（1）海外经济 经济数据上：高频数据显示美国经济增长动能维持韧性，就业市场仍有韧性，房地产市场基本持平。增 长方面，亚特兰大联储GDPNow指示美国三季度GDP增速上行至4.2%。消费方面，上周实际个人消费 季比折年增速的Nowcast持平于3.4%，Redbook零售指数指示11月美国零售同比小幅上升。就业市场方 面，周度首申人数由前值23.9万人降至21.7万人，好于预期（彭博一致预期，下同），但续申人数上升 0.7万人至173万人。地产方面，30年期固定房贷利率上行至6.3%，房贷申请量略有下降，Redfin房屋销 售量基本符合季节性水平。 9月美国非农数据喜忧参半。一方面，9月美国新增非农就业人数11.9万人，大超市场预期（5.1万人）； 对就业市场走势具有一定前瞻性的每周平均时长维持在34.2小时，没有进一步下降；长期失业人群（27 周以上）占比有所回落。但另一方面，失业率在劳动参与率回升的影响下，进一步上升至4.4%，高于 市场预期（4.3%）；9月非农就业的增长仍集中在教育、医疗保健业、休闲和酒店业，增长基础并不广 泛。10月非农就业数据真空期内，民间数据的走弱一度引发市场对美国就业市场的担忧。 ...

11月19日黄金股票ETF（517400）大涨4.55%，黄金近两天实现V转，伦敦现货黄金价格重返4100美元/ 盎司。此前由于市场对美联储12月降息预期降温以及获利盘止盈等因素出现技术性调整，但从中长期看 美元上涨的核心驱动因素仍未改变。 货币超发及财政赤字货币化背景下，美元信用体系受到挑战；美国政府仍然面临多重问题，宏观环境也 存在不确定性；全球地缘动荡频发推动资产储备多元化，黄金作为安全资产的需求持续提升。摩根大通 报告数据显示，2025年第三季度，全球央行净购金总量达到220吨，环比增长30%；中国央行公布最新 黄金储备数据显示，10月末黄金储备7409万盎司，环比继续增加约3万盎司，为中国央行连续第十二个 月增持黄金。 驱动黄金价格上涨的核心要素并未根本改变，中长期"美联储开启降息周期+海外宏观政策不确定性加 剧+全球去美元化趋势"对于金价构成一定支撑。中金公司认为，本轮黄金行情的涨幅与持续时间，仍 低于上世纪70年代和2000年代两轮主要上涨周期，若当前趋势延续，不排除金价明年突破5000美元/盎 司的可能。 聚焦黄金板块的投资者可以关注黄金基金ETF（518800）和黄金股票ETF（517400 ...

相关机构表示，全球央行购金热情不减。摩根大通报告数据显示，2025年第三季度，全球央行净购 金总量达到220吨，环比增长30%，折合年化购买速度为880吨；在金价平均为3668美元/盎司的9月份， 官方报告的净购买量仍达到39吨，是2025年以来最强劲的月份。其中，巴西央行在9月购买了15吨黄 金；韩国央行也在会议上表示，计划"从中长期角度考虑增持黄金"，这是自2013年以来该行首次释放购 金信号。中国央行购金趋势仍在持续，中国央行公布最新黄金储备数据显示，10月末黄金储备7409万盎 司，环比继续增加约3万盎司，这是中国央行连续第十二个月增持黄金。 中长期看，本轮行情的驱动"美联储开启降息周期+海外宏观政策不确定性加剧+全球去美元化趋 势"对于金价构成支撑，或可考虑逢低分批布局。 黄金股票ETF（517400）跟踪的是SSH黄金股票指数（931238），该指数从内地与香港市场中选取 市值较大且业务涉及黄金采掘、冶炼及销售的上市公司证券作为指数样本，涵盖黄金产业链上中下游。 指数成分股主要集中于贵金属和工业金属行业，具有较高的行业集中度，能够综合反映黄金产业相关上 市证券的整体表现。 注：如提及个股仅供参考， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various macroeconomic factors, including Federal Reserve officials' hawkish statements, the end of the U.S. government shutdown, and ongoing global uncertainties, which may support gold prices in the medium to long term [1][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of November 14, the London spot gold price closed at $4,082.16 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of $81.87 per ounce since November 7, reflecting a rise of 2.05% [1]. - Gold prices experienced volatility, reaching a high of $4,245.22 and a low of $3,997.20 during the week [1]. - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced the short-term appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicates a 4.0% growth rate for the U.S. GDP in Q3, although government shutdowns may affect data accuracy [2]. - Personal consumption growth remains stable at an annualized rate of 3.4%, with retail sales showing a slight year-on-year increase [2]. - The unemployment claims decreased slightly to 226,000, indicating a stable labor market [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about inflation, leading to a decrease in interest rate cut expectations for December [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped from 70% to below 50%, influenced by internal voting tendencies within the FOMC [3]. - The Fed's decision-making process is shifting towards a more collective approach rather than being dominated by the chair [3]. Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks' gold purchases reached 220 tons in Q3 2025, a 30% increase from the previous quarter, with Brazil and South Korea showing significant buying activity [4]. - China's central bank continues to increase its gold reserves, reaching 74.09 million ounces by the end of October, marking the twelfth consecutive month of increases [4]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Gold - In the long term, the demand for gold as a safe asset is expected to rise due to challenges to the U.S. dollar credit system and ongoing geopolitical tensions [7]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally may position gold as a new pricing anchor, enhancing its upward momentum [7]. - The Fed's potential rate cut cycle, influenced by economic resilience and inflation, may extend the window for bullish gold positions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various macroeconomic factors, including Federal Reserve officials' hawkish statements, the end of the U.S. government shutdown, and ongoing global uncertainties, which may support gold prices in the medium to long term [1][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of November 14, the London spot gold price closed at $4,082.16 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of $81.87 per ounce since November 7, representing a 2.05% rise [1]. - Gold prices experienced volatility, reaching a high of $4,245.22 and a low of $3,997.20 during the week [1]. - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced the short-term appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicating a 4.0% growth rate for Q3, although government shutdowns may affect data accuracy [2]. - Consumer spending remains stable, with a 3.4% annualized growth rate in personal consumption and a slight increase in retail sales [2]. - The employment market shows a slight decrease in initial jobless claims, indicating stability [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about inflation, leading to a decrease in interest rate cut expectations for December [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped from 70% to below 50%, influenced by internal voting tendencies within the FOMC [3]. - The Fed's decision-making process is shifting towards a more collective approach rather than being dominated by the chair [3]. Group 4: Global Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks continue to show strong demand for gold, with a net purchase of 220 tons in Q3 2025, a 30% increase from the previous quarter [4]. - Brazil and South Korea have made significant gold purchases, with South Korea signaling plans to increase its gold reserves for the first time since 2013 [4]. - China's central bank has also been increasing its gold reserves for twelve consecutive months, reaching 7,409 million ounces by the end of October [4]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Gold - In the long term, the demand for gold as a safe asset is expected to rise due to challenges to the U.S. dollar credit system and increasing geopolitical tensions [6][7]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally may position gold as a new pricing anchor, potentially enhancing its upward momentum [7]. - The Fed's current easing cycle may be prolonged due to resilient employment and inflation, providing a favorable environment for gold investments [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are unlikely to peak at the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle, as they are still in the early stages of this cycle [1] - In the medium to long term, the current market conditions driven by the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, increasing uncertainty in overseas macro policies, and the global trend of de-dollarization are supportive of gold prices, suggesting a strategy of gradual accumulation during dips [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which selects larger market capitalization companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales, covering the entire gold industry chain [1] Group 2 - The index constituents are primarily concentrated in the precious metals and industrial metals sectors, reflecting the overall performance of publicly traded securities related to the gold industry [1] - The index has a high industry concentration, which allows it to comprehensively represent the performance of gold-related listed securities [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that spot gold prices are maintaining high volatility amidst ongoing market uncertainties due to the U.S. government shutdown and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [1] - The recent U.S.-China trade talks have eased tensions, but the persistent uncertainty in the market continues to support safe-haven demand for gold [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October was accompanied by hawkish comments from Powell, which negatively impacted market expectations for further rate cuts this year [1] Group 2 - The fluctuations in gold prices have led to increased divergence among traders, resulting in a decrease in gold ETF holdings on a month-over-month basis [1] - Short-term expectations suggest that gold prices may continue to experience high volatility, while medium to long-term factors such as the Fed's rate cut cycle, increasing macroeconomic uncertainties abroad, and a global trend towards de-dollarization are expected to provide support for gold prices [1] - The gold stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which selects larger market capitalization companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales from the Hong Kong and Shanghai markets, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the gold industry [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the unified support from European leaders for a just and lasting peace, endorsing President Trump's proposal for an immediate ceasefire and using the current contact line as a starting point for negotiations [1] - The statement emphasizes that international borders should not be changed by force and highlights the commitment to continue strengthening sanctions and pressure on the Russian economy and defense industry [1] - Following the statement, gold experienced a short-term drop, with the gold ETF (518800) falling over 5%, and a net inflow exceeding 5 billion yuan over five consecutive days, bringing its total scale close to 30 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - In the medium to long term, the demand for gold as a safe asset is expected to rise due to challenges to the US dollar credit system amid excessive monetary issuance and fiscal deficit monetization, along with increasing global geopolitical instability [1] - The combination of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle, heightened uncertainty in overseas macro policies, and a global trend towards de-dollarization is likely to provide support for gold prices [1] - Investors are advised to be cautious of short-term volatility in gold prices and to focus on long-term investment value, particularly in gold ETFs (518800) that directly invest in physical gold and gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a collective decline, with major indices falling due to concerns over loan issues disclosed by two regional banks, Zions Bank and Western Alliance, which saw declines of 13% and 10.8% respectively [1] - The regional bank index plummeted nearly 7%, leading to a market capitalization loss of over $100 billion among the 74 largest banks in the U.S. [1] Volatility Indicators - The VIX index, often referred to as the "Wall Street Fear Index," surged to its highest closing level since April 24 [3] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market faced significant turmoil, with Bitcoin's price dropping below $109,000, resulting in over 210,000 liquidations and a total liquidation amount of $733 million [4] - A notable incident occurred where Paxos mistakenly minted 300 trillion PayPal stablecoins (PYUSD) instead of 300 million, causing temporary disruption in the decentralized finance market [6][7] Gold Market - Gold prices accelerated, reaching $4,380 per ounce on October 17, continuing an upward trend [7] - Several institutions have issued risk warnings regarding the volatility of international precious metal prices, advising members to enhance risk awareness [9] - Long-term factors supporting gold prices remain unchanged, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and increasing global de-dollarization trends [9]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a collective decline, with major indices falling due to concerns over loan issues at regional banks, leading to a nearly 7% drop in the regional bank index and a market capitalization loss of over $100 billion among the 74 largest banks in the US [1] - The VIX index, known as the "Wall Street Fear Index," surged to its highest closing level since April 24 [3] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market faced significant turmoil, with Bitcoin's price dropping below $109,000 and approximately 210,000 individuals experiencing liquidation, amounting to $733 million in losses [5] - A notable incident occurred when Paxos mistakenly minted 300 trillion PayPal stablecoins (PYUSD) instead of 300 million, causing temporary disruption in the decentralized finance market [8] Gold Market - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching $4,380 per ounce on October 17, with institutions warning about the volatility in international precious metal prices [10][13] - Despite the bullish outlook for gold, experts advise against blindly chasing high prices, recommending a strategy of regular investment and buying on dips for ordinary investors [14]