哈喽大家好！今天我们来聊聊近期中美达成一项重要协议。美方宣布暂停对中国加征24%的对等关税，同时，此前额外加征的10%关税也一并取消。这一举 措或为双边经贸关系带来新的缓和契机。 但令人疑惑的是，特朗普的对华态度呈现出矛盾的180度转变，一边抛出"台湾有事就是日本有事"的挑衅言论。 一边却在被问及"中国是否算美国朋友"时称"许多盟友都算不上朋友"，还强调自身与中国关系良好，甚至在与中国领导人会面前于社交平台公开提及"G2"概 念。 这种堪比翻书的变脸速度，究竟源于什么？美国发起的关税战为何难以为继？答案的核心，在于特朗普试图通过关税战达成的三大目标均未实现。 打压中国修复美国信仰 特朗普发动关税战的首要目的，是想通过打压中国缓解美国内部崩塌的国家信仰危机。美国并非传统意义上的世俗国家，其国家性格深深烙印着宗教基因。 美元背面印着"我们信仰上帝"，而作为基督教大本营的欧洲，欧元上却无任何宗教表述。早年抵达美国的新教徒，秉持"财富是上帝对勤奋的奖赏，贫穷是 懒惰的结果"的教义。 这一理念塑造了"美国梦"的核心：只要努力就能成功，也长期维系着美国社会秩序。但如今这一信仰已岌岌可危。 过去数十年，美国资本回报率远高于 ...

10月30日，中美两国高层领导人在韩国釜山举行了会晤，达成了多个重要共识。会谈结束后，从特朗普 和美国国内的反应来看，显然这次中国的立场得到了美国的高度重视，且美国对此回应积极。 首先， 特朗普在真实社交平台上公开表示，他已经实现了自己设定的目标。稍后，在乘坐空军一号离开韩国 时，他在接受采访时称此次会晤为一次巨大的成功，并表示中国的反对意见已经消除，中国已经承诺将 大规模采购美国的大豆，并且采购工作将立即开始。当被问到这次会晤从1到10分打多少分时，特朗普 毫不犹豫地回答：12分。 与此同时，中国商务部在30日当天也对外公布了此次会谈的成果，主要包括 以下三项内容： 1. 美方将取消对华加征的10%芬太尼关税；对中国商品加征的24%对等关税将继续暂停 一年。 2. 双方互相暂停相关出口管制等措施一年。 3. 双方互相暂停征收船舶港务费一年。 其次，中国目前正处于国力上升的阶段，而美国则进入了相对的下降期。从博弈的角度来看，中美之间 的关税战和科技战，时间已经站在中国这边。美国注重速战速决，而中国则通过拖延争取时间，为国内 市场和产业链的稳定提供喘息空间。 经过这次会晤及休战，我认为中美的博弈已经进入了一个战 ...

特朗普是真敢开口，问台湾也要3500亿到5500亿美元的投资。 美国媒体近日披露，随着美国和台湾持续推进关税谈判，美国要求台湾在美投资3500亿至5500亿美元，而且台湾计划在11月底之前完成协议。 但也有知情人士认为，因为特朗普在贸易政策问题上经常临时改变主意，所以谈判什么时候结束现在还无法确定，也不确定能否在11月底前达成协议。 台湾方面表示，与美国的关税谈判只差临门一脚，目标是实现税率降低且不再叠加。 按照此前的媒体披露，已经与美国达成关税谈判协议的日本和韩国，也已经接受了美国的勒索，韩国承诺对美国投资2000亿美元，再采购美国1500亿美元的 能源产品，而日本接受的投资要求则是5500亿美元。 也就是说，美国对台湾的要求是最低限度要接受与韩国同等水平的投资金额，上限则是日本。但台湾的经济体量与日韩都还存在差距。 而之前最早与美国达成贸易协定的越南接受的金额为1200亿美元，欧盟与美国的谈判结果是欧盟直接在美国投资6500亿美元，另外采购7000亿美元的美国能 源产品。 直接投资再加采购美国能源产品，是美国与其它国家达成的关税协议的主要模式，目前的主要经济体中，欧盟与日韩都已达成协议。 不过，在10月底 ...

Group 1 - Gold experienced a significant drop, falling by $100, erasing all gains from the previous week and returning to an adjustment zone, with a focus on maintaining the $4000 level [1][4] - The price faced resistance at $4100, leading to a decline to $4006, followed by a slight rebound to $4055, indicating a potential stop-loss adjustment process [3] - The market is currently in a state of adjustment, with potential support levels at $3965 and resistance at $4110, suggesting a continued bearish outlook [4][6] Group 2 - Recent developments include renewed tensions in the trade war, particularly between Europe and the U.S., which may impact market dynamics and contribute to the volatility in gold prices [6] - Manufacturing data from the U.S. exceeded expectations, strengthening the dollar and putting further pressure on gold prices [6] - The upcoming release of industrial data and the import price index is crucial for assessing the strength of the U.S. manufacturing sector and its implications for inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [7] Group 3 - The correlation between U.S. stock markets and gold prices has intensified, with both experiencing simultaneous declines, indicating a broader market uncertainty [8][9] - The current market environment is characterized by confusion regarding capital pricing, particularly concerning the AI sector, which is seen as a potential bubble [10]

Core Points - The article discusses President Trump's recent executive order to adjust the scope of "reciprocal tariffs," specifically exempting certain agricultural products from these tariffs, which is seen as a significant concession in the ongoing trade war [1][5] - Analysts suggest that this move is aimed at alleviating public dissatisfaction over rising prices and may influence the upcoming midterm elections [1][5] Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - Trump signed an executive order on November 14, exempting certain agricultural products such as coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, bananas, oranges, tomatoes, beef, and some fertilizer products from "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - This decision is characterized as a major reversal in Trump's tariff policy, with analysts noting that rising prices have pressured him to make this adjustment [5][6] Group 2: Economic Impact - Despite Trump's claims that tariffs have not exacerbated inflation, prices for everyday goods continue to rise, with banana prices up approximately 7% and tomato prices up about 1% [4] - The cost of food consumption for American households increased by 2.7% in September, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [4] Group 3: Public Sentiment and Political Implications - A recent poll indicated that about two-thirds of American voters disapprove of Trump's tariff policy, which could jeopardize the Republican Party's performance in the upcoming midterm elections [5] - Trump's decision to withdraw certain tariffs is viewed as an attempt to soothe public concerns over economic issues, particularly inflation [5][6] Group 4: Financial Costs of Tariffs - The tariffs on imported coffee have cost the U.S. approximately $358 million this year, significantly higher than the $1.3 million from the previous year [5] - The cost of automobile tariffs has reached $13 billion, over 36 times the original amount, highlighting the financial burden of these tariffs on American consumers [5]

德国的这两封"战书"，真不是闹着玩的。第一封是总理默茨亲自签发的，对中国钢材加税；第二封是德国央行行长纳格尔放话，欧洲要准备对华报复。结果 很尴尬，中国没急，反倒用他们自己的规则，把他们的招数全部打回去了。 先说默茨。这个人上台后画风突变，以前在野的时候，还骂欧盟对中国加税是"愚蠢的保护主义"。今年，却自己站出来提案，要提高中国钢材关税，减少免 税额度，鼓励买欧盟自产的钢材。德国经济连续四年停滞，工程、汽车、机械制造全面吃紧。出口型国家，支柱产业一个接一个被打压，政客不找点理由说 不过去，于是"中国竞争力太强"成了统一借口。 他很清楚，德国的饭碗靠工业出口。偏偏这几年被夹在两头，美国的关税战一个劲加码，中国制造又不断升级。德国人发现，自己两边都没便宜可占。于是 口风变了，开始说保护产业，搞起加税的老路子。但这种操作，直接把自己下游产业卡住。汽车、机械、零部件全涨成本，本来就被美国关税压利润，现在 又被自己政府政策掐脖子。连德国的汽车协会都出来说，这会让供应链更紧。 更麻烦的是，这操作让中德关系紧绷到爆。上个月，德国外长临时取消访华，表面理由是"会谈安排不够多"，实际是摆出政治姿态。背景这么紧张，纳格尔 来了第 ...

美国对墨西哥施压的策略可谓直截了当。时任美国总统特朗普政府首先抛出了关税威胁的橄榄枝，意图拉拢墨西哥一同构建针对中国的贸易围堵。 墨西哥经济部内部流出的一份文件揭示了美方的强硬底线：墨西哥必须在2026年的预算提案中明确纳入对华加征关税的条款，而给出的最后期限是 八月底。 然而，墨西哥私营部门的反应却出乎政府的意料。八月中旬，全国制造业商会发布了一份掷地有声的报告，指出墨西哥制造业对中国原材料和关键 设备的依赖程度高达惊人的42%。商会会长在公开场合毫不讳言地表示："对中国商品加征关税，无异于我们对自己产业开刀。" 更令墨西哥政府感到棘手的是，反对的声音甚至出现在了执政党内部。多位执政党议员联名提出了一项修正案，要求推迟原定的对华加税计划。其 中一位议员在听证会上直言不讳："我们坚决支持政府保护本国产业的努力，但这一切绝不能以牺牲与重要贸易伙伴的紧密关系为代价。" 面对这一局面，中国外交部在九月初迅速作出了回应。发言人明确指出，墨西哥单方面采取加征关税的举动，必将严重损害双边贸易关系的健康发 展，并大幅削弱中国企业赴墨投资的信心。这一表态在业界被解读为一条清晰的警告：如果墨西哥执意推行加税政策，中方必将采取对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of U.S.-China agricultural cooperation, particularly in soybean trade, highlighting the challenges faced by U.S. farmers due to tariffs and market dynamics [2][5][6]. Group 1: U.S.-China Agricultural Cooperation - The U.S. Soybean Export Council CEO emphasizes the natural synergy between the U.S. and China in agricultural trade, particularly in soybeans, due to China's large market and rapid development [2][5]. - Historical cooperation in agriculture between the U.S. and China dates back 43 years, with ongoing projects aimed at enhancing agricultural modernization and technology transfer [5][6]. - The establishment of the U.S.-China Soybean Product Application Value Chain Innovation Center in Zhengzhou is seen as a platform for deepening cooperation [5]. Group 2: Trade Dynamics and Economic Impact - In 2024, soybean exports from the U.S. are projected to reach $24.58 billion, accounting for 14% of total agricultural exports, with China purchasing over $12.64 billion worth of soybeans [5]. - The U.S. soybean market has faced significant challenges, with a 58% drop in imports from the U.S. to China in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [5]. - The U.S. agricultural sector is experiencing increased bankruptcy rates, with a 57% rise in farm bankruptcies in the first half of the year, attributed to the impacts of tariff policies [5][6]. Group 3: Market Challenges and Future Outlook - U.S. farmers are facing rising production costs, with soybean planting costs increasing nearly 50% since 2019, and current selling prices leading to significant losses [10]. - The article notes that U.S. farmers are concerned about climate change, which is affecting crop yields and weather patterns, further complicating their situation [10]. - The future market share of U.S. soybeans in China is expected to stabilize between 30% to 40%, down from over 50% during peak periods, indicating a cautious outlook for recovery [10][11].

2023年4月，中美大豆产品应用价值链创新中心在河南省郑州市落地。苏健认为，在基于40多年来中美 大豆产业合作的经验和成功基础之上建立的创新中心，为中美两国大豆产业的深化合作创造了更好的平 台和机会。 大豆对于美国农业及农产品出口至关重要。根据美国农业部的数据，2024年大豆以245.8亿美元的出口 额位居美国农产品出口首位，占农产品出口总额的14%。2024年，中国购买了价值126.4亿美元的大 豆，占美国大豆出口总额一半以上。 苏健说："美国的农民非常沮丧、非常失望、非常不满，一直在鼓励联邦政府和特朗普总统采取措施重 新恢复与中国的大豆贸易。" "其实我们早些时候计划参加进博会时，我还在思索届时能和大家交流些什么。"美国大豆出口协会 （USSEC）首席执行官（CEO）苏健（Jim Sutter）近日对第一财经记者谈及第八届中国国际进口博览 会（下称"进博会"）时表示，他在进博会上的所见所闻，以及与中国合作伙伴的交流让他松了口气。 "我始终觉得中美两国人民之间有一种天然的好感。中国的市场极其庞大，而且发展非常迅速，需要进 口农产品的原材料。在美国，我们产量远大于国内的消耗，所以中美之间存在一种非常自然的协同 ...

Core Insights - A "one-and-a-half track" diplomatic relationship is quietly being established between local governments in the U.S. and China, as U.S. state officials seek to secure access to the Chinese market amid export concerns [1][2] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Recent visits by local leaders from states like Washington and Oregon to China aim to preserve local jobs and maintain trade relationships [1][2] - The trade relationship is seen as essential for states like Washington, which is home to Boeing, as losing access to the Chinese market could severely impact the aerospace industry [2] - Oregon's trade with China, particularly in agricultural products and timber, has provided 35,000 jobs, highlighting the importance of maintaining good relations with China [2] Group 2: Political Dynamics - The visits by U.S. state officials to China represent a response to the federal government's policies, particularly under Trump's administration, which has increased federal power at the expense of state authority [4] - Recent electoral outcomes in blue and swing states indicate a backlash against Trump's policies, suggesting a shift in local governance dynamics [4] - The actions of state officials reflect a growing independence from federal policies, as they seek to establish their own trade relationships with China [4] Group 3: Future Implications - Despite potential legal challenges to Trump's tariffs, uncertainty in U.S.-China trade relations remains, necessitating strong state-level ties with China as a counterbalance [5] - The need for more diplomatic dialogue between the U.S. and China is emphasized, as local officials seek to fill gaps left by federal policies [5] - The question remains as to when other states, particularly those with high trade dependency on China, will follow the lead of Washington and Oregon in establishing independent diplomatic relations [5]