数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 技术面，持仓减量价格回升，空头氛围减弱，关注12900阻力。操作上，建议暂时观望，或前期多单持有。 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 不锈钢产业日报 2025-10-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12815 | 5 11-12月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -15 | -15 -2905 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restrictions increase the cost of nickel resource supply, the growth of Indonesian ferronickel production slows down, and domestic production gradually declines. Recently, the price of ferronickel has rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs. On the supply side, although the production profit of steel mills has shrunk, with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season and the gradual increase in infrastructure and real - estate demand, the production schedule of stainless - steel mills still increases. On the demand side, infrastructure construction in October is expected to speed up, combined with the favorable fiscal investment policies in China, and anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. Market procurement demand is resilient, and domestic inventories continue to decline. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or hold previous long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,710 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45; the price difference between the October - November contracts is 495 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 110. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 10,699 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 630; the position volume of the main contract is 179,530 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 8,802. The warehouse receipt quantity is 74,376 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 121 [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of 304 scrap stainless steel in Wuxi is 9,250 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the SS main contract is 505 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 70 [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 21,700 metal tons, with a decrease of 300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, with an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, with an increase of 211,200 tons. The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,100 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 400 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 935 yuan/nickel point, with a decrease of 5 yuan/nickel point. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, with an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 583,600 tons, with an increase of 200 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, with an increase of 55.9799 million square meters. The monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 267,000 units; the monthly production of excavators is 6,900 units, with an increase of 2,900 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 9,000 units, with a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The US President Trump said he would visit China early next year, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded that there was no information to provide for the time being. The Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao had video talks with EU officials on issues such as export control and the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles, and also talked with the Dutch economic minister about issues such as Nexperia. A Reuters survey shows that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain [2].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 不锈钢产业日报 2025-09-24 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 仓下降价格调整，多空交投分歧，关注MA60支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或逢低轻仓做多。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12895 | 5 10-11月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -125 | -5 -7187 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -7775 | 3492 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 116704 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 88233 | -775 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13800 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9550 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support has weakened as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently, though the production profit of steel mills has improved notably due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively small rise in raw material costs, and the steel production in August is expected to increase [2]. - As the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies. Anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, leading to an increase in market purchasing willingness and the release of previously accumulated orders. Meanwhile, holders are more willing to sell, the domestic market is in a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable [2]. - Technically, the position is stable while the price is adjusting, with differences between long and short positions. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [2]. 3. Directory Summaries Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,910 yuan/ton, with a 50 - yuan increase; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 125 yuan/ton, with a 10 - yuan increase; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13,880 lots, with a 3,480 - lot increase; the main contract position is 130,017 lots, with a 1,168 - lot decrease; the warehouse receipt quantity is 89,377 tons, with a 355 - ton decrease [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B cut - edge coils in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SS main contract basis is 510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, with a 1,120 - ton increase; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,000 metal tons, with a 200 - metal - ton decrease; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, with a 21,018.74 - ton increase; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 835,900 tons, with a 205,500 - ton decrease; the SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,700 yuan/ton, with a 50 - yuan decrease; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, with a 26,900 - ton decrease [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless steel production is 1.7379 million tons, with a 39,800 - ton increase; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 558,800 tons, with a 5,200 - ton decrease; the monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, with a 29,500 - ton decrease [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 35.206 million square meters, with a 4.84168 million - square - meter increase; the monthly excavator production is 24,700 units, with a 2,100 - unit decrease; the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 19,800 units, with a 1,900 - unit decrease; the monthly production of small tractors is 10,000 units, unchanged [2]. Industry News - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari thinks it is appropriate to cut rates twice more this year [2]. - ECB President Lagarde says the ECB has reached its inflation target but uncertainties remain; ECB Governing Council member Scicluna believes the current interest rate level is appropriate and the central bank can handle downside risks; Governing Council member Stournaras thinks the current interest rate is in a good balance and no further easing is needed [2]. - On the raw material side, Indonesia's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, but the production capacity of Indonesian ferronickel is accelerating its release, and production has rebounded significantly [2].

不锈钢产业日报 2025-09-17 单有所释放；同时持货商出货意愿较高，国内市场保持去库趋势，现货升水持稳。技术面，持仓减量价格 回调，多空交投分歧，关注下方MA60支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或逢低轻仓做多。 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12935 | -35 10-11月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -95 | 20 | | 期货市场 | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -16799 | 44 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 127750 | -3036 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 95265 | -480 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) ...

单有所释放；同时持货商出货意愿较高，国内市场保持去库趋势，现货升水持稳。技术面，持仓增量价格 调整，多空交投分歧，关注MA5支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或逢回调轻仓做多。 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 免责声明 不锈钢产业日报 2025-09-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 13070 | 120 10-11月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -110 | -20 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -15039 | 1759 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 133829 | 7543 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 96349 | -600 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13800 | 100 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9600 | 0 | ...

镍&不锈钢：受印尼暴乱罢工情绪影响上行 9月1日风险管理日报 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.8-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 不锈钢区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.25-1.31 | 9.27% | 1.8% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 沪镍风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产品销售价格下 跌，库存有减值 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现 货下跌风险 | NI主 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Stainless Steel Industry Daily Report 2025-08-20 [1] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03123381 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0019878 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support has weakened as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently. The production profit of steel mills has improved notably due to the increase in steel prices and the weaker increase in raw material costs. Steel mill output is expected to increase in August. At the demand end, as the traditional off - season for downstream consumption nears its end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, leading to a recovery in market purchasing willingness and the release of previously积压 orders. Meanwhile, holders have a high willingness to sell, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, with the decline in positions and prices, the bullish sentiment has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see for now. [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,820 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. The spread between the 09 - 10 contracts is - 65 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,184 lots, an increase of 4,045 lots. The position of the main contract is 135,764 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 119,769 tons, a decrease of 2,334 tons. [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the SS main contract is 400 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 120,900 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units. - In August, the LPR quotes remained unchanged: the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR was 3%. [2] Industry News - At the raw material end, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy issuance restrictions have increased the cost of nickel resource supply. However, the ferronickel production capacity in Indonesia has accelerated its release, and the output has rebounded significantly. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have further regulated the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curbed low - price disorderly competition. - On August 18, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in New Delhi. They had positive, constructive, and forward - looking discussions on bilateral, regional, and international issues of common concern and reached 10 achievements. [2] Key Points to Focus On - No key news today. [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The raw material cost support has weakened as the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply and raises costs, but the rapid release of Indonesian ferronickel production capacity has led to a significant rebound in output and a notable decline in ferronickel prices recently [2]. - The production profit of steel mills has improved significantly. Due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, the steel output is expected to increase in August [2]. - At the end of the traditional off - season for downstream consumption, with the optimistic expectation of the peak season from September to October and the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, the market purchasing willingness has recovered, and the backlog of orders has been released. Recently, steel prices have risen, and downstream buyers are mainly purchasing on - demand. The domestic inventory reduction has slowed down, and the spot premium has remained stable [2]. - Technically, with the increase in positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to go long with a light position [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract was 13,225 yuan/ton, a change of 240 yuan; the price difference between the September - October contracts was - 80 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 17,378 lots, an increase of 4,398 lots; the position of the main contract was 135,260 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity was 103,036 tons, an increase of 53 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi was 13,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi was 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract was 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output was 22,600 metal tons, a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel was 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price was 122,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 900 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide was 920 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output was 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.744 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 592,900 tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume was 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators was 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors was 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors was 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, turning from a 0.1% decline in June. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to June, and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, the same as in June [2]. - The US and Russia are seeking a cease - fire agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which will consolidate Russia's controlled territory. Zelensky stated that he firmly rejects territorial concessions, and an agreement without Ukraine's participation will be an "invalid plan" [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support for stainless steel has weakened due to the significant decline in ferronickel prices recently, despite the increased cost of nickel resources from the Indonesian government's PNBP policy and the accelerated release of Indonesian ferronickel production [2]. - On the supply side, steel mills are facing increased cost - inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board, leading to greater production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may also help alleviate the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2]. - On the demand side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainties and pressure on export demand. Downstream buyers are hesitant and less willing to accept high - priced goods, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand [2]. - Domestic stainless steel inventory has entered the destocking cycle, and the decline in inventory has accelerated with continuous production cuts [2]. - Technically, the position volume has decreased, and both bulls and bears are cautious. Attention should be paid to the support level at 12,800. It is recommended to wait and see or take a small long position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,925 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 85 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is 35 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 24,777 lots, a decrease of 1,719 lots. The main contract position volume is 87,475 lots, a decrease of 1,864 lots [2]. - The stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity is 102,925 tons, a decrease of 61 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 245 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly ferronickel production is 22,600 metal tons, a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 3.6行业消息 - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a rate cut in September, although inflation remains a concern [2]. - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value - added tax [2]. - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the release of resources, increasing the cost of nickel supply. However, the production of Indonesian ferronickel has rebounded significantly [2].