Market Overview - The Nikkei fell 1.68% to 49,407.31, marking a weak start to the month after seven consecutive months of gains in November [1] - The broader Topix index decreased by 1.01% to 3,344.48 [1] - Japanese government bond (JGB) yields reached 17-year highs, contributing to market volatility [1] Currency and Interest Rates - The yen strengthened against the dollar, influenced by comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, which increased speculation about a potential interest rate hike this month [1] - Market reactions were noted as different from previous trends, with rising yields and currency movements impacting investor sentiment [1] Company Performance - Advantest, a chip-testing equipment maker, saw a decline of 4.37%, significantly impacting the Nikkei [3] - Fast Retailing, owner of the Uniqlo brand, experienced a loss of 1.58% [3] - Fujikura, an optic fibre cable manufacturer, dropped 8.58%, becoming the largest percentage loser on the Nikkei [4] - Mitsui Kinzoku, a producer of materials for data centres, fell by 7.15% [5] Banking Sector - The banking sector showed resilience, with Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group gaining 2.75% and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group rising by 2.33%, making them the top percentage gainers on the Nikkei [5] - Mizuho Financial Group also increased by 1.55% [5] - The bank index rose by 1.96%, contrasting with the overall market trend [5] Industry Performance - All but two of the Tokyo Stock Exchange's 33 industry sub-indexes declined, with energy explorers falling 3.55%, marking the worst performance [5] - The bank index emerged as the best performer, reflecting positive sentiment towards potential interest rate hikes [5]

今日早参 2025 年 12 月 01 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：价格回升较产量明显 11 月制造业 PMI 较 10 月的 49%回升至 49.2%（彭博一致预期 49.2%），较 往年季节性水平偏低；非制造业商务活动指数较 10 月的 50.1%回落至 49.5%（彭博一致预期 50%）。11 月制造业 PMI 供需两端分项指标均边际改 善、价格指标亦有所修复——具体看，PMI 分项中生产、采购量较 10 月的 49.7%/49.0%上升至 50.0%/49.5%；新订单、新出口订单、就业人员 PMI 亦 较 10 月回升 0.4/1.7/0.1 个百分点至 49.2%/47.6%/48.4%。此外，商品价格 指数整体回升，购进价格及出厂价格分别较 10 月上行 1.1/0.7 个百分点至 53.6%/48.2%。行业中，高新技术制造业连续 10 个月位于扩张区间，而装 备 制 造 业 / 消 费 品 行 业 PMI 较 10 月 的 50.2%/50.1% 分别回落至 49.8%/49.4% ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Semiconductor and Semiconductor Capital Equipment (SPE) sector - **Market Forecast**: Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market is projected to grow by 2% YoY in CY2025, 11% in CY2026, and 8% in CY2027, driven by increased demand for generative AI and improved capital expenditure (capex) from device makers [2][6][15] Core Insights - **WFE Market Growth**: The WFE market grew approximately 9% YoY in 2024 and is expected to expand further due to rising demand for complex technologies such as DRAM interconnect etching and 3D NAND flash memory layers [6][15] - **Semiconductor Shipments**: Global semiconductor shipments increased by 28% YoY in September 2025, marking 25 consecutive months of growth, driven by advanced logic chips and HBM for generative AI [6][15] - **Advanced Packaging Technologies**: The Taiwan advanced packaging equipment sector is expected to see structural growth, with significant demand for CoWoS and CoPoS technologies, particularly in AI applications [7][24][47] Technology Developments - **CoWoS and CoPoS**: CoWoS capacity is forecasted to reach 105k and 125k wafers per minute (wfpm) by the end of 2026 and 2027, respectively. CoPoS is anticipated to succeed CoWoS by 2028, potentially increasing average selling prices (ASP) by 50-100% due to its complexity [7][24][47] - **HBM-TCB Technology**: Flux-based TCB is expected to dominate until 20-Hi HBM5, with a shift to HCB anticipated due to physical limitations. Hanmi is expected to maintain a significant market share in TCB technology [8][49] Stock Recommendations - **Preferred Stocks**: - **Japan**: Tokyo Electron (8035 JT) and Advantest (6857 JT) are favored due to their exposure to the growing WFE market and increased test times [8][49] - **Taiwan**: Grand Process Tech (3131 TT) is preferred over Scientech (3583 TT) and All Ring Tech (6187 TT) based on advanced packaging ramp-up timelines [7][47] Additional Insights - **Capex Trends**: TSMC's capex is projected to increase to $48 billion in 2026 and $52 billion in 2027, driven by generative AI demand and technology transitions [24][47] - **Memory Chip Market Dynamics**: The memory chip market is expected to experience a stronger and longer-lasting upcycle, with rising prices for DRAM and NAND chips due to supply constraints and increased demand for AI applications [24][25] - **Chinese Semiconductor Market**: Preference for SPE makers and foundries is noted, with expectations of sustained capex and domestic demand, while fabless companies may face margin pressures [25][49] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is poised for significant growth driven by advancements in AI and technology, with specific focus on WFE and advanced packaging technologies. Stock recommendations reflect a positive outlook on companies well-positioned to benefit from these trends.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE)** market, particularly imports to **China**. - The data indicates a **year-to-date (YTD)** increase of **7%** in WFE imports to China as of October 2025, reflecting strong demand in the region [2][34]. Import Data Highlights - **October 2025** WFE imports to China totaled **USD 3.23 billion**, showing a **month-over-month (MoM)** decrease of **35%** but a **year-over-year (YoY)** increase of **11%** [2][23]. - The **YTD total** for WFE imports reached **USD 32.2 billion**, maintaining a **YoY growth of 7%** [24]. - The largest segment of imports in October was **Lithography**, accounting for **USD 1.03 billion** (32% of total imports), with a **YoY increase of 90%** [24][57]. Equipment Type Performance - **Lithography**: MoM decrease of **25%**, YTD YoY decrease of **10%** [3][24]. - **Deposition**: MoM decrease of **42%**, YTD YoY increase of **13%** [3][24]. - **Dry Etch**: MoM decrease of **27%**, YTD YoY increase of **58%** [3][24]. - **Process Control**: MoM decrease of **66%**, YTD YoY increase of **11%** [3][24]. Regional Insights - The share of imports from **US, Malaysia, and Singapore** increased to **38%** YTD, up from **33%** last year, while Japan's share decreased to **23%** from **26%** [3][42]. - **Shanghai** and **Guangdong** accounted for **58%** of total imports YTD [3]. Company-Specific Insights - **ASML**: Expected to see **China sales** reach **EUR 2.55 billion** in Q4, up **9% sequentially** and **33% YoY**, driven by strong lithography imports [4][68]. - **LRCX**: Anticipated **China revenues** to decrease by **28% QoQ** in December, with China exposure at **32%** of total revenues [5][87]. - **AMAT**: Reported a **23% QoQ decline** in China revenues, with actual exposure at **29%**, lower than regression estimates [6][90]. - **TEL**: Projected a **17% YoY decline** in China revenue [8]. - **Screen**: Expected a significant **84% YoY decline** in China revenue [9]. Investment Implications - **NAURA**: Rated **Outperform** with a target price of **CNY 480.00**, benefiting from domestic WFE substitution in China [12]. - **AMEC**: Rated **Outperform** with a target price of **CNY 380.00**, recognized for its technology and market share gains [13]. - **Piotech**: Rated **Outperform** with a target price of **CNY 375.00**, noted for product innovation [14]. - **Tokyo Electron**: Rated **Outperform** with a target price of **¥39,400**, expected to gain market share [15]. - **Advantest**: Rated **Market-Perform** with a target price of **¥20,400**, benefiting from increased testing intensity [16]. Conclusion - The WFE market in China shows robust demand despite some month-over-month declines, with significant implications for major players in the semiconductor equipment sector. The data suggests a complex landscape with varying performance across different equipment types and companies, highlighting both opportunities and challenges in the market.

Market Overview - Asia-Pacific markets opened December mostly in the red, influenced by fresh manufacturing data from China and rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month [1] - Traders are pricing in an 87.4% chance of a quarter-point rate cut for the upcoming Fed meeting on December 10 [1] China Manufacturing Data - China's factory activity unexpectedly contracted in November, as indicated by a private survey, reflecting soft domestic demand [2] - The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9 in November, missing analysts' expectations of 50.5, indicating contraction [3] - Official data showed China's factory activity improved slightly to 49.2 in November, marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction [3] Hong Kong Market Reaction - Hong Kong-listed firms with exposure to digital assets saw significant declines after the People's Bank of China warned of illegal activities related to digital currencies [4] - Stocks of Yunfeng Financial and Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group tumbled more than 7%, while Guotai Junan fell as much as 3% [4] Japan and South Korea Market Performance - Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 1.3%, with notable declines in companies such as Fujikura (down 8.11%) and Sumitomo Pharma (down 5.82%) [5] - South Korea's Kospi index decreased by 0.66%, while the small-cap Kosdaq advanced by 1.29% [5] - Australia's ASX/S&P 200 declined by 0.23% [5]

Macro Insights - In October 2025, industrial enterprises' profits fell to -5.5% year-on-year from 21.6% in September, while revenue growth also declined to -3.3% from 3.1% [2] - The cash flow of industrial enterprises continues to improve, with cash and short-term investments rising to 5.3% year-on-year in September from 5% in August [2] Fixed Income Analysis - The report discusses the transition of China's economy into a new phase of old and new driving forces, emphasizing the need for a new framework for fundamental analysis [2] Consumer Sector Strategy - The real estate cycle, particularly changes in real estate prices, is crucial for assessing the recovery of consumption in 2026, with expectations of structural stabilization in housing prices [3] - The current allocation and valuation of the essential consumer sector are at historical lows, indicating a high probability of a bottoming out, suggesting opportunities for investment [3] Aerospace and Defense - The report highlights the advancements in reusable rocket technology, with China actively developing rockets like Zhuque-3 and Long March 12A, which are expected to enhance space transportation capacity and reduce costs [5] - The success of reusable rockets is anticipated to accelerate the construction of large satellite constellations, particularly in satellite internet [5] Company-Specific Insights - BOSS Zhipin (2076 HK) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 107.6 HKD, benefiting from its leading position in online recruitment and expected steady profit growth [6] - Advantest (6857 JP) is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 23,000 JPY, poised to benefit from the increasing complexity of AI chips and the growth of the semiconductor testing market [6] - Gaotu Group (GOTU US) reported a revenue of 1.58 billion CNY for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%, with a focus on improving profitability through AI technology [9] - Atour (ATAT US) achieved a revenue of 2.628 billion CNY in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.4%, with a strong outlook for both hotel and retail segments [10] - Zhongjiao Holdings (839 HK) reported a revenue of 7.363 billion CNY for FY25, indicating a year-on-year growth of 11.9%, transitioning towards a focus on internal growth and value enhancement [10]

Market Overview - Asian stock markets are mostly higher, driven by positive cues from Wall Street and optimism regarding interest rates following dovish comments from US Fed officials [1][2] - The Nikkei 225 Index in Japan is trading sharply higher, with gains across most sectors, particularly in technology and financial stocks [9][10] Interest Rate Outlook - Recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams and other Fed officials suggest a preference for lowering interest rates, with an 84.7% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Federal Reserve's December meeting, up from 30.1% a week ago [2][3] - Investor confidence is bolstered by speculation that Kevin Hassett, who supports lower interest rates, may become the next U.S. Fed Chair [3] Australian Market Performance - The S&P/ASX 200 Index is gaining, with a rise of 15.80 points or 0.18% to 8,622.30, following three sessions of gains [5] - The value of new private capital expenditure in Australia increased by a seasonally adjusted 6.4% in Q3 2025, reaching A$48.999 billion, surpassing forecasts [8] Sector Performance - In the Australian market, gold miners are performing well, with Evolution Mining gaining over 2% and Northern Star Resources up more than 1% [7] - Technology stocks in Australia are also seeing gains, with Afterpay owner Block up more than 2% and Zip surging over 5% [6] Japanese Market Highlights - The Nikkei 225 closed the morning session at 50,203.38, up 644.31 points or 1.30%, with major gains in technology stocks like Advantest and Screen Holdings [10][11] - Market heavyweight SoftBank Group is surging more than 6%, contributing to the overall positive sentiment in the Japanese market [10] Broader Asian Market Trends - South Korea's market is up 1.2%, while other Asian markets like China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan are higher by 0.2% to 0.7% [13] - The major averages on Wall Street closed higher for the fourth consecutive session, indicating a continued upward trend [14]

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above $90,500, but this increase is accompanied by rising realized losses and weakening demand across the market [1][5] - Investors are exiting positions at a loss, indicating a potential exhaustion in the market rather than a recovery [2] - Large deposits are driving the latest BTC inflows to exchanges, with the average deposit value significantly increasing as whales sell their coins [3] On-Chain Analysis - The recent surge in deposits coincides with weakening liquidity conditions, raising concerns about the market's ability to absorb supply [4] - Realized losses have reached levels similar to previous cycle lows, and the short-term holder profit and loss ratio has collapsed, indicating a lack of buying momentum [5] Price Movements - Bitcoin is holding above the $90,000 level, but on-chain and derivatives data suggest the rebound lacks conviction and is vulnerable without stronger demand [6] - Ether (ETH) is trading near the $2,900 zone, with rising large-holder deposits and weak demand signals indicating a fragile rebound [6] - Gold has climbed above $4,170, driven by expectations for lower U.S. interest rates boosting demand for the metal [6] Stock Market Performance - Asia-Pacific stocks have risen, with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 1.42%, influenced by Wall Street's rebound on rising hopes for Fed rate cuts [7]

Group 1 - Asia-Pacific markets opened higher, driven by Wall Street gains and growing Fed rate-cut hopes [1] - Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 1.42%, led by tech stocks, with Advantest up 5%, SoftBank soaring over 5%, and Tokyo Electron increasing by 2.09% [1] - South Korea's Kospi advanced 1.05%, while the small-cap Kosdaq climbed 0.39%, with the Bank of Korea maintaining its benchmark interest rate at 2.5% for the fourth consecutive meeting [2] Group 2 - The Korean won has weakened against the US dollar, reaching its lowest level since April, amid a strained housing market [2] - Australia's ASX/S&P 200 rose 0.42%, reflecting positive market sentiment [2] - Futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index indicated a flat open, with investors awaiting China's industrial profits data for the first 10 months of the year [3]

Market Overview - Asia-Pacific markets opened higher, influenced by Wall Street gains and expectations of a potential U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December [1][3] - Markets are pricing in over an 84% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, with New York Fed President indicating room for lower rates "in the near term" [3] Company Performance - Kioxia's shares fell more than 12% following reports that Bain Capital plans to sell approximately 350 billion yen ($2.24 billion) worth of shares, reducing its ownership from 51% to 44% [4] - Kioxia reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that missed expectations, leading to a 23.03% drop in its shares the following day [5] Regional Market Movements - Japanese tech stocks saw gains, with Advantest rising 2.5% and Tokyo Electron increasing by 0.61% [3] - South Korea's Kospi advanced by 0.67%, while the small-cap Kosdaq climbed 0.64% [5] - Australia's ASX/S&P 200 was trading 1.2% higher, with inflation accelerating in October, marking the fastest pace in seven months [5][6]