东兴证券发布研报称，7月全国快递服务企业业务完成量164.0亿件，同比增长15.0%。分类型看，同城 件业务量同比增长8.8%，异地件增长16.1%。价格方面，7月行业单票价格环比6月略降，同比降幅缩窄 至5.3%。申通、韵达与圆通7月单票收入同比降幅分别为1.5%、3.5%和7.1%。7月以来国家邮政局加强 了反内卷的力度并强调行业自律，或有助于后续价格竞争的缓和，预计后续各地还会继续跟进反内卷的 相关政策，建议重点关注服务品质领先的行业龙头中通快递-W(02057)和圆通速递（600233） (600233.SH)。 东兴证券主要观点如下： 件量增速继续放缓，各企业增速分化 7月全国快递服务企业业务完成量164.0亿件，同比增长15.0%。分类型看，同城件业务量同比增长 8.8%，异地件增长16.1%。行业件量增速3月以来缓慢下行，与去年同期基数较高有一定关系，也与以 价换量模式边际效益递减有关。与6月类似，7月上市快递公司件量增速分化依旧明显。其中顺丰增速显 著领先行业均值，4月以来维持了30%以上的高增长。通达系快递中，圆通增速高于行业均值，申通及 韵达则低于行业均值。 圆通单票收入继续下压，申通韵达 ...

招银国际发布研报称，次季中通快递-W(02057)的快递量同比增长16.5%，招银国际仍认为未来6至12个 月平均单价或有惊喜，可能成为股价催化剂。该行将中通2025至2027年年盈利预测微调1%至2%，目标 价从174港元上调至187港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery sector is currently undervalued, with continuous growth in the e-commerce market and new demands emerging from lower-tier markets and reverse logistics, indicating strong resilience in industry demand [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The express delivery industry remains robust, with July 2025 revenues reaching 120.64 billion yuan and business volume at 16.40 billion pieces, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.9% and 15.1% respectively [1] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative express delivery revenue was 839.42 billion yuan, up 9.9% year-on-year, while the cumulative business volume reached 112.05 billion pieces, increasing by 18.7% [1] - SF Express leads the industry with July 2025 revenue of 18.657 billion yuan and business volume of 1.377 billion pieces, and from January to July 2025, it achieved a market share increase of 0.5 percentage points [1] Group 2: Demand and Pricing Dynamics - The express delivery sector benefits from strong demand resilience, driven by trends such as smaller package sizes, increasing reverse logistics, and the advantages of lower-tier markets, with industry volume growth significantly outpacing retail sales growth [2] - The trend towards lighter and smaller packages, along with intensified price competition, has impacted the average revenue per package, leading to a more competitive pricing environment [2] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The State Post Bureau's emphasis on "anti-involution" aims to foster healthy price competition within the express delivery industry, reducing the likelihood of a return to the severe price wars seen in 2020 [3] - As price increases are gradually implemented across various regions, the profitability per package for express delivery companies is expected to improve, enhancing the market position of leading firms [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the national express delivery service volume reached 16.4 billion pieces in July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.0%. However, the growth rate is gradually declining, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and diminishing returns from the price-for-volume strategy [3][11]. - There is a notable divergence in growth rates among companies, with SF Express leading the industry with over 30% growth since April. In contrast, YTO Express shows growth above the industry average, while Shentong and Yunda are below it [4][11]. - The report discusses the impact of recent anti-involution policies aimed at curbing excessive competition and price wars, which may lead to a stabilization of prices in the industry [5][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In July, the express delivery service volume was 16.4 billion pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 15.0%. The growth in same-city deliveries was 8.8%, while intercity deliveries grew by 16.1%. The overall growth rate has been slowly declining since March due to high previous year comparisons and diminishing returns from aggressive pricing strategies [3][14]. 2. Company Performance - SF Express has maintained a significant growth rate of over 30% since April, while YTO Express has outperformed the industry average. Shentong and Yunda have shown lower growth rates compared to the industry average [4][21]. - The average revenue per piece for the industry has slightly decreased, with YTO, Shentong, and Yunda experiencing year-on-year declines of 7.1%, 1.5%, and 3.5% respectively. Yunda's revenue decline has slowed, indicating limited room for further price reductions, while YTO's decline continues to widen [5][35]. 3. Pricing Dynamics - The report notes a slight decrease in the average price per piece in July, with a year-on-year decline of 5.3%. The pricing pressure from YTO on Shentong and Yunda has contributed to their slower growth rates [33][37]. - Recent anti-involution measures have been implemented to stabilize pricing, including regulatory actions against below-cost pricing and promoting industry self-discipline [12][49]. 4. Market Structure - The report indicates that the industry concentration ratio (CR8) was 86.9 in July, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.7, while remaining stable compared to the previous month. The market share of the four listed companies reached 50.6%, slightly up from 50.0% year-on-year [42][43]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing price competition is forcing companies to focus on service quality and transition towards higher-value offerings. The emphasis on service quality is expected to become a key trend in the industry as companies adapt to changing market dynamics [48].

大和发布研报称，中通快递-W(02057)管理层对于快递持续涨价仍感到乐观，相信在推行反内卷政策 后，行业价格可逐步复苏。相信行业价格趋势改善可将推动重估，将其评级从"跑赢大市"上调至"买 入"，目标价也从155港元上调至180港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，中通快递-W(02057)管理层对于快递持续涨价仍感到乐观，相信 在推行反内卷政策后，行业价格可逐步复苏。相信行业价格趋势改善可将推动重估，将其评级从"跑赢 大市"上调至"买入"，目标价也从155港元上调至180港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of ZTO Express-W to "Buy" from "Accumulate" [4][7]. Core Insights - ZTO Express-W reported a revenue of 11.8 billion yuan for Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, while the adjusted net profit was 2.1 billion yuan, down 26.8% year-on-year [1][4]. - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 22.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.8% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net profit of 4.3 billion yuan, down 14.3% year-on-year [1][4]. - The adjusted net profit per ticket for Q2 2025 was 0.21 yuan, a decrease of 0.12 yuan year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit per ticket for the first half of 2025 was 0.23 yuan, down 0.09 yuan year-on-year [1][4]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 24.9%, a decline of 8.9 percentage points year-on-year, and for the first half of 2025, it was 24.8%, down 7.2 percentage points year-on-year [1][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The core revenue for Q2 2025 was 1.18 yuan per ticket, down 0.06 yuan year-on-year, primarily due to increased incentives and a decrease in average ticket weight [2]. - The operating cost per ticket for Q2 2025 was 0.89 yuan, an increase of 0.07 yuan year-on-year, with other costs rising by 134.9% [2]. Market Share and Guidance - The package volume for Q2 2025 was 9.85 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, with a market share of 19.5%, showing a 0.6 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company has lowered its full-year package volume guidance to a range of 38.8 billion to 40.1 billion pieces, corresponding to an annual growth rate of 14.0% to 18.0% [3]. Capital Expenditure and Dividends - Capital expenditure for the first half of 2025 was 3.1 billion yuan, with expectations for 2025 to remain flat or slightly decrease [3]. - The interim dividend declared was 0.3 USD per share, with a payout ratio of 40% [3]. Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.10, 12.07, and 13.28 yuan per share, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.74, 11.73, and 10.66 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 118.3 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.3%, while adjusted net profit decreased by 26.8% to 20.5 billion yuan [1][2] - The increase in revenue was driven by a 16.5% year-on-year growth in business volume, reaching 9.85 billion packages, despite a 4.7% decline in average revenue per package due to increased subsidies and lighter package weights [2] - The company has adjusted its full-year package volume growth target to 14%-18% from the previous 20%-24% due to changes in the economic and competitive landscape [3] Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 118.3 billion yuan, a 10.3% increase year-on-year, while adjusted net profit fell by 26.8% to 20.5 billion yuan [1] Operational Analysis - The revenue growth of 10.3% in Q2 was attributed to a 16.5% increase in business volume, totaling 9.85 billion packages, although the average revenue per package decreased by 4.7% [2] - The company’s market share was 19.5%, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points but an increase of 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Cost Management - The core cost per package decreased by approximately 0.07 yuan, with transportation costs down by 0.06 yuan due to improved economies of scale and lower oil prices [3] - The gross margin fell by 8.9 percentage points year-on-year to 24.9%, and the adjusted net profit margin also decreased by 8.9 percentage points to 17.3% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 9 billion yuan, 9.7 billion yuan, and 10.6 billion yuan respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that ZTO Express's stock price has significantly lagged behind its A-share listed peers since July, primarily due to investor expectations regarding its lower sensitivity to profit from rising average express delivery prices [1] - Management remains optimistic about the continued price increases in the express delivery sector, believing that the industry's prices can gradually recover following the government's anti-involution policies [1] - In response to the slight negative impact of rising express delivery prices on package volume, the company has revised its full-year package volume growth forecast from a range of 20% to 24% down to a range of 14% to 18% [1] Group 2 - Consequently, the forecast for ZTO's earnings per share for 2025 to 2026 has been adjusted downward by 0.4% to 10% to reflect the anticipated decrease in package volume [1] - The report suggests that improvements in industry pricing trends could drive a revaluation of the company, with the rating upgraded from "outperform" to "buy" and the target price increased from 155 HKD to 180 HKD [1]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China showed strong growth in July 2025, with revenue reaching 120.64 billion yuan and volume at 16.4 billion pieces, marking year-on-year increases of 8.9% and 15.1% respectively [1][2] - Cumulatively, from January to July 2025, the industry generated 839.42 billion yuan in revenue, a 9.9% increase year-on-year, and handled 112.05 billion pieces, reflecting an 18.7% growth [1][2] Industry Data - In July 2025, major express companies reported the following revenue and volume figures: SF Express at 18.657 billion yuan (+15.0%), Shentong at 4.287 billion yuan (+10.0%), Yunda at 4.120 billion yuan (+3.8%), and YTO at 5.371 billion yuan (+12.1%) [3] - The volume for these companies was 1.377 billion, 2.181 billion, 2.162 billion, and 2.583 billion pieces respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.7%, 11.9%, 7.6%, and 20.8% [3] - For the first seven months of 2025, the revenue figures were: SF Express at 127.812 billion yuan (+10.9%), Shentong at 28.980 billion yuan (+14.8%), Yunda at 28.851 billion yuan (+7.1%), and YTO at 37.943 billion yuan (+13.9%) [4] - The volume for the same period was 9.190 billion, 14.528 billion, 14.888 billion, and 17.446 billion pieces, with growth rates of 26.9%, 19.3%, 15.1%, and 21.6% respectively [4] Market Trends - The express delivery industry is benefiting from changes in demand, such as the trend towards lighter and smaller packages, an increase in reverse logistics, and the advantages of lower-tier markets [5] - The growth in volume is significantly outpacing the retail sales growth (+4.8%) and the growth in online retail sales (+6.3%), indicating strong demand resilience [5] - The industry is experiencing a price war, which is impacting per-package revenue, but there are signs of a shift towards more orderly competition as major players adjust their strategies [5] Investment Recommendations - The express delivery sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with expectations of continued growth driven by the expanding e-commerce market and new demands from lower-tier markets [6] - Companies to watch include leading e-commerce express firms such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu Express, as well as SF Express, which is expected to benefit from cyclical improvements in the mid-to-high-end market [6]