本月美联储如期降息25BP，并在点阵图中给出年内剩余两次议息会议连续降息2次的预期。但值得关注 的是，鲍威尔在会后记者问答中指出9月降息是一次"风险管理式"降息。我们认为是本次会议中最重要 的表述之一。 联储继续按兵不动，"相机抉择"的核心要素基本取决于关税的影响 利率区间方面，美联储如期降息25BP符合会前市场定价，联邦基金目标利率调整至4. 00%—4. 25%区 间；相较7月，联储在会议声明中对就业的关注度明显提升，认为就业市场的下行风险增加（强调 judges that downside risks to employment have risen.）。缩表政策方面，本月按兵不动，联储持有国债的 缩表速度为50亿美元；持有MBS的缩表速度为350亿美元。值得关注的是，米兰已在本次议息会议加入 投票，并投票支持本月降息50BP。 李超/文 结合记者问答来看，鲍威尔对未来政策还给出了以下指引： 一是对于就业，认为劳动力市场的下行风险提升。延续8月JacksonHole以来的表态，但考虑到经济预测 中失业率预测并未上行，联储对就业市场的评估可能仍为"供需两弱"。 二是对于通胀，仍然认为关税带来的通胀影响偏向 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points (BP) and indicated the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year[1] - Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, suggesting a more hawkish stance and uncertainty about future rate cuts[1][3] - The dot plot indicates two potential rate cuts remaining this year, but the actual implementation may be uncertain[6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 was slightly revised up from 1.4% to 1.6%, driven by investment rather than consumption[3][17] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 4.5% for 2025, indicating a weak supply-demand balance in the labor market[4][17] - The year-end PCE inflation forecast is maintained at 3.0%, with core PCE inflation also stable[6][17] Group 3: Market Implications - The current economic transition from consumption to investment may lead to structural changes in employment data, with a potential decline in non-farm employment central tendency[7] - The tightening liquidity in the dollar system may prompt the Fed to end balance sheet reduction earlier than expected, with a potential threshold reached by Q4[8][9] - The outlook for major assets suggests a bullish trend for both the RMB and the USD index, with expectations of continued appreciation for the RMB against the USD[10]

Group 1: Core Concept - The article discusses Trump's "American-style nationalization" policies, reflecting a significant shift in economic governance driven by his real estate developer mindset [3][4][13]. Group 2: Real Estate Developer Mindset - Trump's background as a real estate developer influences his governance approach, viewing everything as a negotiable asset and prioritizing immediate returns [4][7]. - The strategy includes converting subsidies into equity, treating key companies as "premium assets," and operating national strategies like business projects [4][7]. Group 3: National and Economic Security - The Trump administration emphasizes the importance of controlling strategic industries like semiconductors and rare earths to ensure national security [5]. - By acquiring stakes in companies like MP Materials, the government aims to reduce reliance on foreign sources, particularly China, and enhance supply chain security [5]. Group 4: Industrial Policy Reconstruction - Trump's approach represents a reaction against decades of neoliberal economic policies, seeking to bind companies more closely to government strategic goals through equity stakes rather than traditional subsidies [6][10]. - This shift marks a transition of the government from a "subsidizer" to a "strategic investor," emphasizing practical returns and national interests [7]. Group 5: Response to Chinese Competition - The administration's strategies include adopting elements of the "Chinese model" to maintain U.S. advantages in key technology sectors [8]. - By forming a "national team" and investing in critical companies, the government aims to consolidate resources for competitive advantage against China [8]. Group 6: Political Pragmatism - The policies are also driven by domestic political considerations, targeting key industries in swing states to secure voter support ahead of elections [9]. Group 7: Fiscal Pressures - The U.S. federal debt exceeding $37 trillion and increasing fiscal pressures motivate the shift towards equity-based funding, potentially transforming subsidies into assets [10]. Group 8: Controversies and Challenges - Trump's policies face criticism for undermining free market principles, creating conflicts of interest, and raising legal concerns regarding the use of subsidy funds [11][12]. - The approach may intensify global competition in industrial policy and national capitalism trends [12]. Group 9: Shift Towards National Capitalism - The combination of Trump's "America First" ideology and real estate mindset may lead the U.S. towards a "national capitalism" model, where the government plays a dominant role in the economy [13][14]. - This governance style raises questions about the future direction of the U.S. economic system, contrasting sharply with traditional free market ideals [14].

如何看待海外债市异动和美国经济"新常态"？ 20250914 摘要 全球财政可持续性担忧加剧，多国政策调整引发市场波动。英国工党上 台后财政紧缩受阻，日本反对党主张财政宽松和降低消费税，这些因素 共同推动国债利率上行，增加了市场的不确定性。 美国就业数据下修，但未显示衰退信号。劳动力市场压力指数（LMSI） 显示，触发衰退规则的州数量仍远低于警戒线。美国经济核心动能已转 为投资驱动，信息技术和软件设备投资对 GDP 贡献超过消费。 美国政府推行国家资本主义，主导企业投资，加速制造业回流。通过增 持民营企业股权和提供补贴，美国在芯片、稀土、军工等领域推动大规 模投资，以维持经济增长。 欧洲再武装计划初期提振经济，但政治叙事变化导致长期需求受限。在 全球宏观环境变化和美欧贸易协定影响下，欧洲吸引外资难度增加，国 债供给依赖内部消化，放大了利率波动。 日本赢得国会选举后，计划削减消费税和实施宽财政政策，财政压力增 加。同时，与美国签订贸易协定，承诺巨额投资并开放市场，加剧了经 济负担。 Q&A 如何理解近期欧债收益率快速上行的动因？ 近期法国、英国和日本的 30 年国债利率大幅度走高，主要原因在于国内财政 纪律约束 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent attempts by major economies in Europe and Japan to maintain fiscal discipline have failed, leading to a decline in international capital confidence towards these regions, particularly due to unfavorable trade negotiations with the U.S. [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions in Europe and Japan - The yield on France's 30-year government bonds rose from 4.16% on August 1 to 4.45% on September 1, with a widening gap of 10 basis points compared to 10-year bonds, primarily due to the government's controversial fiscal measures [2] - The yield on the UK's 30-year bonds increased from 5.35% to 5.64% in the same period, with a widening gap of 9 basis points, driven by economic slowdown and internal pressures on the Labour Party [2] - Japan's 30-year bond yield rose from 3.11% to 3.23%, with a 6 basis point widening, influenced by political instability following the ruling coalition's failure in the Senate elections [2] Group 2: U.S. Economic Dynamics - U.S. long-term bond yields are influenced by different factors compared to Europe and Japan, including concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and recent weak employment data [3] - The U.S. economy is transitioning to an investment-driven model, with private non-residential investment contributing significantly to GDP growth, indicating a shift in economic momentum [7] - The employment impact of investment is lower than that of consumption, suggesting potential structural changes in employment data as the economy evolves [8] Group 3: Trade Negotiations and International Capital - Unfavorable outcomes from trade negotiations have weakened international capital confidence in Europe and Japan, with the U.S. gaining a more advantageous position [5][6] - The U.S. has successfully negotiated significant investment commitments from major economies, reducing trade policy uncertainty and enhancing its economic outlook [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain resilience, supported by increased capital expenditures and foreign investment commitments, while the dollar and Nasdaq are projected to perform well [11] - The Chinese yuan may appreciate against the dollar, with both currencies potentially experiencing a "dual bull" scenario as the yuan returns to a neutral position [11]

Group 1: Political Investigation of Lisa Cook - The investigation into Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, the first Black woman in this role, is focused on potential mortgage fraud related to her loan application, where she allegedly misrepresented the use of an investment property as a primary residence to secure better loan terms [1][2] - The investigation is perceived as politically motivated, driven by Bill Pulte, the Trump-appointed head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, who has publicly called for Cook's dismissal, despite the President lacking the authority to remove Federal Reserve members [1][2] Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - The situation highlights the risks of political interference in the financial system, with Trump's camp attempting to exert influence over the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, while establishment figures like Cook defend the independence of the institution [2][4] - Regardless of the outcome of the investigation, the political motivations behind it raise concerns about the safety of central bank officials' positions being tied to political affiliations, which could undermine market confidence in monetary policy independence [4] Group 3: Economic Warnings from Ray Dalio - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns of an impending economic crisis in the U.S. and Western economies, likening the situation to the Great Depression and the stagflation of the 1970s, based on his "big debt cycle" theory [5][7] - Dalio's analysis indicates that the U.S. government faces a significant debt burden, with approximately $1 trillion allocated for debt repayment out of an annual revenue of about $5 trillion, leading to a cycle of borrowing to pay off existing debts [7][9] Group 4: Societal and Economic Consequences - Dalio emphasizes the social crises stemming from economic inequality and the disconnect between asset bubbles and average incomes, which could fuel populism and weaken democratic institutions, creating a vicious cycle of debt and crisis [9][13] - He predicts that the U.S. is approximately three years away from a potential debt crisis, with various policy options available to the government, each carrying substantial risks, including social unrest from tax increases and inflation from monetary expansion [9][13]

Group 1 - Ray Dalio predicts that the U.S. may face a debt crisis in about three years due to excessive spending over the years [3][4] - Current U.S. government debt servicing costs are approximately $1 trillion annually, with total debt rollover needs around $9 trillion, leading to significant budget deficits [3][4] - The federal government is expected to spend about $7 trillion next year while generating only $5 trillion in revenue, necessitating the issuance of $2 trillion in new debt [3][4] Group 2 - Dalio warns that if policymakers do not change their approach, both debt repayment issues and supply-demand problems for debt will arise simultaneously [4] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are heightened following President Trump's actions to dismiss a Fed governor and threaten the Fed chair [4][5] - If the Fed is politically weakened, it could lead to a decline in the value of U.S. debt and the dollar, undermining their effectiveness as stores of wealth [4][5] Group 3 - International investors are reducing their holdings of U.S. debt due to geopolitical concerns and are turning to gold as an alternative [6] - The rise in gold and cryptocurrency prices is attributed to the deteriorating debt situation of the U.S. and other reserve currency governments [6][7] - Increased supply of dollars and/or decreased demand may make cryptocurrencies more attractive as alternative currencies [7] Group 4 - Dalio characterizes the U.S. government's intervention in the chip industry as an early sign of state capitalism, reflecting broader economic cycles [7] - The widening gap between wealth and values is contributing to the rise of populism, which poses challenges to democratic processes [7] - The outcome of the technology and economic competition among nations is seen as critical to geopolitical and potentially military dominance [7]

Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - Ray Dalio predicts that the U.S. may face a debt crisis in about three years due to excessive spending over the years [4] - The current annual interest payment on U.S. debt is approximately $1 trillion, with total debt rollover requirements around $9 trillion, which pressures other expenditures [7] - The federal government is expected to spend about $7 trillion next year while generating only about $5 trillion in revenue, necessitating the issuance of $2 trillion in new debt [7][8] Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence have been raised following President Trump's actions to dismiss a Fed governor and threaten the Fed Chair [11] - Dalio warns that if the Fed is politically weakened, it could lead to a decline in the value of U.S. debt and the dollar, undermining their effectiveness as stores of wealth [11] - He highlights that international investors are reducing their holdings of U.S. debt and turning to gold due to geopolitical concerns [12] Group 3: Government Intervention in Industries - The U.S. government's recent agreement with Intel to acquire a stake using unspent subsidy funds is seen as a sign of early-stage national capitalism [15] - Dalio notes that widening wealth and value gaps are leading to rising populism and unresolvable divisions between political factions [15] - He emphasizes the geopolitical implications, stating that the country that wins the technology and economic war will also win the more significant geopolitical and possibly military conflicts [15]

Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - The U.S. may face a debt crisis in approximately three years due to excessive spending over the years [1][3] - Current government debt servicing costs are around $1 trillion annually, with total debt rollover needs at about $9 trillion, squeezing other expenditures [3] - The federal government is projected to spend about $7 trillion next year while generating only $5 trillion in revenue, necessitating the issuance of $2 trillion in new debt [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Concerns are rising regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve following political pressures, including threats to dismiss its chairman [4] - If the Federal Reserve is perceived as politically weakened, it could lead to a decline in the value of U.S. debt and the dollar [4] - The Fed faces a tough choice between allowing interest rates to rise, which could trigger a debt default crisis, or printing money to buy debt, both of which could harm the dollar [4] Group 3: Investment Trends - International investors are reducing their holdings in U.S. debt due to geopolitical concerns and are shifting towards gold [5] - The rise in gold and cryptocurrency prices is attributed to the deteriorating debt situation of the dollar and other reserve currencies, threatening their attractiveness as stores of wealth [6] - An increase in the supply of dollars or a decrease in demand could make cryptocurrencies an appealing alternative currency [7] Group 4: Government Intervention in Industries - The U.S. government's intervention in key industries, such as the recent agreement with Intel, is seen as an early sign of national capitalism [8] - The widening gap between wealth and values is contributing to the rise of populism, creating irreconcilable divisions that cannot be resolved through democratic processes [8] - The current geopolitical context suggests that the nation that wins the technology and economic war will also win more significant geopolitical and potentially military conflicts [8]

特朗普政府正通过多种方式强化国家在企业决策中的存在感，突破以往共和党强调的自由市场原则，逐 渐形成一种具有国家资本主义特征的干预逻辑。 美国总统特朗普近日宣布，政府将斥资约89亿美元收购英特尔约10%的股份，这是拜登时期《芯片与科 学法案》资金首次以股权而非补贴形式注入私营企业。 专家认为，人工智能（AI）数据中心因其战略重要性和对政府的依赖性，可能成为特朗普政府"国家干 预主义"的下一个目标。 特朗普正在以前所未有的方式对美国企业施加影响，并声称这些做法将强化美国工业。但他的做法也带 来了新的风险，可能会分流他原本想要扶持的国内产业资本——从半导体到制药业。 干预私企 收购英特尔股份被特朗普团队明确为"更多案例的开端"。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特和商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克相继暗示，未来可能会在其他企业中复制这一 做法。《时代》周刊在近期的一篇评论中指出，特朗普总统明目张胆地要把美国久负盛名的资本主义制 度转变为国家控制的经济，这让商界领袖们感到震惊。这一表述凸显出特朗普政府正在通过一系列举 措，强化对私营企业的干预。 事实上，英特尔并非唯一受到政府干预的企业，类似的模式在特朗普的过往执政中已多次出现。 今 ...