Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities highlights the benefits of the "anti-involution" policy in the international engineering sector, focusing on price elasticity and downstream profitability improvements as key drivers for investment opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: International Engineering Sector - The international engineering sector benefits from price elasticity, with rising expectations for resource prices, particularly coal. Companies like Northern International, which have significant coal business, are expected to see profit contributions of over 600 million in 2024 and potential profits of 770 million and 950 million in 2026 under neutral and optimistic scenarios respectively [1][3]. - Downstream industries such as steel and cement are expected to improve profitability due to anti-involution measures, which may lead to increased demand for upgrading production lines, benefiting specialized engineering companies like China National Materials and China Steel International [1][3]. Group 2: Traditional Low-Valued State-Owned Enterprises - For traditional low-valued state-owned enterprises, the focus should be on dividend capacity, price elasticity, and technological transformation. The market share of nine major state-owned construction enterprises increased to 59.89% in Q1 2025, indicating strong order acquisition capabilities [2]. - The anticipated rise in commodity prices is expected to enhance the performance of construction companies involved in resource businesses, with recommendations for companies like China Chemical and China Railway [2]. - The construction industry is projected to benefit from structural high prosperity in technology-driven infrastructure demands, with recommendations for companies like Tunnel Co. and attention to China State Construction International [2]. Group 3: Steel Structure Sector - The steel structure sector is divided into manufacturing and installation. Upstream supply-side reforms are expected to benefit steel prices, leading to improved profits for manufacturing companies like Honglu Steel Construction, with potential net profits reaching 347 yuan per ton in Q3 2022 [4]. - Installation companies, such as Jinggong Steel Structure, are expected to accelerate industry consolidation, transitioning towards smart, green, and prefabricated construction. The overseas orders for Jinggong Steel Structure increased by 94% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating improved profitability and cash flow [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the theme investment strategies in various sectors, particularly focusing on infrastructure and technology industries, including the "Belt and Road Initiative," domestic substitution, and specific projects like the Yalong River Hydropower Station [1][4][12]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Types of Theme Investments**: Theme investments can be categorized into four types: policy-driven, industry-specific, regional, and event-driven themes [2][4]. 2. **Impact of National Policies**: Major national policies, such as the "Belt and Road Initiative," have historically led to significant stock price increases, with examples showing companies like China Railway and China Communications Construction rising tenfold during the policy's implementation [4][6]. 3. **Industry-Specific Opportunities**: Environmental policies and carbon neutrality initiatives have created substantial investment opportunities in sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles, with companies like Jingwang Technology and Zhuosheng Microelectronics seeing significant stock price increases [5][4]. 4. **Catalyst Density**: The frequency of significant events or catalysts can enhance market momentum; for instance, the 2025 capital expenditure reports from major U.S. cloud service providers spurred growth in the optical module and PCB industries [9][1]. 5. **Investment Theme Evaluation**: When selecting investment themes, factors such as depth, breadth, density, freshness, recognizability, and spreadability must be considered to gauge market interest and potential returns [11][10]. 6. **Stock Selection Criteria**: The relevance of stocks to chosen themes is crucial; for example, companies involved in high-speed rail projects performed well during the "Belt and Road Initiative" due to their direct involvement in railway construction [12][14]. 7. **Commercial Model and Competitive Advantage**: Evaluating a company's business model and competitive edge is essential, focusing on market acceptance and the contribution of new business segments to overall profits [15][3]. 8. **Market Dynamics and Timing**: Identifying the right entry and exit points in theme investments is critical, with market cycles often influenced by broader industry trends and technological advancements [16][17]. 9. **AI Application Differences**: The commercial models for AI applications differ significantly between the U.S. and China, with the former showing stronger market performance due to a SaaS model, while the latter faces challenges in monetization [18]. 10. **Development Stages of Industry Chains**: The development of industry chains can be categorized into stages, with certain technologies like liquid cooling and humanoid robots still in early development phases, while others like optical modules have progressed significantly [19][20]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Investment Timing and Market Penetration**: Understanding the penetration points of key technologies can signal potential investment opportunities, as seen in the transition from multi-crystalline to mono-crystalline silicon in the solar industry [21]. - **Emerging Technologies**: The potential for large-scale application of new technologies hinges on several factors, including policy support, technological maturity, cost control, and the emergence of blockbuster products [20].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy is transitioning from policy definition to implementation, with a focus on shifting from "price competition" to "value competition" in the construction industry [14][15] - The construction sector is expected to benefit from improved cash flow and report quality due to the optimization of supply and demand dynamics, which will enhance the dividend capacity of state-owned enterprises [15][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of technology transformation and the development of non-traditional construction businesses, such as smart cities and smart construction, as key paths for traditional construction companies [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Traditional Low-Valuation State-Owned Enterprises - The market share of nine major state-owned construction enterprises has increased from 30.45% in 2016 to 48.9% in 2024, with a further rise to 59.89% in Q1 2025, indicating strong order acquisition capabilities [15][21] - The report highlights three dimensions for understanding the implications of "anti-involution": dividend capacity, price elasticity, and technology transformation [2][14] - Companies with strong dividend capabilities, such as China State Construction and Sichuan Road and Bridge, are recommended [2][24] 2. International Engineering Sector - The international engineering sector is expected to benefit from price elasticity due to rising expectations for resource prices, particularly in coal [3][29] - The report suggests that improvements in downstream profitability and high-quality development in industries like steel and cement will drive demand for engineering companies [3][29] 3. Steel Structure Sector - The steel structure sector is divided into manufacturing and installation, with rising steel prices benefiting manufacturing companies like Honglu Steel Construction [4][29] - The transition towards intelligent and green construction is expected to enhance the competitive advantages of leading companies in the steel structure installation segment [4][29] - Companies like Jianghe Group and Jinggong Steel Construction are highlighted for their significant growth in overseas orders [4][29] 4. Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks based on their performance and valuation metrics, including China State Construction, China Chemical, and Honglu Steel Construction, all of which have favorable P/E ratios and dividend yields [9][25][27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - In the first seven months of the year, narrow infrastructure investment reached 10.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, while broad infrastructure investment was 14.3 trillion yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year [2][7] - In July, narrow infrastructure investment saw a significant decline of 5.2%, marking the first monthly decrease since 2022, indicating increased pressure on infrastructure [12] - Road investment experienced a notable downturn in July, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, while railway investment continued to show positive trends with a growth rate of 12.4% [12] - Actual infrastructure demand appears weak, with cement production in July down 5.3% year-on-year, reflecting pressure on both housing and traditional infrastructure [12] - The government has accelerated the issuance of special bonds, with a total of 28,369 billion yuan issued this year, indicating a focus on stabilizing growth through fiscal measures and major projects [12] Summary by Sections Investment Performance - Narrow infrastructure investment decreased by 5.2% in July, while broad infrastructure investment fell by 1.4% [12] - Cumulative narrow infrastructure investment for the first seven months was 10.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [12] Sector Analysis - Road investment saw a significant decline, while railway investment maintained a positive trajectory [12] - Water conservancy investment showed a decrease of 4% in July, but the decline was less severe than in previous months [12] Demand and Growth Strategies - Cement production and sales data suggest a decline in actual infrastructure demand, despite a smaller decrease in cement output compared to investment figures [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of fiscal measures and major projects to stabilize growth, with a focus on significant infrastructure projects [12]

Group 1 - The core project is the Zhizhen Energy 1 million kW photovoltaic hydrogen production and ammonia synthesis integrated project in Yili Prefecture, Xinjiang, with a total construction area of 122,381.3 square meters [1] - The project includes 64 sets of 1000Nm³/h electrolysis hydrogen production devices, 20 sets of 2000Nm³ hydrogen storage devices, and a 170,000 tons/year ammonia synthesis device [1] - The winning bid for the project was awarded to China Railway Tunnel Group with a bid price of 261,848.2124 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The total estimated contract amount for the bidding project is 960 million yuan, with a total construction period of 790 calendar days [2] - The project includes construction drawing design, engineering construction, and warranty work during the defect liability period [2] Group 3 - The winning bid for the liquid-cooled ultra-fast charging low-carbon comprehensive energy station project (Phase I) was awarded to China Railway 14th Bureau Group with a bid price of 95,904 million yuan [4] - The project aims to accelerate the construction of charging infrastructure for new energy vehicles, with a total investment of 82 million yuan for 200 ultra-fast charging stations in Hubei and Hunan [4] Group 4 - The Gansu Zhangye City 200MW/800MWh independent energy storage project has a total investment of 818 million yuan, with the winning bid announced for China Railway Construction Bridge Engineering Group [5] - The project includes a 200MW/800MWh energy storage power station and a 330kV/35kV/10kV booster substation [5] Group 5 - The total investment for the International Cooperation Education Sample Area Science and Technology Innovation Hub project is estimated at 157,543.65 million yuan, with a construction scale of approximately 1,277 meters for the road [8] - The project includes tunnel construction, road engineering, and various auxiliary facilities [8] Group 6 - The Three Gorges Waterway New Channel Project has a static total investment of approximately 766 billion yuan, with a total construction period of 100 months [11] - The project includes the construction of a water supply system with a design scale of 76,500 m³/d [10][11] Group 7 - The project for the renovation of old residential areas in Shenyang's Shenbei New District involves the renovation of infrastructure for 12 old residential areas, impacting 4,904 households [21][22] - The renovation includes road reconstruction, water supply, drainage, heating pipeline updates, and the addition of public service facilities [22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" and the rating is maintained [6]. Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment growth is expected to remain stable throughout the year, supported by the issuance of special bonds and the commencement of major strategic projects [3][19]. - The construction industry is anticipated to improve due to ongoing urban renewal and significant project launches, with a focus on low-valuation high-dividend stocks [12][14]. - The demand for AI applications is driving exponential growth in computing power, leading to increased investment in data centers and related infrastructure [20]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - From January to July, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 28.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. Excluding real estate investment, the growth rate was 5.3% [1][17]. - Narrow infrastructure investment grew by 3.2% year-on-year, contributing 43.0% to total investment growth, which is an increase of 6.0 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1][17]. Market Performance - The construction industry experienced a decline of 0.51%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index [21]. - The international engineering sector showed strong performance with a 4.25% increase [21]. Company Announcements - Significant contracts were awarded, including a 69.94 billion yuan contract for a water supply expansion project in South Africa by China Power Construction [32]. - China Metallurgical Group reported a new contract amount of 611.34 billion yuan for the first seven months of 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% [33]. Key Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies include China Communications Construction, China Railway Construction, and Xinjiang Communications Construction, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing infrastructure projects [3][19][12]. - The report suggests focusing on low-valuation construction state-owned enterprises and companies involved in infrastructure design and international engineering services [12][13].

Group 1 - The key clients of Sichuan Shengshi Steel Union International Trade Co., Ltd. include major state-owned enterprises directly supervised by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, covering various sectors such as construction, infrastructure, and energy engineering [1] Group 2 - The core list of top ten central enterprise construction companies includes China State Construction Engineering Corporation, which has a business focus on housing construction (over 50% of global super high-rise buildings) and infrastructure [4] - China Railway Group Limited specializes in railway engineering, accounting for 66% of the national railway mileage, with a significant increase of 51.6% in overseas business [4] - China Railway Construction Corporation is responsible for 52% of the national high-speed rail mileage and has established construction standards for high-speed rail in China [4] Group 3 - China Communications Construction Company focuses on port channels and cross-sea bridges, with a new contract amount of 9910.54 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [5] - China Power Construction Group is a leader in hydropower, with a global market share exceeding 50% in overseas hydropower [5] - China Energy Engineering Group is innovating in traditional energy upgrades and has seen a growth rate of over 30% in new energy contracts [5] Group 4 - China Metallurgical Group Corporation leads the global market share in metallurgical engineering and is advancing hydrogen metallurgy technology for low-carbon transformation [5] - China Chemical Engineering Group dominates 70% of domestic petrochemical projects and has achieved a 12.3% growth in fine chemical contracts [5] - China National Nuclear Corporation is responsible for all domestic nuclear power units and plays a special role in national defense engineering and nuclear emergency support [5] - China Aneng Construction Group specializes in water conservancy and emergency rescue tasks [6]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The real estate sector is characterized as a "three low" industry (low price-to-book ratio, low positioning, low attention), suggesting that the valuation gap will eventually close [3][5] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing significant challenges, with broad infrastructure investment growth declining by 1.9% year-on-year in July 2025, marking the first negative growth in two years [6][9] - The construction investment growth rate in July 2025 was negative 5.1%, indicating a severe decline in local government-funded projects and highlighting fiscal difficulties [6][9] Key Points and Arguments - Real estate stocks are not to be viewed pessimistically; the market is in a phase of orderly expansion, and the sector's win rate is high due to its low valuation metrics [3][5] - In July 2025, real estate investment fell by 17.1%, while manufacturing investment decreased by 0.3%, both showing significant declines and marking a critical turning point [11] - The cash flow situation in the real estate market has improved compared to last year, with financing costs and completion rates showing strength, suggesting potential recovery in construction data in the second half of the year [2] - The introduction of special bonds and government debt in July has significantly increased, aiding in resolving real estate debt issues and enhancing macroeconomic stability [7] Notable Companies and Their Performance - Companies like Vanke, JinDi, Longfor, and New Town are identified as having high elasticity due to improved competitive dynamics [8] - Service-oriented companies such as Wanwu Cloud, China Resources Mixc, and China Overseas Property are also highlighted for their dividend performance in the mid-year reports [8] - Recommended companies in the consumer building materials sector include Oriental Yuhong and Henkel Group, which are expected to perform well due to improved market conditions [19] Risks and Future Outlook - The upcoming mid-year reports for construction companies are anticipated to be risky, with potential for lower-than-expected performance due to increased receivables and declining revenues [13][16] - Despite short-term risks, there is potential for a rebound in the fourth quarter, particularly for companies with mineral resource attributes, such as China Metallurgical Group and China Railway [14] - The cement industry is projected to face a demand decline of 4.5% for the year, with July's demand down by 5.6% [17] Additional Insights - The consumer building materials sector is showing signs of recovery, with improved fundamentals and reduced price wars, which may lead to enhanced profitability [18] - The western region's infrastructure projects are expected to significantly impact the building materials industry, with strong demand and funding availability [24] - Investors are advised to adjust their positions cautiously in anticipation of potential volatility following the mid-year report disclosures [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and decoration industry [1] Core Views - The construction and decoration sector has shown a decline of 0.51% during the week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index, which increased by 2.37% and 2.95% respectively, resulting in excess returns of -2.88% and -3.46% [1][20] - Infrastructure investment from January to July has increased by 3.2% year-on-year, but this represents a slowdown of 1.4 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, influenced by fiscal front-loading and adverse weather conditions in July [2][16] - The report highlights that while real estate investment, sales, new starts, and completed areas have all seen significant declines, there is potential for recovery in infrastructure projects, particularly in regions like Xinjiang, Tibet, and Sichuan-Chongqing [3][12] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The construction and decoration industry is rated as "Overweight" [1] Industry Dynamics Tracking - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that external demand performed better than expected in July, while internal demand showed significant pressure, with retail and investment underperforming [2][16] - Infrastructure investment growth has been primarily driven by railway investments, which increased by 5.9% year-on-year from January to July, while other sectors like road transport and public facilities saw a slowdown [3][12] - The report suggests that the central government's fiscal support could accelerate the implementation of key projects, with a focus on major infrastructure developments [3][12] Recent Market Performance - The construction and decoration sector's performance has been lackluster, with a weekly decline of 0.51%, contrasting with the positive performance of broader market indices [1][20] - Specific companies such as Shanghai Port Bay and Beautiful Ecology have shown notable gains, while others like ST Zhongzhuang have lagged behind [20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a weak overall investment environment, with infrastructure investment under pressure. However, regional investments may gain flexibility as national strategic layouts deepen [2][3]. - Key statistics show that from January to July 2025, national fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment rose by 6.2%. In contrast, real estate investment decreased by 12.0% [10][12]. - Infrastructure investment (including all categories) grew by 7.3% year-on-year, although this represents a slowdown compared to previous months [10][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The construction industry experienced a weekly decline of 0.51%, underperforming against major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (+1.70%) and the Shenzhen Component Index (+4.55%) [3][5]. - The best-performing sub-industries included international engineering (+4.36%), private infrastructure (+1.83%), and professional engineering (+0.81%) [5][8]. 2. Key Company Developments - China Power Construction signed a contract for the South Africa Mokolo-Crocodile River (West) water supply expansion project, valued at approximately 6.994 billion yuan, representing 1.10% of its 2024 revenue [13]. - China Metallurgical Group reported new contracts worth 611.34 billion yuan from January to July 2025, a decrease of 18.5% year-on-year, while overseas contracts increased by 38.0% [13][14]. 3. Investment Analysis - The report recommends low-valuation state-owned enterprises such as China Chemical, China Railway, and China Railway Construction, while also highlighting private companies like Zhi Te New Materials and Honglu Steel Structure as potential investment opportunities [2][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring new contract signings by key companies to gauge future performance [14].