机构：信达国际 研究员：陈乐怡 第三季收入跌幅收窄，第四季旅遊旺季收入料重拾動能公司首三季收入為398.62 億元人民幣，按年跌 7.3%，純利為30.52億元人民幣，按年跌22.1%，單計第三季收入117.11 億元人民幣，按年微跌0.4%，跌 幅較上半年的10%收窄。海南離島免稅7 至9 月銷售額合計54.02 億元人民幣，按年跌2.6%，按年降幅較 4 至6 月收窄1.6 個百分點，其中9 月海南離島免稅月度銷售額按年增長3.4%，在同期低基數下錄得18 個月以來首次增長 ，公司第三季收入表現優於海南全島。海南旅遊旺季推動下，10 月至11 月離島免稅 銷售均錄雙位數按年增長，新增城市市內免稅店下半年集中開業，加上免稅政策利好，第四季收入料重 拾增長。 海南封關首月數據強勁，春節假期數據料成潛化劑海南自由貿易港自2025 年12 月18 日正式啟動全島封 關運作，免稅優惠對象擴大至所有自海南島離境的旅客，早期「離島免稅」主要面向從海南飛往內地其 他地區的旅客，重點是境內旅客，最新安排則可覆蓋國內外旅客。而每名海南居民在一年內有離島紀 錄，不限次數購買離島免稅商品，額度10 萬元人民幣，變相代購重臨，消費 ...

是的，你没看错，台铃也要IPO了，还是港股IPO。这里有两个现状，一是台铃，街面上跑得最多的快递车，带车兜的那种，一般都是台铃的；二是最近听 到的IPO企业，怎么都是港股呢，港股港股还是港股。 我的第一台电动车是爱玛，第二台就果断换成了台铃了，当时好像被销售的蛊惑名词，石墨烯电池给吸引了。但是后来使用过程中，觉得还不错，台铃， 行。再说了，这也是深圳本土的企业。陆丰三兄弟创建的企业，有段时间，几乎天天都要开车经过这家公司，当时就想，这家公司离上市应该不远了。 1月30日，台铃科技股份有限公司正式向港交所主板递交上市申请，中信证券、招商证券国际担任联席保荐人。招股书显示，公司2025年前三季度净利润同 比增长达122.4%，展现强劲增长动能。 市场地位与业绩亮眼 渠道方面，公司已建立起覆盖中国内地所有省份的销售网络，截至2025年9月拥有超5500家经销商及27000多家零售门店。同时，海外拓展步伐加快，在东南 亚、非洲、拉丁美洲及欧洲等地拥有412家经销商，海外收入成为增长新引擎。 在国家"双碳"战略推动下，电动轻型交通工具市场持续扩容。据预测，中国内地市场规模将于2029年达2271亿元，2025–2029 ...

LVMH has resurfaced as a problem for French stocks after a brief respite last year https://t.co/qD8Q1WX9cW ...

個股推介 中國中免(1880.HK) 2026 年 1 月 30 日星期五 第三季收入跌幅收窄，第四季旅遊旺季收入料重拾動能 公司首三季收入為 398.62 億元人民幣，按年跌 7.3%，純利為 30.52 億元人民幣，按年跌 22.1%，單計第三季收入 117.11 億元人民幣，按 年微跌 0.4%，跌幅較上半年的 10%收窄。海南離島免稅 7 至 9 月銷 售額合計 54.02 億元人民幣，按年跌 2.6%，按年降幅較 4 至 6 月收窄 1.6 個百分點，其中 9 月海南離島免稅月度銷售額按年增長 3.4%，在 同期低基數下錄得 18 個月以來首次增長 ，公司第三季收入表現優於 海南全島。海南旅遊旺季推動下，10 月至 11 月離島免稅銷售均錄雙 位數按年增長，新增城市市內免稅店下半年集中開業，加上免稅政策 利好，第四季收入料重拾增長。 海南封關首月數據強勁，春節假期數據料成潛化劑 海南自由貿易港自 2025 年 12 月 18 日正式啟動全島封關運作，免稅 優惠對象擴大至所有自海南島離境的旅客，早期「離島免稅」主要面 向從海南飛往內地其他地區的旅客，重點是境內旅客，最新安排則可 覆蓋國內外旅客。而每名 ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a significant drop, primarily due to the decline in healthcare insurance stocks, as the U.S. government proposed a lower-than-expected increase in Medicare payments, impacting the profitability outlook for insurance companies [7][9] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and increased military exercises by the U.S. have heightened risk aversion, leading to a surge in investments in precious metals, although this also raises the risk of profit-taking [7][9] - For asset allocation, it is suggested to maintain approximately 5-10% of assets in gold if concerns about geopolitical issues and inflation persist, while silver, being more volatile, should be allocated a smaller percentage of 3-5% [7] - In terms of operational strategy, entering precious metals near historical highs carries a higher risk of retracement, necessitating strict risk management [7] - Despite pressure on insurance stocks, some technology and semiconductor stocks continue to attract capital, indicating a rotation within sectors rather than a complete withdrawal from the stock market [7] Key International News - The U.S. Federal Reserve began a two-day meeting, with the Dow Jones dropping as much as 549 points before closing down 408 points or 0.83%. The S&P 500 reached a new high before closing up 0.41% [9] - UnitedHealth's stock plummeted 19.6% after reporting a 96% year-on-year drop in fourth-quarter earnings, despite a revenue increase of over 12% that fell short of estimates [9] - The U.S. military's ongoing pressure on Iran has escalated geopolitical tensions, pushing international gold prices to rise sharply, with spot gold reaching a peak of $5,190.42 per ounce [9] - LVMH reported a fourth-quarter operating profit of €17.76 billion, with a 5.1% year-on-year decline in operating revenue, although internal sales revenue unexpectedly grew by 1% [9] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index rose 361 points to close at 27,126, marking a continuous five-day increase with a total gain of 639 points or 2.41% [11] - Chinese stocks have shown strong performance, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an overweight rating on the Chinese market, highlighting opportunities from the "14th Five-Year Plan," artificial intelligence, global market expansion by Chinese companies, and increased shareholder returns [11] - Anta Sports announced an agreement to acquire a 29.06% stake in Puma SE for €1.506 billion, positioning Anta as the largest shareholder of Puma [11] - Alibaba's Tmall International saw significant growth, with 2,415 new overseas brands expected to open stores by 2025, indicating a double-digit growth in new brand entries [11] Key Company Analysis - Shanghai Fudan (1385) benefits from demand in automotive electronics, white goods, and IoT, maintaining stable gross margins and a clear growth logic supported by national policies [19] - China Pharmaceutical Group (1093) continues to lead in profitability and gross margin, actively advancing innovative drugs and licensing, which have become significant growth drivers [19] - Xun Ce (3317) faces short-term revenue decline due to macroeconomic conditions but has potential for recovery as demand rebounds or cost controls improve [19] U.S. Company Insights - Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to approximately $41.45-41.55 billion, reflecting confidence in demand for AI CRM and related products [21] - IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) reported third-quarter revenue of approximately $39.9 million, a year-on-year increase of about 222%, and raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $106-110 million, indicating strong contract momentum [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain stable performance despite high base effects, with currency fluctuations potentially causing short-term profit disturbances. The expansion of Miu Miu and the consolidation of Versace are anticipated to contribute new revenue streams in 2026. The overall customer base remains robust as the industry transitions into a new normal [2][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections (in million euros) are as follows: - 2024A: 5,432 - 2025E: 5,716 (+5.2%) - 2026E: 6,162 (+7.8%) - 2027E: 6,640 (+7.8%) [4] - Gross profit estimates (in million euros): - 2024A: 4,337 - 2025E: 4,573 - 2026E: 4,935 - 2027E: 5,325 [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million euros): - 2024A: 839 - 2025E: 882 (+5.2%) - 2026E: 959 (+8.7%) - 2027E: 1,046 (+9.0%) [4] Market Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a retail sales growth of approximately high single digits in 2025, leading the industry. The retail growth rate for Q4 2025 is projected to be in the mid-single digits, slightly slowing from Q3. Miu Miu's retail growth rate for Q4 2025 is expected to be between 15-20% [11]. - The company plans to expand Miu Miu's retail space by 10%-15%, focusing on the Eurasian region and further penetrating the U.S. market by 2027. Prada aims to balance its strategic price points while enhancing its product offerings to attract both mass and high-net-worth customers [11]. Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of: - 2025E: 20X - 2026E: 14.88 - 2027E: 13.65 [11] - The Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is expected to decrease from 3.24 in 2024A to 2.42 in 2027E [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment philosophy focused on identifying mispriced securities through understanding the financial drivers of small cap companies, utilizing DCF model valuation to assess risk-to-reward dynamics. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment strategy is centered on small cap companies across US, Canadian, and European markets [1] - The approach is not confined to traditional investment styles such as value, dividend, or growth investing, but rather considers all prospects of a stock [1] Group 2: Valuation Methodology - A DCF model valuation is highlighted as a key tool in revealing the true value of a company [1] - The methodology aims to uncover potential investment opportunities by analyzing financials and market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - LVMH's financial performance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, continues to be impacted by the industry's cyclical downturn, with total revenue declining by 5% to €80.8 billion, operating profit down 9% to €17.755 billion, and net profit down 13% to €10.878 billion, primarily due to poor performance in the fashion and leather goods segment [2][5] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, LVMH's revenue decreased by 5.1% year-on-year to €22.72 billion, although organic revenue grew by 1%, marking the second consecutive quarter of growth after two quarters of decline [4] - The fashion and leather goods segment saw organic sales decline by 3% in Q4, a worsening from the 2% decline in Q3, while the perfume and cosmetics segment fell by 1% [4] - The watch and jewelry segment, along with premium retail businesses like DFS and Sephora, performed well with organic revenue growth of 8% and 7% respectively in Q4, exceeding market expectations [4] Group 2: Segment Performance - For the full year 2025, the fashion and leather goods segment revenue fell by 8% to €37.77 billion, while the watch and jewelry segment saw a slight decline of 1% to €10.486 billion [5] - The perfume and cosmetics segment revenue decreased by 3% to €8.174 billion, and the wine and spirits segment revenue dropped by 9% to €5.358 billion [5] Group 3: Market Insights - The Asian market, particularly China, showed signs of improvement in the second half of 2025, with organic revenue growth of 1% in Q4, contrary to previous expectations of a decline [9] - The Japanese market experienced a 13% decline in organic revenue for the year, while the European market fell by 1%, and the U.S. market remained flat compared to the previous year [9] Group 4: Strategic Moves - LVMH's CEO Bernard Arnault announced the acquisition of additional shares in Loro Piana for approximately €1 billion, increasing the group's stake from 85% to 94%, with the family retaining 6% [7] - The company is focusing on maintaining product quality and scarcity while controlling the pace of expansion, as Loro Piana has shown rapid growth [7] Group 5: Industry Challenges - The luxury goods sector is facing challenges due to rising living costs, geopolitical uncertainties, and weakened consumer confidence, which are suppressing global luxury spending [11] - The previous strategy of frequent price increases in the luxury sector is showing adverse effects, leading to consumer dissatisfaction and a potential shift in focus towards demand recovery and value reconstruction in 2026 [12]

此外，中国中免拟斥3.95亿美元收购DFS大中华业务，并引入LVMH作为新股东。东吴证券发布研报 称，本次收购是中免的首次跨境并购，中免将进一步强化在港澳地区免税市场的优势地位，整合DFS会 员、品牌和门店资源，拓展海外渠道，推进国际化战略。LVMH作为股东和战略合作方，有利于推进旗 下品牌与中免在各个渠道的进一步合作。 中国中免（601888）(01880)午后涨超5%，截至发稿，涨4.85%，报94港元，成交额2.07亿港元。 消息面上，1月21日，财政部等五部门合印发《关于口岸进境免税店有关事宜的通知》，提出在武汉天 河国际机场等41个口岸各新设1家口岸进境免税店，同时调整部分口岸进境免税店。中银国际指出，此 举将增加我国口岸进境免税店数量，覆盖范围将进一步扩大，且有望进一步便利进境旅客免税购物消 费、进一步发挥免税店支持提振消费的作用。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国中免(01880)午后涨超5%，截至发稿，涨4.85%，报94港元，成交额2.07亿港 元。 消息面上，1月21日，财政部等五部门合印发《关于口岸进境免税店有关事宜的通知》，提出在武汉天 河国际机场等41个口岸各新设1家口岸进境免税店，同时调整部分口岸进境免税店。中银国际指出，此 举将增加我国口岸进境免税店数量，覆盖范围将进一步扩大，且有望进一步便利进境旅客免税购物消 费、进一步发挥免税店支持提振消费的作用。 此外，中国中免拟斥3.95亿美元收购DFS大中华业务，并引入LVMH作为新股东。东吴证券发布研报 称，本次收购是中免的首次跨境并购，中免将进一步强化在港澳地区免税市场的优势地位，整合DFS会 员、品牌和门店资源，拓展海外渠道，推进国际化战略。LVMH作为股东和战略合作方，有利于推进旗 下品牌与中免在各个渠道的进一步合作。 ...