【中信证券交运物流】春运航空数据跟踪点评：关注节后客流叠加效应，继续推荐繁荣周期 特征之一：民航 特征之一：民航客流增速"前低后高"，假期二次出行刺激效果凸显、节后客流有望形成叠加。 【中信证券交运物流】春运航空数据跟踪点评：关注节后客流叠加效应，继续推荐繁荣周期 春运前20天民航、铁路、公路客运量同比+5.4%/+4.9%/+5.4%，关注节后初六、十六波峰客流的叠加效应，料民航 春运客流同增或5.5%~6.0%。 春运前20天民航、铁路、公路客运量同比+5.4%/+4.9%/+5.4%，关注节后初六、十六波峰客流的叠加效应，料民航 春运客流同增或5.5%~6.0%。 未来两个月需求积极因素持续显现，我们继续强调"2026年大航或迎利润表显著改善"。 未来两个月需求积极因素持续显现，我们继续强调"2026年大航或迎利润表显著改善"。 春运数据端表现三个特征： 春运数据端表现三个特征： 根据CADAS数据，春运初期（腊月十五-腊月廿一）票价略低于2025年同期，降幅1.3%；临近春节（腊月廿三-腊 月廿六）票价同比减少扩大至5.5%；但春节期间（正月初一至初四）在"分段式过年"带来二次出行刺激凸显，票 价实现 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes on Southern Airlines and the Aviation Industry Industry Overview - The notes focus on the aviation industry, specifically during the Spring Festival travel period in China, highlighting trends in passenger traffic and pricing dynamics [1][2]. Key Points Passenger Traffic Trends - Passenger traffic for civil aviation, railways, and highways during the first 20 days of the Spring Festival increased by 5.4%, 4.9%, and 5.4% year-on-year respectively, indicating a robust demand environment [1][2]. - It is anticipated that civil aviation passenger traffic will grow by approximately 5.5% to 6.0% during the Spring Festival [6]. Characteristics of Spring Festival Data 1. **Traffic Growth Pattern**: - The growth in civil aviation passenger traffic is characterized by a "low before high" trend, with a significant increase expected post-holiday due to factors such as extended holidays and favorable weather conditions. The pre-holiday period saw a 4.4% year-on-year increase in passenger traffic [3]. - During the holiday period, from New Year's Eve to the seventh day of the new year, passenger traffic is expected to rise to around 8% year-on-year [3]. - Post-holiday, a peak in passenger traffic is expected on the seventh and sixteenth days, with an estimated growth rate of 6% for the subsequent 17 days [3]. 2. **International Routes**: - Negative factors affecting routes to Japan are stabilizing, with reduced flight capacity likely shifting to South Korea and Southeast Asia. The expansion of visa-free policies is expected to maintain high demand for travel to China, contributing positively to airline revenues through 2026 [3]. 3. **Ticket Pricing Dynamics**: - Initial ticket prices during the early Spring Festival period were slightly lower than the previous year, with a decrease of 1.3%. However, prices increased by 5.8% during the peak travel days of the Spring Festival due to the "staggered holiday" effect, which stimulated secondary travel [4]. Investment Recommendations - The Spring Festival of 2026 is viewed as a critical indicator for the aviation industry's recovery, with a strong emphasis on the potential for improved profitability for airlines. Southern Airlines (H+A) is highlighted as a key player with significant cyclical elasticity, alongside other airlines like Huaxia Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines, which are expected to show high earnings certainty [5][6].

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 航空机场 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《为何现阶段我们仍看好航空？——航空 迎来黄金时代之周期持续性探讨》 2026/01/30 《航空"反内卷"初见成效——航空迎来 黄金时代系列报告》 2026/01/20 证券分析师 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 24 日 节中航空量价超预期，飞机供应链 挑战依旧艰巨 看好 ——航空迎来黄金时代之 26 年春运点评 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：油汇大幅波动、经济增速不及预期、航空安全事故风险。 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [47]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel season has seen a record high in cross-regional personnel flow, with an estimated total of 5.08 billion trips in the first 20 days, averaging 250 million trips per day, which is a 5.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [9][10]. - The aviation sector has shown strong performance in both passenger volume and ticket prices, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in passenger volume and a 3.3% increase in average ticket prices during the same period [10][11]. - The 2026 Spring Festival is characterized by two main trends: "secondary travel" and "concentrated return trips," driven by a later Spring Festival and longer holiday period [12][13]. Summary by Sections Passenger Volume and Pricing - In the first 20 days of the Spring Festival, the average daily passenger volume for civil aviation reached 2.376 million, a 5.4% increase year-on-year, while the average ticket price was 1003 yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year [10][11]. - The domestic average passenger load factor was 85.1%, reflecting a 1.1% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand [11]. Market Dynamics - Six listed airlines collectively withdrew 5 aircraft in January 2026, indicating a tightening supply constraint in the industry [26]. - The report highlights that except for Spring Airlines, all other major airlines have shown negative year-on-year growth in capacity deployment, with Spring Airlines leading at 4.5% growth [26]. Demand and Future Outlook - The demand structure in the aviation industry is improving, with a rebound in business travel sentiment since September 2025 [34]. - The introduction of visa-free policies for Canada and the UK starting February 17, 2026, is expected to boost cross-border travel demand [34]. - High passenger load factors are anticipated to lead to increased price elasticity, with the potential for significant price increases in 2026 [35]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines for potential elasticity release, as well as low-cost carrier Spring Airlines for its core competitive advantages [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly focusing on oil transportation and shipbuilding sectors, recommending stocks such as ST Songfa and China Merchants Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in oil shipping, with VLCC TCE rates rising by 24% to $146,385 per day, and a significant increase in demand leading to higher freight rates [4]. - The global energy chain's valuation is on the rise, driven by long-term capacity utilization and mid-cycle profit expectations, suggesting a favorable environment for shipping rates [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the dry bulk market, with the BDI index recording a slight increase of 1.19% to 2,043 points, indicating stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index decreased by 1.41%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.77 percentage points, with the aviation sector experiencing the largest decline at -5.16% [5]. - The report notes that the coastal dry bulk freight index in China fell by 1.76%, while the Baltic Dry Index increased by 1.19% [5]. Oil Transportation - VLCC rates reached a new high of approximately $160,000 per day during the Spring Festival, with expectations for continued strength in the coming weeks [4]. - The report indicates that the average VLCC freight rate increased by 23% week-on-week, reaching $149,564 per day, reflecting tight capacity and strong demand [4]. Dry Bulk Market - The report mentions that the Capesize freight rate decreased by 4.1%, while the Panamax index showed resilience with a 3.5% increase [4]. - The report anticipates that post-holiday demand recovery will be crucial for the dry bulk market, particularly in iron ore shipments [4]. Air Transportation - The report suggests that the airline industry is at a turning point, with potential for significant profit growth due to increased passenger volumes and operational efficiencies [4]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [4]. Express Delivery - The report notes uncertainties in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and competitive pressures, but highlights the strong market position of leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [4]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are reported to be resilient, with the Ministry of Transport data showing a slight decrease in freight volume but overall stability [4]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yields and potential value recovery in undervalued stocks [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in air travel during the Spring Festival, with ticket prices dropping dramatically compared to pre-holiday peaks, making air travel more affordable than train travel for some routes [4][10][12]. Group 1: Air Travel Trends - Data from various platforms indicates a noticeable rise in air travel from the first to the third day of the Lunar New Year, with ticket bookings on the Qunar platform exceeding pre-holiday peaks [4]. - Popular flight routes have seen prices slashed, with some tickets being cheaper than train fares, leading to public surprise at the affordability of flights this year [4][10]. - For instance, the price of a flight from Beijing to Haikou dropped from 1999 yuan before the holiday to 792 yuan on the first day of the Lunar New Year [4]. Group 2: Pricing Insights - The average ticket price for the first 14 days of the Spring Festival was reported at 952.5 yuan, which is a 1.6% increase compared to the previous year [12]. - Specific routes, such as Shenzhen to Shanghai, have seen ticket prices as low as 621 yuan, while train tickets for the same route range from 638 to 705 yuan [12][10]. - The article mentions that some travelers experienced regret after purchasing tickets at higher prices shortly before discovering lower fares [14][15]. Group 3: Travel Behavior Changes - The article notes a shift in travel behavior, with the peak travel day moving from the second day of the Lunar New Year to the first day, indicating a trend towards earlier travel [19]. - The concept of "nested tickets," where travelers utilize layovers to visit additional cities, has gained popularity, with a reported 30% increase in bookings for flights with extended layovers compared to last year [17].

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines, despite being perceived as "stingy," has achieved significant profitability through extreme cost control and a focus on providing the best value for money in the airline industry [7][13]. Group 1: Profitability and Performance - In 2024, among seven listed airlines in A-shares, only Spring Airlines, along with Huaxia Airlines and Juneyao Airlines, reported profits, with Spring Airlines leading at a net profit of 2.273 billion yuan [8]. - For the first quarter of 2025, Spring Airlines maintained its position as the most profitable airline with a net profit of 677 million yuan [9]. - Spring Airlines achieved an average passenger load factor of 91.5% in 2024, surpassing the industry average of 83.5% by 8 percentage points [35]. Group 2: Cost Control Strategies - The core strategy of Spring Airlines revolves around extreme cost control, encapsulated in the "two singles, two highs, two lows" model [19]. - The "two singles" refer to a single aircraft type (Airbus A320) and a single cabin class (economy), which reduces procurement and training costs significantly [20][21]. - The "two lows" indicate low sales and management expenses, with 98.4% of tickets sold through its own platforms, saving over 200 million yuan annually in commissions [24][25]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency - Spring Airlines maximizes aircraft utilization, achieving 6-8 flights per day compared to the industry standard of 4-5 [33]. - The airline's operational efficiency is further enhanced by a low staff-to-aircraft ratio of 80.8:1, the lowest in the domestic market [26]. Group 4: Revenue Generation Model - Spring Airlines employs an innovative revenue model that separates the base fare from ancillary services, allowing customers to choose additional paid services [38]. - In 2024, ancillary revenue reached 1.03 billion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, accounting for 5.15% of total revenue [41]. - This model caters to both budget-conscious travelers and those willing to pay for enhanced services, creating a win-win situation [44]. Group 5: Future of Low-Cost Airlines - The article suggests that the future of China's civil aviation may lean towards low-cost models, as the current market share of low-cost airlines is only 12.7%, compared to over 30% globally [53]. - The industry is expected to see a bifurcation, with low-cost airlines like Spring Airlines targeting mass market needs while traditional carriers focus on premium services [58].

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in air travel during the Chinese New Year, with ticket prices dropping dramatically compared to pre-holiday peaks, making air travel more affordable than train travel in some cases [5][18][29] Group 1: Air Travel Trends - There has been a noticeable rise in flight bookings from the first to the third day of the Lunar New Year, with ticket reservations on platforms like Qunar exceeding pre-holiday levels [5] - Popular flight routes have seen prices slashed, with some tickets being cheaper than train fares, indicating a competitive pricing strategy among airlines [6][18] - For example, the price for flights from Beijing to Haikou dropped from ¥1999 before the holiday to ¥792 on the first day of the New Year, representing a significant price reduction [18] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Many consumers expressed regret over purchasing tickets early, as prices fell sharply closer to the holiday, leading to financial losses due to cancellation fees [11][12][16] - The trend of "hidden" travel options, such as long layovers that allow travelers to visit additional cities, has gained popularity, with a 30% increase in bookings for such flights compared to last year [27] - The extended holiday period this year has encouraged earlier travel, with the peak travel day shifting to the first day of the New Year, promoting a blend of family visits and tourism [29]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the competitive landscape of travel platforms during the peak travel season of the Spring Festival, showcasing various promotional strategies to attract customers and enhance their travel experience. Group 1: Ride-Hailing Services - Didi Chuxing is offering discounts of up to 40% in over 100 cities, with limited-time coupons available for users starting February 6 [1] - Dida Travel emphasizes social connections with its "hometown language" campaign, rewarding drivers and passengers who share the same hometown tag [2] Group 2: Air Travel - Fliggy launched a new marketing initiative called "Travel 24 Seasons," offering travel vouchers and prizes for participants [3] - Spring Airlines is using big data to provide cost-saving strategies, including new routes and discounted tickets, with one-way fares as low as 230 yuan [3] Group 3: Unique Travel Services - Haikou Group introduced five special sightseeing bus routes for the New Year, integrating transportation with cultural tourism [4] - Zhongxin Tourism launched a "World Reunion Year" campaign with a travel package valued at 2026 yuan, offering various discounts and prizes [4] Group 4: Industry Trends - The article identifies key trends in the travel industry, including unprecedented discount levels, diverse promotional strategies, and a focus on personalized services to meet specific customer needs [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [56]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong demand for air travel during the Spring Festival, with a projected growth in passenger numbers of around 5% due to the recovery of international routes and increased domestic travel demand driven by service consumption [8]. - The report notes that the supply of aircraft is expected to grow at a compound rate of approximately 3% over the next three years, indicating a "hardcore" constraint on supply [8]. - High load factors are anticipated to lead to significant price elasticity, particularly for major airlines such as China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, which are expected to see a release of elasticity [8]. Monthly Data Analysis Overall Performance - In January, the overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth rates varied among airlines, with Spring Airlines leading at 4.5% growth, while Hainan Airlines saw a decline of 6.6% [1]. - RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth also showed a similar trend, with Spring Airlines at 6.0% and Hainan Airlines at -4.4% [1]. Domestic Routes - For domestic routes in January, Spring Airlines had the highest ASK growth at 13.3%, while Hainan Airlines had the lowest at -8.5% [2]. - RPK growth for domestic routes was led by Spring Airlines at 14.4%, with Hainan Airlines again at the bottom with -6.3% [2]. International Routes - On international routes, Southern Airlines showed the highest ASK growth at 10.5%, while Spring Airlines experienced a decline of 20.8% [2]. - RPK growth on international routes was also led by Southern Airlines at 8.0%, with Spring Airlines again showing a significant decline of 19.5% [2]. Regional Routes - Spring Airlines led regional routes with an ASK growth of 41.6%, while the lowest was seen in 吉祥 Airlines at -39.4% [2]. - RPK growth for regional routes was similarly led by Spring Airlines at 40.7% [2]. Load Factor - In January, Spring Airlines achieved the highest load factor at 92.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points [3]. - The load factors for other airlines were as follows: Eastern Airlines at 85.0%, 吉祥 Airlines at 84.0%, and Southern Airlines at 83.3% [3]. Fleet Size - In January 2026, the six listed airlines collectively saw a net exit of 5 aircraft from their fleets [3].