每日经济新闻 11月4日，官方公告2026年放假安排！元旦假期将于1月1日（周四）至3日（周六）放假，春节假期 将于2月15日（农历腊月二十八、周日）至23日（农历正月初七、周一）放假调休，共9天。 元旦假期临近、春节假期延长，叠加冰雪旅游热度提升、免税免签政策陆续出台等，旅游板块近期 热度显著提升，旅游ETF（562510）今日早盘逆势涨超1%，海南机场、中国中免等领涨。 政策面来看，财政部、商务部、文化和旅游部、海关总署、税务总局近期印发《关于完善免税店政 策支持提振消费的通知》，这是继海南离岛免税新政之后，政策再度加码，免税提货方式优化有望打开 增长空间。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "outperform the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The recent introduction of tax-free policies is expected to significantly boost consumption and facilitate the return of overseas spending. The adjustments cover three main tax-free shopping systems: offshore, port, and in-city tax-free shopping, with a general trend towards relaxation of regulations [3][4]. - The policies include expanding the categories of tax-free goods, allowing for a wider selection for consumers, and supporting the sale of domestic products in tax-free stores, which is treated as exports for tax purposes [3][4]. - The adjustments aim to enhance the flexibility and diversity of tax-free operations, with specific measures for offshore, port, and in-city tax-free shopping to optimize consumer experience and increase foot traffic [4][8]. Summary by Sections Tax-Free Policy Adjustments - The new policies will expand the categories of tax-free goods, increasing from 45 to 47 categories for offshore shopping, and adding various products for port and in-city tax-free stores [3]. - Domestic products sold in tax-free stores will be treated as exports, allowing for VAT and consumption tax exemptions, with a minimum area requirement for domestic products in port and in-city stores [3][4]. Market Impact - The policies are expected to enhance the attractiveness of tax-free shopping channels, benefiting existing retailers and encouraging the establishment of new small and medium-sized tax-free stores [8]. - The focus on domestic products is anticipated to strengthen the market position of local brands, particularly in the rapidly expanding domestic trend market [8].

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group Co., Ltd. (China Duty Free) reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, while also announcing a cash dividend plan for shareholders [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, China Duty Free achieved revenue of 39.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.34% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.052 billion yuan, down 22.13% - In Q3 2025, revenue was 11.711 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.38%, with net profit of 450 million yuan, down 28.94% [1]. Dividend Announcement - China Duty Free proposed a cash dividend of 0.25 yuan per share (before tax) to all shareholders - With a total share capital of approximately 2.069 billion shares, the total cash dividend amounts to 517 million yuan (before tax), representing 16.95% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 [1]. Market and Policy Developments - The sales of duty-free goods in Hainan province showed a positive growth of 3.4% in September 2025, marking the first positive growth in 18 months - Approximately 50% of China Duty Free's revenue comes from Hainan, indicating that an increase in duty-free sales in the region is beneficial for the company [1]. - A new notification from the Ministry of Finance and other departments will enhance duty-free store policies starting November 1, 2025, which includes optimizing tax policies, expanding product categories, and improving operational efficiency [2]. Business Expansion - China Duty Free opened new city duty-free stores in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Chengdu, adopting a dual operating model of "duty-free + taxable" - The company is also developing new concept stores and expanding its presence in airports, with ongoing projects like the Sanya International Duty-Free City [3]. - Following the financial report, China Duty Free's stock rose by 2.42% in the A-share market and 4.73% in the Hong Kong market [3].

欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： T IN THE OF THE SECTION OF THE OFFICE OF THE OFFICE OF THE OFFICE OF THE OFFICE OF THE OFFICE OF THE OFFICE OF THE OFFICE OF THE OFFICE OF THE OFFICE OF THE OF THE OF THE O 市内免税店 是指经国务院批准, 按规定设立 在市内，向即将出境的国际旅客销 售免税商品的商店,如广州、深圳 等多个城市均有设立市内免税店。 1 =>=> 主要销售免税商品 食品、饮料、酒、纺织品及其 制成品、皮革服装及配饰、箱包及 鞋靴、表、钟及其配件附件、眼 镜、首饰及珠宝玉石、化妆品、洗 护用品、母婴用品等 19 项商品。 2=>=> 适用对象 持出入境有效证件即将于 60日 1 (含)内搭乘航空运输工具或国际 邮轮出境的旅客(包括但不限于中 国籍旅客)。 【 3=>=> 购物额度 不设购物限额,但应当符合海 关关于旅客携带行李物品进出境应 当以自用、合理数量为限的规定。 4 =>=> 涉税政策 市内免税店的进口商品免征关 税、进口环节增值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming closure of Hainan Free Trade Port presents both opportunities and challenges for China Duty Free Group (CDFG), as it faces declining performance despite favorable policies [1][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - CDFG's revenue and net profit declined by 10% and 20% year-on-year, respectively, in the first half of the year [1]. - In Hainan, CDFG's revenue fell to 288.92 billion yuan, a 27% decrease compared to the previous year, with the region's revenue share dropping from 70% in 2021 to 51% in 2024 [9]. - The average spending per customer in Hainan's duty-free market decreased from 7368 yuan in 2021 to 5800 yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant drop in consumer spending [12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The expansion of the "zero tariff" product list from 1900 to approximately 6600 items will enhance CDFG's cost advantages in procuring luxury and daily consumer goods [3]. - However, popular duty-free items like cosmetics and alcohol remain on the import tax list, which may limit CDFG's pricing advantages compared to regular taxed channels [3]. - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify as more cities establish city duty-free stores, with CDFG securing 75% of the new market in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen [14][15]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The price advantage of duty-free shopping is diminishing, with the price difference between duty-free and taxed channels narrowing from 25% to 5%-10% post-closure [5]. - Increased international travel and the rise of cross-border e-commerce platforms are diverting consumer spending away from traditional duty-free shopping [12]. - CDFG is actively conducting promotional activities to stimulate sales, which may further impact profitability [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - CDFG is at a critical transition from being driven by policy benefits to relying on internal capabilities for growth [16]. - The company's future success will depend on its ability to leverage the opportunities presented by the Hainan Free Trade Port closure while navigating the challenges posed by increased competition and changing consumer preferences [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [35]. Core Insights - The consumer services industry index rose by 4.92% from July 11 to July 24, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 1.45 percentage points during the same period [8][10]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the upcoming closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on the duty-free shopping sector, with specific policies expected to be announced in the second half of the year [22][35]. - The report notes that while the tourism and hotel sectors are recovering, the education sector continues to decline, indicating a mixed performance across sub-sectors [10][35]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The consumer services index showed a significant increase, outperforming the broader market [8]. - Sub-sector performance varied, with tourism and hotel sectors rebounding while the education sector faced declines [10]. - A total of 35 companies in the industry reported positive returns, with notable gains from companies like Tibet Tourism and China Duty Free [14]. Industry News - Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially close on December 18, 2025, with adjustments to the duty-free shopping policy anticipated [22]. - The visa application process for Chinese citizens traveling to India has resumed, expanding the visa-free travel range [23]. - In the first half of 2025, 333 million entries and exits were recorded, marking a 15.8% year-on-year increase [24]. Company Announcements - Companies such as Dalian Shengya and Beijing Renli reported significant changes in their financial forecasts, with some expecting substantial profit increases while others faced losses due to adverse weather conditions [28][30][31][34]. Weekly Outlook - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks that are expected to benefit from the upcoming summer season and policy changes, including China Duty Free and Jinjiang Hotels [35][36].