Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in major cities, particularly Shanghai and Beijing, is experiencing a significant decline in listing volumes, indicating a shift in market dynamics and potential stabilization in prices [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - Shanghai's second-hand housing listings have decreased to approximately 336,800 units as of January 27, 2026, marking a continuous decline over four months and returning to levels seen in February 2025 [4]. - The Shanghai Lianjia platform reports a 20% reduction in second-hand housing inventory compared to January 2025, with transaction volumes increasing by 15% month-on-month as of January 20, 2026 [5]. - In Beijing, the second-hand housing listings have dropped from 143,200 units in September 2025 to 125,300 units, reflecting a broader trend of declining new listings across major cities [6]. Group 2: Seller Behavior Changes - Many homeowners are opting to withdraw their listings or convert sales to rentals due to persistent price pressures and market uncertainty, with some reporting that rental yields can reach 3.3% to 3.5% [8][11]. - A notable case involves a homeowner who, after multiple price reductions, chose to withdraw her property from the market, indicating a shift in mindset among sellers who are now more reluctant to sell at lower prices [8][11]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Listing Decline - Analysts attribute the decline in listings to a combination of factors, including a slowdown in new listings and an acceleration in transaction speeds, leading to a gradual consumption of existing inventory [11]. - The market is witnessing a transition where sellers are less willing to accept significant price cuts, suggesting a potential stabilization in housing prices as the downward pressure eases [11][12]. - The overall transaction volume in Shanghai reached a four-year high of 254,000 units in 2025, with expectations for continued strong performance in early 2026, driven by high-value properties entering the market [12].

二手房挂牌量出现新趋势 北京上海变化显著 随着核心城市二手房市场成交持续回暖，部分城市二手房挂牌量正在悄然下降。 以上海为例，随着新增挂牌量放缓、成交速度加快，上海的二手房总体挂牌量已基本回归至去年2月份 水平，前期堆积的库存正在逐步消化。上海链家称，该平台二手房库存挂牌量已连续9个月下降。 "尽管各家中介机构对于'净下降'的绝对值统计数据略有不同，但大家对于'挂牌量迎来下行趋势'已经达 成共识。"上海中原地产资深分析师卢文曦表示。 在经历了长达数年的价格博弈后，越来越多房东开始拒绝继续"拼低价出货"，他们或是撤牌，或是由售 转租，这些心态与行为的变化，正在改变二手房市场的供求关系与价格趋势。 京沪二手房挂牌量同步回落 作为房地产市场的"风向标"，上海二手房市场挂牌量已经出现持续性回落。 根据"网上房地产"(由上海市房地产交易中心主办)数据，截至2026年1月27日，上海全市二手住宅挂牌 量约为33.68万套(含"一房多挂"，即同一套房源在多个平台重复统计)，这一数字已连续4个月下降，目 前已基本回归至去年2月份水平，前期高位堆积的库存正在逐步消化。 上海链家平台的监测数据也印证了这一趋势。上海链家近日披露， ...

随着核心城市二手房市场成交持续回暖，部分城市二手房挂牌量正在悄然下降。 以上海为例，随着新增挂牌量放缓、成交速度加快，上海的二手房总体挂牌量已基本回归至去年2月份 水平，前期堆积的库存正在逐步消化。上海链家称，该平台二手房库存挂牌量已连续9个月下降。 上海链家称其平台上的二手房库存挂牌量已连续9个月下降。 "尽管各家中介机构对于'净下降'的绝对值统计数据略有不同，但大家对于'挂牌量迎来下行趋势'已经达 成共识。"上海中原地产资深分析师卢文曦表示。 在经历了长达数年的价格博弈后，越来越多房东开始拒绝继续"拼低价出货"，他们或是撤牌，或是由售 转租，这些心态与行为的变化，正在改变二手房市场的供求关系与价格趋势。 京沪二手房挂牌量同步回落 作为房地产市场的"风向标"，上海二手房市场挂牌量已经出现持续性回落。 根据"网上房地产"（由上海市房地产交易中心主办）数据，截至2026年1月27日，上海全市二手住宅挂 牌量约为33.68万套（含"一房多挂"，即同一套房源在多个平台重复统计），这一数字已连续4个月下 降，目前已基本回归至去年2月份水平，前期高位堆积的库存正在逐步消化。 上海链家平台的监测数据也印证了这一趋势。上海 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market demonstrates resilience and structural differentiation, with new home prices rising against a backdrop of national declines in real estate investment and sales [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In December 2025, Shanghai's new residential sales prices increased by 4.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, making it the only first-tier city to achieve both increases [1]. - The total annual increase in new home prices for 2025 reached 5.7%, contrasting with declines in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1]. - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai showed a milder decline, with a 0.6% month-on-month drop in December 2025, better than the overall first-tier city average of 0.9% [1]. Group 2: Transaction Volume - In 2025, Shanghai's second-hand home transaction volume reached 254,000 units, marking a new high and surpassing the strong performance of 2022 [3]. - As of January 18, 2026, the monthly second-hand home registration volume reached 12,849 units, with expectations of exceeding 20,000 units for the third consecutive month [3]. - The increase in transaction volume is attributed to the seasonal demand for school district properties and the perception that prices have bottomed out, leading to a positive shift in seller attitudes [3]. Group 3: Policy and Market Dynamics - Continuous policy support, including historically low mortgage rates and targeted tax incentives, has lowered the barriers to home purchasing [3]. - Market research indicates a significant increase in inquiries for second-hand homes in key cities, particularly from families with multiple children and new residents, suggesting a shift from market observation to actual purchasing [3]. - The rental yield in 30 cities has risen to 2.06%, surpassing fixed deposit rates, indicating a potential market bottom [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that 2026 will be a critical year for confirming the bottom of the real estate market in Shanghai and nationwide [4]. - There is a consensus among real estate companies regarding price stabilization, with a narrowing of negotiation space for buyers [4]. - The focus of competition in the industry is expected to shift from price wars to service quality and product competitiveness [4].

资料图 本文综合第一财经、北京商报、南方都市报、智通财经等 自2022年以来，中国房地产已经经历约4年的深度调整。目前，全国房价已普遍跌回2016年的水平，市场对房地产行业未来走向的关注不断升温。 2026年楼市将走向何方？能否升温反弹？是延续底部徘徊，还是迎来稳步升温？刚需一族可以出手了吗？有业内人士表示，从多项核心指标来看，本轮国内 房价调整幅度已明显超过国际平均水平，多指标预示二手房价调整已进入底部区间。 1 克而瑞统计数据显示，2025年国内商品房全年成交面积约为8.9亿平方米，大致相当于2009年的水平；成交金额约8.4万亿元，接近2015年的规模。其中，商 品住宅成交面积为7.4亿平方米，回到了2007年的水平。2025年，30个重点城市二手房全年成交面积达到2.14亿平方米，创下历史新高。但与此同时，价格调 整幅度也相当显著。 丁祖昱认为，从国际比较来看，本轮国内房价调整幅度已明显超过国际平均水平。综合1970年以来57个国家和地区的最长房价调整周期，国际房价平均调整 周期约4.5年，平均回调幅度约22%。相比之下，国内核心城市二手房的调整幅度已"明显偏深"。 业内人士：国内房价调整幅度明显超过 ...

Core Insights - The real estate industry has shifted from scale competition to product competitiveness since the second half of 2023, with the "Good House" policy from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in 2025 being a key opportunity for future development [1] - Currently, less than 5% of existing housing meets the "Good House" standards, with an annual demand for housing improvement projected to reach between 700 million to 1 billion square meters, indicating a significant growth potential for the industry [1] - The integration of technology is expected to lead to a qualitative leap in smart housing by 2025, enhancing living quality through various innovations such as "Five Constants+" living experiences, full-scene smart home systems, and intelligent community management [1] - With current housing prices at a low point and product standards at a historical high, it is considered an optimal time for buying or upgrading homes, with expectations for the next five years to be recognized as the "Product Year" for Chinese real estate [1]

"2026年重新界定我国一二三四线城市，其中一线城市5个，上海、北京、杭州、成都、广州！" 日前克而瑞集团联席董事长、普睿数智科技董事长丁祖昱在2026年度楼市发布会上的重磅表态，让成都楼市站上了新的能级起点——基于市场容量、交易 活力及人居动能等综合维度，这座城市新晋跻5个一线城市之列。 | | | | | | | | 2026 重新划分一三四线 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -二线城市核心指标 | | | | | | 能级 | 成市 | 一二手面积(万m) | | 一二手金额(亿元) | | 人均一二手购房面积(m') | | 上海、北京、杭州、成都、广州 | | | | 2024年 | 2025年 | 2024年 | 2025年 | 2024年 | 2025年 | | | | 上海 | 2526 | 2507 | 12816 | 12180 | 1.0 | 1.0 | | | | 北京 | 2124 | 2047 | 7453 | 7397 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 二线10个 | | 一线 ...

Core Insights - The current stock of housing that meets the "good house" standard is less than 5%, with an annual demand for housing improvement projected to reach 700 million to 1 billion square meters, indicating a shift towards a "product certainty era" in the industry [1] - The real estate sector is transitioning from quantity expansion to quality enhancement, making product strength the core competitive advantage for companies in this new development phase [1] - The current housing prices are at a low point, while product standards have reached historical highs, presenting an optimal time for buying and upgrading homes, with expectations for the next five years to be the "year of products" in Chinese real estate [1] Industry Trends - According to the latest report by CRIC, leading real estate companies are excelling in product strength by focusing on safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence, as reflected in the "2025 China Real Estate Enterprise Product Strength TOP 100" rankings [2] - The rankings include traditional categories such as top enterprises and products, along with new categories like "Top 10 Good House Enterprises" and "Top 20 Good House Works," showcasing the industry's focus on quality [2] - Despite challenges such as market saturation and structural declines in purchasing power, the relationship between good products and sales is not direct, necessitating a deep integration of market analysis, customer insights, and product refinement to overcome these challenges [2] Product Development - CRIC's CEO highlighted the importance of selecting unique market opportunities, with projects like Shenzhen Bay and Shanghai Gao Fu achieving strong sales due to their prime locations [3] - Emphasizing product uniqueness and differentiation is crucial, as seen in projects like Zhengzhou Jinmao and Puyang Zhuyou, which have achieved competitive advantages through differentiated offerings [3] - The industry is expected to evolve by 2026 from a focus on individual product competition to a more integrated approach involving product, customer research, and operational strategies [3]

2026.01.07 本文字数：1476，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经马一凡 在房地产行业经历深度调整的背景下，市场对未来走向的关注不断升温。1月7日，在"2026丁祖昱评楼市"发布会上，克而瑞集团联席总裁、普睿数智科技 董事长丁祖昱表示，从多项核心指标来看，本轮房地产调整已进入关键阶段，尤其是二手房价格，正在逐步触及底部区间。 2025年房地产行业的整体销售规模继续回落，已达到2010年以前的水平。"这不是一件坏事。"丁祖昱认为，房地产规模回归理性，恰恰意味着行业正在完 成去泡沫、去杠杆的过程。 克而瑞统计数据显示，2025年国内商品房全年成交面积约为8.9亿平方米，大致相当于2009年的水平；成交金额约8.4万亿元，接近2015年的规模。其中， 商品住宅成交面积为7.4亿平方米，回到了2007年的水平。 供给端指标同样出现明显回调。2025年房地产新开工面积约5.8亿平方米，降至2004年前后的水平，回到了20年前；竣工面积约6.0亿平方米，也回落至 2007年水平。 尽管行业规模大幅收缩，丁祖昱认为，房地产依然是中国经济的重要支柱。当前房地产开发投资占GDP比重仍为6.1%，房地产增加值占GDP ...

2026.01. 07 本文字数：1476，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 马一凡 在房地产行业经历深度调整的背景下，市场对未来走向的关注不断升温。1月7日，在"2026丁祖昱评楼市"发布会上，克而瑞集团联席总裁、普睿数智科 技董事长丁祖昱表示，从多项核心指标来看，本轮房地产调整已进入关键阶段，尤其是二手房价格，正在逐步触及底部区间。 2025年房地产行业的整体销售规模继续回落，已达到2010年以前的水平。"这不是一件坏事。"丁祖昱认为，房地产规模回归理性，恰恰意味着行业正在 完成去泡沫、去杠杆的过程。 克而瑞统计数据显示，2025年国内商品房全年成交面积约为8.9亿平方米，大致相当于2009年的水平；成交金额约8.4万亿元，接近2015年的规模。其 中，商品住宅成交面积为7.4亿平方米，回到了2007年的水平。 供给端指标同样出现明显回调。2025年房地产新开工面积约5.8亿平方米，降至2004年前后的水平，回到了20年前；竣工面积约6.0亿平方米，也回落至 2007年水平。 尽管行业规模大幅收缩，丁祖昱认为，房地产依然是中国经济的重要支柱。当前房地产开发投资占GDP比重仍为6.1%，房地产增加值占 ...