大摩闭门会：汽车、工业、交运、房地产行业更新 260128 摘要 航空业发动机维修维护高峰期预计在 2026-2028 年，春秋航空已受影 响。春运期间票价和需求健康，预计春节期间机票不会大幅降价。国际 航线票价优于国内，但成本通胀和维修费用上升构成压力，低油价和利 用小时提升可部分抵消。 快递行业管理层预计 2026 年件量增长接近 10%，高于市场悲观预期。 头部企业如中通和圆通追求高于行业平均的增速，反内卷政策延续，利 好头部企业集中份额，优化成本结构，极兔和圆通积极拓展国际市场。 房地产市场二手房成交量改善，但主要受短期因素影响，对可持续性持 保留态度。预计 2026 年房地产政策延续温和态势，大力度刺激政策可 能性较低，高库存弱情绪下，房价或延续量价齐低态势，全国二手房价 预计继续下降。 华润万象 2026-2027 年增速放缓担忧过度，第三方商场扩张可支撑利 润增长。若利润增速 10%，2026 年股息率 5.2%，2027 年接近 6%， 股价仍有上涨空间，建议持续关注。 工业行业整体需求复苏，设备需求进入上升周期，与数据中心、储能或 机器人相关公司增长强劲。看好 AIDC 设备相关板块，受益于 ...

黑猫大数据中心联合黑猫投诉 【下载黑猫投诉客户端】平台发布《黑猫投诉2025年度物流领域投诉数 据报告》，通过投诉数据盘点2025年行业趋势、行业热点问题等，通过投诉数据变化情况回顾行业消费 趋势。 全年投诉量近22万件 2025 年黑猫投诉平台物流行业全年投诉量近 22 万件，随着行业业务规模持续扩大、电商消费带动物流 需求激增，投诉量较 2024 年同比上涨 5.52%。因年货节、618、双 11 等消费节点订单量大幅激增，导 致节点前后投诉量显著攀升；其余时间投诉量相对平稳。 物流投诉典型问题 物流投诉中的典型问题主要集中在三个方面，一是配送途中货物出现丢失、破损的情况，影响客户正常 的收货体验；二是客户明确提出送货上门的需求，物流方却未按要求履约，仅将货物放置于收货点，未 能满足客户的配送要求；三是物流配送存在延误问题，该情况在节假日期间尤为突出，给客户带来了诸 多不便。 丢件坏件投诉占比超三成 从投诉问题来看，丢件、坏件是最突出的痛点，占比约 35%；其次是邮件已到不配送、延误问题，占 比约 28%；售后服务欠缺的占比18%。此外，邮件签收问题、提供虚假信息、未履行保价承诺等问题也 较为常见。 物流 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that improvements in debt structure and declining interest rates are expected to enhance the profitability of J&T Express-W (01519), while ongoing share buybacks are likely to further boost earnings per share, benefiting all shareholders despite potential dilution effects. The rating is maintained at "Outperform" with a target price of HKD 13.6 [1] Group 1 - J&T Express plans to issue HKD 46.5 billion in convertible bonds with a maturity of 7 years, offering a yield of 0.375% upon conversion [1] - The primary purposes of the bond issuance include share buybacks, refinancing high-interest old debt, and expanding into new markets in the EU and the US [1] - Management has indicated that due to sufficient cash reserves, there may not be further financing plans in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that improvements in debt structure and declining interest rates are expected to enhance the profitability of J&T Express-W (01519), while ongoing share buybacks are likely to further boost earnings per share, benefiting all shareholders despite potential dilution effects [1] Group 1 - J&T Express plans to issue HKD 4.65 billion in convertible bonds with a maturity of 7 years, offering a yield of 0.375% upon conversion [1] - The primary purposes of the bond issuance include share buybacks, refinancing high-interest old debt, and expanding into new markets in the EU and the US [1] - Management has indicated that due to sufficient cash reserves, there may not be further financing plans in 2026 [1] Group 2 - Credit Lyonnais maintains a "Outperform" rating for J&T Express with a target price of HKD 13.6 [1]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the steady growth of the postal industry, with a total delivery volume of 2,165.1 billion pieces in 2025, marking an 11.8% year-on-year increase, and express delivery volume reaching 1,989.5 billion pieces, up 13.6% year-on-year [15][14] - The social service sector has shown a 4.78% increase in the last two trading weeks, ranking 8th among 31 industries, with expectations for continued growth in consumer spending driven by various policies [8][12] - The logistics sector is experiencing structural optimization, with the national postal bureau reporting robust growth in the industry, while the airline sector sees a slight decrease in average ticket prices compared to 2019 due to timing issues [15][14] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.85% to 14,316.64 [1] - The social service sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 5.97 percentage points, indicating strong relative performance [9][8] Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the successful first flight of a 500kg tilt-rotor drone, indicating advancements in the low-altitude economy and the potential for eVTOL applications [15][14] - The report notes a general decline in freight rates for major shipping routes due to geopolitical tensions affecting demand [15][14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong earnings growth certainty in the travel chain and related industries, such as Tongcheng Travel and Huangshan Tourism [12] - It also recommends monitoring opportunities in the express logistics sector, particularly for companies like SF Express and Jitu Express, as well as in the airline industry due to increased demand during the Spring Festival [17][12]

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 投资要点： hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 26 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 民航春运有望景气，快递格局分化延续 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2026 年 1 月 19 日-2026 年 1 月 25 日） 板块表现： 2）中通快递召开 2026 全国网络工作会议，强调"行稳致远"。1 月 20 日，中通快 递召开 2026 年全国网络工作会议。会议剖析当前中通面临的挑战和机遇，展望行业 未来发展，明确了中通作为行业龙头对维护行业健康高质量发展的责任定位，要求 全网调优降本练好内功，旗帜鲜明带头"反内卷"。董事长赖梅松要求中通全网思 想统一，步调一致，以 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Jitu Express plans to issue HKD 4.65 billion convertible bonds with a maturity of 7 years, aiming to improve its debt structure and expand into new markets in the EU and the US [1] - The primary purposes of the bond issuance include share buybacks, refinancing high-interest old debts, and market expansion [1] - The management indicated that due to sufficient cash reserves, there may not be further financing plans in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The issuance is expected to enhance the company's profitability due to improved debt structure and declining interest rates [1] - Continuous share buybacks are anticipated to further increase earnings per share, benefiting all shareholders despite potential dilution effects [1] - The rating agency maintains an "outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 13.6 [1]

Group 1 - Citi maintains a "Buy" rating on J&T Express-W (01519), believing it has strong growth momentum in Southeast Asia and emerging markets [1] - The target price for J&T Express is set at HKD 15 [1] - J&T Express plans to issue HKD 4.65 billion zero-coupon guaranteed convertible bonds, which Citi considers reasonable due to the attractive conversion premium and high interest rates on existing debt [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating on J&T Express-W (01519), believing it has strong growth momentum in Southeast Asia and emerging markets [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - J&T Express plans to issue HKD 4.65 billion zero-coupon guaranteed convertible bonds [1] - Citigroup considers the terms of the convertible bonds reasonable due to the attractive conversion premium, high interest rates on existing debt, and J&T's growth potential in global markets [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The company is expected to leverage its development potential in Southeast Asia and emerging markets, which is viewed positively by analysts [1] - The target price for J&T Express is set at HKD 15 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa released a report stating that J&T Express-W (01519) plans to issue HKD 4.65 billion zero-coupon guaranteed convertible bonds, with an initial conversion price of HKD 14.55 per B share, representing a premium of approximately 30.85% over the closing price on January 22 [1] Group 1 - J&T Express's East Asia and new market business shows steady mid-term growth, and any stock price pullback may provide a better buying opportunity [1] - The issuance of convertible bonds is expected to create value for shareholders due to lower financing costs, ongoing share buybacks, and business growth potential [1] - Some investors may cash out due to concerns over additional financing needs after a strong rebound in stock prices [1]