focus for institutions [9] - Fule New Materials is accelerating the commercialization of flexible sensors, with plans to complete a formal production line by the first quarter of 2025, aiming for an annual capacity exceeding 10,000 units [10] - Chongde Technology is optimizing production processes to steadily increase capacity utilization, while Hars's Thai production capacity is progressing as planned, expected to meet its target by the end of 2026 [10] Group 4 - Foreign institutions have shown increased interest in A-share listed companies, with firms like Bank of America and Citigroup participating in research activities [11] - Tianshun Wind Power has been a popular subject of inquiry, with foreign investors asking about its 2026 shipment volume and capacity situation [11] - The company anticipates a surge in domestic offshore wind project tenders and construction, particularly in Guangdong, which will drive market demand [11] Group 5 - The PCB sector has gained attention, with Okoyi, a supplier of PCB drill rods, being closely monitored by foreign institutions [12] - The company has developed capabilities in ultra-fine nano hard alloy materials and currently has a production capacity of 1,300 tons of rod material [12] - Recent reports from foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese stock market, particularly in sectors like AI-enabled smart manufacturing, high-end equipment localization, and the trend of going global [12]

数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国硫酸(折100％)产量为932万吨，同比下降2.8%；2025年1-12 月中国硫酸(折100％)累计产量为11081.6万吨，累计增长4.5%。 2020-2025年中国硫酸(折100％)产量统计图 上市企业：紫金矿业（601899）,江西铜业（600362）,巨化股份（600160）,中金黄金（600489）,铜陵有 色（000630）,龙佰集团（002601）,云天化（600096）,浙江龙盛（600352）,川发龙蟒（002312） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国硫酸行业市场研究分析及投资前景评估报告》 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that the Chinese chemical industry may enter a new upward cycle between 2026 and 2028, with expectations for profit recovery and valuation rebound, although Morgan Stanley suggests that the recovery is more likely to be "long-tail" driven by liquidity rather than fundamental improvements [1] - Zhao Ximing, Vice Dean of Hengli Industrial Chemical Academy, points out that the current cycle is more supply-side driven, with domestic coastal petrochemical bases gradually gaining global pricing power, leading to a rotational characteristic in the valuation recovery of the chemical sector [1] Group 2 - Recent events include the organizational restructuring of Six Nations Chemical (600470) on February 10, 2026, which involves the cancellation of the original phosphate fertilizer workshop and the establishment of five core operational systems to enhance management efficiency and cost accounting accuracy [2] - The chemical sector has recently strengthened, supported by price adjustments in disperse dye varieties (e.g., Zhejiang Longsheng (600352) saw a cumulative increase of 5000 yuan/ton for disperse dye black on February 8) and the implementation of export tax rebates for 94 pesticide varieties starting April 1 [2] Group 3 - In the past 7 days (as of February 13, 2026), Six Nations Chemical's stock price has shown significant volatility: it rose by 0.90% to 6.74 yuan on February 11, with a trading volume of 124 million yuan, but fell by 2.26% to 6.48 yuan on February 13, with the highest price during the period being 6.88 yuan (February 11) and the lowest being 6.46 yuan (February 13), resulting in a fluctuation of 6.37% [3] - Capital flow data indicates a net outflow of 5.19 million yuan from the main funds on February 13, with a turnover rate of 2.85%, and the stock price is approaching a resistance level of 6.88 yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a price surge in dyes, driven by a significant increase in the prices of upstream key intermediates, with some rising over 50% [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The price of disperse dyes has been continuously increasing, with leading companies like Zhejiang Longsheng and Runtou Co. raising their quotes on February 8 [1] - UBS Securities indicates that after four years of adjustment, the supply-demand dynamics in the chemical industry are improving, predicting an upward cycle from 2026 to 2028 [1] Group 2: Company Insights - Demy Chemical (002054), a fine chemical enterprise, has a closely related textile chemicals business to the dye industry chain, suggesting that the improved industry outlook may positively impact the company's profitability [1] Group 3: Stock Performance - Demy Chemical's stock has shown significant volatility over the past week, with a price fluctuation range of 16.19% from February 6 to February 13 [1] - On February 9, the stock hit the daily limit up, increasing by 10.05%, followed by a further rise of 1.89% on February 12, before a slight decline to 10.62 yuan on February 13, down 1.39% [1] - On February 9, institutional investors net bought 24.94 million yuan worth of shares, indicating high short-term capital activity, with a financing purchase amount of 89.58 million yuan on February 12 [1] - Technically, the stock price has broken through the 20-day moving average of 9.39 yuan, with the MACD indicator maintaining a bullish signal, although attention is needed around the resistance level of 11.00 yuan [1]

Core Insights - The report predicts a "front low and back high" trend for the real estate market in 2026, suggesting potential recovery opportunities in the sector [1][3] - It emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the market through inventory reduction and boosting demand and confidence, while also supporting reasonable financing needs of real estate companies [3][4] - The report identifies three main investment lines: stable companies in core cities, "small but beautiful" firms with significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [1][9] Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to face continued pressure in 2025, with a focus on policy measures to prevent a sharp decline [3][4] - The report forecasts a decline in key real estate indicators for 2026, including a projected 8% decrease in sales area to 810 million square meters and a 12% drop in sales revenue to 7.4 trillion yuan [5][6] - It anticipates a gradual recovery in the market, with potential policy and fundamental turning points in Q1 and Q4 of 2026, respectively [7][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals in first and second-tier cities, such as China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou [1][9] - It highlights the potential of Poly Real Estate Group as a "small but beautiful" firm that has made significant sales and land acquisition breakthroughs [9] - The report also points to commercial real estate companies like China Resources Vientiane Life and Swire Properties that are actively exploring new operational models [1][9]