Group 1 - Private-equity firms KKR and Warburg Pincus are among the bidders for TPG's Southeast Asia school business [1] - The potential valuation of the school business could reach up to $2 billion [1]

Capital Markets 2026 Outlook Summary Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Capital Markets industry, specifically analyzing the performance and outlook for various segments including Alternative Asset Managers, Traditional Asset Managers, Brokers, Trust Banks, and Exchanges [2][8]. Key Themes and Insights Theme 1: Capital Markets Recovery - A significant recovery in Capital Markets is anticipated, particularly in M&A and Equity Capital Markets, with global announced M&A volumes increasing over 40% year-on-year in 2025 [28]. - IPO activity has also seen a meaningful re-acceleration, although both M&A and IPO volumes remain below cyclical averages, indicating potential for further growth [28][39]. - Companies such as CG, BX, TPG, and KKR are highlighted for their substantial earnings exposure to Capital Markets-sensitive revenues, estimated at 30%-40% of total revenues [29]. Theme 2: Interest Rates and Asset Growth - The Federal Reserve's funds rate is projected to decline to 3% by the end of 2026, with a steepening yield curve expected [6]. - Wealth Brokers and Trust Banks are anticipated to experience cash revenue and net interest income (NII) growth in 2026, driven by increased balances and lower asset sensitivity compared to previous cycles [6][15]. - Specific firms like RJF and SCHW are expected to outperform consensus estimates, with RJF projected to grow by 2% in 2026 and 7% in 2027 [6]. Theme 3: Alternative Managers' Growth - Alternative Asset Managers are expected to see management fee growth accelerate to a 16% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in 2026-2027, up from 11% in 2023-2025 [6][11]. - Growth is anticipated to broaden beyond Credit, with Private Equity and Real Estate showing signs of recovery, alongside continued strength in Infrastructure and AI sectors [6]. Theme 4: Traditional Managers' Outlook - Traditional Asset Managers are expected to see long-term organic growth accelerate to over 1% in 2026, with firms like AMG and BLK leading in organic base fee growth [7]. - Growth drivers include increased flows into Fixed Income, Active ETFs, and leveraging distribution capabilities for Private Markets strategies [7]. Theme 5: Exchange Volume Challenges - Exchanges are facing tough year-on-year volume comparisons, particularly in 2026, following record volumes in 2025 [7]. - However, sectors such as Energy and Equities are expected to deliver meaningful volume growth, supported by retail investor participation and recovery in IPO markets [7][14]. Additional Insights - The report indicates a positive outlook for Trust Banks, with firms like BK and STT expected to benefit from accelerating deposit growth and favorable NII outlooks [15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of expense management and capital returns in driving EPS growth across various segments [15][12]. - Despite a challenging environment, select areas within the Capital Markets are expected to see structural growth, particularly in newer product areas like event contracts and prediction markets [16]. Conclusion - The Capital Markets industry is poised for a recovery driven by improving financial conditions, increased M&A and IPO activity, and growth in alternative and traditional asset management sectors. The outlook remains broadly constructive, with specific firms identified as key beneficiaries of these trends [2][8].

红龙虾的危机绝非一日之寒。2023财年，这家拥有687家门店的连锁品牌营收20亿美元，却巨亏7600万 美元（约合人民币5.5亿元），客流量出现两位数下滑。长期的战略失误叠加私募股权资本的 " 竭泽而 渔 " 式压榨，让企业外强中干：所有门店均承受着远超市场水平的租金压力；为削减成本导致的菜品质 量下滑，加上一场引发众怒的 " 无限量吃虾 " 营销翻车（编者注：该活动因供应短缺遭消费者抵制）， 更令品牌声誉跌至谷底。 消费趋势的剧变更是雪上加霜：年轻顾客转向Chipotle、Panera等主打"新鲜平价+极速服务 的新锐品牌 " （编者注：均为美国热门快餐连锁），外卖平台的崛起持续分流客源。而红龙虾那些仿海岸风情的宽 敞餐厅——本为美国家庭聚餐设计——如今常陷入门可罗雀的窘境。 "正式接任前，我暗访多家门店，发现装修陈旧、后厨缺员、设备老旧……团队士气更是跌到冰点。 " 阿达莫雷肯回忆道。这位尼日利亚移民后代（父母均为医生）经过了高中辩论赛与大学橄榄球队的历 练，让他深信 " 沟通是破解一切难题的利器 " 。 这位身高体健的红龙虾（Red Lobster）首席执行官，举手投足间既有大学橄榄球运动员的飒爽英姿， ...

Core Insights - Private equity firms are expected to resume their on-cycle recruiting practices soon, following a temporary halt due to Jamie Dimon's warnings to junior bankers [2][8] - The on-cycle recruiting process, which typically involves rapid interviews for positions starting two years later, has been delayed but is anticipated to kick off early in 2026 [3][4] - The shift in recruiting timelines has been influenced by the pandemic, with firms previously starting the process in January, now looking to resume earlier practices [7][8] Group 1: On-Cycle Recruiting Dynamics - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, initiated a moratorium on on-cycle recruiting for the 2027 class, leading many top private equity firms to pause their hiring efforts [2][4] - Firms like Apollo, General Atlantic, and TPG have committed to not recruiting for the 2027 class until at least 2026, with some banks threatening to fire employees who accept future-dated offers [2][4] - As the new year approaches, there are indications that the on-cycle recruiting process will begin shortly after January 1, 2026, as firms prepare to engage with a new class of investment banking analysts [3][4][8] Group 2: Industry Perspectives - Recruiters and industry experts express optimism about the upcoming recruiting cycle, noting that many investment funds are eager to interview analysts with relevant training and deal experience [4][5] - The competitive nature of becoming a private equity analyst typically starts with a demanding investment banking career, where on-cycle recruiting requires immediate availability for interviews [6] - Historical data indicates that the recruiting timeline has shifted earlier since the pandemic, with firms now looking to resume practices that were common nearly a decade ago [7]

22日晚，谷歌母公司Alphabet官宣将以47.5亿美元（约合人民币333.85亿元）的现金收购美国数据中心和能源基础设施公司Intersect，并承担相关债务。本 次收购计划于2026年上半年完成。 Intersect创立于2016年，创始人谢尔顿·金伯（Sheldon Kimber）担任其首席执行官。该公司由美国私募股权公司TPG支持，核心业务是为数据中心园区开 发包含可再生能源在内的基础设施。金伯称，他们的目标是通过创新的能源解决方案和现代化基础设施。 金伯硕士毕业于加州大学伯克利分校商学院，曾在该学校担任讲师长达9年，他联合创办了伯克利能源与资源协作组织并担任其董事会成员，还曾担任阿 特斯阳光电力集团旗下能源子公司Recurrent Energy的首席运营官。 ▲Intersect创始人兼首席执行官谢尔顿·金伯（Sheldon Kimber）（图源：领英） 全球知名能源咨询机构伍德麦肯兹的分析师本·赫兹·沙格尔（Ben Hertz-Shargel）称，Intersect目前正在运营约7.5吉瓦的太阳能及储能项目，还有8吉瓦的 容量处于开发管道中，其中大部分位于数据中心热点区域的德克萨斯州。根据Int ...

这项收购旨在为Alphabet旗下的谷歌提供更多电力，以满足其数据中心的需求。由于人工智能等因素的 影响，美国老旧的电网难以满足数十年来首次出现的电力需求激增。此前报道称，谷歌去年通过与 Intersect合作，在数据中心园区附近建设大型发电厂，从而获得了这家能源供应商的少数股权。 Alphabet首席执行官Sundar Pichai在一份声明中表示："Intersect将帮助我们扩大产能，更灵活地建设新 的发电设施，与新的数据中心负荷同步增长，并重新构想能源解决方案，以推动美国的创新和领导地 位。" 人工智能竞赛推动了数据中心和电力行业的并购活动。例如，软银一直在研究潜在的收购目标，其中包 括数据中心运营商Switch Inc.。Sandbrook Capital周一宣布，随着电力需求的增长，该公司将收购公用 事业公司United Utility Services。 能源咨询公司 Wood Mackenzie Ltd. 的 Ben Hertz-Shargel 表示，Intersect 的这笔交易标志着大型科技公 司首次收购一家主要的可再生能源开发商，并且"再次确认了谷歌用清洁能源为其数据中心供电的意 图"。 ...

近日，瑞银发布了对美国券商与资产管理公司行业的研究报告，指出行业整体呈现"适度乐观"态势，投 资者情绪较去年更为理性，预计2026年市场将保持温和上涨。报告覆盖多家知名机构，并对部分公司给 出"买入"评级，包括TPG(TPG.US)、阿波罗全球管理(APO.US)和嘉信理财(SCHW.US)等。 瑞银在报告中表示，买入评级企业普遍具备增长确定性强、估值合理或存在明确催化剂等优势。 Ares尽管基本面强劲，有望超额完成7500亿美元有机资产管理规模、16%-20%的FRE复合增长等目标， 但当前25.9倍的2026年预期市盈率较同行溢价132%，进一步上涨需依赖业绩超预期或估值溢价扩大。 LPL的中性评级则源于短期增长压力，公司当前专注于留住Commonwealth顾问团队，有机NNA增长复 苏节奏或慢于市场预期，预计未来几个季度有机增长率维持在7%以下，且2026年核心管理费用可能高 于行业共识，短期业绩承压。 行业趋势与投资机会展望 另外，瑞银在报告中强调了2026年行业将呈现的多重结构性机会。私人资产在401(k)计划中的配置有望 逐步提升，目标日期基金(TDFs)成为主要渠道，预计2028年私人资产在T ...

Core Viewpoint - TPG is exploring a dual exit strategy for its investment in APM Monaco, either through a sale or an IPO in the Hong Kong market, with a target valuation of at least $2 billion [1][3]. Group 1: Exit Strategy - TPG has engaged an international investment bank to design a "dual-track" exit plan for APM Monaco, aiming for a valuation of no less than $2 billion [1][3]. - The exit options include a direct sale of all shares or an IPO, utilizing a combination of "existing shares sale + new shares issuance" [1][3]. - The anticipated timeline for the exit process includes opening a data room for potential buyers by December 2025 and issuing the first round of bidding invitations in January 2026 [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - APM Monaco is projected to achieve a 23% growth in same-store sales globally in 2024, with the Chinese market contributing 62% of this growth [3]. - The management forecasts a net profit of between $160 million and $190 million for 2025 [3]. - The company's revenue reached $910 million and EBITDA was $210 million in 2024, showing significant growth compared to 2018 figures [12]. Group 3: Company Background - APM Monaco was founded in 1982 and has evolved from a high-end jewelry maker to a brand focusing on affordable luxury items priced between €50 and €300 [6][12]. - The brand has expanded significantly in China, with 180 out of 260 global stores located in the country by 2018 [6][12]. - TPG, along with China Synergy and Trail Capital, acquired a 30% stake in APM Monaco in 2019, becoming the controlling shareholder [9][10]. Group 4: Operational Improvements - TPG has implemented several operational changes, including relocating 40% of production to Guangdong, which improved gross margins by 6 percentage points [12]. - The company launched a digital membership program in 2021, achieving a 42% repurchase rate [12]. - APM Monaco has adapted its store formats to reduce capital expenditure and improve investment recovery time, resulting in a significant increase in store numbers and efficiency [12].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the financial services industry, particularly for regional banks and consumer credit companies, with expectations of loan growth and improved profitability in 2026 [1][4][5]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to outperform expectations, with stable credit quality for consumers and businesses, and a continued positive trend in commercial loan growth [1][2]. - Capital markets are optimistic about a resurgence in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and equity financing, especially in the financial sponsorship sector [1][3][7]. - Consumer credit companies are showing strong performance, with positive spending trends and expectations for continued loan growth into 2026 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector - Regional banks are projected to have a strong performance in 2026, with significant increases in corporate and industrial loan pipelines, some banks expecting loan growth of 9%-11% [1][4]. - Many banks are progressing towards mid-term net interest margin targets through asset repricing and funding adjustments, enhancing profitability [4]. - Credit indicators are stable or improving, with several banks announcing new capital repurchase plans, indicating a favorable year for capital returns in 2026 [4]. Consumer Credit Companies - Companies like American Express and Synchrony are reporting better-than-expected consumer spending updates, with a positive outlook for loan growth in 2026 [5]. - Overall loss rates remain above average, but delinquency and charge-off rates have significantly decreased year-over-year [6]. Capital Markets - There is a strong and improving M&A environment, with strategic and large transactions remaining robust, driven by a favorable regulatory environment and strong corporate balance sheets [3][7]. - The IPO market is showing positive trends, with expectations for continued improvement as market conditions stabilize [8]. Asset Management - The asset management industry is expected to see a divergence in management fee income growth, with some firms like Ares and TPG projected to grow faster than others [12]. - Fixed income market sentiment is optimistic, benefiting from lower interest rates and tight credit spreads [12]. Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is generally in good shape but facing a broad slowdown, with investment returns expected to remain in the mid-to-high single digits [13]. - Pricing confidence has decreased, particularly in property insurance, while accident insurance categories are expected to maintain current price increases [13][14]. Innovations in Financial Services - The Genius Act for stablecoin legislation is expected to enhance market structure and efficiency in the cryptocurrency space, with optimism around tokenization of physical assets [15]. - AI adoption across major banks is anticipated to significantly improve productivity and operational efficiency over the next several years [15].

转自：上海市市场监管局网站 2025年12月1日-12月7日 无条件批准经营者集中案件列表 | 序 号 | 案件名称 | 参与集中的经营者 | 审结时间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 宁波舜宇奥来技术有限公司收购歌尔光学科技有限公司股权案 | 宁波舜宇奥来技术有限公司，歌尔股份有限公司 | 2025年12月2 | | | | | 日 | | 2 | 江西省天然气集团有限公司与中海油湖北新能源有限公司新设合营企业案 | 江西省天然气集团有限公司，中海油湖北新能源有限公司 | 2025年12月4 | | | | | 日 | | 3 | TPG Inc.收购Apex Tool Ultimate Holdings, LLC股权案 | TPG Inc，Apex Tool Ultimate Holdings, LLC | 2025年12月4 | | | | | 日 | | 4 | 厦门隐金企业管理有限公司与紫金矿业股权投资管理（厦门）有限公司新 | 厦门隐金企业管理有限公司，紫金矿业股权投资管理（厦 | 2025年12月5 | | | 设合营企业案 | 门）有限公司 | 日 | ...