（天润乳业） 【天风农业】"牛市抱牛"，重视超级牛周期！1、牛板块：肉牛超级周期趋势明确，奶牛去化接近尾声，重视超级 牛周期！1）本周价格：犊牛&淘牛价格持续上涨，育肥牛价格稳定。 截至1月23日，育肥公牛出栏价格25.66元/kg，环比持平，同比+9.47%；犊牛价格33.09元/kg，环比+0.19%，同比 +37.08%；淘牛价格19.93元/kg，环比+0.26%，同比+22.80%（数据来源：钢联）。 （天润乳业） 【天风农业】"牛市抱牛"，重视超级牛周期！1、牛板块：肉牛超级周期趋势明确，奶牛去化接近尾声，重视超级 牛周期！1）本周价格：犊牛&淘牛价格持续上涨，育肥牛价格稳定。 截至1月23日，育肥公牛出栏价格25.66元/kg，环比持平，同比+9.47%；犊牛价格33.09元/kg，环比+0.19%，同比 +37.08%；淘牛价格19.93元/kg，环比+0.26%，同比+22.80%（数据来源：钢联）。 奶价仍处低位调整阶段，截至1月15日，生鲜乳价格3.03元/kg，环比+0.33%、同比-2.57%（数据来源：wind）。 2）肉牛方面，国内长亏损周期叠加深度亏损，驱动能繁母牛深度去化。 ...

消息面上，1月26日，优然牧业发布公告，配售事项已根据配售及认购协议的条款及条件于2026年1月20 日完成，配售代理按尽力基准成功向不少于六名承配人配售合共2.9925亿股配售股份，配售价为每股配 售股份3.92港元。 优然牧业(09858)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.05%，报4.58港元，成交额4549.89万港元。 于配售事项及先旧后新认购事项以及特别授权认购事项完成后，估计所得款项净额预期约为23.3亿港 元。约35%用于先进技术赋能及数字化转型，以提升营运效能；约55%用于偿还计息债务并优化资本结 构，为潜在收购或投资机会提供灵活性；及约10%用于补充营运资金并用作一般公司用途。 由于完成先旧后新认购事项的所有条件已达成，公司于2026年1月26日根据配售及认购协议的条款及条 件按每股先旧后新认购股份3.92港元向卖方配发及发行2.9925亿股先旧后新认购股份。净筹约11.58亿港 元。 ...

由于完成先旧后新认购事项的所有条件已达成，公司于2026年1月26日根据配售及认购协议的条款及条 件按每股先旧后新认购股份3.92港元向卖方配发及发行2.9925亿股先旧后新认购股份。净筹约11.58亿港 元。 于配售事项及先旧后新认购事项以及特别授权认购事项完成后，估计所得款项净额预期约为23.3亿港 元。约35%用于先进技术赋能及数字化转型，以提升营运效能；约55%用于偿还计息债务并优化资本结 构，为潜在收购或投资机会提供灵活性；及约10%用于补充营运资金并用作一般公司用途。 智通财经APP获悉，优然牧业(09858)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.05%，报4.58港元，成交额4549.89万港 元。 消息面上，1月26日，优然牧业发布公告，配售事项已根据配售及认购协议的条款及条件于2026年1月20 日完成，配售代理按尽力基准成功向不少于六名承配人配售合共2.9925亿股配售股份，配售价为每股配 售股份3.92港元。 ...

于配售事项及先旧后新认购事项以及特别授权认购事项完成后，估计所得款项净额预期约为23.3亿港 元。约35%用于先进技术赋能及数字化转型，以提升营运效能;约55%用于偿还计息债务并优化资本结 构，为潜在收购或投资机会提供灵活性;及约10%用于补充营运资金并用作一般公司用途。 由于完成先旧后新认购事项的所有条件已达成，公司于2026年1月26日根据配售及认购协议的条款及条 件按每股先旧后新认购股份3.92港元向卖方配发及发行2.9925亿股先旧后新认购股份。净筹约11.58亿港 元。 智通财经APP讯，优然牧业(09858)公布，配售事项已根据配售及认购协议的条款及条件于2026年1月20 日完成，配售代理按尽力基准成功向不少于六名承配人配售合共2.9925亿股配售股份，配售价为每股配 售股份3.92港元。 ...

| 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 普通股 | 股份類別 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) 09858 | 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 | | | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | 行股份（不包括庫存股 份）數目百分比 (註3) | | 庫存股份數目 | | | | | 於下列日期開始時的結存(註1) 2025年12月31日 | 3,892,727,833 | | | 0 | | | 3,892,727,833 | | 1). 配售/認購 - 涉及新股 | 299,250,000 | | 7.69 % | | HKD | 3.92 | | | 根據日期為2026年1月16日之配售及認購協議進行的先舊後新 ...

Core Viewpoint - YouRan Agriculture (09858) has successfully completed a placement of 299.25 million shares at a price of HKD 3.92 per share, raising approximately HKD 1.158 billion in net proceeds [1] Group 1: Placement and Subscription Details - The placement was completed on January 20, 2026, with shares allocated to no fewer than six subscribers [1] - Following the completion of the placement, the company will issue 299.25 million shares under the old and new subscription agreement at the same price of HKD 3.92 per share on January 26, 2026 [1] Group 2: Use of Proceeds - The estimated net proceeds from the placement and subscription are expected to be approximately HKD 2.33 billion [1] - About 35% of the proceeds will be used for advanced technology empowerment and digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency [1] - Approximately 55% will be allocated to repay interest-bearing debts and optimize the capital structure, providing flexibility for potential acquisitions or investment opportunities [1] - Around 10% will be used to supplement working capital and for general corporate purposes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, YouRan Agriculture (09858.HK), has entered into a placement and subscription agreement to issue approximately 299 million shares at a price of HKD 3.92 per share, which represents an 8.84% discount to the last closing price of HKD 4.30 [1][2]. Group 1: Placement and Subscription Agreement - The placement agent, Morgan Stanley and CITIC Securities, has agreed to facilitate the purchase of the placement shares by at least six subscribers [1]. - The estimated net proceeds from the placement are expected to be approximately HKD 11.59 billion [1]. - The placement shares represent about 7.69% of the company's existing issued share capital as of the announcement date [1][2]. Group 2: Special Authorization Subscription - The company has entered into a special authorization subscription agreement with the seller, which allows the seller to subscribe for approximately 299 million new shares at the same price of HKD 3.92 per share [2]. - The estimated net proceeds from the special authorization subscription are expected to be approximately HKD 11.72 billion [2]. - The number of special authorization subscription shares also represents about 7.69% of the company's existing issued share capital as of the announcement date [2]. Group 3: Completion of Transactions - The placement has been completed as of January 20, 2026, with the placement agent successfully placing the shares to independent third-party subscribers [2]. - Following the completion of the placement and special authorization subscription, the seller's shareholding in the company remains unchanged [3].

配售事項之配售代理 董 事 會 欣 然 宣 佈，配 售 事 項 已 根 據 配 售 及 認 購 協 議 的 條 款 及 條 件 於2026年1月20 日 完 成，配 售 代 理 按 盡 力 基 準 成 功 向 不 少 於 六 名 承 配 人 配 售 合 共299,250,000股 配 售 股 份，配 售 價 為 每 股 配 售 股 份3.92港 元。據 董 事 作 出 一 切 合 理 查 詢 後 所 深 知、 全 悉 及 確 信，承 配 人 及 其 最 終 實 益 擁 有 人 均 為 獨 立 第 三 方。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責， 對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全 部 或 任 何 部 分 內 容 而 產 生 或 因 倚 賴 該 等 內 容 而 引 致 之 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 本 公 告 僅 供 參 考，並 不 構 成 接 納、購 買 或 認 購 本 公 司 任 何 證 券 的 邀 請 或 要 約。 China Youran Dairy Group Limi ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly in the dairy sector, anticipating a recovery in raw milk prices by 2026 [2]. Core Insights - The current adjustment cycle in milk prices is nearing its end, with the previous cycle lasting approximately seven years, driven by over-expansion of dairy enterprises and weakened demand post-pandemic [4]. - Domestic dairy cow inventory is projected to decline to 6.3 million heads in 2024, marking a 4.55% year-on-year decrease, while raw milk production is expected to be 40.79 million tons, down 2.8% year-on-year [5]. - The report suggests that despite a slight increase in milk production due to improved yield per cow, the overall supply of raw milk is stabilizing and may slightly contract in the coming years [6]. - Demand for dairy products remains weak, with per capita consumption expected to decline to 12.6 kg in 2024, but there is potential for long-term growth as current consumption levels are significantly below global averages [7]. - The report highlights that the dairy industry is experiencing a shift towards higher-end products, with growth in segments like milk powder and cheese, indicating a diversification in consumer preferences [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Raw Milk Price Cycles - The report outlines the cyclical nature of raw milk prices, typically spanning six years, with the current cycle characterized by prolonged adjustments due to supply-demand imbalances [4][20]. - Historical analysis shows three significant U-shaped cycles in raw milk prices since 2008, with the latest cycle beginning in 2021 and marked by a decline in prices due to oversupply [23][30]. 2. Supply-Side Analysis - The supply of raw milk is influenced by factors such as dairy cow inventory, production efficiency, and feed costs, with the latter accounting for over 60% of total costs [32]. - The report notes a significant reduction in dairy cow inventory due to economic pressures, with a shift towards larger, more efficient dairy farms contributing to increased milk yields [41][43]. - The decline in imported dairy products is attributed to price discrepancies, with domestic raw milk becoming more competitive as international prices rise [55]. 3. Demand-Side Analysis - Demand for dairy products has been inconsistent, with per capita consumption fluctuating due to economic conditions and consumer behavior changes [63]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in dairy consumption, particularly in rural areas, as current levels remain low compared to global standards [7][63]. - The diversification of dairy products and the rise of high-end segments are seen as positive indicators for future demand growth [7]. 4. Future Price Trends - The report anticipates a recovery in raw milk prices by 2026, driven by declining cow inventories and a potential stabilization of supply [8]. - Short-term demand may see slight improvements, but long-term growth is expected to be modest, primarily driven by deep processing and import substitution [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the industry, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in demand during the peak season, leading to sustained strong prices for pork. It anticipates a new cycle of prosperity in the livestock industry driven by the resonance between meat and dairy sectors [3][4]. - The report suggests that major meat protein prices (pork, chicken, beef, eggs, and aquatic products) are expected to bottom out and rise in 2026. The efficiency differences among pig farming enterprises will be crucial in determining profitability levels for the year [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the meat chicken industry, after a prolonged downturn of 3-4 years, is likely to gradually emerge from its cyclical bottom due to improvements in demand [3][4]. - The beef and raw milk sectors are projected to reach a supply-demand balance after ongoing capacity reductions, marking a turning point for the cycle [3][4]. - The edible mushroom sector is expected to see significant improvements in industry structure after 2-3 years of capacity clearance, with early investments in the second growth curve beginning to yield results [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 0.4%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.6%. The top five gainers included Fujian Jinsen (15.7%), Hainan Rubber (15.5%), and Wancheng Group (14.3) [3][4]. - The report recommends focusing on growth opportunities and suggests stocks such as Muyuan Foods, Dekang Animal Husbandry, and Wen's Foodstuffs [3][4]. Livestock Sector - In the beef sector, prices for beef cattle, calves, and beef have seen slight increases, indicating the beginning of a long-term upward trend. The average price for fattening bulls was 25.66 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.25% [3][4]. - The report notes that the supply of beef cattle is expected to decrease, with a projected output of 51.33 million heads in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [3][4]. Swine Farming - The report indicates that the price of live pigs remains strong due to seasonal stocking demands, with the average price for external three-line pigs at 13.03 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.66% [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the price of weaned piglets, which reached an average of 352 CNY/head, up by 45 CNY/head week-on-week [3][4]. Poultry Farming - The white feather broiler market is characterized by an oversupply, leading to a decline in chick prices. The average price for white feather broiler chicks was 1.87 CNY/chick, down 28.6% week-on-week [3][4]. - The report suggests that the continued oversupply of white chickens will be a key theme in 2026, with a focus on the development and long-term value of leading enterprises [3][4].