证券研究报告：传媒|点评报告 发布时间：2026-03-02 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 926.46 | | 52 周最高 | 1021.75 | | 52 周最低 | 591.71 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -17% -11% -5% 1% 7% 13% 19% 25% 31% 37% 43% 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 2026-02 传媒 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王晓萱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522080005 Email:wangxiaoxuan@cnpsec.com 传媒行业点评 春节档表现整体承压，持续关注优质内容供给 ⚫ 事件回顾 2026 年 2 月 24 日，猫眼专业版公众号发布《2026 春节档数据洞 察》，春节档电影总票房为 57.52 亿元，同比下降 39.5%；总观影人次 为 1.20 亿，同比下降 35.8%。 ⚫ 投资要点 ⚫ 投资建议 我们建议关注光线传媒、中国电影、上海电影、光线传媒、北京 文化、华策影 ...

2019年的春节档，回想起来最让人心潮澎湃。从《流浪地球》到《飞驰人生》甚至是《疯狂外星人》，电影行业勇于创新，拿出了最大勇气去 自我表达，并且获得了超额奖赏。 史上最长的春节假期结束了，我们重新开工上班，2026年春节档也就落下帷幕，以57.52亿元总票房的成绩收官。 这可能是个巧合，这个数字和2019年差不多。2019年，从除夕到正月初六历时7天，春节档票房成绩58.23亿，再次刷新前一年的纪录。 2019年春节档票房成绩确实不是历史最高。在《哪吒之魔童闹海》的助阵下，去年春节档总票房高达95.82亿元。票房奇迹之外，去年的春节档也有足够 的话题性，除了哪吒霸榜，几部电影退档也引发了各种层面的讨论。 求稳，则成为今年导演们的共识。春节档几部影片开分后，均在7分以上，整体口碑平稳，没有意外也没有惊喜。 而2019年的春节档，回想起来最让人心潮澎湃。从《流浪地球》到《飞驰人生》甚至是《疯狂外星人》，电影行业勇于创新，拿出了最大勇气去自我表 达，并且获得了超额奖赏。 从流浪到回家 《流浪地球》上映后，有人把2019年定义为中国电影的科幻元年。 但实际上，早在2014年，中影集团就公布了包括《流浪地球》《三体》在 ...

股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：山上 A股市场影视动漫股跌幅进一步扩大，其中，光线传媒20CM跌停，幸福蓝海跌近18%，博纳影业、横店影 视、中国电影、金逸影视10CM跌停，上海电影、万达电影逼近跌停，欢瑞世纪、捷成股份跌超7%，华策 影视跌超5%。 | | | | | 影视动漫板块个股 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↑ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | 1 | 300251 | 光线传媒 | 1 | -19.99 | 639亿 | 32.97 | | 2 | 300528 | 幸福临海 | Î | -17.89 | 75.23 Z | -2.89 | | 3 | 001330 | 博纳影业 | 1 | -10.02 | 158亿 | 51.18 | | 4 | 603103 | 横店影视 | 1 | -10.00 | 199亿 | 89.45 | | 5 | 002905 | 金逸影视 | 演 | -9.98 | 41.73亿 | -1.86 | | 6 | 60 ...

2月15日，电影市场"最长春节档"正式拉开帷幕。 与往年7至8天的春节假期不同，今年春节档将从2月15日持续至2月23日，长达9天的假期为影片的前期预热和后期走势创造了有利条件。 2024年和2025年春节档电影消费人次分别达1.63亿、1.87亿。超1.5亿的稳定观影群体流向引发市场关注。 灯塔专业版显示，今年春节档将有8部影片与观众见面，涵盖喜剧、悬疑、武侠、科幻、动画等多种类型。截至2月15日16点，2026年春节档预售总票房超 3.2亿元，档期内预售票房前三名分别为《飞驰人生3》《惊蛰无声》《镖人：风起大漠》，其中《飞驰人生3》单片预售票房破亿元，暂时领跑今年春节 档。另外三部影片《熊出没·年年有熊》《星河入梦》和《熊猫计划之部落奇遇记》暂列春节档第四到六名，预售票房在1000万元以上。 图片来源：灯塔专业版 缺乏"定海神针"，票房承压盼黑马突围 除了以上6部将于2月17日（大年初一）上映的新片，2月19日（大年初三）还有纪录片《重返·狼群》重映，粤语喜剧《夜王》则选择在2月20日（大年初 四）在两广地区（广东、广西）率先上映，这是往年春节档中未出现过的新形式。但从票房来看尚不构成对春节档的影响力，《 ...

2月15日，电影市场"最长春节档"正式拉开帷幕。 与往年7至8天的春节假期不同，今年春节档将从2月15日持续至2月23日，长达9天的假期为影片的前期预热和后期走势创造了有利条件。 2024年和2025年春节档电影消费人次分别达1.63亿、1.87亿。超1.5亿的稳定观影群体流向引发市场关注。 灯塔专业版显示，今年春节档将有8部影片与观众见面，涵盖喜剧、悬疑、武侠、科幻、动画等多种类型。截至2月15日16点，2026年春节档预售总票房超 3.2亿元，档期内预售票房前三名分别为《飞驰人生3》《惊蛰无声》《镖人：风起大漠》，其中《飞驰人生3》单片预售票房破亿元，暂时领跑今年春节 档。另外三部影片《熊出没·年年有熊》《星河入梦》和《熊猫计划之部落奇遇记》暂列春节档第四到六名，预售票房在1000万元以上。 作为一年中最热门的档期，多位分析师认为，今年春节档缺乏"定海神针"式的领衔影片。从预售来看，仅《飞驰人生3》预售破亿，以1.37亿元预售票房 成为领衔的影片，几乎是第二名《惊蛰无声》的2倍，但去年春节档有4部影片预售票房破亿。 中金公司研报认为，预估票房最高的《飞驰人生3》（36亿元）和《惊蛰无声》（16亿元），量级 ...

Core Insights - The 2024 Spring Festival film market is set to run from February 15 to February 23, lasting 9 days, which is expected to create favorable conditions for pre-release promotion and post-release performance [1] - The total box office for this year's Spring Festival is projected to be between 6.5 billion and 8.5 billion yuan, representing a decline of 10% to 32% compared to the same period in 2025 [9] - The lack of a standout "anchor" film is noted, with only "Flying Life 3" achieving over 100 million yuan in pre-sales, while last year's festival had four films surpassing this mark [9][10] Film Market Overview - Eight films will be released during the Spring Festival, covering various genres including comedy, suspense, martial arts, science fiction, and animation [1] - As of February 15, the pre-sale box office for the 2026 Spring Festival has already exceeded 320 million yuan, with "Flying Life 3" leading the pre-sales with over 100 million yuan [1] - The competition among films is expected to be intense, with a focus on quality and audience differentiation [10][11] Audience Trends - Female audiences are expected to continue leading the market, contributing three-quarters of the box office on the first day of pre-sales [19] - Young audiences are projected to increase their share, with films like "The Silent Awakening" and "Star River Dream" appealing to this demographic [19] - The overall audience profile is expected to cover all age groups, with significant contributions from third and fourth-tier cities [19] Industry Dynamics - The film industry is experiencing a shift in marketing strategies, with many films canceling premiere events due to declining investment returns [16] - The stock market has reacted positively to the upcoming Spring Festival, with several film-related stocks seeing significant gains [17] - The emergence of short dramas as a competing entertainment option during the Spring Festival is noted, with platforms launching various promotional strategies to capture audience attention [20][21]

Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival film season is experiencing a notable decline in box office performance compared to the previous year, with pre-sale ticket sales significantly lower than in 2025 [2][3] - The film lineup for 2026 lacks the strong blockbuster potential seen in 2025, leading to a cold start for the extended holiday period [2][4] Pre-sale Performance - The pre-sale ticket sales for the 2026 Spring Festival reached approximately 830 million yuan on the first day and exceeded 1 billion yuan by the second day, which is a stark contrast to the over 2 billion yuan achieved in the same period in 2025 [3][4] - The leading film in pre-sales is "Fast Life 3," while several other films have shown weak performance, with three films failing to surpass 20 million yuan in pre-sales [3][4] Box Office Distribution - The box office distribution indicates a concentration of screenings among a few films, with "Fast Life 3" and "Silent Awakening" accounting for nearly 60% of the total screenings [4] - Other films like "Bounty Hunter: Wind Rises in the Desert" and "Boonie Bears: Year of the Bear" have limited screening shares, reflecting a significant disparity in market interest [4] Marketing and Promotion - The promotional efforts for the 2026 Spring Festival films have been relatively subdued compared to the previous year, lacking the extensive marketing campaigns that generated buzz in 2025 [4][5] - The absence of engaging promotional activities has contributed to the overall lack of excitement surrounding this year's film offerings [4][5] Industry Trends - The film market's overall performance has been declining, with 2025's box office growth largely driven by a few successful films, indicating a fragile recovery rather than a robust market rebound [5][6] - The traditional peak periods for box office performance are losing their effectiveness, as audience viewing habits shift and competition from other entertainment options increases [6][8] Capital and Investment Strategies - The 2026 Spring Festival films are characterized by a "broad net" co-production strategy, contrasting with the previous year's focus on single blockbuster films [9][10] - This shift reflects a defensive investment approach aimed at mitigating risks in an uncertain market, as many companies face ongoing financial challenges [10][11] Market Outlook - Despite the pre-sale challenges, there has been a recent uptick in stock prices for film-related companies, indicating some investor optimism [11][12] - However, forecasts suggest a potential decline in box office revenue for the 2026 Spring Festival, with estimates around 7.51 billion yuan, representing a 21% decrease from 2025 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media sector [3] Core Insights - The media sector outperformed the market in January, with the Shenwan Media Index rising by 17.94%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 16.29 percentage points, ranking second among 31 sectors [4][22] - The number of game approvals remains high, with 177 domestic games and 5 imported games approved in January, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.8% [4][31] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the gaming market, projecting a revenue of CNY 350.79 billion in 2025, a 7.7% increase year-on-year [35] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost box office revenues, with seven films scheduled for release, including "Fast Life 3," which has generated significant interest [66][72] Summary by Sections 1. Media Sector Market Review - In January, the media sector ranked second among 31 sectors, with a TTM-PE of 49.9x, placing it in the 98.8th percentile over the past five years [22][27] 2. Gaming - The report notes a sustained high level of game approvals, with 182 game licenses issued in January 2026, marking a 33.8% year-on-year increase [31] - The gaming market is projected to generate CNY 350.79 billion in 2025, with mobile and client games expected to see revenues of CNY 257.1 billion and CNY 78.2 billion, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 7.9% and 15.0% [35][41] 3. Film and Television - January's total box office was CNY 1.964 billion, down 69.2% year-on-year, primarily due to fewer new releases [55] - The Spring Festival is anticipated to drive box office recovery, with a nine-day holiday expected to boost ticket sales [66][67] 4. AI Applications - The report emphasizes the rapid development of AI applications, particularly with the introduction of Seedance 2.0, which enhances video generation capabilities [86][100] - The competition for AI application traffic during the Spring Festival is expected to intensify, with major players launching promotional campaigns [6][86]

Group 1: Market Overview - In January 2026, the media sector (Shenwan Media Index) rose by 17.94%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 16.29 percentage points, ranking second among 31 industries [4][22] - The current TTM-PE of the Shenwan Media Index is 49.9x, positioned at the 98.8th percentile over the past five years, indicating high valuation levels [4][22] - Notable stock performances included BlueFocus, TianDi Online, TianLong Group, and YiDianTian, while GuiGuang Network, Hubei Broadcasting, and ShengTong Shares saw declines [4][27] Group 2: Gaming Sector - In January 2026, a total of 177 domestic games and 5 imported games were approved, with the cumulative issuance of game licenses reaching 182, a year-on-year increase of 33.8% [29][31] - The Chinese gaming market is projected to generate revenues of 350.79 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [35] - Mobile and client games are expected to generate actual sales revenues of 257.1 billion yuan and 78.2 billion yuan respectively in 2025, with growth rates of 7.9% and 15.0% [41] Group 3: Film and Television Sector - The total box office in January 2026 was 1.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69.2%, primarily due to fewer new releases [55] - The upcoming Spring Festival period will feature 7 films, with "Fei Chi Ren Sheng 3" being the most anticipated, potentially boosting box office recovery during the 9-day holiday [66][72] - In January, the top-performing series included "Punishment 2" with 1.131 billion views, followed by "Pride" and "Xiao Yao" [74] Group 4: AI Applications - Seedance 2.0 has gained attention in the video generation field, enhancing the commercial potential of AI-generated content [86] - The competition for AI application traffic during the Spring Festival is intensifying, with major players like Yuanbao and Qianwen launching promotional campaigns [6] - The integration of AI applications is expected to drive growth in the gaming and IP toy sectors, with a focus on product cycles and performance during the holiday season [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - In January 2026, the media sector (Shenwan Media Index) rose by 17.94%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 16.29 percentage points, ranking second among 31 industries in Shenwan's first-level classification [4][22]. - The current TTM-PE of the Shenwan Media Index is 49.9x, which is at the 98.8th percentile of the past five years, indicating high valuation levels [4][22]. - Notable stock performances include BlueFocus, Tiandi Online, Tianlong Group, and Yidian Tianxia with significant gains, while Guigang Network, Hubei Broadcasting, and Beijing Culture experienced declines [4][27]. Group 2: Gaming Sector - In January 2026, a total of 177 domestic games and 5 imported games were approved, with the cumulative issuance of game licenses reaching 182, a year-on-year increase of 33.8% [29][31]. - The Chinese gaming market is projected to generate revenues of 350.79 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [35]. - Mobile and client games are expected to generate actual sales revenues of 257.1 billion yuan and 78.2 billion yuan respectively in 2025, with growth rates of 7.9% and 15.0% [41]. Group 3: Film and Television Sector - The total box office in January 2026 was 1.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69.2%, primarily due to fewer new releases [55]. - The upcoming Spring Festival period is expected to boost box office performance, with seven films scheduled for release, including "Fast Life 3," which has generated significant pre-release interest [66][72]. - The top-performing series in January included "Punishment 2" with 1.131 billion views, followed by "Pride" and "Xiaoyao" [74]. Group 4: AI Applications - The Seedance 2.0 model has made significant advancements in video generation, allowing for the creation of "director-level" audio and video content, which is expected to catalyze the AI comic series market [86][96]. - The competition for AI application traffic during the Spring Festival is intensifying, with major players like Yuanbao and Qianwen launching aggressive marketing campaigns [6][86]. - The integration of AI applications is anticipated to reshape the content service ecosystem, with a focus on companies like Zhejiang Wenlian and Huimai Technology [6][86]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The investment outlook remains positive for AI applications, gaming, and IP toys, with expectations of multiple catalysts during the Spring Festival [6]. - Recommended stocks for January include Giant Network, Kyeing Network, Bilibili, Kunlun Wanwei, and Zhongwen Online, with February recommendations maintaining a similar focus [6].