证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 红利内部轮动模型：迈向周期与制造 ——多行业联合红利资产 1 月报 策略研究 策略月报 2026 年 02 月 01 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】杠杆&ETF 资金分化趋势逆转—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-12-01 《【华创策略】自媒体 A 股搜索热度重回高位— —流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-25 《【华创策略】60 日均线的机遇挑战——策略周 聚焦》 2025-11-23 《【华创策略】股票型 ETF 为当前流入主力—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-1 ...

市场对中长期金价走势仍存支撑预期。 1月最后一个交易日，金价的剧烈波动让不少投资者陷入困惑：是在高位止损，还是趁跌加仓？ 在连续刷新历史高点后，贵金属市场突然踩下"急刹车"。1月30日，国际金价高位大幅回落，现货黄金 盘中一度跌破4700美元/盎司，白银价格同步大幅下挫，单日波动幅度刷新多项历史纪录。剧烈调整之 下，市场情绪迅速分化：一边是对高波动的警惕升温，另一边则是逢低配置需求集中释放。 金价剧烈波动下，工商银行、建设银行、中国银行、农业银行等多家机构接连发布风险提示，并同步调 整贵金属业务规则。与此同时，记者注意到，多家银行的实物金条、投资金却依然供不应求，部分产品 甚至出现"全线售罄"。 银行先"踩刹车" 价格剧烈波动之下，多家国内银行纷纷发布公告，提醒投资者审慎操作、理性布局。 2月1日，中国工商银行发布公告，提示近期国内外贵金属价格波动显著加大，市场不确定性上升，建议 投资者理性看待行情变化，从中长期视角出发，避免追涨杀跌，合理控制仓位，并坚持分批、分散配置 的原则。 事实上，类似的风险提示并非首次出现。早在1月下旬，工行已连续发布多次贵金属风险提示，并同步 对如意金积存等业务的办理规则进行调整： ...

Core Insights - The public fund of funds (FOF) has reached a historical high, with a total scale exceeding 240 billion yuan, marking a 26% increase compared to the previous quarter [2][3] - The demand for low-volatility, multi-asset products has surged due to low interest rates and asset rotation, leading to a significant increase in the issuance of new FOF products [1][4] Group 1: Market Overview - As of the end of 2025, there are 545 public FOFs in the market, reflecting an 8.3% quarter-on-quarter increase [2] - The total scale of public FOFs has reached 244 billion yuan, which is a record high [2] - The proportion of mixed bond FOFs has expanded significantly, now accounting for 61% of the total public FOF scale [2] Group 2: Drivers of Growth - The low interest rate environment has created a strong demand for stable value-added products, particularly among low-risk preference investors [2][3] - The diversification benefits of FOFs have become more pronounced, incorporating low-correlation assets such as gold, QDII, REITs, and commodities into their portfolios [2][3] - The transformation of bank wealth management has provided crucial support for FOFs, allowing for better alignment with varying risk preferences and investment needs [2][3] Group 3: Product Trends - Over 20 new FOF products are currently being issued or awaiting issuance, with 15 additional products having their application materials accepted [4] - Low-volatility FOFs are particularly appealing to investors seeking stable returns, aligning with the trend of "deposit migration" [4] - The focus on low-volatility FOFs is driven by their ability to leverage multi-asset and multi-strategy advantages, aiming for long-term stable growth while managing overall risk [4]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile in February, with a potential for stronger performance post-Spring Festival due to policy catalysts and the upcoming Two Sessions [2][3][26] - The focus will shift towards cyclical price increases and AI applications, particularly in sectors like oil and petrochemicals, construction materials, and steel [2][3][26] Industry and Sector Recommendations - Recommended sectors include cyclical and technology areas, with a focus on high-growth industries such as electronics (semiconductors), media (advertising, gaming, film), machinery (automation, engineering), power equipment (batteries, grid equipment, photovoltaic), basic chemicals, and social services [4][6][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors benefiting from the 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly in construction and infrastructure projects [3][4][21] Liquidity and Capital Supply - February is anticipated to see continued net inflows of incremental capital, with foreign capital expected to flow in before the Spring Festival and financing likely to rebound afterward [5][19] - Despite a positive trend in resident capital inflows, significant reductions in ETF holdings have offset these inflows, leading to a challenging trading environment [5][19] Economic and Earnings Trends - The report highlights a recovery in industrial profits, with a positive outlook for sectors experiencing price increases, such as industrial metals and AI-driven technology [6][18] - The earnings growth forecast remains focused on high-growth areas, particularly those benefiting from cyclical price increases and export advantages in mid-to-high-end manufacturing [6][18][21]

国内外贵金属价格剧烈波动，2月1日，工商银行再次紧急发布风险提示。 提示中，工商银行建议投资者在审慎评估自身风险承受能力的基础上，保持理性投资心态，避免盲目追涨杀跌。建议从中长期视角考虑， 坚持分批分散、适度均衡的原则进行投资配置。请投资者密切关注行情变化，合理控制持仓规模，有效防范市场波动风险。 交通银行公告显示，自1月31日起，客户办理相关业务也有了风险评测要求。 近期多家银行还通过投资起点调整、交易限额调整等手段，进一步提醒投资者注意风险。 建设银行1月30日宣布，2月2日起个人黄金积存定期积存起点上调至1500元，覆盖日均积存及自选日积存，成为首家将参与门槛提至1500 元的国有大行。 今年1月份，就在贵金属价格出现剧烈波动前后，已有三家国有大行要求客户在办理相关业务时需增加风险评测。 1月12日，工商银行要求办理开户、主动积存或新增定投计划的个人客户，需完成风险承受能力评估、取得C3-平衡型及以上的评估结果并 签署风险揭示书方可办理。 农业银行公告自1月30日起，对个人客户参与存金通黄金积存交易时，需取得谨慎型及以上评估结果。 男子用SIM卡炼出191克黄金，价值21万元？当事人最新回应 招商银行、 ...

国内外贵金属价格剧烈波动，今天（2月1日），工商银行再次紧急发布风险提示。 提示中，工商银行建议投资者在审慎评估自身风险承受能力的基础上，保持理性投资心态，避免盲目追涨杀跌。建议从中长期视角考虑，坚 持分批分散、适度均衡的原则进行投资配置。请投资者密切关注行情变化，合理控制持仓规模，有效防范市场波动风险。 农业银行公告自1月30日起，对个人客户参与存金通黄金积存交易时，需取得谨慎型及以上评估结果。 今年1月份，就在贵金属价格出现剧烈波动前后，已有三家国有大行要求客户在办理相关业务时需增加风险评测。 1月12日，工商银行要求办理开户、主动积存或新增定投计划的个人客户，需完成风险承受能力评估、取得C3-平衡型及以上的评估结果并签 署风险揭示书方可办理。 交通银行公告显示，自1月31日起，客户办理相关业务也有了风险评测要求。 近期多家银行还通过投资起点调整、交易限额调整等手段，进一步提醒投资者注意风险。 建设银行1月30日宣布，2月2日起个人黄金积存定期积存起点上调至1500元，覆盖日均积存及自选日积存，成为首家将参与门槛提至1500元 的国有大行。 招商银行、平安银行均自2月2日起调整门槛。其中，招行黄金账户活期 ...

本文转自【中新经纬】； 国内外贵金属价格剧烈波动，2月1日，工商银行再次紧急发布风险提示。 提示中，工商银行建议投资者在审慎评估自身风险承受能力的基础上，保持理性投资心态，避免盲目追 涨杀跌。建议从中长期视角考虑，坚持分批分散、适度均衡的原则进行投资配置。请投资者密切关注行 情变化，合理控制持仓规模，有效防范市场波动风险。 近期多家银行还通过投资起点调整、交易限额调整等手段，进一步提醒投资者注意风险。 建设银行1月30日宣布，2月2日起个人黄金积存定期积存起点上调至1500元，覆盖日均积存及自选日积 存，成为首家将参与门槛提至1500元的国有大行。 今年1月份，就在贵金属价格出现剧烈波动前后，已有三家国有大行要求客户在办理相关业务时需增加 风险评测。 1月12日，工商银行要求办理开户、主动积存或新增定投计划的个人客户，需完成风险承受能力评估、 取得C3-平衡型及以上的评估结果并签署风险揭示书方可办理。 农业银行公告自1月30日起，对个人客户参与存金通黄金积存交易时，需取得谨慎型及以上评估结果。 交通银行公告显示，自1月31日起，客户办理相关业务也有了风险评测要求。 招商银行、平安银行均自2月2日起调整门槛。其 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline after a strong rally, with the April gold futures price dropping below $4,800 per ounce, marking a decline of over 10% [1]. Price Movements - On January 30, the spot gold price fell by more than 12%, reaching a low of $4,682 per ounce, and closed down 9.25% at $4,880.03 per ounce [1]. - The domestic gold jewelry prices have also been adjusted downward, with most products seeing a price drop of around 80 yuan per gram within two days [1]. - Major gold brands in China, such as Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang, reported significant price drops, with Chow Tai Fook's gold price falling from 1,706 yuan per gram on January 29 to 1,625 yuan per gram on January 31, a decrease of 81 yuan over two days [11]. Market Sentiment - Consumers are reacting to the price drop by purchasing gold, with reports of long queues at gold recycling centers and increased buying activity in investment gold bars [1][3][6]. - A consumer in Beijing spent over 200,000 yuan to buy 200 grams of gold, expressing confidence in gold as a long-term investment despite short-term price fluctuations [3]. - In Nanchang, consumers are also eager to buy gold, fearing further price increases, with one individual stating they were ready to spend tens of thousands of yuan due to the recent price drop [6]. Market Analysis - The recent drop in gold prices is attributed to an overheated market, with volatility nearing historical extremes and speculative funds showing signs of profit-taking [14][15]. - The gold price's steep ascent has been rare, with monthly increases exceeding 20% being historically uncommon since 1968 [15]. - The market is currently characterized by a cautious short-term outlook but maintains a long-term optimistic view on gold prices [14]. Regulatory Changes - Major banks, including Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of Communications, have increased risk assessment requirements for clients engaging in gold-related transactions following the recent volatility [17][19]. - Agricultural Bank has mandated that clients must have a cautious risk tolerance level or higher to participate in certain gold investment activities [17]. - Bank of Communications has adjusted its policies to allow only clients with higher risk tolerance to engage in all gold wallet services, while those with lower risk assessments face restrictions [19]. Price Forecast - Some market analysts expect gold prices to rebound, with predictions that prices could rise to around 1,500 yuan per gram during the upcoming holiday season [8].

记者丨曾静娇唐婧 编辑丨刘雪莹 视频丨许婷婷 国内外贵金属价格剧烈波动，2月1日，工商银行再次紧急发布风险提示。 提示中，工商银行建议投资者在审慎评估自身风险承受能力的基础上，保持理性投资心态，避免盲目追涨杀跌。建议从中长期视角考虑，坚 持分批分散、适度均衡的原则进行投资配置。请投资者密切关注行情变化，合理控制持仓规模，有效防范市场波动风险。 今年1月份，就在贵金属价格出现剧烈波动前后，已有三家国有大行要求客户在办理相关业务时需增加风险评测。 1月12日，工商银行要求办理开户、主动积存或新增定投计划的个人客户，需完成风险承受能力评估、取得C3-平衡型及以上的评估结果并签 署风险揭示书方可办理。 农业银行公告自1月30日起，对个人客户参与存金通黄金积存交易时，需取得谨慎型及以上评估结果。 交通银行公告显示，自1月31日起，客户办理相关业务也有了风险评测要求。 近期多家银行还通过投资起点调整、交易限额调整等手段，进一步提醒投资者注意风险。 建设银行1月30日宣布，2月2日起个人黄金积存定期积存起点上调至1500元，覆盖日均积存及自选日积存，成为首家将参与门槛提至1500元 的国有大行。 有品牌金饰克价跌去160元 ...

记者丨曾静娇 唐婧 编辑丨刘雪莹 视频丨许婷婷 国内外贵金属价格剧烈波动，2月1日，工商银行再次紧急发布风险提示。 提示中，工商银行建议投资者在审慎评估自身风险承受能力的基础上，保持理性投资心态，避 免盲目追涨杀跌。建议从中长期视角考虑，坚持分批分散、适度均衡的原则进行投资配置。请 投资者密切关注行情变化，合理控制持仓规模，有效防范市场波动风险。 今年1月份，就在贵金属价格出现剧烈波动前后，已有三家国有大行要求客户在办理相关业务 时需增加风险评测。 1月12日，工商银行要求办理开户、主动积存或新增定投计划的个人客户，需完成风险承 受能力评估、取得C3-平衡型及以上的评估结果并签署风险揭示书方可办理。 农业银行公告自1月30日起，对个人客户参与存金通黄金积存交易时，需取得谨慎型及以 上评估结果。 交通银行公告显示，自1月31日起，客户办理相关业务也有了风险评测要求。 近期多家银行还通过投资起点调整、交易限额调整等手段，进一步提醒投资者注意风险。 建设银行1月30日宣布，2月2日起个人黄金积存定期积存起点上调至1500元，覆盖日均积 存及自选日积存，成为首家将参与门槛提至1500元的国有大行。 受特朗普提名"鹰派 ...