行 业 及 产 业 电力设备/ 光伏设备 2025 年 09 月 22 日 光伏玻璃库存创近一年新低，看好 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 马天一 A0230525040004 maty@swsresearch.com 联系人 李冲 (8621)23297818× lichong@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 后续盈利修复 看好 ——光伏行业点评 - ⚫ 事件：根据百川孚盈数据显示，9 月 19 日行业库存量 130 万吨，创近一年新低；根据 SMM 数据显示，8 月底光伏玻璃开工率水平也在持续下降，截至 8 月底，光伏玻璃产 能为 12.9 万吨/天，行业开工率为 51.59%。 ⚫ 反内卷促进价格上涨：行业自律与政策引导共促复苏。光伏玻璃行业的"反内卷"行动 已成为推动价格回升的关键因素。2025 年 7 月，多家光伏玻璃企业计划集体减产 30%，这是行业应对恶性竞争的重要举措。事 ...

证券日报网讯金现代（300830）9月18日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司积极开展数据要素领 域的产品建设，截至目前核心产品矩阵已覆盖融合集成平台、指标平台及智能问数平台等软件，可深度 满足企业在数据整合、分析与高效应用等场景的需求，目前已服务江淮汽车（600418）、福莱特 （601865）、南网数字科技、亿力吉奥等众多行业标杆客户。凭借在数据管理能力方面的优势，公司近 年来先后获得中国电子信息行业联合会认证的"DCMM数据管理能力成熟度稳健级(三级)"资质、"山东 省数据要素领域突破性创新技术奖"等权威认可，标志着公司的数据管理与应用水平已达到行业先进标 准，为后续持续服务客户、创造更多价值奠定坚实基础。 ...

Market Overview - On September 18, the photovoltaic equipment sector declined by 2.2%, with Fulete leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3831.66, down 1.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13075.66, down 1.06% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the photovoltaic equipment sector included: - Tongling Co., Ltd. (301168) with a closing price of 42.55, up 5.37% [1] - ST Mubang (603398) at 7.19, up 4.96% [1] - Yijing Photovoltaic (600537) at 4.50, up 3.21% [1] - Major decliners included: - Fucai Te (601865) at 17.76, down 5.88% [2] - JinkoSolar (002459) at 12.96, down 5.54% [2] - Yamaton (002623) at 21.20, down 4.80% [2] Capital Flow - The photovoltaic equipment sector experienced a net outflow of 30.2 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 19.89 billion yuan [2] - The sector's capital flow details indicate that: - Jinlang Technology (300763) had a net inflow of 1.03 billion yuan from institutional investors [3] - DiKe Co., Ltd. (300842) saw a net inflow of 13.89 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - ST Quanzhang (300093) had a net inflow of 11.88 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Fuyao Glass experienced a decline in stock price, dropping by 5.03% to 17.92 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 536 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.54%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 41.985 billion CNY [1] - Fuyao Glass Group Co., Ltd. is located in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province, and was established on June 24, 1998. It was listed on February 15, 2019. The company's main business includes the research, production, and sales of photovoltaic glass, float glass, engineering glass, and household glass, as well as the mining and sales of quartz for glass and EPC photovoltaic power station engineering construction [1] - The revenue composition of Fuyao Glass is as follows: photovoltaic glass accounts for 89.76%, power generation income 3.16%, engineering glass 3.14%, other (supplementary) 1.98%, household glass 1.58%, float glass 0.36%, and mining products 0.01% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, data shows that one fund under Dacheng Fund has a significant position in Fuyao Glass. Dacheng Shengshi Selected Flexible Allocation Mixed A (002945) held 361,800 shares in the second quarter, accounting for 5.43% of the fund's net value, ranking as the eighth largest holding [2] - The estimated floating loss for Dacheng Shengshi Selected Flexible Allocation Mixed A (002945) today is approximately 343,700 CNY. The fund was established on December 20, 2017, with a latest scale of 101 million CNY. Year-to-date return is 21.66%, ranking 4209 out of 8172 in its category; the one-year return is 48.48%, ranking 3498 out of 7980; and the return since inception is 133.7% [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the recent decline in the stock price of Fuyao Glass, which dropped by 5.03% to 17.92 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 536 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.54%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 41.985 billion CNY [1] - Fuyao Glass Group Co., Ltd. is based in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province, and was established on June 24, 1998. It was listed on February 15, 2019. The company's main business includes the research, production, and sales of photovoltaic glass, float glass, engineering glass, and household glass, as well as the mining and sales of quartz for glass and EPC photovoltaic power station construction [1] - The revenue composition of Fuyao Glass is as follows: photovoltaic glass accounts for 89.76%, power generation income 3.16%, engineering glass 3.14%, other (supplementary) 1.98%, household glass 1.58%, float glass 0.36%, and mining products 0.01% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, only one fund under Huatai-PineBridge has a significant position in Fuyao Glass. The fund, Huatai-PineBridge CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index Enhanced A (013816), held 1.3 million shares in the second quarter, unchanged from the previous period, representing 3.09% of the fund's net value, making it the seventh-largest holding [2] - The fund Huatai-PineBridge CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index Enhanced A (013816) was established on October 26, 2021, with a current scale of 209 million CNY. Year-to-date, it has achieved a return of 18.04%, ranking 2932 out of 4222 in its category; over the past year, it has returned 34.06%, ranking 3206 out of 3804; since inception, it has incurred a loss of 45.68% [2]

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,876.34, up by 0.37% [4] - The New Materials sector outperformed, with a weekly increase of 2.50%, surpassing the growth of the ChiNext Index by 0.39% [6] Industry Commentary - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from the "Automobile Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan" issued by eight departments, highlighting opportunities in upstream new materials [6] - The plan aims for approximately 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, a year-on-year growth of about 3%, with new energy vehicle sales projected to reach 15.5 million, growing by around 20% [6] Company Analysis: Kingdee International (00268.HK) - Kingdee International reported a revenue of 3.192 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 98 million yuan, improving by 55.1% [10] - The cloud subscription business generated 1.684 billion yuan, up 22.1% year-on-year, with an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of 3.73 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.5% increase [10] - The company’s gross margin improved to 65.63%, a rise of 2.39 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the higher proportion of high-margin cloud subscription revenue [10] Company Analysis: Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) - Zhongji Xuchuang's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 14.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.0%, with a net profit of 4.0 billion yuan, up 69.4% [14] - The company is expected to maintain its position as a global leader in optical modules, with a focus on increasing production capacity for 1.6T products [12][15] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve due to the rising proportion of high-end silicon optical products [15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the new materials sector related to the automotive industry, particularly "Shidai New Materials" and "Jundida" [6] - For Kingdee International, the expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.03, 0.10, and 0.17, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 528.8, 151.8, and 85.1, respectively, recommending a "Buy-A" rating [13] - Zhongji Xuchuang is expected to achieve net profits of 93.5 billion yuan, 180.8 billion yuan, and 248.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "Buy-A" rating [16]

Market Trends - The domestic textile and apparel export from January to August 2025 saw a 1.6% increase in yarn, fabric, and products, while clothing and accessories experienced a 1.7% decline [3] - Major Taiwanese textile manufacturers reported a general revenue decline in August 2025, with specific companies like Yuanyuan Group and Fengtai Enterprises showing declines of 9.7% and 3.66% respectively [3][4] Company Analysis - **博威合金 (601137.SH)**: In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.22 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year, with net profit reaching 680 million yuan, up 6.0% [7] - **蜜雪集团 (02097.HK)**: The company is projected to have EPS of 1.82, 1.94, and 2.38 for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.5, 12.7, and 10.3, indicating a "Buy-A" rating [10][11] - **汉得信息 (300170.SZ)**: The company reported a revenue of 15.75 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 3.54% increase, with net profit slightly up by 1.90% [21][23] Industry Insights - The textile manufacturing sector is experiencing cautious order placements due to tariff disturbances, with companies like Shenzhou International and Kairun Co. showing strong performance certainty for the year [4][5] - The REITs market in China is expanding, with 68 listed REITs and a total market value of 205.5 billion yuan as of H1 2025, indicating significant growth potential [14][16] Investment Recommendations - For the apparel sector, brands like 361 Degrees and Anta Sports are recommended due to their strong online growth and effective cost management [4][5] - In the textile manufacturing sector, companies such as Shenzhou International and Kairun Co. are highlighted for their stable performance and low valuations [5] - In the gold and jewelry retail sector, companies like Laopuyin and Chaohongji are recommended due to the rising gold prices and upcoming consumption peaks [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the renewable energy sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry based on recent developments and market trends [4][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent "anti-involution" actions in the photovoltaic industry have reached the highest strategic level in the country, signaling a positive trend for the sector. The focus is on capacity integration in the silicon material segment and strengthening price regulation across the industry [4]. - The new policy initiatives, including the "New Energy + Storage" market mechanism, are expected to enhance the participation of new energy sources in the electricity market, which will be crucial for the industry's growth [3][22]. - The report emphasizes that the photovoltaic industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with future policy strength being a key variable influencing the industry's trajectory. It anticipates a shift towards high-quality development in the medium to long term, driven by technological upgrades and market optimization [4][5]. Weekly Market Review - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.65% and 2.10%, respectively. The Shenwan Electric Power Equipment Index saw a modest increase of 0.53%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.85 percentage points [12][19]. - Within the sub-sectors, photovoltaic equipment and wind power equipment experienced declines of 3.28% and 2.04%, respectively, while battery and grid equipment saw increases of 1.28% and 1.02% [12][16]. Key Sector Tracking - The report notes the release of the "New Type Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025-2027)" by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, which aims to enhance the utilization of new energy storage and optimize resource allocation in the electricity market [3][22]. - The report also mentions the first mechanism electricity prices for renewable energy, with wind power priced at 0.319 yuan/kWh and photovoltaic at 0.225 yuan/kWh, reflecting a decrease of 43% and 19.2% compared to previous benchmark prices [23]. Investment Recommendations - For the photovoltaic sector, the report suggests focusing on companies with clear alpha and those in the silicon material, glass, and battery segments, such as Aiko Solar, Flat Glass Group, and GCL-Poly Energy [4]. - In the wind power sector, the report recommends attention to companies like Goldwind Technology and Yunda Co., which are well-positioned in the domestic wind power supply chain [4]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of the electric vehicle sector in China, recommending investment in battery and structural component manufacturers that benefit from low upstream raw material prices, such as CATL and EVE Energy [5].

Core Viewpoint - The glass industry, particularly the photovoltaic glass sector, is experiencing a positive shift in supply and demand dynamics, leading to price increases and improved profitability for leading companies like Fuyao Glass [1] Industry Summary - In September, the price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass increased by 2 yuan per square meter compared to early August, indicating better-than-expected supply-demand improvements and a decline in industry inventory days [1] - The photovoltaic glass industry is characterized by a favorable market structure, with Fuyao Glass expected to outperform the industry due to its leading position, potentially benefiting from a recovery in profitability as component production resumes [1] Company Summary - According to Changjiang Securities, Fuyao Glass is likely to be among the first to benefit from the recovery in profitability, especially if component production resumes, enhancing expectations for margin improvement [1] - CITIC Securities anticipates that due to previous production cuts, supply and demand have reached a near balance, and if the price increase for photovoltaic glass is implemented, the company could turn losses into profits [1] - The photovoltaic glass segment is noted for its high level of self-discipline within the supply chain, with a long-term expectation of dynamic balance in supply and demand [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive outlook for Fuyao Glass (06865), with its stock price increasing by 3.56% to HKD 12.21, and a trading volume of HKD 57.85 million [1] - Changjiang Securities reports that the price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass has increased by 2 CNY per square meter compared to early August, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and decreasing industry inventory days [1] - The photovoltaic glass industry is in a favorable position, with Fuyao Glass expected to outperform the industry due to its leading position, potentially benefiting from a recovery in profitability as component production resumes [1] Group 2 - CITIC Construction Investment anticipates that the supply-demand balance has been restored following previous production cuts, and if the price increase for photovoltaic glass in September is realized, the company could turn a profit [1] - The photovoltaic glass segment is characterized by high self-discipline within the photovoltaic supply chain, with expectations for long-term dynamic balance in supply and demand [1] - Market focus in the short term will be on the sustainability of the September price increase and the acceptance of this increase by downstream customers, as well as the resumption of production for photovoltaic glass [1]