NO.3中信证券：继续看好未来两年航司业绩释放 中信证券研报表示，民航机队产能释放受新增飞机低引进、发动机检修、航材备件等因素制约，旺季机 队产能利用率愈发临近极限状态，近期公商务需求持续复苏，期待2026年政策端进一步刺激因私出行， 再次强调"重视航司盈利拐点"。三季度大航的国际线客公里收益媲美国内，改变2015年以来国际线收益 水平偏弱的局面，"向远处飞、向国际飞、向新兴市场飞"的策略在低油价、国内需求弱复苏背景下进一 步摊薄单位扣油成本。2025年大航有望实现疫后首次利润转正，成为利润释放周期起点，我们继续看好 未来两年航司业绩释放。 NO.2中信建投：低空经济市场规模有望继续保持增长 中信建投（601066）研报指出，2024年是低空经济发展元年，未来中国低空经济市场万亿元蓝海。2023 年我国低空经济市场规模超5000亿元，随着下游应用领域的不断扩大，未来有望继续保持增长，按照民 航和物流数据，设备价值量占运营收入的5-15%，基础建设占运营收入的20%。根据《通用航空装备创 新应用实施方案(2024-2030年)》提出到2030年形成万亿级市场规模。 ｜2025年12月5日星期五｜ NO.1中信证 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，民航机队产能释放受新增飞机低引进、发动机检修、航材备 件等因素制约，旺季机队产能利用率愈发临近极限状态，近期公商务需求持续复苏，期待2026年政策端 进一步刺激因私出行，再次强调"重视航司盈利拐点"。三季度大航的国际线客公里收益媲美国内，改变 2015年以来国际线收益水平偏弱的局面，"向远处飞、向国际飞、向新兴市场飞"的策略在低油价、国内 需求弱复苏背景下进一步摊薄单位扣油成本。2025年大航有望实现疫后首次利润转正，成为利润释放周 期起点，继续看好未来两年航司业绩释放。 中信证券主要观点如下： 按图索骥：数观季报挖掘边际变化信号，短期公商务需求持续恢复有望与汇率温和升值共振。 特征之一，根据样本航司公告，国内航司国际线RRPK(客公里收益)媲美国内线，运力倾斜国际远程航 线，在低油价&国内需求弱复苏的背景下，通过运力增投国际远程航线的策略提升飞机利用率、摊薄单 位成本，同时通过提升中转旅客比例增厚座收对收益端贡献的策略或优于单纯囿于国内线客公里收益的 经营策略。 之二，航油成本压力的缓解仍为利润释放重要因素，发动机检修规模及阶段经营策略带来的机队利用率 差异推动单位扣 ...

中信证券研报表示，民航机队产能释放受新增飞机低引进、发动机检修、航材备件等因素制约，旺季机 队产能利用率愈发临近极限状态，近期公商务需求持续复苏，期待2026年政策端进一步刺激因私出行， 再次强调"重视航司盈利拐点"。三季度大航的国际线客公里收益媲美国内，改变2015年以来国际线收益 水平偏弱的局面，"向远处飞、向国际飞、向新兴市场飞"的策略在低油价、国内需求弱复苏背景下进一 步摊薄单位扣油成本。2025年大航有望实现疫后首次利润转正，成为利润释放周期起点，我们继续看好 未来两年航司业绩释放。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the logistics and transportation industry, particularly the integration of unmanned vehicles and the profitability of airlines [1][2]. Key Points on Unmanned Vehicles - Unmanned vehicle procurement is expected to more than double, leading to cost reductions in the last-mile delivery segment [1]. - Forecasted unmanned vehicle scales for 2024 are as follows: - SF Express: 800 units - ZTO Express: over 1000 units - YTO Express: 500 units - Shentong Express: 200-300 units - By 2025, leading express companies are anticipated to see unmanned vehicle scales double [1]. - The price of the E-series unmanned logistics vehicle from Jiushi Intelligent has dropped to 19,800 yuan, with a monthly subscription service for FSD starting at 1,800 yuan [1]. - Different procurement strategies are being adopted by express companies: - SF Express is utilizing a leasing model for quicker deployment. - The Tongda system is supporting franchisees in procuring unmanned vehicles to reduce costs [1]. - There is an expectation for further opening of road rights, which would enhance cost reductions in last-mile delivery through unmanned vehicles [1]. Key Points on Airline Profitability - The domestic airline revenue management strategy has begun to show effects, with domestic ticket prices experiencing year-on-year growth [3]. - It is projected that the year-on-year decline in seat revenue for listed airlines in Q2 will narrow to 3%-4% [3]. - Due to OPEC+ continuing to increase production unexpectedly from May to July, it is anticipated that airline unit fuel costs will decrease by approximately 18% year-on-year by Q2 2025 [3]. - The correlation between ticket prices and fuel costs suggests that the three major airlines are likely to achieve positive profits in Q2, with private airlines also expected to show year-on-year growth [3]. - There may be a decline in volume and price data following the exam period and the Dragon Boat Festival, which could present a reverse layout opportunity [3]. - Recommendations include: - Juneyao Airlines - Huaxia Airlines - Spring Airlines - Air China H - China Southern Airlines H [3]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the profitability turning point for airlines and the potential for unmanned vehicles to significantly impact cost structures in logistics [1][3].