证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 服务消费再贷款落地 2025 年 05 月 12 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 周观点：（1）央行落实此前刺激政策，创设 5000 亿服务消费和养老再 贷款，激励引导金融机构加大对住宿餐饮、文体娱乐、教育等服务消费 重点领域和养老产业的金融支持。4 月 CPI 相对平稳，PPI 下行压力加 大，但 4 月房企拿地情况有所好转，整体而言，地产链复苏的方向不变。 在以旧换新补贴和服务消费刺激政策的推动下，我们期待 25 年 Q3 家 装产业链也会迎来明显加速。地产链出清已近尾声，供给格局大幅改善， 25 年需求平稳且企业增长预期较低，板块具备较高的胜率。首选低估值 的消费龙头和扩张型公司，例如北新建材、三棵树、兔宝宝、奥普科技、 欧普照明、伟星新材、欧派家居、箭牌家居等。其次，如果外部需求快 速回落，中西部基建很有可能成为救急的方向，关注华新水泥、四川路 桥、海螺水泥、中国交建、坚朗五金、东方雨虹等。最后，在 25 年流 动性充裕的背景下，科技属性强的公司仍有较高关注度，例如上海港湾、 鸿路钢构、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction and decoration industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction and decoration sector is expected to benefit from ongoing incremental policies, with a focus on the actual implementation of construction projects [1] - The overseas contracting business in China is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 3.1% year-on-year in 2024, with new contract amounts increasing by 1.1%, reaching a historical high [2][11] - The report highlights opportunities in specialized manufacturing engineering sectors, prefabricated buildings, energy conservation, and carbon reduction, suggesting that companies with relevant transformation strategies may benefit [2][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Recent financial policies announced by the State Council aim to stabilize market expectations, including interest rate cuts and measures to support key sectors like technology innovation and real estate [5][13] - The construction PMI showed a decline in April, indicating weak project expectations, while infrastructure investment growth was reported at 5.8% year-on-year in the first quarter [10][11] Overseas Expansion - The report emphasizes the potential for increased cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly with Europe and ASEAN countries, following recent diplomatic visits by President Xi Jinping [2][11] - Companies such as China National Materials International and Shanghai Port Construction are recommended for their potential in the international engineering sector [2][11] Demand Structure - There are promising developments in demand structure, particularly in segments related to prefabricated buildings and cleanroom construction for semiconductors, which are expected to maintain a favorable market outlook [2][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction and decoration industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction and decoration sector is expected to benefit from ongoing incremental policies, with a focus on the actual implementation of construction projects [1] - The overseas contracting business in China is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 3.1% year-on-year in 2024, with new contract amounts increasing by 1.1%, reaching a historical high [2][11] - The report highlights the positive demand structure and investment opportunities arising from new business developments in specialized manufacturing, prefabricated buildings, energy conservation, and carbon reduction [2][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Recent financial policies announced by the State Council aim to stabilize market expectations, including interest rate cuts and measures to support key sectors like technology innovation and real estate [13] - The construction PMI showed a decline in April, indicating weak project expectations, while infrastructure investment maintained a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8% in the first quarter [10][13] Overseas Expansion - The report emphasizes the potential for increased cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly with Europe and ASEAN countries, following recent diplomatic visits by President Xi Jinping [2][11] - Companies such as China National Materials International and Shanghai Port Construction are recommended for their potential benefits from overseas engineering demand [2][11] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with transformation layouts in high-demand sectors, such as prefabricated buildings and semiconductor clean rooms, with specific recommendations for Honglu Steel Structure and Asia Xiang Integration [2][11] - Infrastructure leaders and local state-owned enterprises are highlighted as having opportunities for valuation recovery due to their stable performance [10][11]

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent meetings have played a crucial role in stabilizing the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index continuing to progress steadily [1] - There are positive developments regarding ceasefire announcements between India and Pakistan, as well as potential progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, which may benefit market sentiment [1] - The key focus is on the US-China talks, which lasted for 8 hours on May 10, indicating a shift towards resolving differences, with constructive progress expected [1] Group 2: Company Performance - For 2024, GDS Holdings Limited (万国数据-SW) is projected to achieve revenue of 10.322 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, and an adjusted EBITDA of 4.876 billion yuan, up 3% [3] - The company’s domestic operational area reached 613,583 square meters by the end of Q4 2024, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth, with a cabinet utilization rate of 73.8% [3] - GDS's international business, DayOne, has signed contracts totaling 467 MW, with an operational scale of 121 MW, generating revenue of 1.73 million USD and adjusted EBITDA of 0.45 million USD in 2024 [4] Group 3: Industry Insights - Chinese construction companies are increasingly competitive in the international market, with several state-owned enterprises ranking among the top 10 in the ENR "Global Top 250 International Contractors" for 2024 [5] - The demand for construction projects along the Belt and Road Initiative is strong, with significant projects like the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway and China-Europe Railway Express enhancing infrastructure in participating countries [6] - The international engineering business is experiencing better conditions than the domestic market, with a notable increase in new contracts signed overseas by major Chinese construction firms [7]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The construction sector has outperformed the market recently, with a 2.23% increase compared to the 2.09% rise in the CSI 300 index, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1] - Significant price increases in cellulose-related products have been observed, highlighting the potential for domestic substitution to drive performance and valuation catalysts, with a strong recommendation for Sanwei Chemical [1][24] - The issuance of special bonds remains high, suggesting a focus on the conversion rhythm of physical construction work in the future [4] Summary by Sections 1. Progress of Domestic Substitution for Cellulose Products - Acetic cellulose (CA) is primarily used in tobacco filters, with China consuming approximately 300,000 tons annually, and Sichuan Pushi, holding a 67% stake by Yibin Paper, has a leading position in the production of diacetate and triacetate [2] - The prices of CAB (cellulose acetate butyrate) and CAP (cellulose acetate propionate) have significantly increased, with imported CAB prices ranging from 188,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton, while domestic prices are between 90,000 and 115,000 yuan/ton, a notable rise from 58,000 yuan/ton in March 2025 [2][24] - Domestic production capabilities for CAB and CAP have been historically monopolized by foreign companies, but local firms like Wuxi Chemical Research Institute and Fujian Hongyan Chemical are developing their production capabilities [3] 2. High-Level Special Bond Issuance and Focus on Infrastructure Work - In April 2025, new local special bonds totaled 230.144 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 1.1904 trillion yuan from January to April, marking a year-on-year increase of 467.9 billion yuan [4][29] - The cement shipment rate was reported at 48.07%, with a slight decrease, while the asphalt plant operating rate was 28.8%, indicating a gradual recovery in construction activity [4][29] 3. Market Review - The construction index rose by 2.23% during the week of May 5-9, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with notable gains in construction decoration and design sectors [5][36] - Key stocks that performed well included Shanshui Bide (+28.1%), ST Saiwei (+21.7%), and ST Chuangxing (+21.5%) [5][36] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on traditional construction blue-chip stocks, particularly in infrastructure sectors like water conservancy, railways, and aviation, with a recommendation for companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge, Zhejiang Jiaoke, and Anhui Construction [41] - It also highlights opportunities in cyclical engineering stocks, particularly in coal chemical projects, recommending companies like Sanwei Chemical and China Chemical for their strong technical capabilities [42]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][33]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in infrastructure investment for 2025, emphasizing the cyclical investment value in high elasticity sectors. Key recommendations include focusing on companies in steel structures, coal chemical, urban renewal, and low-altitude economy [3][17]. - Recent financial policies include a 10 basis point reduction in LPR, which is expected to facilitate project advancement and support private enterprises in participating in major national projects [3][17]. Industry Performance - The construction industry index increased by 1.99%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 1.92% [4][6]. - The best-performing sub-industries for the week were decorative curtain walls (+7.25%), ecological landscaping (+5.94%), and infrastructure private enterprises (+4.84%) [3][6]. Key Company Developments - Tianyu Biological reported a sales revenue of 59.33 million yuan in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.66% [19]. - Mengcao Ecological won a major project worth 252 million yuan, accounting for 11.74% of its 2024 revenue [20]. - Jiaojian Co. secured a significant project totaling 704 million yuan, representing 16.87% of its 2024 revenue [21]. Market Trends - The report notes that the number of major engineering projects exceeding 1 billion yuan has increased by 41.8% year-on-year, indicating a robust project pipeline [15]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is accelerating mechanisms for private enterprises to participate in significant national projects, with an estimated investment scale of approximately 3 trillion yuan in key areas such as transportation and energy [17].

Core Insights - Sanya is expected to launch 1,453 affordable housing units in 2025, with plans to start construction on an additional 762 units [1][2] Group 1: Housing Supply - The existing unsold affordable housing units in Sanya total over 800 [1] - The 1,453 units to be launched in 2025 include projects in various locations with average selling prices ranging from 12,800 to 13,400 CNY per square meter [1] - The planned construction of 762 units will also feature projects with average selling prices of 12,800 to 16,800 CNY per square meter [1] Group 2: Demand and Application Process - The new housing supply is expected to meet the housing demand in Sanya from the end of 2025 to the end of 2026, with future construction to follow a "demand-based" principle [2] - The application process for affordable housing has been streamlined to an online system, requiring specific documentation from applicants [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing environmental risks faced by listed companies in China, with specific penalties imposed on several firms for violations related to environmental regulations [6][7][9]. Group 1: Environmental Violations and Penalties - Tangrenshen's subsidiary was fined 414,000 yuan for failing to implement environmental protection measures as per the environmental impact assessment requirements [9]. - China Communications Construction Company was penalized approximately 557,500 yuan for unauthorized occupation of forest land [11]. - Huajian Group's subsidiary was fined 180,000 yuan for illegally occupying water bodies in the Yangtze River basin [9][11]. Group 2: Impact on Shareholders - The nine listed companies involved in environmental violations have a total of 586,400 shareholders, indicating potential investment risks for these stakeholders [8]. - The environmental risk exposure of these companies may affect their market reputation and financial performance, thereby impacting shareholder value [7]. Group 3: Regulatory Context - The article emphasizes the importance of environmental information transparency in the capital market, driven by increasing investor focus on sustainable development [13]. - The regulatory framework has evolved to enhance public access to environmental information, supporting the principle of "public disclosure as the norm" [13].

Group 1 - The first Guangzhou International Smart Construction and Industrialized Building Industry Expo opened on May 8, attracting over 1,300 overseas merchants from 90 countries and more than 500 domestic enterprises [1][2] - The expo focuses on the entire industry chain of "smart construction + industrialized building," with a total signing amount exceeding 82 billion yuan for several significant overseas projects [1] - The theme of the event is "Smart Construction Industry Navigation," aiming to create a comprehensive international exchange platform to promote the upgrade from "Chinese construction" to "Chinese intelligence" and support the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [1] Group 2 - The expo covers five major industry tracks: digital design, smart production, intelligent equipment, prefabricated decoration, and smart furniture, with an exhibition area exceeding 20,000 square meters [2] - Various enterprises showcased the latest industry achievements around themes such as smart construction technology and equipment, industrialized building and prefabricated technology, and green building materials [2] Group 3 - A demonstration area for "robotic construction" was set up at the expo, showcasing the application of smart construction technology in various construction processes [3] - The "Cloud Construction Factory" developed by China State Construction Fourth Engineering Division attracted significant attention, featuring automated and streamlined construction processes [3] - Modular construction (MiC) was highlighted, allowing for industrialized prefabrication and on-site assembly, exemplified by the first super high-rise concrete modular building in Hong Kong [3]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of China's nine major state-owned construction enterprises in the first quarter of 2025 shows a mixed result, with total revenue declining by 4.23% year-on-year to 1.654563 trillion yuan and net profit down by 9.90% to 39.507 billion yuan, indicating a phase of adjustment in the industry [1][2][3]. Revenue and Profit Summary - The nine construction state-owned enterprises reported a total revenue of 1,654.563 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of 39.507 billion yuan, down 9.90% year-on-year [1][3]. - Among these enterprises, China Construction (中国建筑) achieved the highest revenue of 555.342 billion yuan, while China Chemical (中国化学) led in net profit growth with an increase of 18.77% [1][6][7]. Performance Disparity - Three companies, namely China Construction, China Energy Construction (中国能建), and China Chemical, managed to achieve net profit growth, while the remaining six companies experienced declines [2][3]. - The decline in profits for six enterprises is attributed to intensified market competition, rising costs, project delays, and changes in policies and taxation [2][4]. Factors Influencing Performance - Key factors affecting the performance include rising project costs due to fluctuating raw material prices, project delays caused by planning adjustments and extreme weather, and increased competition leading to price pressures [4][5]. - China Chemical's strong performance is attributed to improved internal management, enhanced production efficiency, and successful market expansion, particularly in high-value sectors like new materials and renewable energy [6][7]. Future Outlook - The construction industry is expected to face continued pressure in 2024 and early 2025, but there are indications that infrastructure investment may increase as a means to stimulate economic growth [8][9]. - The government is planning to implement new policies to boost investment in infrastructure, which could lead to improved performance for construction enterprises in the future [8][9].