那就，。 本期微观交易温度计读数继续回升至 57% 本期机构杠杆、政策利差、债基止盈压力、股债比价、全市场换手率分位置上升 48、18、18、16、12 个百分点，TL/T 多空比、商品比价分位置也上升 11 个百分点。但是基金-中小行买入量、长期国债成交占比、上市公司理财买入量分 位值分别下降 33、18、15 个百分点。当前拥挤度较高的指标包括 30/10Y 国债换手率、1/10Y 国债换手率、TL/T 多空 比、债基止盈压力。 ①交易热度中，TL/T 多空比、全市场换手率、机构杠杆分位值分别上升 11、12、48 个百分点，长期国债成交占比分 位值下降 18 个百分点，因此交易热度分位均值上升 8 个百分点。②机构行为类指标中，债基止盈压力分位值上升 18 个百分点，其余指标分位值多不同程度回落，其中基金-中小行买入量分位值大幅下降 33 个百分点，因此机构行为分 位均值回落 5 个百分点。③市场利差分位值下降 4 个百分点，政策利差分位值则大幅回升 18 个百分点，利差分位均 值上升 7 个百分点。④股债、商品、不动产比价分位值分别上升 16、11、8 个百分点，比价分位均值上升 9 个百分点。 长期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The reading of the bond market micro - trading thermometer has rebounded to 48%, an increase of 8 percentage points from the previous period. Most indicator quantiles have risen, with only a few showing a decline [13]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has increased to 25%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number in the over - heated range has risen to 5 (25%), in the neutral range to 8 (40%), and in the cold range has decreased to 7 (35%) [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1.本期微观交易温度计读数转为回升至 48% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" has rebounded 8 percentage points to 48%. Only the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, fund divergence, and market interest rate quantile have dropped by 8, 2, and 1 percentage points respectively, while others have increased to varying degrees [13]. 3.2.本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比升至 25% - **Transaction Heat Indicators**: The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, and the proportion in the neutral range remains 50%, with the proportion in the cold range dropping to 0%. The TL/T long - short ratio has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, and most other indicator quantiles have slightly rebounded [18]. - **Institutional Behavior Indicators**: The proportions of indicators in the over - heated, neutral, and cold ranges remain 25%, 25%, and 50% respectively. The trading - allocation buying volume quantile has increased by 22 percentage points, and the quantiles of money tightness expectation, allocation disk strength, and listed company wealth management buying volume have also slightly rebounded [22]. - **Interest Rate Spread**: The policy interest rate spread has narrowed by 3bp to 3bp, with the quantile rising by 20 percentage points to 54% and moving from the cold range to the neutral range. The credit spread has widened by 2bp to 54bp, the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread has narrowed by 1bp to - 1bp, and the Agricultural Development - Guokai spread remains flat. The average of the three spreads remains at 17bp, and its quantile has slightly dropped by 1 percentage point to 59%, still in the neutral range [27]. - **Price Ratio**: The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range has dropped to 75%, and in the neutral range has increased to 25%. The commodity price - ratio quantile has rebounded by 16 percentage points to 34%, moving from the cold range to the neutral range. The stock - bond and real - estate price - ratio quantiles have also rebounded by 3 and 14 percentage points respectively [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 3 percentage points to 40%. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 20%, while the proportion in the neutral range increased to 30%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 50%. The average value of institutional behavior quantiles increased [14][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. This period's micro - trading thermometer reading continued to decline to 40% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 3 percentage points to 40%. TL/T long - short ratio, policy spread, and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume quantiles decreased by 54, 42, and 27 percentage points respectively. Real estate price ratio, fund ultra - long - term bond buying volume, and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantiles also declined to varying degrees. Allocation strength and listed company wealth management buying volume quantiles increased by 41 and 33 percentage points respectively, and the quantiles of indicators such as the whole - market turnover rate and market spread slightly rebounded [14]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 20% - Among 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 4 (20%), the number in the neutral range increased to 6 (30%), and the number in the cold range remained at 10 (50%). TL/T long - short ratio and policy spread dropped from the over - heated range to the cold range; fund ultra - long - term bond buying volume dropped from the neutral range to the cold range; allocation strength rose from the neutral range to the over - heated range; listed company wealth management buying volume and the whole - market turnover rate rose from the cold range to the neutral range [18]. - The average value of institutional behavior quantiles increased. In trading heat, only the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and TL/T long - short ratio quantiles decreased by 6 and 54 percentage points respectively, driving the average trading heat quantile down by 5 percentage points. In institutional behavior indicators, allocation strength and listed company wealth management buying volume increased by 41 and 33 percentage points respectively, driving the average institutional behavior quantile up by 3 percentage points. The market spread quantile increased by 14 percentage points, and the policy spread quantile decreased by 42 percentage points, driving the average spread quantile down by 14 percentage points. The real estate price ratio quantile decreased by 16 percentage points, driving the average price ratio quantile down by 2 percentage points [18]. 3.2.1. TL/T long - short ratio dropped to the cold range - In trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 33%, the proportion in the neutral range increased to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 17%. The TL/T long - short ratio quantile decreased by 54 percentage points, dropping from the over - heated range to the cold range. The whole - market turnover rate quantile rebounded by 16 percentage points, rising from the cold range to the neutral range [19]. 3.2.2. Allocation strength rebounded - In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 25%, the proportion in the neutral range remained at 25%, and the proportion in the cold range decreased to 50%. The fund ultra - long - term bond buying volume quantile decreased by 14 percentage points, dropping from the neutral range to the cold range. Allocation strength and listed company wealth management buying volume quantiles increased by 41 and 33 percentage points to 84% and 56% respectively, with the former rising to the over - heated range and the latter to the neutral range [25]. 3.2.3. Policy spread dropped from the over - heated range to the cold range - The yield of 3 - year Treasury bonds rose 8bp, and the policy spread widened 8bp to 6bp. The corresponding quantile continued to decline 42 percentage points to 34%, dropping from the over - heated range to the cold range. The credit spread and agricultural development - state - owned bank spread narrowed by 9bp and 2bp to 52bp and - 1bp respectively, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened 2bp to 0bp. The average of the three spreads narrowed 3bp to 17bp, and its quantile rebounded 14 percentage points to 60%, remaining in the neutral range [30]. 3.2.4. Real estate price ratio quantile continued to decline - The proportion of price ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. The stock - bond and commodity price ratio quantiles rebounded by 5 and 1 percentage points respectively, while the real estate price ratio quantile dropped significantly by 16 percentage points [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the bond market micro - trading thermometer dropped to 40%, possibly affected by the light trading before the New Year's Day holiday. Most indicator quantiles declined, while a few increased. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 25%, with changes in the distribution of indicators across different intervals [14][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading Drops to 40% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 6 percentage points to 40%. Most indicator quantiles declined, such as institutional leverage, 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate, etc., while some like bond fund profit - taking pressure increased [14]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range Remains at 25% - Among 20 micro - indicators, 5 (25%) were in the over - heated range, 5 (25%) in the neutral range, and 10 (50%) in the cold range. Some indicators changed their intervals, like 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate and institutional leverage moving from over - heated to neutral, and long - term Treasury trading proportion moving from neutral to over - heated [18]. - The average value of various spreads decreased significantly. The trading heat quantile average dropped 16 percentage points, the institutional behavior quantile average dropped 7 percentage points, the spread quantile average dropped 5 percentage points, and the comparison quantile average dropped 4 percentage points [18]. 3.2.1. Institutional Leverage Quantile Drops Significantly - In trading heat indicators, the proportion of over - heated indicators dropped to 50%, neutral to 33%, and cold remained at 17%. Institutional leverage and 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate dropped 57 and 39 percentage points respectively, moving from over - heated to neutral, while long - term Treasury trading proportion rose 18 percentage points, moving from neutral to over - heated [19]. 3.2.2. Bond Fund Profit - taking Pressure Increases - In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of over - heated indicators rose to 13%, neutral dropped to 25%, and cold rose to 63%. Bond fund profit - taking pressure rose 55 percentage points from cold to over - heated, and the expectation of monetary tightness dropped 16 percentage points from neutral to cold [24]. 3.2.3. Spread Quantiles Drop - The policy spread widened by 2bp to - 2bp, with its quantile dropping 6 percentage points to 76%. The market spread quantile dropped 5 percentage points to 46%, remaining in the neutral range [31]. 3.2.4. Real Estate Comparison Quantile Drops Significantly - All comparison indicators were in the cold range. Stock - bond and commodity comparison quantiles dropped 3 and 1 percentage points respectively, and the real estate comparison quantile dropped 14 percentage points [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 9 percentage points from the previous period to 37%. Most of the indicator quantiles declined, with only the quantiles of allocation disk strength, policy spread, commodity price ratio, and market spread rising slightly. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 15%, and the trading heat quantile average decreased significantly [15][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1. This period's micro - trading thermometer reading dropped to 37% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 9 percentage points to 37%. Indicators with large declines included TL/T long - short ratio, fund duration, and 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate, with quantiles decreasing by 55, 41, and 11 percentage points respectively. Only the quantiles of allocation disk strength, policy spread, commodity price ratio, and market spread rose slightly. Currently, the only indicator with high congestion is the 30/10Y Treasury turnover rate [15]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 15% - Among 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 3 (15%), in the neutral range decreased to 5 (25%), and in the cold range increased to 12 (60%). The TL/T long - short ratio and fund duration both dropped from the neutral range to the cold range, and the fund's ultra - long - term bond buying volume dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range [20]. - The trading heat quantile average decreased significantly. In trading heat, the quantiles of TL/T long - short ratio and 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate decreased by 55 and 11 percentage points, driving the trading heat quantile down 16 percentage points. In institutional behavior indicators, the fund duration quantile dropped 41 percentage points, and most other indicator quantiles also declined. Only the quantiles of allocation disk strength and listed company wealth management buying volume rose by 12 and 1 percentage points, and the institutional behavior quantile average decreased 12 percentage points. The market and policy spread quantiles rebounded 3 and 8 percentage points respectively, and the spread quantile average increased 6 percentage points. The commodity price ratio quantile rose 7 percentage points, driving the price ratio quantile average up 2 percentage points [20]. 3.2.1. TL/T long - short ratio decreased significantly - In trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 50%, in the neutral range dropped to 17%, and in the cold range rose to 33%. The TL/T long - short ratio quantile dropped 55 percentage points to 14% and moved from the neutral to the cold range. Other indicator quantiles mostly declined, with the 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate, full - market turnover rate, and institutional leverage quantiles decreasing by 11, 9, and 2 percentage points respectively [23]. 3.2.2. Fund duration decreased rapidly - In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 0%, in the neutral range remained at 25%, and in the cold range rose to 75%. The fund duration quantile dropped 41 percentage points to 18% and moved from the neutral to the cold range. The fund's ultra - long - term bond buying volume quantile dropped 8 percentage points to 69% and moved from the over - heated to the neutral range. Most other indicator quantiles also declined, with only the quantiles of allocation disk strength and listed company wealth management buying volume rising slightly [26]. 3.2.3. The policy spread quantile dropped 8 percentage points - The policy spread narrowed by 2bp to 2bp, and the corresponding quantile rose 8 percentage points to 55%, remaining in the neutral range. The credit spread widened by 3bp to 60bp, the Agricultural Development - CDB spread remained flat at 1bp, the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread narrowed by 2bp to 1bp. The average of the three spreads widened slightly by 1bp to 20bp, and its quantile rebounded 3 percentage points to 50%, still in the neutral range [31]. 3.2.4. The commodity price ratio quantile rose slightly - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. The commodity price ratio quantile rose 7 percentage points to 27%, and the quantiles of other indicators changed little [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro Transaction Thermometer" dropped slightly by 2 percentage points to 50% compared to the previous period. Most of the trading heat - related indicator quantiles declined, while only a few indicator quantiles such as fund divergence, fund - rural commercial bank buying volume, policy spread, and commodity price ratio increased to varying degrees. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 35% [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. This period's micro - transaction thermometer reading dropped to 50% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro Transaction Thermometer" dropped 2 percentage points to 50%. Most trading heat - related indicator quantiles declined, with the 1/10Y and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantiles dropping 12 and 3 percentage points respectively, the full - market turnover rate quantile dropping 12 percentage points, and the institutional leverage quantile dropping 6 percentage points. Only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile rose 27 percentage points. The decline in the listed company wealth - management purchase volume and stock - bond price ratio quantiles was also significant, at 35 and 29 percentage points respectively. Currently, indicators with high congestion levels include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the fund's ultra - long - term bond purchase volume [15]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 35% - Among 20 micro - indicators, 7 (35%) were in the over - heated range, 5 (25%) were in the neutral range, and 8 (40%) were in the cold range. The full - market turnover rate and listed company wealth - management purchase volume dropped from the neutral to the cold range, while the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume rose from the cold to the neutral range. In terms of different types of indicators: - **Trading heat**: The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, full - market turnover rate, institutional leverage, and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantiles dropped 12, 12, 6, and 3 percentage points respectively, and only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile rose 27 percentage points. The average trading heat quantile dropped 1 percentage point [5]. - **Institutional behavior**: The fund - rural commercial bank buying volume and fund divergence quantiles rose 20 and 14 percentage points respectively, while the listed company wealth - management purchase volume quantile dropped 35 percentage points. The average institutional behavior quantile was basically flat compared to the previous period [5]. - **Spread**: The market spread rose 1 percentage point, and the policy spread quantile rose 5 percentage points. The average spread quantile rose 3 percentage points [5]. - **Price ratio**: The stock - bond price ratio quantile dropped significantly by 29 percentage points, and the commodity price ratio quantile rose 6 percentage points. The average price ratio quantile dropped 6 percentage points [5]. 3.2.1. The full - market turnover rate dropped to the cold range - In trading heat - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 67%, the proportion in the neutral range dropped to 17%, and the proportion in the cold range rose to 17%. The full - market turnover rate quantile dropped 12 percentage points from the neutral to the cold range. Only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile rose 27 percentage points to 67% and remained in the neutral range [6]. 3.2.2. The quantile of listed company wealth - management purchase volume dropped significantly - In institutional behavior - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated, neutral, and cold ranges remained at 38%, 25%, and 38% respectively. The fund - rural commercial bank buying volume quantile rose 20 percentage points to 57% and moved from the cold to the neutral range [7]. 3.2.3. The policy spread quantile rose 5 percentage points - The policy spread slightly dropped 1bp to 3bp, and the corresponding quantile rose 5 percentage points to 46%, remaining in the neutral range. The credit spread narrowed 1bp to 49bp, the agricultural development - state development spread remained at 0bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread also remained at 2bp. The average of the three spreads remained at 17bp, and its quantile slightly rose 1 percentage point to 62%, remaining in the neutral range [8]. 3.2.4. The stock - bond price ratio quantile dropped significantly - All price - ratio - related indicators were in the cold range. The stock - bond price ratio quantile dropped 29 percentage points to 0%, the commodity price ratio quantile rose 6 percentage points, and the real - estate and consumer - goods price ratio quantiles remained the same as the previous period [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" rose 4 percentage points to 50%. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 35%. The trading heat index mean rose significantly, while the institutional behavior, spread, and price - ratio index means changed with different trends [3][4][15]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. This period, the micro - trading thermometer reading rebounded to 50% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" continued to rise 4 percentage points to 50%. The trading heat index mean rebounded 20 percentage points, with TL/T long - short ratio, market turnover rate, and institutional leverage percentile values rising 14, 47, and 53 percentage points respectively. Meanwhile, the percentile values of money tightness expectation, stock - bond ratio, and policy spread decreased 22, 17, and 13 percentage points respectively. High - congestion indicators include 30/10Y Treasury turnover rate, institutional leverage, fund duration, and fund ultra - long bond buying volume [3][15]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 35% - Among 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 7 (35%), in the neutral range decreased to 6 (30%), and in the cold range decreased to 7 (35%). The market turnover rate moved from the cold to the neutral range, and institutional leverage moved from the neutral to the over - heated range [4][20]. - **Trading heat**: The 30/10Y Treasury turnover rate remained at 100%. The 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate, TL/T long - short ratio, market turnover rate, and institutional leverage percentile values rebounded 5, 14, 47, and 53 percentage points respectively, and the trading heat index mean rose 20 percentage points [5][20]. - **Institutional behavior**: The percentile values of fund duration, allocation strength, and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume rebounded slightly, while those of fund divergence and money tightness expectation decreased 4 and 22 percentage points respectively. The institutional behavior index mean decreased 1 percentage point [5][20]. - **Spread**: The market spread rebounded 4 percentage points, and the policy spread dropped 13 percentage points. The spread index mean decreased 4 percentage points [5][20]. - **Price - ratio**: The percentile values of stock - bond, commodity, and real - estate price - ratios decreased 17, 5, and 6 percentage points respectively, and the price - ratio index mean decreased 7 percentage points [5][20]. 3.2.1. The institutional leverage percentile value rebounded 53 percentage points - In trading heat indicators, the proportion of over - heated indicators rose to 67%, neutral to 38%, and cold decreased to 25%. The market turnover rate percentile value rose 47 percentage points to 55% and moved to the neutral range, and institutional leverage rose 53 percentage points to 96% and moved to the over - heated range [6][21]. 3.2.2. The money tightness expectation percentile value decreased 22 percentage points - In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of over - heated indicators rose to 38%, neutral decreased to 38%, and cold decreased to 25%. The percentile values of fund divergence, money tightness expectation, and listed company wealth - management buying volume decreased 4, 22, and 4 percentage points respectively, while those of allocation strength and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume rebounded 10 and 8 percentage points respectively [7][25]. 3.2.3. The policy spread percentile value dropped 13 percentage points - The 3 - year Treasury yield rose slightly, the policy spread widened from 1bp to 4bp, and the percentile value dropped 13 percentage points to 41%, remaining in the neutral range. The credit spread narrowed 4bp to 51bp, the agricultural development - state - owned development spread was flat at 0bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened 2bp. The average spread narrowed slightly from 18bp to 17bp, and its percentile value rose 4 percentage points to 60%, still in the neutral range [8][31]. 3.2.4. All price - ratio percentile values declined - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range remained 100%. The stock - bond, commodity, and real - estate price - ratio percentile values declined 17, 5, and 6 percentage points respectively [9][35].

Group 1: Overall Market Conditions - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer this period has rebounded to 34%, a 5 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The turnover rates of 1Y and 30Y treasury bonds increased, while that of 10Y treasury bonds decreased. The percentile values of 30/10Y and 1/10Y treasury bond turnover rates increased by 24 and 86 percentage points respectively, and the percentile value of the TL/T long - short ratio also increased by 13 percentage points. The percentile values of institutional leverage, allocation disk strength, market spread, and listed company wealth management purchase volume increased slightly. The percentile values of fund divergence, stock - bond ratio, and real estate ratio decreased by 14, 10, and 10 percentage points respectively. Currently, the only indicator with high congestion is the long - term treasury bond trading volume ratio [14]. Group 2: Proportion of Indicators in Different Zones - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated zone remains at 15%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated zone remains 3 (15%), the number in the neutral zone increased to 4 (20%), and the number in the cold zone decreased to 13 (65%). The 1/10Y treasury bond turnover rate rose from the cold zone to the over - heated zone, and the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume dropped from the over - heated zone to the cold zone [19]. Group 3: Transaction Heat Indicators - The average percentile value of transaction heat increased significantly. The percentile values of 30/10Y and 1/10Y treasury bond turnover rates increased by 24 and 86 percentage points respectively, and the percentile value of the TL/T long - short ratio increased by 13 percentage points, driving the average percentile value of transaction heat up by 21 percentage points [4]. - In the transaction heat - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated zone rose to 33%, the proportion in the neutral zone remained at 17%, and the proportion in the cold zone dropped to 50%. The percentile values of 30/10Y and 1/10Y treasury bond turnover rates increased by 21 and 86 percentage points respectively. The latter rose from the cold zone to the over - heated zone, while the former remained in the neutral zone [22]. Group 4: Institutional Behavior Indicators - The average percentile value of institutional behavior decreased by 2 percentage points. The percentile values of fund divergence and fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume decreased by 14 and 10 percentage points respectively [4]. - In the institutional behavior - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated zone dropped to 13%, the proportion in the neutral zone rose to 25%, and the proportion in the cold zone remained at 63%. The percentile value of the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume dropped by 10 percentage points to 61% and moved from the over - heated zone to the neutral zone [26]. Group 5: Spread Indicators - The average percentile value of spreads increased slightly by 1 percentage point. The market spread increased by 8 percentage points, and the policy spread decreased by 5 percentage points [4]. - The policy spread widened slightly from 11bp to 13bp, and its percentile value decreased by 5 percentage points to 10%, remaining in the cold zone. The credit spread narrowed by 4bp to 50bp, the agricultural development - state - owned development spread widened slightly by 1bp to -1bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread remained basically flat at 2bp. The average of the three spreads narrowed slightly from 18bp to 17bp, and its percentile value increased by 8 percentage points to 63%, remaining in the neutral zone [7]. Group 6: Ratio Indicators - The average percentile value of ratios decreased by 5 percentage points. The stock - bond and real estate ratio percentile values both decreased by 10 percentage points [4]. - All ratio - related indicators are in the cold zone. The stock - bond and real estate ratio percentile values decreased by 10 percentage points, the commodity ratio percentile value increased slightly by 1 percentage point, and the consumer goods ratio percentile value remained at 0% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 6 percentage points to 31% compared to the previous period, and the indicator quantile value further declined in the cold range. Most indicator quantile values decreased, with only a few showing a slight increase [14]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. This period's micro - trading thermometer reading dropped to 31% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 6 percentage points to 31%, and the indicator quantile value further declined in the cold range. Only the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, the whole - market turnover rate, the allocation disk strength, and the commodity price ratio quantile value increased slightly, while the rest decreased. For example, the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate dropped 23 percentage points, and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume dropped 37 percentage points [14]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the hot range dropped significantly to 5% - Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 1 (5% of the total), the number in the neutral range increased to 8 (40% of the total), and the number in the cold range increased to 11 (55% of the total). The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, the fund's ultra - long - term bond buying volume, and the money tightness expectation all dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range, and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume dropped from the neutral range to the cold range [19]. - The average quantile of various indicators declined. In trading heat, the trading heat average quantile dropped 8 percentage points; in institutional behavior, the institutional behavior average quantile dropped 7 percentage points; in spreads, the spread average quantile dropped 6 percentage points; in price ratios, the price ratio average quantile remained the same as the previous period [19]. 3.2.1. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate dropped to the neutral range - Among the trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 17%, the proportion in the neutral range increased to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 33%. Only the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate dropped 23 percentage points and moved from the over - heated range to the neutral range, while the TL/T long - short ratio and the whole - market turnover rate increased 17 and 15 percentage points respectively [21]. 3.2.2. The allocation disk strength increased slightly due to insurance buying - Among the institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 0%, the proportion in the neutral range increased to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 50%. The fund's ultra - long - term bond buying and the money tightness expectation dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range, and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume dropped from the neutral range to the cold range [23]. 3.2.3. The market and policy spread quantile values both declined - The policy spread widened slightly from 11bp to 14bp, and its quantile value dropped 6 percentage points to 6%, remaining in the cold range. The credit spread, the agricultural development - state - owned development spread, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 4bp, 2bp, and 2bp respectively, and the average spread widened from 18bp to 21bp, with its quantile value dropping 7 percentage points to 48%, remaining in the neutral range [30]. 3.2.4. The stock - bond price ratio quantile value continued to decline slightly - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. The stock - bond price ratio quantile value dropped 2 percentage points, the commodity price ratio quantile value increased 2 percentage points, and the real - estate price ratio quantile value changed little [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer in the bond market this period has increased by 2 percentage points to 43%. Except for trading heat, the average quantile of other indicators has risen. The decline in the average quantile of trading heat is mainly due to the different degrees of decline in the quantile values of relative turnover rate and TL/T long - short ratio. The indicators with a relatively large increase in value include fund divergence, listed company's wealth management purchase volume, real estate price ratio, and policy spread [2][14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remains at 10%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, 2 are in the over - heated range (10%), 11 are in the neutral range (55%), and 7 are in the cold range (35%). Some indicators have changed their ranges [3][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" has increased by 2 percentage points to 43% compared with the previous period. Except for trading heat, the average quantile of other indicators has risen. The decline in the average quantile of trading heat is due to the decline in the quantile values of relative turnover rate and TL/T long - short ratio, while indicators such as fund divergence, listed company's wealth management purchase volume, real estate price ratio, and policy spread have increased significantly [2][14]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - Among the 20 micro - indicators, 2 are in the over - heated range (10%), 11 are in the neutral range (55%), and 7 are in the cold range (35%). The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate has dropped from the neutral range to the cold range, the allocation disk strength has dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range, the policy spread and stock - bond price ratio have risen from the cold range to the neutral range, and the institutional leverage has risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range [3][19]. 3.3. Changes in Different Indicator Categories 3.3.1. Trading Heat Indicators - The average quantile of trading heat indicators has decreased by 7 percentage points. The quantile values of 30/10Y and 1/10Y relative turnover rates have decreased by 43 and 10 percentage points respectively, and the quantile value of TL/T long - short ratio has decreased by 6 percentage points. The quantile values of the whole - market turnover rate and institutional leverage have increased by 7 and 11 percentage points respectively. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 17%, the proportion in the neutral range has dropped to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range has risen to 33%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate has dropped from the neutral range to the cold range, and the institutional leverage has risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range [4][5]. 3.3.2. Institutional Behavior Indicators - The average quantile of institutional behavior indicators has increased by 6 percentage points. Only the quantile values of fund duration and allocation disk strength have decreased by 8 and 4 percentage points respectively, while the quantile values of other indicators have increased to varying degrees. The quantile values of listed company's wealth management purchase volume and fund divergence have increased by 21 and 18 percentage points respectively. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has dropped to 13%, the proportion in the neutral range has risen to 63%, and the proportion in the cold range remains at 25%. The allocation disk strength has dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range [4][6]. 3.3.3. Spread Indicators - The average quantile of spread indicators has increased by 7 percentage points. The market spread and policy spread quantile values have increased by 2 and 12 percentage points respectively. The policy spread has continued to narrow by 4bp to 4bp, and its quantile value has increased by 12 percentage points to 42%, rising from the cold range to the neutral range. The credit spread has widened by 2bp, the Agricultural Development - CDB spread has slightly widened by 1bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread has narrowed by 3bp. The average spread of the three remains basically at 17bp, and its quantile value has increased by 2 percentage points to 44%, remaining in the neutral range [4][7]. 3.3.4. Price Ratio Indicators - The average quantile of price ratio indicators has increased by 7 percentage points. The proportion of indicators in the cold range has dropped to 75%, and the proportion in the neutral range has risen to 25%. The stock - bond price ratio quantile value has continued to increase by 7 percentage points to 40%, and the commodity price ratio and real estate price ratio quantile values have increased by 4 and 16 percentage points respectively, still remaining in the cold range [4][8].