iShares Moves Short-Term Bond ETFs to the Big BoardAs the hunt for yield and stability remains a cornerstone of portfolios in 2026, a group of iShares short-term bond ETFs have made a strategic move to the Big Board today.Four prominent short-term fixed-income vehicles have officially transitioned their primary listing to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The move involves the $75 billion [iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV)], the $20 billion [iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHV)], the $470 mil ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.1%, the Nasdaq down 0.22%, and the S&P 500 up 0.05%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index rose approximately 1.2%. All three indices recorded declines over the past week, with the Nasdaq showing the largest drop, indicating cautious market sentiment [1]. - Most popular tech stocks declined, with Nvidia and Apple dropping over 2%, and Google, Meta, and Broadcom falling over 1%. Investor concerns about the potential impact of artificial intelligence on traditional industries have heightened risk-averse sentiment [3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. January CPI year-on-year decreased from 2.7% to 2.4%, the lowest since May 2025, while the core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021. The core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, slightly above December's 0.2% increase [9][10]. - Following the CPI report, traders increased their expectations for interest rate cuts this year, with a 50% chance of three cuts by year-end. The probability of a cut in April is 30%, and over 80% for June [10]. Company-Specific News - Meituan issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of approximately RMB 233 billion to RMB 243 billion for the fiscal year 2025, a stark contrast to a net profit of RMB 358.08 billion in 2024. This represents a significant reversal of nearly RMB 600 billion [16][18]. - The core reason for Meituan's drastic performance change is the profit collapse in its most profitable segment, "core local business," which is expected to incur an operating loss of RMB 68 billion to RMB 70 billion in 2025, compared to an operating profit of RMB 524.15 billion in 2024. This is attributed to unprecedented competition in the industry and strategic increases in ecosystem investments [18][20]. - Meituan plans to increase investments in marketing, rider incentives, and operational efficiency to counteract the losses, while also expanding its overseas business [20]. Market Sentiment and Trends - The Hang Seng Tech Index has shown weakness, declining 6.26% since February, influenced by liquidity shocks. Analysts suggest that the fundamentals and bullish logic for the Hong Kong tech sector remain unchanged [21]. - The performance of the Hang Seng Tech Index in February may be driven by macroeconomic data, policy pricing, and earnings verification, with U.S. inflation and employment data being key factors affecting valuation elasticity in Hong Kong tech stocks [21].

RT Bloomberg Live (@BloombergLive)We welcome @PIMCO Managing Director and President Christian Stracke to the #BloombergInvest Dubai program.Register here 📈https://t.co/4cd6EsJPro https://t.co/O8WSGetYGk ...

Group 1 - The trend of moving investments away from US assets is gaining momentum, with firms like BlackRock and PIMCO indicating a shift towards emerging markets due to unpredictable US policies [3][4] - The Israel ETF has seen a significant increase of 43%, while other markets like Brazil and emerging markets have also performed well, suggesting a broader global investment interest [2] - Institutional investors in various countries are increasingly investing in their own markets rather than sending capital to the US, indicating a shift in investment strategies [9] Group 2 - The US dollar has weakened by 9% over the past year, which is influencing investment decisions and contributing to the diversification away from US assets [11] - The global investment landscape is evolving, with many countries implementing market reforms to strengthen their capital markets, making them more attractive to investors [8] - The discussion around potential interest rate cuts in the US contrasts with the situation overseas, highlighting differing economic conditions that may affect investment flows [10]

>> ALL RIGHT. WELCOME BACK. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE SO-CALLED SELL US TRADE.MAYBE YOU SAY IT'S GETTING LOUDER IN CERTAIN AREAS. JUST AS A REMINDER, AS I MENTIONED GOING TO BREAK LAST YEAR THE OUTSIDE THE US TRADE TROUNCED THE INSIDE THE US TRADE BY THE WIDEST MARGIN IN A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. GIVE YOU AN IDEA.THE ISRAEL ETF UP 43%, S&P WAS UP 16.5%, BRAZIL 41, EMERGING MARKETS 31, JAPAN 26 AND THE FTSE IN LONDON UP 21. SO THAT GIVES YOU AT LEAST AN IDEA. THEN WE HEARD A WEEK AGO OR SO THAT BLACKROCK'S RICK RIED ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic sector is rated as "downward" [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy has started to decline since the end of 2025 due to a series of wrong policies in the US [3] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major global assets [3] - Wash's combination of interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction indicates a major shift in Fed's monetary policy, which will lead to a strong expectation of liquidity contraction for equity assets [3] - There are significant risks in the US financial market, including potential capital controls, a possible stock market crash, and a negative impact on consumption [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic Situation - Hedge funds have been net - selling US stocks for four consecutive weeks, with the most intense selling since early April last year [1][2] - Geopolitical tensions and capital market volatility put the world on the verge of a "capital war", and the US may face capital control risks [2] - The expected balance - sheet reduction policy of the Fed's incoming chairman Wash has a strong negative impact on global equity and commodity assets [2] - The uncertainty of the Fed is expected to peak from July to November 2026, which may lead to a "flight from US assets" trend [2] - The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US is adjusting its economic relations with China and trying to revive its economic autonomy [2] - Consumer spending in the US shows a K - shaped divergence, with high - income consumers remaining resilient while middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [2] Stock Market Conditions - The short - selling volume of single - stocks reached a record high last week, and the short - selling scale was twice the long - buying scale from January 30 to February 5 [1] - Anxiety about AI reshaping the US economy led to a sell - off on Wall Street, with a total of $611 billion in market value evaporating from 164 stocks in the software, financial services, and asset management sectors last week [1] - Funds are flowing from tech stocks to defensive sectors, and investors should be wary of subsequent sharp fluctuations [1][2] - The Nasdaq futures rebounded after breaking through the six - month moving average, which is a technical pull - back and may trigger a new round of large - scale tech stock selling [3] Commodity Market Conditions - The core driving force of this round of commodity market is a "hard - asset rotation" from global investment portfolios, which can significantly boost commodity prices in the short term [1] Private Credit Market Conditions - AI's disruption of the software industry has impacted the private credit market, causing the stock prices of institutions like Ares and KKR to plummet [1] - UBS warns that if the disruption accelerates, the private credit default rate may soar to 13% [1] Space - related News - Musk has shifted SpaceX's focus from going to Mars to building a city on the moon, which is expected to be achieved within 10 years, while going to Mars will take more than 20 years [1] Monetary Policy Expectations - PIMCO's global economic advisor believes that Wash may adjust the forward guidance, balance sheet, credit allocation, and mortgage - related areas [1] - Wash may not provide forward guidance on monetary policy and may support two or even three 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue in Q4 2025 decreased by 28%, with HDMC revenue down 10% and HDFS revenue down 59% [25] - Consolidated operating income for Q4 was a loss of $361 million, compared to a loss of $193 million in Q4 2024 [26] - For the full year 2025, consolidated revenue was $4.5 billion, a 14% decrease compared to the previous year, and operating income was $387 million, down from $417 million in 2024 [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HDMC retail performance saw North American sales of new motorcycles increase by 5% in Q4, while international sales decreased by 10%, leading to a global retail sales decline of 1% [27][28] - HDFS revenue for Q4 was $106 million, down from $257 million in the prior year, primarily due to lower retail and wholesale finance receivables [38] - LiveWire's consolidated revenue increased by 9% in Q4, driven by a 61% increase in electric motorcycle units [42] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American retail sales for the full year 2025 were down 13%, while EMEA retail sales declined by 11% [28][30] - In Latin America, Q4 retail sales increased by 10%, with both Brazil and Mexico showing growth [30] - Asia-Pacific retail sales were down 15% for the full year, with significant weakness in China [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on stabilizing the business by restoring dealer confidence and aligning wholesale activity with retail demand [6][12] - Immediate priorities include improving dealer profitability, reigniting brand momentum, and reducing costs [7] - A strategic plan is expected to be announced in May 2026, aiming for sustainable growth and improved dealer relationships [4][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged that 2025 was a challenging year, with macro-driven pressures and internal challenges [4] - The company expects 2026 to be a transition year as it resets the business and finalizes its new strategy [12] - Margins are anticipated to be under pressure in the near term due to production runs being below wholesale [13] Other Important Information - Dealer inventory at the end of Q4 was down 17% compared to the previous year, exceeding the target reduction of 10% [30] - The company is conducting a thorough review of its cost base and operating expenses to align with current demand [20] - A dividend of $1 billion was facilitated from HDFS to HDI in Q4, with further dividends expected [45] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about HDFS operating income expectations - Management indicated that HDFS operating income for 2026 is expected to be between $45 million and $60 million, with a long-term view of potentially tripling that figure [53][54] Question: Wholesale guidance and inventory levels - Management noted that Q1 2026 wholesale shipments are expected to be down slightly, with a potential increase in Q2 as dealers are positioned for the season [60][63] Question: Retail sales expectations and LiveWire investment - Management expressed optimism about retail sales growth in 2026, particularly with new model introductions, while also confirming continued investment in LiveWire despite potential losses [66][68]

If Kevin Warsh becomes Fed chair there could be major market implications. How will Trump's nomination balance independence with politics?@RichardClarida, former Fed vice-chair and now global economic advisor to PIMCO, joins @thestalwart and @tracyalloway on the Odd Lots podcast to discuss how the next Fed chair may influence members of the Fed board and what we know about Warsh's policy stances so far https://t.co/qoGXjc1GMM ...

Core Viewpoint - Rich Clarida, former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, anticipates significant adjustments in the Federal Reserve's policy framework under Kevin Walsh's leadership, particularly in forward guidance, balance sheet management, and credit allocation [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - Clarida identifies three main areas for potential policy adjustments: forward guidance, balance sheet management, and credit allocation related to mortgages [2]. - Walsh has expressed concerns over the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and has criticized the reliance on forward guidance, suggesting it may create confusion regarding future monetary policy [2]. - Walsh's proposal for a new "Treasury-Fed Agreement" aims to facilitate collaboration between the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and mortgage agencies in reducing the balance sheet size [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations and Inflation Considerations - Clarida notes that Walsh is likely to support at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3%-3.25%, as the market has largely priced in these cuts [3]. - There is potential for a third rate cut, which could lower the target range to 2.75%-3%, depending on inflation expectations [3]. - Walsh's approach may become more cautious after the initial rate cuts, particularly if inflation expectations rise significantly above current levels [3]. Group 3: Communication Policy Changes - The most significant difference in the "Walsh Fed" compared to previous chairs will be in communication policy, with a likely reduction in detailed forward guidance on future interest rate paths [4][5]. - Clarida references historical precedents where the Fed successfully maintained price stability and supported growth without extensive forward guidance, suggesting a potential shift in communication strategy [5]. - Walsh will need to collaborate with the Federal Reserve's committee to implement these reforms, with Clarida highlighting positive economic indicators such as technology capital spending and tax policy benefits [5].

If Kevin Warsh becomes Fed chair there could be major market implications. How will Trump's nomination balance independence with politics?@RichardClarida, former Fed vice-chair and now global economic advisor to PIMCO, joins @thestalwart and @tracyalloway on the Odd Lots podcast to discuss how the next Fed chair may influence members of the Fed board and what we know about Warsh's policy stances so far https://t.co/qoGXjc1GMM ...