此外，欧委会还根据评估结果，认为有必要对芬兰启动过度赤字程序。而德国因国防支出增加导致赤字 超标被免予处罚。 芬兰2024年的预算赤字为GDP的4.4%，预计今年将升至4.5%，明年将维持在4.0%。德国今年的赤字预 计为GDP的3.1%，到2026 年为4.0%，2027年为3.8%，同样高于3%的上限。根据欧盟《稳定与增长公 约》规定，各国政府的年度预算赤字不得超过GDP的3%，公共债务不得超过GDP的60%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 欧委会此前公布的经济预测报告指出，欧元区预算赤字将从2024年的占国内生产总值（GDP）的3.1% 小幅上升至今年的3.2%，并在2026年进一步升至3.3%，2027年升至3.4%。其中，受国防支出增加影 响，比利时、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、爱沙尼亚和德国的赤字预计明年将上升。 欧委会评估了所有成员国对欧盟财政框架的遵守情况。欧委会指出，欧盟面临若干战略脆弱性，并持续 遭遇结构性挑战，包括生产率偏低、人口结构压力，以及与国防、脱碳和数字经济转型相关的公共财政 支出需求不断增加，因此要增强竞争力并保持稳健的公共财政。 新华财经布鲁塞尔11月26日电 欧盟委员会25日表示，欧元区各 ...

2025年经济增长高于预期主要是由于在预期关税上调之前出口增加，同时第三季度持续增长也表明欧洲 经济整体具有韧性。欧盟和欧元区的经济增长主要由私人消费和投资驱动。未来两年全球经济环境预计 仍将充满挑战，但稳健的劳动力市场、不断提升的购买力和有利的融资环境将继续推动经济温和增长。 通胀将会趋于稳定。欧元区2025年通胀率将降至2.1%，之后将徘徊在2.0%左右。2026年将降至1.9%， 2027年将降至2.0%。通胀放缓主要是由于服务和食品价格涨幅下降所致。欧盟公共赤字预计将从2024 年占GDP的3.1%上升至2027年的3.4%，部分原因是同期国防开支占GDP的比例从1.5%上升至2%。欧盟 公共债务预计将在2024年至2027年间从占GDP的84.5%上升至85%。 欧盟委员会预测，欧盟今年GDP将增长1.4%，2026年保持同样增幅，2027年增长1.5%。委员会同时预 测，欧元区2025年经济增长率将达到1.3%，2026年为1.2%，2027年为1.4%。 斯通社11月17日布鲁塞尔报道，欧盟委员会今日将欧盟2025年国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期从1.1% 上调至1.4%，并将2026年预期从1 ...

公共债务的增长并不可怕，合理的增长是稳定经济、促进社会发展和应对危机的主要手段 文 | 邓宇 公共债务的增长与经济增长并非正相关，二者更多体现为结构性的平衡。自2008年全球金融危机以来，全球公共债务规模大规模增加，债务风险存在同步 上升的趋势。历史上多次金融危机表明，过度举债以及财政过度扩张是政府破产的主因，而且引发政治危机和社会危机。短期而言，大规模的公共债务增 长的溢出风险可能不会较快显现，但中长期却会逐渐溢出，制约财政预算平衡，一旦经济增长失速将会导致财政赤字扩张，并反过来加剧公共债务风险， 不利于经济稳定增长。 有关公共债务的历史演进的代表性著作包括英国经济史与金融史学者詹姆斯·麦克唐纳出版的《债务与国家的崛起：西方民主制度的金融起源》、美国人 类学家大卫·格雷伯出版的《债：5000年债务史》，以及美国经济学者巴里·艾兴格林等学者联合出版的《全球公共债务：经验、危机与应对》等，从不同 维度揭示了公共债务的发展史。 近年来有关债务危机的著作颇多，美国桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧出版的《债务危机：我的应对原则》《国家如何破产：大周期》，以及荷兰经济学者杰 姆斯·鲁斯出版的《主权债务简史：金融的结构性权力和国 ...

Core Insights - Kenya's public debt has surpassed 12 trillion Kenyan Shillings for the first time, reaching 12.06 trillion by September 2025, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 67.3% [1] Debt Composition - The domestic debt amounts to 6.66 trillion Kenyan Shillings, representing 37.2% of GDP, while external debt stands at 5.39 trillion Kenyan Shillings, accounting for 30.1% of GDP [1] Year-on-Year Growth - Compared to the previous year, public debt increased by 11.7% from 10.79 trillion Kenyan Shillings [1] Recent Changes - Between June and September 2025, Kenya's public debt net increased by approximately 250 billion Kenyan Shillings, with domestic borrowing rising by about 340 billion and external debt decreasing by around 80 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Spanish central bank emphasizes the need for Spain to implement measures to reduce spending and address public debt, which exceeds 100% of economic output [1] Group 1: Public Debt and Financial Stability - The Spanish central bank's semi-annual financial stability report indicates that public debt will remain at a "high level" both historically and within Europe [1] - The central bank warns that high debt levels make Spain vulnerable to sudden changes in market financing conditions, particularly those stemming from political instability in France or the United States [1] Group 2: Future Financial Challenges - The report highlights that financing needs in the coming years will be particularly severe due to factors such as population aging, geopolitical tensions, digital transformation, and climate change [1] - These challenges will necessitate increased public spending, which, if not offset by compensatory measures, could exacerbate public financial imbalances [1]

Core Viewpoint - Croatia's public debt has reached €50.93 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7% while the debt-to-GDP ratio has decreased to 57.5% from 59.3% a year earlier, primarily due to nominal GDP growth [1][1][1] Summary by Relevant Categories Debt Levels - As of the end of June, Croatia's total government debt stands at €50.93 billion [1] - The debt increased by €0.3 billion compared to the end of the first quarter, representing a growth rate of 0.6% [1] Debt-to-GDP Ratio - The debt-to-GDP ratio has decreased to 57.5%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous year's 59.3% [1] - The reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio is attributed to the growth in nominal GDP [1]

Core Insights - Chile's government debt reached a total of $143.39 billion by the end of Q3, equivalent to 42.7% of the projected GDP for the quarter, exceeding the 2025 target of 42.4% set in the Public Finance Report [1] - This level of public debt is the highest recorded since 1991, indicating a worsening of public financial conditions [1] - The Ministry of Finance anticipates that government debt may rise to 43.2% of GDP next year [1]

Core Insights - As of October 1, Azerbaijan's foreign exchange reserves exceeded $81.5 billion, reflecting a 14.7% increase since the beginning of the year, sufficient to cover 37 months of imports [1] - The public debt stands at 253.7 billion manats ($14.92 billion), which is 19.5% of GDP, with internal debt at 170.5 billion manats ($10.03 billion) and external debt at 83.2 billion manats ($4.89 billion) [1] - The Central Bank forecasts a GDP growth rate of 2.2% for 2025, with the non-oil and gas sector expected to grow by 3.7%, and a GDP growth rate of 2% for 2026, with the non-oil and gas sector projected to grow by 4.4% [1]

期货日报网讯（记者 肖佳煊）11月10日，黄金期货价格盘中持续拉升，截至发稿交投于4075美元，较 日内低点上涨超75美元，黄金相关ETF产品相对强势。 混沌期货分析指出，长期全球货币信用，公共债务的担忧仍是重要驱动，贵金属仍持有向上的驱动；但 短期的事件因素引发回落已经压低波动率，近期的宏观乐观预期均以落地，后续的风险出现上扬的可能 性较大，贵金属具备支撑回升的迹象。周内可关注美国政府关门的实际情况和美股等金融市场的波动率 走势，下周应公布的数据美国CPI数据和本周未公布的非农数据，政府开门的时间是宏观影响的变盘 点。 消息面上，据央视新闻，美国参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩当地时间11月9日表示，一项关于结束政 府"停摆"的潜在协议"正在逐步达成"。但图恩同时表示，该协议并不能保证达成，参议院的议员们需要 时间阅读提案，且可能需要数小时才能采取具体行动。 中国黄金协会最新统计数据显示，2025年前三季度，国内原料产金271.782吨，比2024年同期增加3.714 吨，同比增长1.39%。另有进口原料产金121.149吨，同比增长8.94%。国内原料和进口原料共计生产黄 金392.931吨，同比增长3.60% ...

Core Insights - Cameroon is projected to achieve a GDP growth rate exceeding 4% by 2025, with public debt expected to account for 42% of GDP, which is below the CEMAC's 70% threshold [2][3] Economic Strategy - The economic development path of Cameroon focuses on industrialization, modernization of infrastructure, and economic diversification [2] - The National Development Strategy (NDS) has four main pillars: structural transformation and diversification, human capital development, employment and inclusiveness, and good governance [2] Challenges - Current challenges include mobilizing resources for national investment plans, controlling debt costs, modernizing the production sector, and integrating youth and women into the growth process [2] Partnership with Afreximbank - The partnership between Cameroon and the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) is emphasized, highlighting the bank's contributions to infrastructure and financial projects [3] - Specific projects funded by Afreximbank include financing for the Douala Port Authority's container terminal, support for rural electrification projects in over 2,000 locations, and investment in interchangeable government bonds to support public finances [3] - A support package of €380 million will be provided starting from July 2025 through direct loans and guarantees from local banks [3]