Core Viewpoint - CICC initiates coverage on Poly Real Estate (00119) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 2.15, indicating a 28% upside potential based on 0.24x P/B for 2025/2026 [1][2] Investment Recommendations - Expected EPS for the company in 2025 and 2026 is projected at HKD 0.04 each, with current trading at 0.17x P/B and a 63% discount to NAV. The target price of HKD 2.15 per share corresponds to a 28% upside and a 52% NAV discount [2] - Potential catalysts include sales and land acquisition performance exceeding market expectations in Q4 2025 [2] Valuation Insights - The company has faced long-term pressure on its stock price due to "peer competition" and governance uncertainties, but these issues are being resolved, leading to improved operational and asset quality during the industry downturn. The reasonable valuation range is estimated at 0.35-0.45x P/B based on NAV models and comparable companies [3] Market Positioning - The company possesses unique attributes such as being a Deep Hong Kong Stock Connect target, a state-owned enterprise, and a small-to-mid-cap stock. Low trading activity has constrained value release, but the relatively loose liquidity in the Hong Kong market since the beginning of the year has created a favorable environment for value discovery [4] Operational Performance - From 2020 to 2024, national and top 100 new home sales declined by 44% and 68%, respectively, while the company maintained stable sales between RMB 50-60 billion, improving its industry ranking by 50 positions to 17th. The company is highly likely to achieve its annual sales target of RMB 50 billion, with a potential for slight year-on-year growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - CICC initiates coverage on Poly Real Estate (00119) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 2.15, indicating a 28% upside potential based on 2025/2026 P/B ratios of 0.24 [1][2] Investment Recommendations - Expected EPS for the company in 2025 and 2026 is projected at CNY 0.04 each year, with current trading at 0.17 times P/B and a 63% discount to NAV. The target price reflects a 28% upside and a 52% NAV discount [2] Valuation Insights - The company has faced long-term pressure on its stock price due to "peer competition" and governance uncertainties. However, with these issues resolved, the company's operational and asset quality have improved during the industry downturn. The reasonable valuation range is estimated at 0.35-0.45 times P/B based on NAV models and comparable companies [3] Market Positioning - The company possesses unique attributes such as being a Deep Hong Kong Stock Connect target, a state-owned enterprise, and a small to mid-cap stock. The low trading activity has been a constraint on value realization, but the relatively loose liquidity in the Hong Kong market since the beginning of the year has created a favorable environment for value discovery [4] Operational Performance - From 2020 to 2024, national and top 100 new home sales declined by 44% and 68%, respectively, while the company's total sales remained stable at CNY 50-60 billion, improving its industry ranking by 50 positions to 17th. The company is highly likely to achieve its annual sales target of CNY 50 billion, with potential for slight year-on-year growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Tianhong Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159281) on September 2, 2025, aims to attract investors seeking high dividend yields as the A-share market approaches the 3900-point mark [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Insurance capital has significantly increased its investment in high-dividend assets, with a total growth of 640 billion yuan in equity assets during the first half of the year [1]. - Major insurance companies, including China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and China Ping An, have indicated plans to enhance their allocation towards quality high-dividend assets in their semi-annual reports [1]. Group 2: ETF Characteristics - The Tianhong ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central SOE Dividend Index, focusing on high-dividend stocks from central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) [1]. - The ETF selects companies that have consistently paid dividends for three consecutive years, ensuring a dividend payout ratio greater than 0 and less than 1 over the past year, thus avoiding "one-off dividends" [1]. - The index is weighted by dividend yield rather than market capitalization, preventing the pitfalls of high buying and low selling [1]. Group 3: Top Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include China COSCO Shipping, Orient Overseas International, China National Offshore Oil, and China Shenhua Energy, among others [1]. - The profitability of central SOEs supports the high dividend yields, allowing investors to benefit from both capital appreciation and stable dividend income under new market regulations [1]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - As of July 4, 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Central SOE Dividend Index had a dividend yield of 7.73% and a year-to-date increase of 17.17%, significantly outperforming the CSI Central SOE Dividend Index, which had a dividend yield of 4.89% and a year-to-date increase of 5.07% [2]. - Over the past five years, the index has achieved an annualized total return of 14.27% with an annualized volatility of 22.02%, indicating a balance of returns and risk management [2].

Core Viewpoint - The current investment sentiment is rising, and there is a discussion on whether the market may become overheated in the future, with a focus on the evolution of the slow bull market [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Financial sectors, including large financial institutions, are considered undervalued and attractive for investment [1] - H-shares are highlighted as a significant focus for global investors, reflecting the "East rises, West falls" narrative, indicating a shift in capital towards Asia [2] - Core assets such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Hang Seng Technology, and Hang Seng National Enterprises are identified as mainstream core assets that can attract long-term domestic and international capital [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - There is an increasing probability of capital returning from the U.S., where high asset prices and tax implications are driving investors to consider returning to the Chinese market [2] - The Hong Kong capital market has shown significant growth, rising from 14,597 points to over 25,000 points, demonstrating initial success in attracting global capital [2] - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing robust activity, indicating a diverse range of investment opportunities that include both traditional and technology-driven assets [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant rally in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and coal-related stocks, driven by strong performance in the coal futures market and expectations of price increases in coke [1][2] - Major SOEs such as China Communications Construction and China Railway Construction saw substantial gains, indicating a positive market sentiment towards these companies [1] - The coal sector is identified as a high-dividend area, with leading companies expected to attract long-term investment due to stable cash flows and dividend capabilities [2] Group 2 - The report mentions that the Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend 50 ETF (560700) has a market size of 682 million yuan, leading its category, and has shown a price increase of over 1% [1][3] - The High Dividend ETF (159207) has increased by over 15% since its launch in April, indicating strong investor interest in high-yield assets [1][3] - The report also notes that the Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation ETF (515600) saw a price increase of over 2%, reflecting positive market dynamics for innovative SOEs [1][4] Group 3 - The coal industry is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at stabilizing growth, with large infrastructure projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project set to support physical work volume [2] - The report emphasizes that the coal sector's profitability is stabilizing, and the risks associated with the industry have been sufficiently mitigated, enhancing its investment appeal [2] - The introduction of long-term assessments for insurance funds is expected to further boost the allocation preference for high-dividend assets, particularly in the coal sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The active equity funds have regained market attention as the market conditions improve, with a notable focus on technology innovation-related themes [1][2][6] Group 1: Fund Issuance and Themes - As of March 20, a total of 17 new active equity funds have been launched, primarily focusing on technology innovation themes [1][2] - Among the 10 funds currently in the initial issuance phase, many are centered on technology sectors, including funds like Taiping Technology Pioneer Mixed and Deutsche Bank Emerging Industry Mixed [2] - Some funds are targeting specific themes, such as central enterprises and dividends, with examples like Rongtong Central Enterprise Selected Mixed focusing on high-dividend, stable cash flow companies [2][3] Group 2: Fund Issuance Strategies - Many funds are adopting a "initiated" issuance strategy due to concerns over unsuccessful fundraising, with 5 out of the 10 currently issuing funds being initiated funds [3][4] - Initiated funds require a minimum of 10 million yuan to establish and have shorter issuance periods, allowing for gradual scale growth post-establishment [4] Group 3: Fund Performance and Market Sentiment - Despite the increase in active equity fund issuance, there remains a cautious sentiment among fund companies due to recent failures in fundraising, with 3 funds reported to have failed to meet registration conditions this year [4][5] - The performance of active equity funds has shown promise, with the highest return exceeding 80% year-to-date, indicating potential for sustained performance as market conditions evolve [7]