光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2026 年 03 月 03 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场全天低开回升，三大指数涨跌互现。油气股集体爆发，中国石油、中国 | | | | 海油、中国石化等超 20 股涨停。贵金属板块午后大涨，西部黄金、四川黄 | | | | 金、山东黄金等近 10 股涨停。军工板块表现活跃，观想科技、北方导航、 | | | | 中天火箭等多股涨停。下跌方面，光伏板块下挫，亿晶光电、双良节能跌停。 | | | | 个股跌多涨少，沪深京三市超 4200 股飘绿，今日成交 3.05 万亿。截止收盘 | | | | 沪指涨 0.47%，深成指跌 0.2%，创业板指跌 0.49%。当下，A 股热点题材估 | | | | 值水平偏高，中证 500 指数动态 PE 超过过去 5 年两倍标准差。A 股科技题 | | | | 材过去 1 年存在以美股为锚的逻辑。当下 A 股与美股出现显著分化。以科创 | | | 股指 | 50 为代表的 A 股科技指数近期回到去年高位，但海外中国题材科技指数最 | 震荡 | | | 高点普 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report highlights the potential for growth in China's military trade, driven by increasing global military expenditures and the transition from low-cost exports to high-end weaponry [20][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring three key signals regarding the U.S.-Iran situation, which could impact market dynamics significantly [11][12] - The report suggests that the recent decline in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily driven by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, indicating a shift towards safe-haven assets [30][32] Group 2: Stock Market Focus - The report identifies specific stocks to watch in the context of military trade, including AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and Aerospace Rainbow, which are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for military technology [21][20] - The report notes that the AI industry is exhibiting characteristics of a "rigid bubble," with companies like NVIDIA and GE Vernova being highlighted as key players [34][36] - The report suggests that the Taiwanese stock market is benefiting from strong export performance, particularly in the semiconductor sector, despite valuation pressures [34][36] Group 3: ETF Recommendations - The report recommends investing in SPDR® Gold ETF and STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF as strategic options to capitalize on the current market conditions [22][27] - The report provides performance metrics for these ETFs, indicating strong returns over various time frames, which supports their inclusion in investment strategies [25][28] Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The report advises investors to consider reducing exposure to long-duration U.S. Treasuries as yields decline due to geopolitical tensions, suggesting a tactical approach to bond investments [30][32] - The report highlights the performance of various bond categories, including U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds, indicating a mixed outlook based on current market conditions [5][30]

Xml [Table_Title] 国防军工行业 商业航天景气抬升，看好 AIDC 供电&服务器、军贸、大飞机等 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|国防军工 证券研究报告 | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-03-01 | | [分析师： Table_Author] 孟祥杰 | SAC 执证号：S0260521040002 | | | --- | --- | --- | | SFC CE No. BRF275 | | | | 010-59136693 | | | | mengxiangjie@gf.com.cn | 分析师： | 吴坤其 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120001 | | | | SFC CE No. BRT139 | | | | 010-59133689 | | | | wukunqi@gf.com.cn | 分析师： | 邱净博 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120005 | | | | 010-59136685 | ...

美以对伊朗发动联合打击，伊朗已展开报复行动。全球安全形势有所变化，各国加 大军购力度或为必选项，以预警雷达、便携式导弹等防空预警、低成本高效费比装 备或将成为军贸市场爆款。建议关注我国军贸产业链上市公司。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 全球安全形势变化，关注军贸长逻辑 [Table_Industry] 军工 美以对伊朗发动联合打击事件点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周明頔(分析师) | 010-83939792 | zhoumingdi@gtht.com | S0880525080003 | | 杨天昊(分析师) | 010-83939791 | yangtianhao@gtht.com | S0880523080010 | 本报告导读： 军工《军工板块上涨，国际地缘冲突升级》 2026.03.01 军工《长征十号与梦舟飞船首次飞行试验取得成 功》2026.02.11 军工《国产军民机亮相新加坡航展，美将加速生 产五种关键 ...

证券日报网讯2月27日，北方导航（600435）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年2月13日， 公司的股东人数约为16.52万户。 ...

数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证卫星产业指数(931594)前十大权重股分别为航天电子、中国卫 星、臻镭科技（维权）、中国卫通、中科星图、国博电子、华测导航、北斗星通、北方导航、四维图 新，前十大权重股合计占比64.36%。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 截至2026年2月27日 10:02，中证卫星产业指数(931594)上涨0.79%，成分股海兰信上涨7.21%，信科移动 上涨5.41%，国科微上涨4.73%，国机精工上涨3.79%，鸿远电子上涨3.56%。卫星ETF鹏华(563790)上涨 0.75%， 冲击3连涨。最新价报1.2元。 卫星ETF鹏华紧密跟踪中证卫星产业指数，中证卫星产业指数选取50只业务涉及卫星制造、卫星发射、 卫星通信、卫星导航、卫星遥感等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，反映卫星产业上市公司证券的整 体表现。 消息面上，近期商业航天产业链再度迎来密集催化，中科宇航可回收液体火箭力箭二号计划今年3月下 旬首飞。此前蓝箭航天宣布，我国重复使用火箭朱雀三号计划今年第二季度再次开展回收试验。商业航 天概念近期热度重燃。 华龙证券指出，我国商业火箭发射进入规模化阶段，政策持续 ...

Group 1 - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a revival, with the large aircraft segment showing active performance. During the Spring Festival travel period, all domestically produced aircraft operated by Eastern Airlines will be in commercial operation. The 14 domestically produced C919 aircraft are expected to operate nearly 50 flights daily, representing a 52.6% increase in daily flight volume compared to 2025 [1] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang indicated that while the economic benefits of space data centers are currently poor, they are expected to improve in the future. He noted that the operational environment in space is significantly different from that on Earth, leading to distinct technological solutions for space data centers. Multiple technological routes are currently competing for implementation, and AI is anticipated to have promising applications in the space sector [1] - According to Zhonghang Securities, in the short term, satellite launch progress and favorable policies are the main drivers of market activity, and trading enthusiasm in the sector is expected to continue. In the medium to long term, breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology, accelerated constellation construction, and the integration of terrestrial and space applications are likely to sustain revenue and profit growth for listed companies, shifting market dynamics from valuation-driven to a combination of valuation and performance-driven [1] Group 2 - As of February 26, 2026, the China Satellite Industry Index (931594) rose by 1.17%, with constituent stocks such as Hongyuan Electronics up by 10.01%, Maixinlin up by 9.61%, and Changjiang Communication up by 5.46%. The Satellite ETF Penghua (563790) increased by 1.02%, with the latest price at 1.19 yuan [2] - The Satellite ETF Penghua closely tracks the China Satellite Industry Index, which selects 50 listed companies involved in satellite manufacturing, launching, communication, navigation, and remote sensing, reflecting the overall performance of the satellite industry [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Satellite Industry Index (931594) include Aerospace Electronics, China Satellite, Zhenlei Technology, China Satcom, and others, with the top ten accounting for 64.36% of the total index weight [2]

商业航天迎来多重利好，国内方面，中国商业航天企业代表蓝箭航天宣布，我国重复使用火箭朱雀三号 计划今年第二季度再次开展回收试验。这一计划若顺利推进，将加速可重复使用火箭系统的成熟进程， 为中国商业航天领域树立新的里程碑。海外方面，SpaceX首席执行官马斯克设想从月球电磁弹射AI卫 星，以支持AI等高性能计算需求。 上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排面要拉满，新号启幸运>> 截至2026年2月25日 13:56，中证卫星产业指数(931594)强势上涨3.21%，成分股航天电子上涨6.65%，新 雷能上涨5.37%，航天环宇上涨4.91%，信科移动，铂力特（维权）等个股跟涨。卫星ETF鹏华(563790) 上涨2.87%，最新价报1.18元。 卫星ETF鹏华紧密跟踪中证卫星产业指数，中证卫星产业指数选取50只业务涉及卫星制造、卫星发射、 卫星通信、卫星导航、卫星遥感等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，反映卫星产业上市公司证券的整 体表现。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证卫星产业指数(931594)前十大权重股分别为航天电子、中国卫 星、臻镭科技（维权）、中国卫通、中科星图、国博电子、华测导航 ...

卫星ETF鹏华紧密跟踪中证卫星产业指数，中证卫星产业指数选取50只业务涉及卫星制造、卫星发射、 卫星通信、卫星导航、卫星遥感等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，反映卫星产业上市公司证券的整 体表现。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证卫星产业指数(931594)前十大权重股分别为航天电子、中国卫 星、臻镭科技、中国卫通、中科星图、国博电子、华测导航、北斗星通、北方导航、四维图新，前十大 权重股合计占比64.36%。 消息面上，近日，在联合国外空委科技小组委员会第63届会议期间，中国商业航天企业代表蓝箭航天宣 布，我国重复使用火箭朱雀三号计划今年第二季度再次开展回收试验。 申万宏源研究指出，商业航天作为"十五五"重点发展方向，正迎来火箭可复用技术试验的阶段性突破 ——2月11日长征十号低空验证与梦舟飞船最大动压逃逸试验成功完成，系我国首次实现载人飞船返回 舱海上搜索回收任务。叠加"航天强国"写入国家规划及地缘安全驱动，商业航天产业化进程加速，卫星 制造、发射服务、地面设备及应用端均进入提质增量上升周期。该进展直接利好卫星产业链上游核心配 套能力提升与规模化降本。 截至2026年2月25日 10:12，中证卫 ...

Group 1: Market Trends Post-Spring Festival - The Shanghai Composite Index shows a significant upward trend after the Spring Festival, with probabilities of increases over 5, 10, 20, and 30 days being 75%, 70%, 80%, and 60% respectively, and median gains of 1.64%, 1.32%, 9.45%, and 3.88% [1] - Over the past decade, the coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and defense industries have performed well in the month following the Spring Festival, with the computer industry leading in the last two years [1] Group 2: Industry Performance Data - Historical data shows varying performance across industries during the Spring Festival period, with coal, environmental protection, and agriculture showing notable gains in specific years, such as coal in 2016 with a maximum gain of 10.34% and agriculture in 2019 with a maximum gain of 19.78% [2] - The report indicates that the coal industry is expected to see a significant increase in production capacity in 2026, with an anticipated rise of 0.7 billion tons, while also highlighting a potential reduction in capacity by 1.5 billion tons due to policy changes [2] Group 3: Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector is projected to experience a gradual recovery in pig prices by 2026, driven by a reduction in breeding sow capacity, which is expected to improve profitability for leading pig farming companies [3] - The report emphasizes opportunities in the poultry sector, particularly for leading chicken farming companies, and highlights the growth potential in the pet market [3] Group 4: Defense Industry Outlook - The defense industry is poised for growth in 2026, driven by geopolitical factors and advancements in military technology, with a focus on precision-guided munitions, unmanned systems, and networked battlefield capabilities [4] - Key recommendations include investments in missile weaponry, new aviation equipment, unmanned systems, and commercial aerospace sectors, with specific companies highlighted for their strategic positions within these industries [5]