2026 年 2 月远东资信发布研报指出，2025 年保险行业在监管深化、市场变革下迈入格局重塑关键阶段，呈现五大核心特点，而 2026 年行业将沿着四大趋势 继续发展，头部与中小险企分化、业务与投资结构调整成为核心主线。 2025 年保险行业的五大特点体现在行业格局、经营数据、资金配置、偿付能力和资本补充五大维度。其一，监管全渠道推进 "报行合一"，行业马太效应凸 显，银保渠道整体保费下滑但上市险企实现正增长，中小险企受资源限制发展承压。其二，保费收入保持韧性但增速放缓，2025 年总保费 6.12 万亿元同比 增 7.4%，增速较 2024 年降 3.7 个百分点，资产负债错配下保险产品预定利率持续调降，分红险成为市场新选择。其三，保险资金运用余额突破 37.46 万亿 元，债券仍为配置主力（占比 50.3%），但权益资产配置大幅提升，股票投资较 2024 年底增长 50%，政策持续推动险资入市成为重要推手。其四，行业偿 付能力充足率下滑，2025 年三季度末综合偿付能力充足率 186.3%，较 2024 年底降 13.1 个百分点，人身险行业下滑幅度最为明显，财产险行业则呈上升态 势。其五，资本补充步伐 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-12-31 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:王一 SAC 登记编号:S1340125070001 Email:wangyi8@cnpsec.com ⚫ 负债端：规模韧性仍在，但成本下行空间有限 保险负债端整体仍具韧性，保费收入持续增长，为行业资产规模 扩张提供了稳定资金来源。2024 年以来，保费收入保持正增长，带动 保险公司资产总额同步上行，负债规模扩张趋势延续。在存款脱媒背 景下，尽管保险预定利率持续下调，但对资金吸引力的边际影响相对 温和，保费增速有所放缓但未出现趋势性回落。负债成本方面，预定 利率下调主要作用于新增业务，存量业务占比仍高，使成本改善传导 偏慢。财险行业综合成本率小幅下行，分规模分化显著，头部机构凭 借规模与费用管控优势维持成本可控，而中小机构成本压力持续上 行。寿险方面，行业打平收益率整体仍处偏高区间，低预定利率新结 构下，头部及保障型寿险公司盈利韧性相对更强，而中小寿险公司仍 面临较高的投资收益门槛。总体来看，负债端对行业形成稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is entering a new historical development stage, driven by various new engines such as policy and institutional dividends, demographic changes, technological advancements, and market ecology deepening, while facing significant challenges and traps [1][41]. Group 1: Historical Development and Current Trends - The insurance industry in China has undergone over 40 years of development, characterized by significant events that outline its trajectory [4][44]. - The industry is transitioning into a new development cycle, with the previous cycle marked by the pandemic lasting until 2025, and the current cycle presenting new opportunities [5][44]. - The capital market's resurgence is providing new opportunities for the life insurance sector, helping to resolve many existing contradictions [5][44]. Group 2: Four Major Dividends - **Policy and Institutional Dividends**: The "Healthy China" initiative and the deepening of the third pillar of pension policy are expected to stimulate demand for commercial health and pension insurance [17][57]. - **Demographic and Demand Changes**: The aging population is creating a pressing need for pension financial products, while the growing middle class is increasing demand for wealth transfer and tax planning solutions [19][58]. - **Technological and Digital Dividends**: The adoption of AI and big data is enhancing operational efficiency and customer experience, while new sales channels are emerging through digital platforms [19][59]. - **Market and Ecological Deepening**: The competition is shifting from single product offerings to comprehensive ecosystems that integrate insurance with health and pension services [21][61]. Group 3: Major Challenges - The industry faces fundamental challenges in profitability models, particularly with the risk of interest rate differentials re-emerging in a declining interest rate environment [31][34]. - There is a shortage of new talent who understand both insurance and healthcare, alongside resistance to organizational change as companies transition to more agile structures [32][34]. - Data security and privacy protection are critical challenges, especially as companies leverage customer data for pricing and services [33][34]. - The regulatory landscape is becoming increasingly complex, necessitating close communication with regulators to ensure compliance amid innovative business models [34][34]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - **Strategic Level**: Shift from "selling products" to "building ecosystems" by integrating health management and wealth management services into insurance offerings [35][36]. - **Product and Service Level**: Move towards modular and customizable insurance products that cater to specific customer needs, enhancing service value [37][38]. - **Channel and Marketing Level**: Transition from a "people-intensive" approach to "precision outreach" by leveraging digital tools and enhancing the quality of the sales force [38][39]. - **Technology and Data Level**: Develop centralized data and business platforms to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions through full digitalization [39][40].

Core Viewpoint - The trend of insurance companies issuing capital supplementary bonds and perpetual bonds for financing has become increasingly significant in 2023, driven by macroeconomic conditions, interest rates, market competition, and regulatory policies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Capital Supplementary Bonds - Recently, the Financial Regulatory Bureau approved Ping An Life to publicly issue up to 20 billion yuan of 10-year redeemable capital supplementary bonds [1]. - As of December 17, 2023, the total amount of capital supplementary bonds and perpetual bonds issued and approved for issuance in the insurance industry has reached 102.87 billion yuan [1]. - A total of 13 insurance companies have issued capital supplementary bonds this year, with a total issuance amount of 49.9 billion yuan and interest rates ranging from 2.15% to 2.8% [3]. Group 2: Perpetual Bonds - The total issuance of perpetual bonds in 2023 has reached 52.97 billion yuan, with interest rates between 2.2% and 2.95% [2]. - Perpetual bonds serve as an important tool for insurance companies to enhance their core capital, especially in light of stricter core capital recognition standards since the implementation of the "Solvency II" Phase II rules in 2022 [2]. - The transition period for the "Solvency II" Phase II project has been extended to the end of 2025, which is expected to lead to more insurance companies issuing bonds to alleviate capital pressure [2]. Group 3: Financing Structure Optimization - The choice of capital supplementary tools by insurance companies is influenced by the nature and purpose of the capital, with capital supplementary bonds primarily used to supplement subordinate capital and meet solvency requirements [4]. - Perpetual bonds, having no fixed maturity date, reduce repayment pressure but typically come with higher interest rates, increasing financial costs [4]. - The trend of optimizing capital structure through the issuance of both perpetual bonds and capital supplementary bonds is expected to continue, supporting the stable operation and sustainable development of insurance companies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies aims to enhance their solvency regulation standards, promote long-term investments, and support the real economy amidst a challenging domestic and international environment [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Background and Objectives - The policy is part of the "second generation solvency regulation" reform in the insurance industry, reflecting the need for supply-side reforms in response to current market pressures [2]. - The adjustment of risk factors is intended to encourage insurance companies to invest in A-shares and support foreign trade and investment, addressing the development challenges in these areas [2]. Group 2: Capital Market Implications - The A-share market is showing signs of recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around the 4000-point mark, indicating increased market resilience [3]. - Regulatory measures are being implemented to enhance the inclusivity of the capital market, particularly to support technology innovation and new productive forces [3]. - The core task for the A-share market is to stabilize and improve the quality of listed companies, which requires sustained policy patience and long-term capital support [3]. Group 3: Foreign Trade and Investment Context - China's foreign trade is characterized by steady growth and structural upgrades, despite facing complex external challenges [4]. - The need for policy incentives to enhance insurance support for foreign trade and investment is emphasized, particularly in light of rising risks and challenges in the global environment [4]. Group 4: Impact of Risk Factor Adjustments - The adjustment of risk factors is expected to inject approximately 32.6 billion yuan of capital into the market, potentially providing around 108.6 billion yuan in incremental funds if fully allocated to the CSI 300 stocks [11]. - The policy aims to stabilize the market by encouraging long-term value investments, thereby reducing short-term volatility [11]. - The adjustments will also enhance support for the real economy by directing insurance funds towards strategic sectors such as technology innovation and high-end manufacturing [11]. Group 5: Microeconomic Effects on Insurance Companies - The reduction in risk factors will improve the solvency ratios of insurance companies by lowering the minimum capital requirements [12]. - It will also create new opportunities for business expansion and risk asset allocation for insurance companies [12]. - The changes are expected to drive a transformation in investment philosophies and assessment mechanisms within insurance companies, promoting a shift from transactional to long-term value investment [12]. Group 6: Market Signals and Future Outlook - The adjustment sends a clear signal to the market that long-term investment strategies will be favored, potentially leading to a more stable A-share market [13][14]. - The insurance sector may experience improved fundamentals and valuation opportunities as a result of increased long-term equity investments [14]. - The regulatory framework is designed to guide financial resources towards supporting the real economy and national strategies, indicating a long-term commitment rather than short-term stimulus [15].

Core Viewpoint - Zhao Yulong has been appointed as the Party Secretary of the China Insurance Industry Association, bringing extensive regulatory experience and professional expertise to the role [1][2]. Group 1: Background of Zhao Yulong - Zhao Yulong, born in October 1970 in Nanchong, Sichuan, holds a PhD from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics [1]. - He has a long history in the financial regulatory system, having worked in the former China Insurance Regulatory Commission and later in the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission [1]. - His previous roles include Director of the Financial Accounting Department and Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of the Tianjin Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau [1]. Group 2: Professional Achievements - Zhao has significant expertise in insurance solvency regulation, actuarial science, accounting, taxation, and risk management [1]. - He led major accounting system reforms in the Chinese insurance industry and developed a risk-oriented solvency system known as Solvency II, which aligns with the industry's need for high-quality development [1]. - He was recognized as an honorary actuary in 2016, being the first individual from mainland China to receive this honor [1]. Group 3: Expectations for the China Insurance Industry Association - The China Insurance Industry Association is a key self-regulatory organization in the insurance sector, focusing on industry development planning, group standards, and service norms [2]. - There are high expectations for Zhao Yulong to leverage his regulatory experience and professional skills to advance the establishment of a credit system and integrity framework within the insurance industry [2].

Core Viewpoint - Zhao Yulong has been appointed as the Party Secretary of the China Insurance Industry Association, bringing extensive regulatory experience and professional expertise to the role [1][2]. Group 1: Background of Zhao Yulong - Zhao Yulong, born in October 1970 in Nanchong, Sichuan, holds a PhD from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics [1]. - He has a long history in the financial regulatory system, having worked in various capacities, including as the Director of the Financial Accounting Department at the former China Insurance Regulatory Commission [1]. - His previous roles include serving as the Party Secretary and Director of the Tianjin Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau [1]. Group 2: Professional Achievements - Zhao has significant expertise in insurance solvency regulation, actuarial science, accounting, taxation, and risk management [1]. - He led major accounting system reforms in the Chinese insurance industry and developed a risk-oriented solvency system known as "Solvency II" [1]. - This system has positioned China's insurance regulatory framework among the top tier internationally, aligning with the industry's need for high-quality development [1]. Group 3: Expectations for the New Role - The industry anticipates that Zhao will leverage his regulatory experience and professional skills to advance the construction of an industry credit system and improve the integrity system within the insurance sector [2].

Core Viewpoint - Zhao Yulong has been appointed as the Party Secretary of the China Insurance Industry Association after serving as the Director of the Tianjin Regulatory Bureau of the former National Financial Regulatory Administration, indicating a significant leadership transition within the insurance regulatory framework [1][3]. Background and Experience - Zhao Yulong, born in October 1970, has over 20 years of experience in the financial regulatory system, having held multiple key positions including Director of the Financial Accounting Department at the former China Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Tianjin Regulatory Bureau [2][3]. - He has a doctoral degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics and has been recognized for his contributions to the insurance accounting system, elevating it to an internationally leading position [3]. Contributions to the Industry - Zhao has played a pivotal role in the development of China's risk-oriented solvency system (Solvency II) and has been acknowledged as the first honorary actuary from mainland China by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in the UK [3]. - His insights extend to the integration of insurance and accounting professionalism, emphasizing the need for addressing both immediate challenges and long-term industry issues [4]. Strategic Initiatives - Under Zhao's leadership, the Tianjin Financial Regulatory Bureau established a collaborative framework for financial regulation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, enhancing financial services for major projects [6][7]. - The bureau has facilitated a "technology-industry-finance" cycle, promoting innovation and collaboration among local banks and technology enterprises, with over 18,000 tech innovation companies identified in Tianjin [7][8].

Core Insights - The insurance industry in China has shown resilience and progress in the first half of 2025, with total assets exceeding 39.2 trillion yuan and premium income growing by 5.1% year-on-year [2][10] - The industry is navigating challenges posed by low interest rates, stringent regulations, and new accounting standards, which present both risks and strategic opportunities for structural adjustments [1][10] Asset Management - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total investment balance of insurance companies surpassed 36 trillion yuan, marking a 17.4% increase year-on-year [2] - Bonds remain the primary investment choice for insurance funds, with a bond investment balance of 17.87 trillion yuan, accounting for 51.9% of total investments [3] - Stock investments have gained traction, with insurance companies' equity investments exceeding 3 trillion yuan, reflecting a strategic shift towards equities due to low fixed-income returns [3][4] Premium Income and Claims - In the first half of 2025, insurance companies reported original premium income of 3.7 trillion yuan, with significant recovery in life insurance products such as dividend, annuity, and health insurance [2][5] - Claims and benefits paid by insurance companies reached 1.3 trillion yuan, a 9% increase, indicating a deepening of the industry's protective functions [5][6] Solvency and Regulatory Environment - The overall solvency adequacy ratio for the insurance industry stood at 204.5% as of Q2 2025, well above regulatory requirements [8][10] - Some smaller insurance companies face solvency pressures, necessitating swift action in capital replenishment and risk management to avoid stricter regulatory measures [8][10] Strategic Developments - The industry is increasingly focusing on digitalization and service optimization to enhance claims efficiency and customer trust [7] - Insurance companies are exploring diversified investment strategies, including the establishment of private equity funds, to adapt to market conditions and regulatory changes [4][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the past three years, the re - allocation of insurance funds may have been an important factor in the flattening of the interest rate curve. When the supply of high - yield assets such as non - standard assets shrank, insurance funds favored ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [5][28]. - The impact of the "premium开门红" on the bond market has weakened. Premium income is not the only factor determining the rhythm of insurance bond allocation. Insurance institutions often time their bond allocations, and high new premiums do not necessarily lead to high bond - allocation scales [5][34]. - After the reduction of the scheduled interest rate, the cost of new insurance liabilities will decrease, and the criteria for high - dividend assets to enter the pool may be lowered. Insurance may gradually focus on overseas income - generating assets [6][61]. - Due to the change in accounting standards and the pursuit of risk - return ratio and profit - smoothing mechanisms, insurance funds prefer high - dividend assets. Under the new accounting standards, most bonds are placed in the FVOCI account, and the trading attributes and the characteristic of realizing profits at the end of the quarter have been amplified [6][86]. - The "Solvency II" has higher requirements for the duration and transparency of insurance assets, but for most insurance institutions, the level of risk factors alone is difficult to affect the allocation preference of insurance funds [6][118]. - The net secondary - market purchases of treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds (excluding policy - bank bonds) by insurance institutions are highly correlated with the actual changes in their holdings, which is worthy of tracking [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 In recent years, insurance funds may have been an important factor in the flattening of the interest rate curve - Premiums are an important source of insurance funds. The long - term nature of insurance liabilities makes insurance funds prefer long - term assets. The proportion of life insurance premiums in total premiums has increased from 52% in 2022 to 56% in 2024 [25]. - When the supply of high - yield non - standard assets shrank, insurance funds re - allocated to ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, resulting in the flattening of the interest rate curve. From 2022Q2 to 2025Q1, the proportion of non - standard assets in total insurance funds decreased from 26.9% to 19.3%, and the term spread between 30Y and 10Y treasury bonds changed from "mean - reversion" to "downward - trend" after 2020 [28]. 3.2 The impact of the "premium开门红" on the bond market has weakened, and currently, insurance asset allocation values the risk - return ratio more - In the past, due to the lack of long - term government bond issuance in January, insurance funds flowed into the secondary market in the early part of the year. However, in recent years, the supply of long - term government bonds in the primary market has increased, and the influence on the secondary market has weakened [34]. - Premium income is not the only factor determining the rhythm of insurance bond allocation. The reasons include sufficient primary - market supply, relatively high deposit returns, and the importance of timing bond allocation to increase returns in a low - interest - rate environment [41]. - Before the reduction of the scheduled interest rate, insurance institutions usually try to boost premiums but time their bond allocations. Although the reduction of the scheduled interest rate on August 31, 2025, was greater than expected, the "premium - boosting" phenomenon was not obvious, and the preference for bond market allocation weakened. After the reduction, the cost of new insurance liabilities decreased, and the attractiveness of 30Y treasury bonds and 20Y and above local government bonds increased when their YTM was higher than 2% [51][61]. - Insurance may focus on overseas fixed - income assets. The expansion of the scope of eligible investors for the Southbound Bond Connect is imminent, which may increase the proportion of overseas investment by insurance institutions and help improve investment returns [64]. 3.3 Stock - bond rebalancing and the switch between old and new accounting standards make high - dividend assets more popular - As the domestic long - term bond yield may remain low for a long time, insurance companies may seek high - yield fixed - income assets overseas and increase their allocation of equities [73]. - Under the new accounting standards, most bonds are placed in the FVOCI account, and the trading attributes and the characteristic of realizing profits at the end of the quarter have been amplified. Insurance institutions prefer to buy high - dividend assets and re - classify them into the FVOCI account to smooth profit fluctuations [86][97]. - High - dividend equity assets can support investment returns when bond yields are low. Their full - return index has performed better than ultra - long - term treasury bonds since 2019 [103]. 3.4 "Solvency II" has higher requirements for the duration and transparency of insurance assets - Since 2023, the solvency adequacy ratio of insurance institutions has been steadily increasing. As of 2025Q1, the comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio of Chinese insurance companies reached 204.5%, and the core solvency adequacy ratio reached 146.5% [110]. - "Solvency II" requires a higher degree of matching between asset and liability durations. If the asset duration is less than the liability duration, the minimum capital for interest - rate risk will increase rapidly under stress - testing scenarios [113]. - Holding assets such as trusts, real estate, and non - standard assets will increase the risk factor, raise the minimum risk capital, and lower the solvency adequacy ratio. However, for most insurance institutions, the level of risk factors alone is difficult to affect their asset - allocation preferences [118]. 3.5 Insurance focuses on primary - market subscriptions and supplements with secondary - market transactions 5.1 Which types of bonds in the cash - bond trading data of insurance institutions are worthy of high - frequency tracking - The net secondary - market purchases of treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds (excluding policy - bank bonds) by insurance institutions are highly correlated with the actual changes in their holdings. In 2024, insurance institutions showed more obvious trading behaviors in the secondary market [119]. 5.2 Rules for insurance trading of treasury bonds - Insurance institutions tend to increase their net purchases of long - term treasury bonds at the end of the quarter and sell them at the beginning of the next quarter. Since 2023, their net purchases of 30Y treasury bonds have increased significantly [125]. - Although there are obvious rules for insurance institutions' trading of treasury bonds at the end of the quarter, it is difficult for a single type of investor to affect the bond - market trend [136]. 5.3 Insurance trading of local government bonds: The spread can be used as a leading indicator - The supply pressure of local government bonds affects the spread, which in turn affects the net secondary - market purchases of local government bonds by insurance institutions. The spread of local government bonds is an important indicator for judging the net - buying power of insurance institutions in the secondary market. When the spread increases by 5 - 6bp within a month, the net - buying scale of insurance institutions may increase significantly [138]. 5.4 Insurance trading strategy for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds - Since May 2024, insurance institutions have continuously sold medium - and long - term Tier 2 and perpetual bonds because these bonds cannot pass the cash - flow test and most are re - classified into the FVTPL account, which has a greater impact on current profits [152].