东海证券近日发布机械设备行业简评：2025年10月销售各类挖掘机18096台，同比增长7.77%，其中国 内销量8468台，同比增长2.44%；出口销量9628台，同比增长12.9%。2025年10月销售电动挖掘机16台 2025年1-10月共销售挖掘机192135台，同比增长17%；其中国内销量98345台，同比增长19.6%；出口销 量93790台，同比增长14.4%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 事件：中国工程机械工业协会发布2025年10月主要企业挖掘机销量统计。 挖掘机：2025年10月销售各类挖掘机18096台，同比增长7.77%，其中国内销量8468台，同比增长 2.44%；出口销量9628台，同比增长12.9%。2025年10月销售电动挖掘机16台2025年1-10月共销售挖掘机 192135台，同比增长17%；其中国内销量98345台，同比增长19.6%；出口销量93790台，同比增长 14.4%。 风险提示：贸易摩擦风险；海外需求放缓；市场竞争风险；政策不及预期风险。（东海证券 商俭） 挖掘机外销持续向好。国内方面，2025年1-10月挖掘机内销同比增长17%，复苏态势强劲；10月单 ...

Excavator Market Overview - In October 2025, a total of 18,096 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.77%. Domestic sales accounted for 8,468 units, up 2.44%, while exports reached 9,628 units, marking a 12.9% increase [1][2] - From January to October 2025, a total of 192,135 excavators were sold, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17%. Domestic sales were 98,345 units, up 19.6%, and exports were 93,790 units, increasing by 14.4% [2] Loader Market Overview - In October 2025, 10,673 loaders were sold, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 27.7%. Domestic sales were 5,372 units, up 33.2%, while exports totaled 5,301 units, increasing by 22.6% [5][6] - For the period from January to October 2025, total loader sales reached 104,412 units, with a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. Domestic sales were 55,368 units, up 21.8%, and exports were 49,044 units, growing by 9.69% [6] Electric Excavator Market - In October 2025, 16 electric excavators were sold, with specific sales across various weight categories [3] Electric Loader Market - In October 2025, 2,707 electric loaders were sold, with notable sales in the 5-ton category (1,633 units) and the 6-ton category (836 units) [7] Grader Market Overview - In October 2025, 634 graders were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.11%. Domestic sales were 102 units, up 22.9%, while exports reached 532 units, increasing by 1.14% [8] Crane Market Overview - In October 2025, 1,422 truck cranes were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 15%. Domestic sales were 738 units, up 41.7%, while exports were 684 units, down 4.47% [10] - For the period from January to October 2025, total truck crane sales were 16,527 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.78% [10] Crawler Crane Market Overview - In October 2025, 336 crawler cranes were sold, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 71.4%. Domestic sales were 97 units, up 54%, and exports reached 239 units, increasing by 79.7% [12] - From January to October 2025, total crawler crane sales were 2,701 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.9% [12] Forklift Market Overview - In October 2025, 114,250 forklifts were sold, with domestic sales of 70,388 units, up 16.2%, and exports of 43,862 units, increasing by 15.4% [17] - From January to October 2025, total forklift sales reached 1,220,656 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [17] Roller Market Overview - In October 2025, 1,162 rollers were sold, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.3%. Domestic sales were 421 units, up 6.85%, while exports reached 741 units, increasing by 27.8% [18] - For the period from January to October 2025, total roller sales were 14,726 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.6% [18] Paver Market Overview - In October 2025, 103 pavers were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.2%. Domestic sales were 63 units, up 8.62%, while exports reached 40 units, increasing by 48.1% [20] - From January to October 2025, total paver sales were 1,352 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.3% [20] Aerial Work Platform Market Overview - In October 2025, 9,120 aerial work platforms were sold, showing a year-on-year decline of 38.8%. Domestic sales were 3,856 units, down 41.8%, while exports reached 5,264 units, down 36.3% [22] - From January to October 2025, total aerial work platform sales were 141,021 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 30.6% [22] High-altitude Work Vehicle Market Overview - In October 2025, 322 high-altitude work vehicles were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.23%. Domestic sales were 319 units, up 16.8%, while exports were 3 units, down 90.9% [23] - From January to October 2025, total high-altitude work vehicle sales were 4,140 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.7% [23]

2025年以来，中国工程机械行业景气度持续攀升，呈现内外需共振格局。中国工程机械工业协会数据显 示，挖掘机9月总销量同比增长25.4%，其中出口量首次超越内销，释放出行业复苏的积极信号。与此 同时，行业盈利质量显著改善，2025年上半年工程机械行业归母净利润同比增速达21.59%，利润增幅 明显高于营收增长。在此背景下，富国基金旗下工程机械ETF（认购代码：516253/基金代码： 516250）于11月14日正式发行，为投资者把握本轮产业机遇提供高效配置工具。 行业步入新发展阶段，三重动力构筑长期成长逻辑 工程机械行业作为国民经济的基础性产业，与基建投资周期紧密相关。当前行业正经历深刻变革，呈现 出"国内更新需求筑底回升、海外出口高速增长、行业电动化转型加速"的三轮驱动特征。 国内需求方面，中国工程机械工业协会数据显示，2025年1-9月挖掘机内销量同比增长21.50%，企稳回 升态势明确。这一增长主要受益于多重因素，在"稳增长"政策背景下，基建投资稳步增加，特别是水利 水电等特大工程项目开工，其超长建设周期将持续拉动工程机械需求；同时，存量设备更新周期叠加国 家更新政策，带动设备更新需求的释放；且随着应用 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" [1] Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, domestic sales growth of excavators slowed down, while exports maintained rapid growth. This is attributed to preemptive inventory replenishment that has overstretched demand. Long-term demand for construction machinery is expected to be supported by the commencement of major national projects, accelerated funding, and replacement policies [5][6] - Excavator sales in October 2025 reached 18,096 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.77% but a month-on-month decrease of 8.87%. Domestic sales were 8,468 units, up 2.44% year-on-year, while export sales were 9,628 units, up 12.94% year-on-year [3] - Loader sales in October 2025 totaled 10,673 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.74% and a month-on-month increase of 1.36%. Domestic sales were 5,372 units, up 33.23% year-on-year, while export sales were 5,301 units, up 22.62% year-on-year [4] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales Data - In October 2025, excavator sales were 18,096 units, with domestic sales at 8,468 units and export sales at 9,628 units, representing 53.21% of total sales. Cumulative sales from January to October reached 192,135 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.03% [3] Loader Sales Data - Loader sales in October 2025 were 10,673 units, with domestic sales at 5,372 units and export sales at 5,301 units. Cumulative sales from January to October reached 104,412 units, a year-on-year increase of 15.82% [4] Market Trends - The report highlights a slowdown in domestic sales growth for excavators, while exports continue to grow rapidly. The export trade value for construction machinery in September was $5.271 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.78% [5] - The first three quarters of 2025 showed strong performance from major companies in the industry, with notable profit growth driven by globalization strategies and product optimization [6] - The report emphasizes the ongoing transition towards electrification and technological innovation in the construction machinery sector, with a focus on smart, high-end, and green technologies [6]

Group 1: Overview of Chinese Companies Going Global - The concept of "going global" has become a key development theme for Chinese companies, with a focus on technology innovation and deep localization to reshape the global business landscape [1] - Chinese companies are transitioning from being technology followers to becoming global innovation leaders, which significantly enhances their profit margins [1] Group 2: Mining Industry Expansion - Chinese mining companies possess high-quality production capacity and technology, with successful cases of "going global" in mineral resources and smelting [2] - Successful overseas ventures are characterized by strategic foresight, allowing companies to anticipate commodity cycles and secure strategic resources [2] - Companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum have seen over 50% year-on-year profit growth in the first three quarters, driven by increased overseas acquisitions [2][3] Group 3: Engineering Machinery Sector - Chinese engineering machinery firms are actively expanding into overseas markets, with core competitiveness stemming from continuous product technology improvements and cost-effective solutions [4] - By 2024, leading Chinese engineering machinery companies are expected to have over 40% of their revenue from overseas markets, with some already exceeding 50% [4] - The industry is expected to grow in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Eastern Europe, while also penetrating European and North American markets [4] Group 4: Beauty Industry Growth - The export value of Chinese mass-market beauty products is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, outpacing domestic market growth [5] - The Chinese beauty industry is expected to enter a new phase of growth, emphasizing research and product strength to explore new growth avenues [5][6] - The complete domestic supply chain provides a competitive edge for Chinese beauty brands in international markets, supported by experienced OEMs and raw material suppliers [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and the rating has been maintained [5][13]. Core Insights - The company has shown rapid growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a year-on-year increase of 46.58% in the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 71.36 billion yuan [9]. - The successful listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange marks a significant step in the company's global expansion strategy, enhancing its capital structure and international resource access [10]. - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of "strategic cooperation + major engineering practice" in the Tibet market, aiming to support local economic development through its advanced electric machinery [10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2023A: Revenue of 732.22 billion yuan, net profit of 45.27 billion yuan - 2024A: Revenue of 777.73 billion yuan, net profit of 59.75 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 891.39 billion yuan, net profit of 89.62 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 1,029.48 billion yuan, net profit of 116.58 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 1,163.45 billion yuan, net profit of 129.96 billion yuan [4][11]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.50 yuan - 2024A: 0.66 yuan - 2025E: 0.98 yuan - 2026E: 1.28 yuan - 2027E: 1.43 yuan [4][11]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2023A: 43.66 - 2024A: 33.08 - 2025E: 22.06 - 2026E: 16.96 - 2027E: 15.21 [4][11]. - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: - 2023A: 2.91 - 2024A: 2.75 - 2025E: 2.56 - 2026E: 2.35 - 2027E: 2.15 [4][11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its competitive edge in the global construction machinery sector through its three core strategies: globalization, digitalization, and low-carbon initiatives [10]. - The company has successfully established an A+H dual-platform listing structure, which is expected to facilitate its global expansion and improve its financing capabilities [10].

Core Insights - The company participated in the 2026 Investment Summit, highlighting strong resilience in domestic excavator sales due to the replacement cycle of existing equipment and the commencement of large infrastructure projects, which are driving demand in the domestic construction machinery industry [1] - The company is leading in global operations, with overseas revenue continuing to grow robustly, supported by high demand for mining equipment in regions like Indonesia and Africa [3] Domestic Market Performance - Domestic excavator sales show strong resilience, with September sales growth rates for small, medium, and large excavators at 29%, 6%, and -5% year-on-year respectively [2] - The recovery in domestic demand is primarily due to the replacement cycle of existing equipment, with the previous upcycle from 2015 to 2023 leading to a concentrated replacement period now [2] - Major projects such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station and the New Tibet Railway are expected to enhance overall demand for construction machinery [2] Overseas Market Expansion - The company’s overseas layout is advanced, with export sales growth rates for small, medium, and large excavators at 29%, 2%, and 94% year-on-year respectively in September [3] - The company reported overseas revenue of 26.302 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.72%, accounting for 58.7% of total revenue [3] - Key regions such as North America and Africa are experiencing strong growth, with the company being the largest construction machinery enterprise in China and the third largest globally from 2020 to 2024 [3] Electric and Mining Equipment Development - The company is committed to advancing electric vehicle research and development, with significant results expected from its electric strategy upgrade in 2025 [4] - The fifth generation of electric loaders was launched globally in March 2025, with models covering various operational needs [4] - The mining machinery segment is being strengthened to meet the growing overseas demand, with the first 400-ton hydraulic excavator set to roll off the production line in December 2024 [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 8.944 billion, 11.975 billion, and 15.591 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.98, 1.32, and 1.71 yuan [5] - The target price is set at 33 yuan, based on a 25 times PE ratio for 2026, reflecting the company's leadership in the industry and potential benefits from the domestic construction machinery upcycle [5]

Excavator Sales - In October 2025, a total of 18,096 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.77% [1] - Domestic sales accounted for 8,468 units, with a growth of 2.44%, while exports reached 9,628 units, showing a growth of 12.9% [1] - From January to October 2025, total excavator sales reached 192,135 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 17% [1] - Domestic sales during this period were 98,345 units, up by 19.6%, and exports totaled 93,790 units, increasing by 14.4% [1] - In October, 16 electric excavators were sold across various weight categories [1] Loader Sales - In October 2025, a total of 10,673 loaders were sold, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 27.7% [2] - Domestic sales comprised 5,372 units, with a growth of 33.2%, while exports were 5,301 units, increasing by 22.6% [2] - For the period from January to October 2025, total loader sales reached 104,412 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [2] - Domestic sales during this timeframe were 55,368 units, up by 21.8%, and exports totaled 49,044 units, with a growth of 9.69% [2] - In October, 2,707 electric loaders were sold across various weight categories [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin has achieved a significant milestone with the simultaneous damming of the Mengdigou and Yagen hydropower stations, marking the transition to the main construction phase of China's first integrated water-solar-wind energy base [1][11]. Group 1: Project Development - The Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin integrated energy base is focused on achieving a "zero-carbon" construction site by utilizing electric heavy trucks and excavators, promoting a green and low-carbon transformation in project construction [2][8]. - The project aims to establish a 100% renewable energy supply system, with a planned total installed capacity of 78 million kilowatts by 2035 across four project clusters [13][15]. - Currently, the base has approximately 21 million kilowatts of clean energy installed capacity and is contributing over 1.1 trillion kilowatt-hours of clean electricity [15]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - The construction site features 20 electric heavy trucks that operate quietly and efficiently, capable of transporting over 400 tons of materials per day [4][6]. - The Mengdigou hydropower station is implementing smart systems for comprehensive monitoring of project progress, quality, safety, and environmental information, which is expected to shorten the construction period by at least six months and save over 500 million yuan [10]. - The project is also exploring the integration of green hydrogen production and digital technologies, aiming to create a leading clean energy base in China and globally [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the advancements and comprehensive solutions offered by Zoomlion in the field of electric and intelligent mining machinery, showcased during the 2025 Global Carnival event for mining machinery. Group 1: Market Overview - The global mining machinery market is projected to reach $98 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to $135 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.12% [3]. - The shift towards high-end, green, and intelligent mining machinery is driven by the complex operational environments, cost considerations, and the trend of green development in the mining industry [3]. Group 2: Company Innovations - Zoomlion has introduced a range of electric excavators (60-1000 tons) and pure electric mining trucks (80-100 tons), along with energy replenishment equipment and auxiliary machinery [5]. - The company launched four new electric mining truck models, including the 80-ton ZT118EV and the 100-ton ZT165EV, as well as the world's first 100-ton hybrid wide-body truck, ZT160HEV, setting new benchmarks for safety, efficiency, and reliability [5]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The ZE650GEL electric excavator features an industry-leading "mobile power supply solution," eliminating reliance on fixed cables and grids, with capabilities for rapid charging and extended operation [5]. - The excavator can achieve "1-hour quick charging and 8-10 hours of sustained operation," enhancing deployment flexibility on mining sites [5]. Group 4: Comprehensive Solutions - Zoomlion has developed a complete power solution comprising pure electric, hybrid, and drag electric systems to meet various low-carbon and zero-carbon requirements for green mining [7]. - The company has implemented a fully automated operation process for loading, transporting, and unloading, transitioning from reactive maintenance to proactive warning systems [7]. Group 5: Service and Support - Zoomlion's global service network includes over 100 service and parts outlets, supported by AI and big data for predictive maintenance and remote management [7]. - The company aims to upgrade service from "passive response" to "proactive empowerment," maximizing equipment uptime and operational efficiency [7].