Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, specifically recommending China Power, China Shipbuilding, and China Ship Defense, while also highlighting Yangtze River and Songfa shares as potential investments [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates an improvement in new ship orders during November and December, reinforcing the logic of the replacement cycle. The strong second-hand ship prices are positively influencing the new ship market [4]. - The report notes that VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates have exceeded expectations, with a current average of $114,420 per day, despite a slight week-on-week decline of 1%. The report anticipates significant upward potential for both charter rates and second-hand ship prices [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the railway freight volume and highway truck traffic, suggesting steady growth in these sectors [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - VLCC freight rates have shown a 110% increase in Q4 compared to Q3, with one-year charter rates rising by 23%. The report highlights that the second-hand ship prices have yet to reflect these changes [4]. - The Suezmax crude oil tanker rates have decreased by 4% to $71,888 per day, while Aframax rates increased by 3% to $62,987 per day [4]. Air Transportation - The report discusses the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing chain and the ongoing trend of aging aircraft globally. It predicts a significant improvement in airline profitability as the industry approaches a turning point [4]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others, due to their strong demand and supply dynamics [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined: price stabilization leading to profit recovery, continued competitive pressure, and potential mergers and acquisitions [4]. - Companies to watch include Shentong Express, YTO Express, and ZTO Express, with a focus on their performance in the upcoming annual reports [4]. Road and Rail - The report cites data from the Ministry of Transport indicating that from December 1 to December 7, national railway freight volume was 80.19 million tons, a decrease of 2.35% week-on-week [4]. - The report suggests that the highway sector will benefit from two main investment themes throughout 2025: high dividend yields and potential value management catalysts [4].

Group 1 - The duty-free shop concept index declined by 1.60%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with companies like Zhongbai Group, Guangbai Shares, and Youhao Group experiencing significant drops [1] - Among the duty-free shop concept stocks, only four saw price increases, with Lingnan Holdings, Hainan Development, and China Merchants Shekou rising by 1.86%, 0.60%, and 0.45% respectively [1] - The duty-free shop sector experienced a net outflow of 588 million yuan in main funds, with 21 stocks seeing net outflows, and six stocks exceeding 30 million yuan in outflows, led by China Duty Free Group with a net outflow of 174 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The top net outflow stocks in the duty-free shop sector included China Duty Free Group, Caesar Travel, Dongbai Group, and Zhongbai Group, with net outflows of 174 million yuan, 90.89 million yuan, 71.85 million yuan, and 53.13 million yuan respectively [2][3] - Conversely, the stocks with the highest net inflows included China Merchants Shekou, Dalian Commercial Shares, and Youhao Group, with net inflows of 29.57 million yuan, 5.41 million yuan, and 3.71 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The overall trading activity in the duty-free shop sector showed a mix of performance, with some stocks experiencing significant turnover rates, such as Dongbai Group at 27.58% and Hainan Development at 19.43% [2][3]

中国航空业：前三季度盈利，国际航线恢复较快。2025年1-10月，行业ASK/RPK同比增长6.1%/8.2%， 平均客座率85.12%，同比提升1.7个百分点。分公司看，各航司ASK及RPK同比增长，其中国际航线 ASK和RPK增速远高于国内(三大航国内航线ASK仅增长0%-3%，国际航线ASK增速13%-20%)。2025年 前三季度国航/东航/南航分别实现归母净利润18.70/21.03/23.07亿元，三大航有望实现全年盈利。 2026年航空展望：供需格局持续改善，票价同比提升预期强 供给端，2026年预计供给增速仍然较低。 智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，展望2026年，民航国内市场运力投放增速缓慢不改，需求将 延续温和复苏态势，推动客座率再创新高、票价趋势性上涨;国际市场将受益于免签政策以及企业出海 利好效应持续释放，需求乐观增长或比预期更强，从而带动量价表现持续向好。该行预计2026年将是民 航市场量价正循环效应持续显现并被市场广泛认知的一年;也是增长引擎逐步从国内市场切换到国际市 场，从而推动行业量价上涨的一年。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 2025年回顾：全球增速放缓，中国民航迎头赶上 ...

西安咸阳国际机场关于南航等 7 家航空公司搬迁运行的公告 三秦四季，常来长安。西安咸阳国际机场祝您旅途愉快！ 西安咸阳国际机场股份有限公司 来源：1018陕广新闻 亲爱的旅客朋友们： 2025年12月24日22:00起，南方航空（CZ）、厦门航空（MF）、四川航空（3U）、江西航空（RY）、 河北航空（NS）、重庆航空（OQ）、春秋航空（9C）所有国内进出港客运航班将由T3航站楼转至T5 航站楼运营。 乘坐以上航空公司航班出行的旅客，请您提前核对订票信息中的出行日期、所在航站楼，避免走错。如 需帮助，请拨打机场客服热线029-96788，或咨询现场工作人员。 来源：西安咸阳国际机场 2025年12月10日 ...

Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the aviation industry in 2026, driven by a gradual recovery in demand and an expected increase in ticket prices, with domestic market capacity growth remaining slow [6][9] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on major airlines with significant fleet sizes and strong cyclical attributes, such as China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Hainan Airlines, as well as smaller regional airlines like Huaxia Airlines and low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines [6][9] 2025 Aviation Review - Global aviation growth is projected to slow down, with IATA forecasting a 5.8% increase in RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) for 2025, while the Asia-Pacific region is expected to lead with a 9% growth [7][21] - China's aviation industry showed profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, with major airlines like Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern expected to achieve full-year profitability [7][19] - The average passenger load factor in China reached 85.12%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong demand recovery [7][39] 2026 Aviation Outlook - The supply-demand balance is expected to improve, with international travel demand benefiting from visa-free policies and corporate expansion abroad, leading to optimistic growth forecasts [6][9] - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a year where the positive cycle of volume and price in the aviation market becomes widely recognized, with a shift in growth engines from domestic to international markets [6][9] - The report highlights that the average ticket prices are expected to rise due to reduced competition and high load factors, with the industry moving away from aggressive price wars [7][49] Supply Side Analysis - The global backlog of aircraft orders has reached a record high of 17,000 units, but delivery rates have not returned to pre-pandemic levels, leading to a supply gap [7][55] - Major aircraft manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus are struggling to meet delivery targets, which may continue to constrain capacity growth in the coming years [7][55] - The report notes that the utilization rates of existing aircraft have reached peak levels, limiting the potential for further supply increases [7][49] Demand Side Analysis - The report indicates that international travel demand is expected to remain strong, particularly due to favorable visa policies and a growing preference for short-haul destinations among Chinese travelers [7][91] - Domestic business travel is projected to recover gradually, while leisure travel demand remains robust, with a notable increase in the number of young and elderly travelers [7][86] - The report highlights that the recovery in inbound tourism is also expected to continue, supported by visa-free entry policies for foreign visitors [7][100]

苹果公司卖一个iPhone手机壳赚的钱，比全球航空公司运送一位旅客平均赚的7.90美元还多。 "航空业为全球经济贡献了近4%的GDP，支撑了8700万个就业岗位，但行业利润率却薄如蝉翼。苹果公司卖一个 iPhone手机壳赚的钱，比航空公司运送一位旅客赚的7.90美元还多。" 当地时间12月9日，国际航空运输协会（IATA，下称"国际航协"）发布全球航空业最新财务展望，尽管预计2026 年全球航司的盈利创历史新高，但从每位旅客身上赚到的平均净利润只有7.90美元（约合56元人民币），低于 2023年的历史高点8.50美元。 因此，国际航协理事长威利·沃尔什（Willie Walsh）才有了上述感慨。他认为，在整个航空运输价值链中，航空公 司的利润率与发动机、航电（即飞机上所有电子系统的总和）制造商以及许多服务供应商相比严重失衡。"如果能 重新平衡价值链利润分配、减轻监管和税收负担、改善基础设施效率，航空公司将为经济创造更大价值。" 区域盈利差异巨大 "亚太地区仍是全球客运增长的最大贡献者。2026年，该地区载客率预计将达到84.4%，创历史新高。中国和印度 引领区域增长，主要得益于区域内旅游活动的增加和中产群体 ...

Investment Summary - The transportation industry has shown a significant underperformance compared to the broader market, ranking among the lowest in terms of growth within the Shenwan primary industry indices as of December 8, 2025 [15][16] - The implementation of anti-involution policies has positively impacted the fundamentals of certain segments within the transportation sector, particularly benefiting the aviation and express delivery sectors [26][30] 2026 Outlook - The focus for 2026 remains on sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies and high-certainty stocks, with a long-term impact expected from these policies on stock price movements [5][34] - Key sectors to watch include aviation, express delivery, and regional shipping, while high-dividend and low-debt companies are expected to attract more investor interest in weaker cyclical areas [5][34] Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability driven by rising single-package prices, with major companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express showing significant improvements [6][35] - The trend of price competition has been curtailed, leading to a decrease in package volume growth as companies focus on maintaining service quality and profitability [6][38] - The competitive strategies among companies have diverged, with YTO and Shentong performing strongly, while Yunda has struggled with profitability and market share [42][53] Aviation Sector - The aviation sector has experienced a notable improvement in performance since Q2 2025, with major airlines reporting increased profitability compared to the previous year [63][64] - The focus for 2026 will be on the transition from high passenger load factors to higher ticket prices, supported by controlled supply and strong demand [69][87] - Major airlines are expected to maintain cautious procurement strategies, with a projected fleet growth of around 5% in 2026 [69][80] Highway Sector - The highway sector has faced significant adjustments in stock prices, leading to a more rational market approach towards high-dividend investments [8][4.1] - Following substantial adjustments, the attractiveness of highway stocks has improved, with a focus on companies with high dividend ratios and low debt levels [8][4.3]

| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入 (元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600221 海航控股 | | 1.42 Z | 9.60% | -8531.44万 | -5.75% | -5701.35万 | -3.84% | | 600115 中国东航 | | 2314.58万 | 9.64% | -1843.25万 | -7.68% | -471.33万 | -1.96% | | 601111 | 中国国航 | 982.10万 | 3.89% | -1642.98万 | -6.50% | 660.88万 | 2.62% | | 600004 白云机场 | | 395.43万 | 3.78% | 208.52万 | 1.99% | -603.95万 | -5.77% | | 002928 华夏航空 | | 304.89万 | 2.53% | -340.09万 | -2.82% | 35.20万 | 0.29% | | 000089 深圳机场 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：中金研究，作者：郑学建，冯启斌，吴其坤，杨鑫 2026年将是航空供需真正反转之年，行业逐渐进入供不应求的局面。步步为营——中国民航业经历多年供给低增速，航空需求的增长逐渐消化过剩运力， 2026年供需紧张使得行业客座率将再攀高峰（我们预计2026年客座率87%）；峰回路转——行业票价或将温和抬升以应对供给不足，民航业真正进入向上 周期。 关注航空淡季投资机会。过往的航空投资关注旺季，但供给扰动可能导致2026年行业淡季供需更为紧张，淡季票价涨幅或更大，因此淡季上市公司业绩改 善幅度可能也更大。 摘要 供给：产能不足+发动机扰动，2026年有效供给依然紧张，我们预计2026年全行业ASK增速2.7%。波音和空客产能恢复较慢（当前产能仅有疫情前约7 成），同时全球航空供应链问题特别是发动机质量问题依然存在且持续时间较久，我们预计2026年中国航空公司客运机队同比增速约2.1%。当前飞机利 用率已处于高位，2026年进一步提升空间有限。 需求：韧性依然，受供给约束我们预计2026年增速约5%。受供给紧张和客座率提升空间有限的约束，我们预计2026年实际需求同比增速约5%（我们认为 潜在需求同比增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to experience a significant supply-demand reversal in 2026, transitioning into a state of supply shortage, with an anticipated passenger load factor reaching 87% [2][40][44] Supply - The effective supply will remain tight in 2026, with an expected ASK growth rate of 2.7%. Boeing and Airbus are recovering production capacity slowly, currently at about 70% of pre-pandemic levels, and global supply chain issues, particularly with engine quality, persist [4][18] - The delivery volume from COMAC is expected to decline significantly in 2025 due to global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, limiting the short-term impact of domestic aircraft on industry capacity [7][20] - Engine issues are affecting the availability of aircraft, with an increase in grounded planes expected in 2026 due to technical and quality problems with mainstream engines [9][11] Demand - Demand remains resilient, with an expected growth rate of about 5% in 2026, constrained by supply limitations. The return of business travelers is expected to support this growth [22][36] - The domestic aviation demand growth rate is still higher than that of rail, indicating strong resilience and some irreplaceable demand for air travel [25][30] Ticket Prices - Ticket prices are projected to increase moderately in 2026, approaching 2019 levels, with seasonal fluctuations expected. The price increase in the off-peak season may exceed that of the peak season due to tighter supply [45][48]