能源日报 2025年09月23日 高明宇 首席分析师 F0302201 Z0012038 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】今日原油期货跌幅明显,SC11合约跌2.3%,关于伊拉克官方与库尔德自治区达成23万桶/天出口恢复初 步协议的消息直接令市场承压。随着夏季石油消费旺季的结束,OPEC+增产、增出口周期仍在持续,平衡表显示 四季度市场宽松压力边际放大,且供需最为过剩的时点集中在明年一季度。今明两年的过剩幅度或量化在164万 桶/天、267万桶/天。原油市场中期空头趋势并未结束，预估布伦特均价将自三季度的68美元/桶回落至63美元/ 桶，SC均价将自500元/桶回落至465元/桶左右。考虑到十一假期前后围绕伊核谈判、像乌冲突的地缘博弈风险 仍有发酵空间,此前高位空单与看涨期权相结合的策略可继续持有。 【然料油&低硫燃料油】高硫需求回落,8月中国进口量环比显著下滑,反映炼化需求支撑减弱，叠加中东北非 她区夏季发电需求消退,同时中东到港量增加、俄罗斯出货 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] Report's Core Views - The bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, with the estimated average price of Brent crude oil in Q4 dropping from $67/barrel in Q3 to $63/barrel. The medium - term strategy is mainly to short on rallies, but there are geopolitical risks around the Iran nuclear negotiation and supply disruption risks from Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities [1]. - Fuel oil is following the downward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has weak demand (delayed power generation demand and potential weakening of bunker demand due to tariffs) and sufficient supply (increased Middle - East arrivals and stable Russian shipments). Geopolitical risks may support high - sulfur prices in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has reduced inflow of Western arbitrage cargoes, but the shutdown of a Nigerian RFCC device may push low - sulfur oil to Asia. The third batch of export quotas is lower than expected, but the quota utilization rate is low, so the impact on supply and demand is limited [2]. - Asphalt has a relatively small decline among oil products. The weekly shipment volume has increased significantly. There is pre - holiday rush - work demand in the north. The October production plans of refineries show a significant year - on - year increase. The overall inventory level has decreased, and the futures price shows a slightly bullish consolidation pattern [2]. - The self - use of liquefied petroleum gas in refineries has increased, squeezing the external supply. Typhoon weather affects imports in the South China region, and the arrival volume in the East China region is still low. The overall consumption has increased slightly. The marginal improvement in supply and demand and the expected improvement in import cost support the market price floor, and the LPG market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The bearish trend in the crude oil market has not ended, and the estimated Q4 average price of Brent crude oil will drop from $67/barrel in Q3 to $63/barrel. The medium - term strategy is to short on rallies, and short positions should be combined with out - of - the - money call options due to geopolitical and supply disruption risks [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: Demand is weak, and supply is sufficient, but geopolitical risks may support prices in the short - term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Western arbitrage cargo inflow has decreased, but Nigerian factors may push low - sulfur oil to Asia. Export quotas have limited impact on supply and demand [2]. Asphalt - The decline is relatively small among oil products. The weekly shipment volume has increased. There is pre - holiday rush - work demand in the north. The October production plan shows a year - on - year increase. The overall inventory has decreased, and the futures price is in a slightly bullish consolidation pattern [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Refinery self - use has increased, squeezing external supply. Typhoon affects imports in the South China region, and the East China arrival volume is low. Overall consumption has increased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3].

Core Viewpoint - Iran's First Vice President, Aref, stated that Iran is open to direct nuclear negotiations with the U.S. if conditions are suitable, but finds the U.S. demand for Iran to completely abandon uranium enrichment to be absurd [1] Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - Iran has expressed willingness to build mutual trust and prepare for negotiations under "balanced conditions" [1] - Since April, five rounds of indirect negotiations mediated by Oman have taken place, but significant disagreements remain on several core issues [1] - The sixth round of talks, scheduled for June 15, was canceled due to an Israeli attack on Iran [1] Group 2: Historical Context - In 2015, Iran reached a comprehensive nuclear agreement with the U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China, and Germany [1] - The U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and subsequently reinstated and escalated unilateral sanctions against Iran [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Gold and silver are both given a ★★★ rating, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities at present [1] Group 2: Core Views - Today, precious metals are oscillating with a slight upward trend. Recently, global geopolitical risks have cooled down, risk sentiment is positive, the US economy is resilient, and a work plan for stabilizing growth in key industries such as non-ferrous metals in China is about to be introduced. Industrial products are rising excitedly in rotation, there is insufficient upward driving force for gold, and there is still room for the gold-silver ratio to decline. The uncertainty before the deadline of US tariff policy remains high, risk sentiment is prone to fluctuations, and precious metals are mainly in an oscillating and wait-and-see state [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Content Tariff - The US Commerce Secretary is confident of reaching an agreement with the EU, and small countries need to pay a 10% benchmark tariff starting from August 1st. The EU is preparing a retaliatory plan under the tough US trade stance. Trump has increased pressure on the EU, with the minimum tariff possibly rising to 15%-20%. The US-Japan trade agreement is still within the "realm of possibility", and the Pakistani Finance Minister is in the US to promote the signing of a trade agreement [2] Fed - Trump believes that high interest rates are "killing the real estate market" and has reiterated that interest rates should be lowered to 1%. An insider said that Treasury Secretary Bessent advised Trump not to remove Powell. Waller refused to comment on whether he would hold a different opinion at the July meeting and said he would accept if the president asked him to be the Fed Chairman. Goolsbee is "slightly worried" that tariffs are pushing up commodity inflation and expects interest rates to drop significantly in the next year [2] Iran Nuclear Negotiations - Iran has agreed to hold a new round of negotiations with three European countries at the deputy foreign minister level in Istanbul on the 25th. Putin met with a senior advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader to discuss the Iran nuclear issue. Trump reiterated that all three Iranian nuclear facilities have been completely destroyed [2]

Economic Developments - The U.S. Commerce Secretary expressed confidence in reaching an agreement with the EU, with a baseline tariff of 10% set to begin on August 1 [11][12] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce anticipates that the total retail sales of consumer goods in China will exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [14][18] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a growth stabilization plan for ten key industries, including steel and petrochemicals [14][15] Market Performance - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.155% to 98.46, while U.S. Treasury yields declined across the board, with the 10-year yield at 4.423% and the 2-year yield at 3.88% [3][4] - International oil prices experienced volatility, with WTI crude oil closing at $66 per barrel, down 0.47%, and Brent crude at $68.59 per barrel, down 0.45% [4][8] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 1.33% to close at 24,825.66, with a trading volume of 238.69 billion yuan [5][8] Corporate News - The court hearing for the Wahaha family property dispute is scheduled for August 1 in Hong Kong [16] - The Chinese government is taking measures to combat the smuggling and export of strategic minerals [14][18] - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the U.S. approval of Nvidia's H20 chip sales to China, emphasizing the need for a cooperative environment for mutual benefit [14][18]

Group 1: Gaza Conflict - New round of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza is on the verge of collapse according to Palestinian officials [3] - Israeli military has issued strict restrictions prohibiting fishing and maritime activities in the coastal areas of Gaza [3] - 86% of Gaza has been designated as Israeli military zones or forced evacuation areas by UN agencies [3] - Israeli officials claim that Hamas is undermining the ceasefire negotiation process [3] - Israeli airstrikes targeted Hamas underground facilities in northern Gaza [3] - Palestinian media reports indicate that Israeli attacks in multiple locations in Gaza have resulted in at least 60 deaths [3] - Israeli military actions in Gaza have led to over 70 deaths as of July 12 [3] Group 2: Iran's Position - Iranian Foreign Minister states that cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) continues, but Iran will adopt different forms due to recent developments [2] - Iran is carefully evaluating options for negotiations with the United States, emphasizing that Washington must provide guarantees if talks resume [2] - Reports from The Wall Street Journal indicate that President Trump hinted at supporting Israeli strikes against Iran if Iran seeks to develop nuclear weapons [2] - Iranian Supreme Leader's advisor mentions that Iran has received information from the U.S. regarding the resumption of nuclear negotiations [3] - Iranian Foreign Minister asserts that Iran will continue to uphold its right to uranium enrichment [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Middle East envoy, Wittekov, plans to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif in Oslo next week to restart nuclear negotiations, marking the first direct talks since military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities ordered by Trump [1] - Iranian officials have expressed openness to negotiations with Washington, but reiterated that Iran has no plans to halt uranium enrichment [1][2] - The recent military actions have resulted in significant casualties, with reports of dozens of Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists killed, and nearly 1,000 total casualties, including children [2] Group 2 - Iran has been enriching uranium to 60%, close to the 90% needed for nuclear weapons, raising concerns from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) [3] - Iranian officials maintain that their uranium enrichment policy remains unchanged and assert their right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) [3][4] - There are uncertainties regarding the whereabouts of 880 pounds of high-enriched uranium, with Iranian officials declining to comment on its status [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent U.S. military action against Iran's nuclear facilities marks a significant escalation in U.S.-Iran relations, potentially hindering future nuclear negotiations and increasing regional instability [1][2][5] - The U.S. aims to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities, with President Trump stating that further attacks could occur if peace is not achieved quickly [2][5] - Iran's response to the U.S. strikes has been relatively restrained, focusing primarily on retaliating against Israel rather than direct attacks on U.S. targets [3][5] Group 2 - The Israeli military has increased its readiness and conducted airstrikes against Iranian military targets, indicating a broader regional conflict [4][5] - The Houthis in Yemen have condemned the U.S. actions and announced a resumption of attacks on U.S. vessels in the Red Sea, reflecting the wider implications of U.S.-Iran tensions [6]

Group 1 - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated significantly, with both sides suffering casualties, including 224 deaths on the Iranian side and 24 on the Israeli side [1][2] - Israel's airstrikes targeted multiple Iranian nuclear facilities and military sites, indicating a strategic aim to weaken Iran's military and nuclear capabilities [8][9] - The ongoing conflict has drawn global attention, particularly regarding the implications for U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, which Iran has withdrawn from due to the attacks [2][6] Group 2 - Israel's military actions are seen as a response to perceived threats from Iran's nuclear ambitions, with Israeli leadership emphasizing the need for absolute security [6][9] - The conflict has potential implications for regional power dynamics, with Israel's military strength likely to increase, affecting its relationships with neighboring countries [25][26] - The situation remains fluid, with both sides preparing for prolonged engagement, and the potential for further escalation is high [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing military confrontation between Iran and Israel has escalated from "remote confrontation" to "direct attacks," with both sides demonstrating strong offensive capabilities but significant defensive weaknesses, necessitating external support for both parties [2][4]. Group 1: Military Actions - Since June 13, Israel has conducted large-scale airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets, resulting in significant casualties [2]. - Iran has retaliated with ballistic missiles and drones, launching approximately 100 missiles in one attack and planning to increase this number to 4,000 in future strikes [4][5]. - Both Iran and Israel have engaged in multiple rounds of airstrikes against each other's critical infrastructure, including oil production and military facilities [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Analysis - Both Iran and Israel exhibit strong offensive capabilities; however, they have notable defensive shortcomings. Israel's air defense systems are insufficient against large-scale missile attacks, while Iran's missile capabilities pose a continuous threat [4][5]. - The tactical balance between the two nations has reached a point where their offensive capabilities are somewhat equalized, despite Iran's missile costs being significantly higher than Israel's interception costs [5]. Group 3: International Implications - The conflict has broader implications for global energy, shipping, and financial systems, potentially leading to international chain reactions [2]. - The U.S. has canceled the sixth round of nuclear negotiations with Iran, indicating a shift in diplomatic efforts due to the escalating conflict [6]. - There are indications that the U.S. may apply pressure on Iran to return to negotiations, but Iran remains firm on its nuclear rights and is unlikely to compromise easily [6][9].