Core Viewpoint - UBS expresses a more optimistic outlook on the Chinese construction machinery industry compared to market expectations, predicting that the current upward cycle will last until 2029, rather than the commonly anticipated peak in 2028 to 2029 [1] Industry Summary - The growth potential and strong profitability resilience of companies in the mining-related business have not been fully reflected in stock performance [1] - It is estimated that the global market share of Chinese equipment manufacturers in mining trucks and excavators will exceed 20% by 2030, with mining-related business potentially becoming another growth driver for companies [1] Company Summary - Zhonglian Heavy Industry and China Longgong are rated "Neutral," with target prices raised to HKD 7.8 and HKD 3.2, respectively [1] - Earnings per share growth forecasts for 2025 to 2026 have been adjusted upwards to 49% and 27% for Zhonglian Heavy Industry, and 21% and 17% for China Longgong [1] - XCMG is listed as the industry favorite with a "Buy" rating, supported by its high proportion of mining-related business, strong growth, and attractive valuation [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in the number of enterprises in the metal products, machinery, and equipment repair industry, which increased by 90 to a total of 924 enterprises from January to September 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.79% [1] - The proportion of these enterprises in the total industrial enterprises stands at 0.18% [1] - The data indicates a significant increase in the scale of the industry, with the threshold for large-scale industrial enterprises raised from an annual main business income of 5 million to 20 million yuan since 2011 [1] Group 2 - The article references a report by Zhiyan Consulting titled "2025-2031 China Metal Products Industry Market Operation Pattern and Prospect Strategic Analysis Report" [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting agency in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services for investment decisions [1]

行业评级：买入（维持） 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 16 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 机械行业周报 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -3.3 -5.2 16.5 绝对收益 -2.8 5.0 33.1 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/09 机械设备(申万) 沪深300 关注锂电专用设备、机床工具、机器人 相关研究： 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：轩鹏程 证书编号：S0500521070003 Tel：(8621) 50295321 Email：xuanpc@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 ——机械行业周报（2025.11.10~2025.11.14） 核心要点： ❑ 锂电专用设备：10 月我国新能源汽车销量同比增长 19.9% 根据 Wind 数据，2025 年 10 月，我国新能源汽车销量约 171.5 万 辆，同比增长 19.9%，1-10 月我国新能源汽车总销量约 1294.3 万辆， 同比增长 32.7% ...

Core Viewpoint - DeepWay, a new energy heavy truck company co-founded by Baidu and Lionbridge, has submitted its prospectus for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the first smart heavy truck company to list in Hong Kong. The company has shown significant revenue growth but is still in a loss-making phase, raising questions about its profitability as it seeks to enter the public market [1][31]. Company Overview - DeepWay was established in December 2020 and has quickly positioned itself as a leading player in the new energy heavy truck sector, with a global market share of 2.7% as of 2024 [1]. - The company reported revenues of 426 million yuan, 1.969 billion yuan, and 1.506 billion yuan for the years 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 362.5% and 97.6% [1]. - Despite high revenue growth, DeepWay has incurred significant losses, totaling approximately 1.702 billion yuan from 2022 to the first half of 2025 [1]. Financial Performance - DeepWay's primary revenue source is the sale of new energy heavy trucks, which accounted for 99.9%, 99.6%, and 99.4% of total revenue in 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively [1]. - The company's gross margins are concerning, with rates of 0.4%, 0.5%, and 2.9% for 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively, while traditional heavy trucks typically have gross margins of 10% to 15% [1][2]. Industry Context - The heavy truck industry is experiencing a price war, leading to a decline in average gross margins below 10% [3][4]. - DeepWay's pricing strategy aligns with industry trends, with suggested retail prices ranging from 470,000 to 700,000 yuan [4]. - The market is increasingly concentrated, with the top five companies holding a market share of 71% as of early 2024, indicating a "Matthew Effect" where larger firms continue to dominate [15][16]. Supply Chain and Customer Concentration - DeepWay's customer base is highly concentrated, with the top five clients accounting for 50.7% of revenue in 2024, and the first client alone contributing about 25% [6][8]. - On the supply side, the top five suppliers represent 92.3% of total procurement in 2024, with the largest supplier accounting for over 60% [7][8]. Technological Development - DeepWay has invested heavily in R&D, with expenditures of 231 million yuan, 352 million yuan, and 365 million yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, and 179 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [9][10]. - The company has developed a full-stack three-electric system, which constitutes over 60% of the vehicle's cost, aiming to control costs and enhance competitiveness [11]. - DeepWay's autonomous driving technology is still in development, focusing on a gradual approach to commercialize its capabilities [12][13]. Market Challenges - The new energy heavy truck market is facing significant challenges, including high competition from established players and the need for new entrants to prove reliability and cost-effectiveness [21][22]. - The narrative around autonomous driving technology does not resonate with commercial vehicle buyers, who prioritize total cost of ownership (TCO) over technological features [24][26]. - DeepWay's reliance on partnerships for manufacturing and technology raises questions about its long-term viability and market positioning [13][31]. Future Outlook - DeepWay aims to expand its international market presence, targeting over 60% of revenue from overseas by 2030, with existing networks in Singapore, Thailand, and the UAE [32]. - The company is focused on reducing manufacturing costs through technological upgrades and is exploring new market opportunities to enhance its competitive edge [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting highlighted the importance of safety, compliance, and social responsibility among Chinese enterprises operating in Brazil, emphasizing the need for enhanced political awareness and risk management [1][2]. Group 1: Meeting Overview - The Consul General of China in Rio de Janeiro, Tian Min, attended a safety work seminar for Chinese enterprises in the region, with over 30 representatives participating both online and offline [1]. - Key representatives from major companies such as State Grid, PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, China Development Bank, Bank of Communications, BYD, XCMG, and China National Materials reported on their safety and compliance efforts [2]. Group 2: Company Responsibilities - Companies were encouraged to deepen their understanding of the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, improve their political stance, and integrate business development with safety measures [2]. - Attendees committed to adhering to the meeting's directives, emphasizing legal compliance, safety risk prevention, and fulfilling social responsibilities, aiming to be storytellers of China's narrative and promoters of China-Brazil friendship [2].

Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector experienced a decline of 1.04% on November 14, with Jin Dao Technology leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3990.49, down 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13216.03, down 1.93% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the engineering machinery sector included: - Huadong Heavy Machine (002685) with a closing price of 7.81, up 6.40% on a trading volume of 963,100 shares and a turnover of 744 million [1] - Tietuo Machinery (920706) closed at 25.35, up 4.80% with a trading volume of 77,700 shares and a turnover of 197 million [1] - Changling Hydraulic (6885509) closed at 63.38, up 3.56% with a trading volume of 15,300 shares and a turnover of 95.99 million [1] - Major decliners included: - Jin Dao Technology (301279) closed at 28.15, down 4.25% with a trading volume of 32,400 shares and a turnover of 92.63 million [2] - Weiman Sealing (301161) closed at 33.90, down 2.92% with a trading volume of 33,900 shares and a turnover of 117 million [2] - Liu Gong (000528) closed at 11.37, down 2.74% with a trading volume of 321,300 shares and a turnover of 36.9 million [2] Capital Flow - The engineering machinery sector saw a net outflow of 250 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 176 million [2] - The capital flow for key stocks showed: - Huadong Heavy Machine had a net inflow of 126 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 18.7 million from retail investors [3] - Jin Dao Technology experienced a net outflow of 30.82 million from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 6.47 million [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese construction machinery industry has been experiencing a significant upturn since 2025, driven by both domestic and international demand [1] - The issuance of the Fuguo Fund's construction machinery ETF on November 14 provides investors with an efficient tool to capitalize on this industry opportunity [1] Domestic Demand - Excavator sales in China increased by 21.50% year-on-year from January to September 2025, indicating a clear recovery trend [2] - This growth is attributed to increased infrastructure investment, particularly in large-scale projects like water conservancy, and the release of demand for equipment upgrades due to national policies [2] - The expansion of application scenarios, such as high-standard farmland construction, is driving the penetration of small excavators into new fields like agriculture and municipal projects [2] Electrification Trend - The penetration rate of electric loaders reached 23% in the first three quarters of 2025, with electric excavators making breakthroughs in various applications [2] - The industry's electrification is expected to initiate a new growth cycle, supported by rising environmental standards and decreasing technology costs [2] International Market Growth - From 2015 to 2024, China's excavator export volume has seen a compound annual growth rate of 38%, driven by the Belt and Road Initiative and improvements in product performance and service systems [3] - There remains significant potential for Chinese construction machinery to penetrate high-end markets in Europe and the U.S., with the global electrification trend providing new opportunities for Chinese companies [3] Investment Value - The Fuguo Fund's construction machinery ETF tracks the CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index, which has shown a cumulative return of 136.32% since its base date, outperforming major broad-based indices [4] - The top ten constituent stocks of the index account for over 70% of its weight, including leading companies like Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG, which are all valued at over 100 billion [4] - The global construction machinery market is highly concentrated, with the top 50 companies generating sales of $237.6 billion in 2024, and domestic leaders are transitioning to a high-end manufacturing sector characterized by globalization, electrification, and intelligence [4] Conclusion - The construction machinery industry is currently benefiting from a dual drive of domestic recovery and accelerated international expansion, alongside the electrification transformation, highlighting its investment value [5]

Core Insights - The Chinese construction machinery industry has been experiencing a significant upturn since 2025, driven by both domestic and international demand [1][2] - The launch of the Fuguo Fund's construction machinery ETF on November 14 provides investors with an efficient tool to capitalize on this industry opportunity [1][5] Domestic Demand - Excavator sales in China increased by 21.50% year-on-year from January to September 2025, indicating a clear recovery trend [2] - Factors contributing to this growth include increased infrastructure investment under "stabilizing growth" policies, particularly in large-scale projects like water conservancy [2] - The demand for equipment upgrades is being driven by the aging of existing machinery and national policies promoting equipment renewal [2] Electrification Trend - The penetration rate of electric loaders reached 23% in the first three quarters of 2025, with electric excavators making breakthroughs in various applications [2] - The industry's electrification is expected to initiate a new growth cycle due to rising environmental standards and decreasing technology costs [2] International Market Growth - From 2015 to 2024, China's excavator export volume has seen a compound annual growth rate of 38%, fueled by the Belt and Road Initiative and improvements in product performance [3] - There remains significant potential for Chinese construction machinery to penetrate high-end markets in Europe and the U.S. [3] Investment Value - The Fuguo Fund's ETF tracks the CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index, which has shown a cumulative return of 136.32% since its inception on June 30, 2016, outperforming major broad-based indices [4] - The top ten constituent stocks of the index account for over 70% of its weight, including leading companies like SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG [4] - The global construction machinery market is highly concentrated, with the top 50 companies generating sales of $237.6 billion in 2024, providing a favorable environment for domestic leaders to enhance their market share [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hai'an Group (001233.SZ) is set to be publicly offered on the Shenzhen Main Board, focusing on the research, production, and sales of giant all-steel engineering radial tires and mining tire operation management [1][2]. Company Overview - Hai'an Group is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and was awarded the title of "specialized and innovative 'little giant'" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2021 [1]. - The company has been acknowledged as a "service-oriented manufacturing demonstration enterprise" since 2018 [1]. Financial Information - The offering price is set at 48.00 yuan per share, with an institutional quotation of 48.93 yuan per share, and a market capitalization of 6.695 billion yuan [2]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.94, compared to the industry average P/E ratio of 26.38 [2]. - The company plans to allocate raised funds for various projects, including: - Expansion of all-steel giant engineering radial tire production: 1.945 billion yuan (65.90%) - Automation upgrades for production lines: 371 million yuan (12.56%) - R&D center construction: 286 million yuan (9.69%) - Working capital: 350 million yuan (11.86%) [2]. Market Position - Giant engineering tires are defined as tires with a rim diameter of 49 inches or more, primarily used in large mining dump trucks and loaders [3]. - The global market for all-steel giant tires has seen growth from 167,000 units in 2017 to 215,000 units in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.18% [3]. - Hai'an Group has become the third manufacturer globally capable of mass-producing a full range of all-steel giant tires, breaking the domestic market monopoly held by international brands [3]. Production and Sales - In 2022, Hai'an Group ranked first in domestic production and fourth globally for giant tire output [4]. - The company has established a significant customer base, including well-known domestic firms such as Zijin Mining and XCMG [4]. - Hai'an Group has a global presence with 12 overseas subsidiaries, selling products to dozens of countries and regions, with over 75% of revenue coming from exports [4]. Revenue Trends - The proportion of overseas sales in the main business revenue is projected to be 65.19% in 2022, increasing to 76.16% in 2023, and stabilizing around 67.18% by mid-2025 [4]. - Revenue from the Russian market has significantly increased, especially following the exit of major international brands from that market [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" [1] Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, domestic sales growth of excavators slowed down, while exports maintained rapid growth. This is attributed to preemptive inventory replenishment that has overstretched demand. Long-term demand for construction machinery is expected to be supported by the commencement of major national projects, accelerated funding, and replacement policies [5][6] - Excavator sales in October 2025 reached 18,096 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.77% but a month-on-month decrease of 8.87%. Domestic sales were 8,468 units, up 2.44% year-on-year, while export sales were 9,628 units, up 12.94% year-on-year [3] - Loader sales in October 2025 totaled 10,673 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.74% and a month-on-month increase of 1.36%. Domestic sales were 5,372 units, up 33.23% year-on-year, while export sales were 5,301 units, up 22.62% year-on-year [4] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales Data - In October 2025, excavator sales were 18,096 units, with domestic sales at 8,468 units and export sales at 9,628 units, representing 53.21% of total sales. Cumulative sales from January to October reached 192,135 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.03% [3] Loader Sales Data - Loader sales in October 2025 were 10,673 units, with domestic sales at 5,372 units and export sales at 5,301 units. Cumulative sales from January to October reached 104,412 units, a year-on-year increase of 15.82% [4] Market Trends - The report highlights a slowdown in domestic sales growth for excavators, while exports continue to grow rapidly. The export trade value for construction machinery in September was $5.271 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.78% [5] - The first three quarters of 2025 showed strong performance from major companies in the industry, with notable profit growth driven by globalization strategies and product optimization [6] - The report emphasizes the ongoing transition towards electrification and technological innovation in the construction machinery sector, with a focus on smart, high-end, and green technologies [6]