国泰海通发布研报称，航空自9月进入传统淡季，公商需求是影响票价核心力量。9-10月受益于暑运压 制性公商需求的集中释放，票价同比转升。11 月受会展较少而公商客流同比微降，票价同比升幅略有 收窄。12月或受益年底拜访与团建等增加，公商客流占比有所回升，上旬国内裸票价同比微降，国内含 油票价同比仍保持上升；考虑2024年同期收益管理改善，全月票价同比升幅或继续收窄。该行预计 2025Q4将继续大幅减亏，全年将扭亏。 智通财经APP获悉，航空股延续增长趋势，截至发稿，首都机场(00694)涨4.49%，报2.79港元；东方航 空(00670)涨3.43%，报5.12港元；中国国航(00753)涨2.82%，报6.92港元；南方航空(01055)涨2.15%，报 5.69港元。 （原标题：港股异动 | 航空股延续增长趋势 机构料四季度航司将继续大幅减亏 单位座收或显著修复） 信达证券表示，2025年初至今，行业客座率高位持续，国内外航线出行两旺。淡季不淡，客座率高位、 票价有所回正，该行认为航司单位座收或显著修复。2025年1-11月，除国航、吉祥国内线运力同比有所 下降，其余航司国内线运力同比均略有增长；客座率持 ...

国泰海通发布研报称，航空自9月进入传统淡季，公商需求是影响票价核心力量。9-10月受益于暑运压 制性公商需求的集中释放，票价同比转升。11 月受会展较少而公商客流同比微降，票价同比升幅略有 收窄。12月或受益年底拜访与团建等增加，公商客流占比有所回升，上旬国内裸票价同比微降，国内含 油票价同比仍保持上升；考虑2024年同期收益管理改善，全月票价同比升幅或继续收窄。该行预计 2025Q4将继续大幅减亏，全年将扭亏。 信达证券（601059）表示，2025年初至今，行业客座率高位持续，国内外航线出行两旺。淡季不淡，客 座率高位、票价有所回正，该行认为航司单位座收或显著修复。2025年1-11月，除国航、吉祥国内线运 力同比有所下降，其余航司国内线运力同比均略有增长；客座率持续高位，三大航国内线客座率同比增 幅明显；除吉祥外，各航司国内线周转量同比均有增长，其中春秋、东航增速达到8.4%、5.9%，其余 航司增速均在5%以内。 航空股延续增长趋势，截至发稿，首都机场(00694)涨4.49%，报2.79港元；东方航空(00670)涨3.43%， 报5.12港元；中国国航（601111）(00753)涨2.82%，报 ...

要的是稀缺结构 有业界观察人士L总感叹，疯狂扩张的中国航司实在没地方可以飞了，只能变着法地飞欧洲。 那为什么是布鲁塞尔？最直接的原因是布鲁塞尔是小机场，时刻比较宽松，航司有更大的动力参与其中。 国航近日宣布，将于明年3月下旬连续开通两条国内直飞布鲁塞尔航线，把一个原本由海航主导的航点，直接推入正面竞争。 环球旅讯评论员高思伟对此表示认同。他指出，在中国庞大的机队规模和稳定的飞行员队伍支撑下，航空公司仍需要积极开拓新的国际航点，优化海外航 线布局、开拓新航点，以充分利用现有运力。 布鲁塞尔的吸引力，虽然不像巴黎、法兰克福那样热闹，但它拥有三重稀缺价值：稳定的高端政商客源、可早期贡献现金流的腹舱货运，以及能放大欧洲 网络的枢纽节点属性——这才是海航、国航同时加码的原因。 对西南市场而言，这一变化尤为显著。此前从成都前往布鲁塞尔需在第三城市中转，耗时15至20小时；直飞开通后，飞行时间压缩至11小时，节省近8小 时。 竞争的焦点也因此变得清晰：北京线硬刚、成都线切西南、上海线拼频次。 国航入场之前，国内航司长期由海航主导布鲁塞尔航线，吉祥航空作为补充。 3月24日，北京—布鲁塞尔航线将正式运营，两天后，成都—布鲁塞 ...

信达证券（601059）发布研报称，2025年初至今，行业客座率高位持续，国内外航线出行两旺。淡季不 淡，客座率高位、票价有所回正，该行认为航司单位座收或显著修复。同时，随着"反内卷"措施及《中 国航空运输协会航空客运自律公约》的落实，行业恶意低价现象有望消减，或也能带动票价有所修复， 进一步推动航司单位座收回升。叠加油价下行带来的成本下降，航司盈利或能进一步增长。该行看好航 司座收回升带来的盈利修复弹性。该行予行业看好投资评级。 信达证券主要观点如下： 淡季客座率持续高位、票价略有回落 1)供需：运力增速回升，客座率高位提升。根据民航局公布的2025年10月行业最新数据，2025年10月行 业ASK、RPK同比分别+6.2%、+8.9%，较2019年同期+17.3%、+23.4%，相应客座率达到87.4%，同比 +2.2pct，较2019年同期+4.3pct。 根据六大航司(国航、南航、东航、春秋、吉祥、海航)披露的11月运营数据合计情况看，六家航司11月 ASK、RPK同比分别+7.0%、+10.3%，客座率达到85.6%，同比+2.6pct。其中，国内线/国际及地区线 ASK同比分别+4.2%、+13. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2][7]. Core Insights - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor during the off-peak season, with both domestic and international travel thriving. The high load factor and slight recovery in ticket prices suggest a significant improvement in airline unit revenue. The implementation of "anti-involution" measures and the self-regulatory agreement by the China Air Transport Association is expected to reduce malicious low pricing, further supporting ticket price recovery and enhancing airline profitability. Additionally, the decline in oil prices is likely to reduce costs, contributing to further profit growth for airlines. Key airlines to focus on include China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [3][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The industry has seen sustained high passenger load factors since early 2025, with both domestic and international routes performing well. The off-peak season is not as weak as expected, with high load factors and a slight recovery in ticket prices, indicating a potential significant recovery in airline unit revenue. The implementation of self-regulatory measures is expected to mitigate low pricing practices, further supporting ticket price recovery and enhancing airline profitability [3][13]. 2. Off-Peak Passenger Load Factor and Ticket Prices 2.1 Supply and Demand - The capacity growth rate has rebounded, leading to an increase in passenger load factors. In October 2025, the industry’s Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) increased by 6.2% and 8.9% year-on-year, respectively, with a load factor of 87.4%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [4][15]. 2.2 Ticket Prices - Ticket prices have weakened in December, with the average domestic ticket price at 839 yuan, down 7.0% year-on-year. The average ticket price for domestic routes, including fuel, was 709 yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year [4][23]. 2.3 Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation fuel has slightly increased in December, with the domestic aviation fuel price at 6045 yuan per ton, up 3.9% year-on-year. The exchange rate of the Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, with the exchange rate at 7.0602 yuan per dollar as of December 16, 2025, down 1.78% from the end of 2024 [5][37]. 3. Airline Capacity and Load Factors 3.1 Operational Status - In November, most airlines maintained stable capacity growth, with significant increases in international capacity. The passenger load factors for both domestic and international routes have shown year-on-year improvements, significantly increasing compared to 2019 levels [4][43]. 3.2 Fleet Expansion - In November, Air China and China Southern Airlines each added 7 aircraft, marking the highest net increase among the six major airlines. From January to November, China Southern Airlines, Air China, and China Eastern Airlines saw net increases of 47, 26, and 21 aircraft, respectively [4][7].

Group 1 - The aviation stocks experienced a significant increase, with Southern Airlines rising over 6% [1] - China Eastern Airlines and Huaxia Airlines both saw an increase of over 5% [1] - Juneyao Airlines reported a rise of over 4% [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [9] Core Insights - The domestic supply-demand relationship continues to improve, with a notable increase in domestic flight capacity and passenger load factors compared to the previous year [10][11] - The impact of the Japan route on international flights is manageable, with overall operational metrics remaining stable despite some route cancellations [3][54] - The implementation of the "Self-Regulation Agreement for Air Passenger Transport" in August 2025 is expected to help stabilize the market and improve profitability [4][15] Summary by Sections Domestic Routes - In November, the capacity for domestic routes increased by approximately 4.2% year-on-year, while it decreased by about 9.8% month-on-month due to seasonal factors [2][16] - The overall passenger load factor for November improved by approximately 2.1 percentage points year-on-year but decreased by 2.5 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting the seasonal downturn [34][44] - Major airlines like Spring Airlines and China Southern Airlines showed significant year-on-year capacity increases, while the decline in capacity for Juneyao Airlines has narrowed compared to previous months [2][18] International Routes - For international routes, capacity increased by about 15.0% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month decrease of 5.1% [3][54] - The passenger load factor for international routes improved by 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, remaining consistent with October's performance [54][56] - The impact of travel advisories related to Japan is limited, as the affected routes constitute a small portion of the overall international operations [58] Industry Trends - The trend of "anti-involution" in the industry is beginning to show results, with a focus on maintaining supply control and improving load factors [4][15] - The convergence of operational metrics among airlines indicates a unified strategic direction, which is expected to alleviate operational pressures [11][21] - The upcoming months are anticipated to see continued low growth in domestic flight capacity, reinforcing the supply constraints necessary for industry rebalancing [21][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [4]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a recovery, with domestic passenger load factors showing a year-on-year increase. International supply and demand are accelerating [1]. - The overall supply-demand balance is better than in 2019 and 2024, with structural improvements in demand, particularly in business travel and cross-border needs [4]. - Supply constraints are strengthening due to maintenance backlogs and low growth in new aircraft introductions, indicating a potential turning point in the "supply-demand-price" dynamic [4]. Summary by Sections Domestic Operations - In November, the ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth rates were led by Spring Airlines (15.6%), followed by China Southern Airlines (8.7%) and China Eastern Airlines (6.5%). The RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth was also highest for Spring Airlines (18.0%) [1]. - Cumulative data from January to November shows Spring Airlines leading in both ASK (12.0%) and RPK (12.0%) growth rates [1]. International Operations - For international routes in November, the highest ASK growth was recorded by Juneyao Airlines (26.8%), while RPK growth was led by Juneyao Airlines (38.4%) [2]. - Cumulative data from January to November indicates Juneyao Airlines also leads in ASK (41.5%) and RPK (48.3%) growth rates [2]. Regional Operations - In November, Spring Airlines had the highest ASK growth (20.5%) for regional routes, while RPK growth was also led by Spring Airlines (26.4%) [2]. - Cumulative data shows China Southern Airlines leading in ASK growth (2.8%) and China National Airlines leading in RPK growth (4.7%) [2]. Passenger Load Factor - In November, Spring Airlines had the highest passenger load factor at 92.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points [3]. - Cumulative data from January to November shows Spring Airlines maintaining a load factor of 91.5%, unchanged from the previous year [3]. Fleet Growth - As of November 2025, the five listed airlines collectively added 17 aircraft, with a year-on-year fleet increase of 4.0% [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The industry is experiencing a robust supply and demand growth, with November data showing a year-on-year increase in both supply and demand. The passenger load factor has improved, particularly in domestic routes, which have seen a significant increase compared to 2019 levels. In November, the total supply and demand for six listed airlines increased by 7.1% and 10.3% year-on-year, respectively, reaching 110.4% and 116.7% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019. The passenger load factor rose by 2.5 percentage points to 85.6%, which is 4.6 percentage points higher than in November 2019 [6][6][6]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - In November, domestic routes saw supply and demand increase by 4.2% and 6.8% year-on-year, respectively, achieving 113.3% and 118.2% of the levels from 2019. The passenger load factor for domestic routes improved by 2.1 percentage points to 86.6%, which is 3.6 percentage points higher than in 2019. International routes experienced a more significant increase, with supply and demand rising by 15.0% and 20.7% year-on-year, reaching 104.8% and 113.5% of 2019 levels. The passenger load factor for international routes increased by 3.9 percentage points to 83.4%, which is 6.4 percentage points higher than in 2019 [6][6]. Airline Performance - Performance among airlines varied, with Spring Airlines and Eastern Airlines leading in passenger load factors. In November, the three major airlines reported a year-on-year increase in supply and demand of 6.7% and 10.3%, respectively, continuing their recovery trend. Domestic routes for these airlines have returned to 111.6% and 116.6% of 2019 levels. Eastern Airlines had the highest passenger load factor, increasing by 3.0 percentage points to 87.4%, while China National Airlines showed the fastest recovery, with a 3.9 percentage point increase to 83.3% [6][6]. External Factors - External events continue to disrupt demand, particularly on the China-Japan route, which is experiencing short-term weakness. However, the long-term recovery trend for international routes remains intact. Recent policy changes have extended the free cancellation and modification policy for flights on this route until March 28, 2026. Despite the current challenges, the demand for international flights is expected to recover in the medium to long term, supported by resilient ticket prices [6][6].

Hot Stocks - Zengsheng Technology has experienced significant fluctuations in stock turnover rate, indicating a "hot potato" effect [1][23] - Baida Group's stock has seen a large increase recently, posing a risk of subsequent decline [2][26] - Fengfan Co. is in the process of transferring 17.32% of its shares from the controlling shareholder [3][26] Performance - Xinhua Insurance reported a cumulative original insurance premium income of 188.85 billion yuan from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 16% [10][30] - Spring Airlines' passenger turnover increased by 18.02% year-on-year in November [11][30] - China Eastern Airlines' passenger turnover rose by 10.35% year-on-year in November [12][30] - Air China saw a 10.1% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover in November [13][30] - China Southern Airlines reported a 10.42% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover in November [14][30] - Juneyao Airlines experienced an 8.92% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover in November [15][30] Shareholding Changes - Kehua Holdings' shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 3% [16][30] - Huafeng Aluminum's controlling shareholder's concerted party intends to reduce holdings by no more than 2.17% [17][30] - Demei Chemical's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 3% [18][30] Equity Changes - Yunzhu Technology's subsidiary, Chizhou Yunzhu, plans to increase capital and introduce external investors [19][30] - Changqing Group's controlling shareholder and actual controller have terminated the agreement to transfer company shares [20][30] Major Investments - Fosun Pharma's subsidiary plans to invest 1.412 billion yuan in Green Valley Pharmaceutical [21][30] - Aerospace Electronics intends to invest 727 million yuan to increase capital in its subsidiary, Aerospace Rocket Company [25][30] - Pengding Holdings plans to invest a total of 4.297 billion yuan in a Thai park by 2026 [25][30] - Longqi Technology plans to invest 1.5 billion yuan to build an AI + smart terminal digital benchmark factory project [25][30] - Changsha Bank intends to increase capital in its subsidiary, Changyin Wuba, by no more than 1.55 billion yuan [25][30] - Geberga plans to implement a special electronic fiberglass manufacturing project with a total investment of no more than 1 billion yuan [25][30] - TCL Technology's subsidiary plans to purchase 10.77% equity of Shenzhen Huaxing Semiconductor for 6.045 billion yuan [25][30] - Baina Qiancheng intends to acquire 100% equity of Zhonglian Century, with stock suspension [25][30] - Fuda Alloy plans to terminate the acquisition of 52.61% equity of Guangda Electronics [25][30] Other Developments - Zhongwei Co. has been added to the Hong Kong Stock Connect eligible securities list [31][30] - Nanshan Holdings' subsidiary is planning a new infrastructure project for Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT [31][30] - Dazhu Laser's subsidiary has terminated its listing guidance [31][30] - Zhuojin Co. has received a "release on bail pending trial" decision for its controlling shareholder [31][30] - Siyuan Electric plans to apply for H-share issuance and listing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [31][30]