■田鹏 近日，笔者走访深圳市内免税店，国潮与科技气息扑面而来——国潮主题区里，景泰蓝等非遗手作陈列 其间，敦煌文创、永丰源瓷器尽显东方美学；电子黑科技体验廊人气十足，科大讯飞翻译笔、影石运动 相机等"深圳智造"整齐上架。从非遗手作到科技潮品，曾经被国际大牌占据的免税货架，如今已成国货 集中亮相的"展示窗"，这正是近期一系列免税政策落地见效的生动缩影。 10月17日，财政部等部门对外发布《关于调整海南离岛旅客免税购物政策的公告》，允许部分国内商品 在离岛免税店销售；10月30日，财政部等部门发布《关于完善免税店政策支持提振消费的通知》提出， 口岸出境免税店、市内免税店用于销售国产品的经营面积原则上不少于其经营面积的四分之一；11月26 日，工业和信息化部等六部门印发《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》提出，鼓 励国产名特优新产品、消费名品、非遗产品、国货"潮品"进入口岸出境免税店和市内免税店，优化离境 退税办理流程，推广"即买即退"措施。 渠道深度运营是关键。一方面，品牌应主动对接中免等头部免税运营商，通过联合开发、定制化产品等 方式深化合作，争取核心陈列资源与营销支持；另一方面，借助政策允许的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective adjustment in key indices, while the Hainan Free Trade Port concept saw significant gains, particularly benefiting the tourism sector as the closure date approaches [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 3rd, major A-share indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all faced adjustments [1] - The tourism ETF turned positive during trading, driven by the Hainan Free Trade Port concept [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The China Securities Tourism Theme Index, tracked by the tourism ETF, has approximately 26.87% exposure to the Hainan Free Trade Port concept and 29.76% to the duty-free shop concept, indicating potential benefits from the upcoming Hainan closure and duty-free policies [1] - The upcoming New Year holiday and the "longest" Spring Festival are expected to boost residents' travel intentions, positively impacting sectors such as airlines, airports, scenic spots, hotels, and duty-free shopping [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Wangfujing [1] Core Views - Q3 revenue decline has narrowed, and the company is expected to benefit from the tax-free policy by 2025 [8] - The company has actively laid out its tax-free business, which is anticipated to gain from the release of policy dividends [8] - The financial performance for Q3 shows a revenue of 2.35 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 40 million yuan, down 68.2% year-on-year [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for Wangfujing are as follows: - 2023A: 12,224 million yuan - 2024A: 11,372 million yuan - 2025E: 10,973 million yuan - 2026E: 11,557 million yuan - 2027E: 12,180 million yuan [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: - 2023A: 709.38 million yuan - 2024A: 268.58 million yuan - 2025E: 180.20 million yuan - 2026E: 428.22 million yuan - 2027E: 602.98 million yuan [1] - The report indicates a significant decrease in net profit margins, with a forecasted net profit margin of 1.8% for Q3, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [8] Market Data - The closing price of Wangfujing is 14.10 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 15.85 billion yuan [6] - The price-to-book ratio is reported at 0.81, indicating the stock is trading below its book value [6] Strategic Developments - The company has received approval for its tax-free operations and has launched several tax-free projects, including the Wangfujing International Tax-Free Port [8] - Recent policy changes have led to a 28.52% year-on-year increase in tax-free sales, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [8]

Company Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance and four other departments issued a notice on October 31, 2025, regarding the improvement of duty-free shop policies to boost consumption [2] - Shanghai Airport has recently initiated the bidding process for duty-free shop projects at Pudong and Hongqiao International Airports [2] Company Performance - The duty-free business is showing signs of improvement year-on-year, with the company reporting duty-free rental income of 314 million yuan in Q3 2025, an 18% increase compared to the previous year, marking the first positive growth since Q2 2024 [3] - The new duty-free policies from the Ministry of Finance are expected to provide additional growth opportunities for the company's duty-free business, allowing for a broader range of products to be sold at duty-free shops [3] - The new regulations permit the procurement of domestic goods for sale in duty-free shops, which will be treated as exports, exempting them from VAT and consumption tax [3] - The online sales channel may still face some pressure, but it could benefit the offline sales at port duty-free shops [3] Bidding Situation - The new bidding information indicates that certain terms may enhance the bargaining power of airports, allowing qualified domestic and reputable foreign companies to participate in the bidding process [3] - The bidding process divides different terminals at Pudong and Hongqiao airports into three segments, with restrictions on winning multiple segments [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 2.26 billion yuan and 2.73 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 36.0 times and 29.7 times for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a target price of 34.5 yuan, indicating a 6% upside potential from the current price [4]

Core Viewpoint - Jianyin International has raised the target price for China Duty Free Group (01880) by 50% from HKD 60 to HKD 90, reflecting stronger profit growth momentum supported by favorable policies and better growth prospects. The rating remains "Outperform" [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, China Duty Free's net profit decreased by 29% year-on-year to RMB 452 million, which was below both Jianyin International's and market expectations [1] - Sales decline has narrowed compared to the previous quarter, with gross margin stabilizing around 32%-33% [1] - The expectation is that operational performance will gradually improve, supported by product and merchandise optimization, with gross margins likely to remain stable [1] Group 2: Market and Policy Environment - China has implemented several new duty-free policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption, enhancing tourism in Hainan Province, and expanding shopping channels for domestic and foreign consumers [1] - Preliminary data from Hainan Province indicates a positive response to these policies, suggesting that China Duty Free Group, as a leading duty-free retailer in the region, will be one of the main beneficiaries of the new policies [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the Hainan sector and sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, indicating a positive medium-term outlook for new consumption growth, transformation recovery, overseas expansion, and policy benefits [3] Core Insights - Following the new gold tax policy, there has been a price increase in gold jewelry at retail terminals, highlighting the importance of brand strength and product quality [1][2] - The new tax policy differentiates between investment and non-investment uses of standard gold, affecting tax deductions and pricing strategies for retailers [2] - Major brands have raised their gold prices post-policy implementation, with increases ranging from 58 to 70 CNY per gram for leading brands [2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The retail index increased by 0.31% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.77 percentage points [9] - The retail sector's performance ranked 17th among all sectors during this period [9] 2. Company Dynamics - Small Commodity City has acquired land for a cultural and commercial complex for 3.2 billion CNY [16] - West China Tourism plans to issue up to 30.61 million shares to raise no more than 300 million CNY for working capital and debt repayment [16] 3. Industry Dynamics - Xiaohongshu has obtained a payment license, indicating a significant development in the digital payment landscape [22] - Starbucks has partnered with Boyu Capital to expand its retail operations in China, aiming to increase the number of stores to 20,000 [22] - JD's global sales during the Double 11 event saw a transaction volume increase of over 300% in cross-border shipping areas [23]

Group 1 - The official announcement for the 2026 holiday schedule includes a New Year's holiday from January 1 (Thursday) to January 3 (Saturday) and a Spring Festival holiday from February 15 (Sunday) to February 23 (Monday), totaling 9 days [1] - The tourism sector has seen a significant increase in activity due to the upcoming New Year and extended Spring Festival holidays, along with rising interest in winter tourism and the introduction of duty-free and visa-free policies [1] - The tourism ETF (562510) rose over 1% in early trading, with leading gains from companies like Hainan Airport and China Duty Free Group [1] Group 2 - Recent policy measures from the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Culture and Tourism, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration aim to enhance duty-free store policies to boost consumption [1] - This policy initiative follows the new duty-free regulations in Hainan, indicating a further commitment to stimulate growth in the tourism and retail sectors [1] - Optimizations in the duty-free pickup process are expected to open up new growth opportunities for the industry [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "outperform the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The recent introduction of tax-free policies is expected to significantly boost consumption and facilitate the return of overseas spending. The adjustments cover three main tax-free shopping systems: offshore, port, and in-city tax-free shopping, with a general trend towards relaxation of regulations [3][4]. - The policies include expanding the categories of tax-free goods, allowing for a wider selection for consumers, and supporting the sale of domestic products in tax-free stores, which is treated as exports for tax purposes [3][4]. - The adjustments aim to enhance the flexibility and diversity of tax-free operations, with specific measures for offshore, port, and in-city tax-free shopping to optimize consumer experience and increase foot traffic [4][8]. Summary by Sections Tax-Free Policy Adjustments - The new policies will expand the categories of tax-free goods, increasing from 45 to 47 categories for offshore shopping, and adding various products for port and in-city tax-free stores [3]. - Domestic products sold in tax-free stores will be treated as exports, allowing for VAT and consumption tax exemptions, with a minimum area requirement for domestic products in port and in-city stores [3][4]. Market Impact - The policies are expected to enhance the attractiveness of tax-free shopping channels, benefiting existing retailers and encouraging the establishment of new small and medium-sized tax-free stores [8]. - The focus on domestic products is anticipated to strengthen the market position of local brands, particularly in the rapidly expanding domestic trend market [8].

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group Co., Ltd. (China Duty Free) reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, while also announcing a cash dividend plan for shareholders [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, China Duty Free achieved revenue of 39.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.34% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.052 billion yuan, down 22.13% - In Q3 2025, revenue was 11.711 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.38%, with net profit of 450 million yuan, down 28.94% [1]. Dividend Announcement - China Duty Free proposed a cash dividend of 0.25 yuan per share (before tax) to all shareholders - With a total share capital of approximately 2.069 billion shares, the total cash dividend amounts to 517 million yuan (before tax), representing 16.95% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 [1]. Market and Policy Developments - The sales of duty-free goods in Hainan province showed a positive growth of 3.4% in September 2025, marking the first positive growth in 18 months - Approximately 50% of China Duty Free's revenue comes from Hainan, indicating that an increase in duty-free sales in the region is beneficial for the company [1]. - A new notification from the Ministry of Finance and other departments will enhance duty-free store policies starting November 1, 2025, which includes optimizing tax policies, expanding product categories, and improving operational efficiency [2]. Business Expansion - China Duty Free opened new city duty-free stores in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Chengdu, adopting a dual operating model of "duty-free + taxable" - The company is also developing new concept stores and expanding its presence in airports, with ongoing projects like the Sanya International Duty-Free City [3]. - Following the financial report, China Duty Free's stock rose by 2.42% in the A-share market and 4.73% in the Hong Kong market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the establishment and regulations of duty-free shops in urban areas and on Hainan Island, highlighting their product offerings, target customers, shopping limits, and tax policies. Urban Duty-Free Shops - Urban duty-free shops are approved by the State Council and are established to sell duty-free goods to international travelers about to depart from cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen [4] - The main products sold include food, beverages, alcohol, textiles, leather goods, luggage, watches, jewelry, cosmetics, and baby products, totaling 19 categories [5] - There is no shopping limit, but purchases must comply with customs regulations regarding personal use and reasonable quantities [7] - Imported goods in urban duty-free shops are exempt from customs duties, VAT, and consumption tax, while domestic goods are treated as exports and are eligible for tax refunds [8] Hainan Duty-Free Shops - Hainan duty-free shops are authorized to implement offshore duty-free policies and are currently only located in Hainan Province [9] - The main products sold include jewelry, crafts, watches, perfumes, cosmetics, and pens, covering 45 categories [10] - Eligible customers must be at least 16 years old, have purchased tickets for departure from Hainan, and possess valid identification [11]