关于中日的关系，事情还在发酵。 很多人都疑问啊，为什么我们国力那么强，高市早苗竟然还敢出言不逊？ 从甲午战z、吞并朝X、侵H战Z、再到南下东南亚，他本质上一直都在做扩张的动作。 为什么那么小的国家，他敢这么做呢。 因为他知道，一旦赌赢了，收益远大于支出，而输了，代价又是可承担的。 那为什么不拼一把呢。 当年明治维新之后，小日子能迅速成长，你以为真的是他们厉害？ 那是因为他们在甲午战后从清朝获得两亿三千万两白银赔偿。 靠着这些赔偿，才能短时间内造出那么多工业品和军舰。 到底安的什么心。 我觉得大家不妨从一个投资的角度去看待日本，去看待高市早苗到底在做什么。 本质上就是做一场豪赌。 日本这个国家，面积小、能源又不足，对他们来说，守住这么一小方天地，肯定是不满足的。 所以你看近代史就知道，小日子一直在做扩张的动作。 最后靠着这些军舰，又能继续采取扩张行动。 所以小日子，太知道，一旦打赢，对他们来说，都是一场国运的转折点、 只要他找到机会，他就想快速的向外去咬一口。 对他们来说，机遇比成本更重要。 而对于高市早苗来说，现在也是一次大的政Z豪赌。 小日子是一个经济大国，但不是一个正常的政Z军事大国。 他们的安全是控制在 ...

（原标题：台海观澜 | 追加400亿美元军费，赖清德意欲何为） 11月25日，美国《华盛顿邮报》发表台湾领导人赖清德的一篇投稿。赖清德在文中宣布，台湾将推出一 项史无前例的400亿美元特别预算案，用于对美军购，提升台湾的非对称战力。 第二天（11月26日），赖清德召开了所谓安全会议，并在会后召开记者会，宣布台湾将在未来8年投入 1.25万亿新台币（400亿美元）打造先进防空系统"台湾之盾"，使得台军在2027年形成高战备能力，在 2033年进一步具备全面吓阻力，永久保卫台湾。 首先是对民意的影响。如果提高防卫预算能获得台湾民众正面响应，对绿营而言当然划得来。但台湾社 会对无休止的防卫预算，早就浮现负面声浪，对许多防卫项目也是不乏质疑与指控。如今追加预算，追 钟是能刺激选举票房，还是适得其反，确实值得思考。 其次就是对国际社会可能产生的效应。稳定安全的环境，是吸引外资的关键因素。追加防卫预算，有可 能弄巧成拙，让台湾投资风险系数无端升高，对绿营选举票房可能产生负面打击。 第三就是此举是否对大陆产生吓阻效应。评论认为："平心而论，就算是战略白痴都知道台北无法与北 京展开军备竞赛。""假若台北认为砸下1.25兆（万 ...

Core Points - The ongoing geopolitical tension involves Ukraine's request for U.S. "Tomahawk" missiles, which was met with a dismissive response from President Trump, indicating a lack of serious consideration [1] - The focus has shifted to nuclear weapons, with Russia showcasing new nuclear-powered weapons and the U.S. announcing a restart of nuclear tests [2][5] - The U.S. military successfully tested the "Minuteman III" intercontinental ballistic missile, which is a key component of its nuclear triad [7] Group 1 - Russia's President Putin awarded developers of the "Burevestnik" nuclear-powered cruise missile and the "Poseidon" nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicle, claiming these weapons will ensure security and strategic balance for decades [2] - The successful tests of the "Burevestnik" and "Poseidon" occurred within days of each other, highlighting Russia's advancements in nuclear capabilities [2][3] - Analysts suggest that Russia's actions aim to signal its ongoing technological innovations in nuclear strike systems and to assert that NATO's military deterrence will not undermine its strategic capabilities [3][4] Group 2 - President Trump announced the restart of U.S. nuclear tests, citing the need to respond to other countries' testing programs, although the Energy Secretary clarified that these tests would not involve nuclear explosions [5][8] - The U.S. conducted a test of the "Minuteman III" missile to assess its reliability and operational readiness, with the missile capable of carrying three nuclear warheads and a range of 12,500 kilometers [7] - In response to U.S. actions, President Putin indicated that Russia would take reciprocal measures if the U.S. or other signatories of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty conducted nuclear tests [8]

Core Insights - The company reported significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 44.82% to reach 1.23 billion yuan, contributing to a total revenue of 3.42 billion yuan for the first three quarters, up 25.95% year-on-year [1] - Despite rising operating costs and impairment provisions impacting short-term profits, the company has narrowed its losses significantly, with a net profit of -58.82 million yuan for the first three quarters, a reduction of 2.30% year-on-year, and a Q3 net profit of -18.11 million yuan, down 82.72% year-on-year [1] Revenue Growth Potential - The company experienced a substantial increase in contract liabilities, which rose by 208.71% to 2.09 billion yuan, indicating strong future revenue growth potential [2] - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 8.7 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 90% increase from 2024, with expectations for a surge in order deliveries in Q4 [2] Market Drivers - The company is positioned to benefit from both domestic demand and foreign trade, particularly in the smart ammunition sector, as it is a leading player in the ammunition assembly industry [3] - The company is expected to capitalize on the growing foreign trade opportunities, with a projected 293% increase in related sales to 2 billion yuan in 2025, driven by the global arms race [4] Profit Forecast - The company's performance is anticipated to accelerate with ongoing contract signings and deliveries, with projected net profits of 53 million yuan, 528 million yuan, and 815 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government expresses opposition to the AUKUS security partnership among the US, UK, and Australia, highlighting concerns over nuclear proliferation and military competition [1] Group 1 - The AUKUS agreement is being actively promoted, indicating support from former President Trump for the trilateral security pact established during the Biden administration [1] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry has reiterated its stance against the formation of military alliances that exacerbate tensions and increase nuclear proliferation risks [1] - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the AUKUS agreement since Trump's return to power has been acknowledged [1]

Core Points - A new round of negotiations between Russia and the United States is scheduled to take place before the end of this fall, although no specific date has been set yet [2] - Russia is currently awaiting a response from the U.S. regarding President Putin's proposal on reducing strategic weapons treaties, emphasizing the need to ensure its own security amid a new arms race initiated by the U.S. [2] - Russia has been requesting the U.S. to restore direct flights between the two countries [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. White House has expressed a positive stance on Russia's proposal to continue adhering to the New START treaty regulations for one year after its expiration, indicating potential diplomatic engagement between the two nations [1] Group 1: U.S. Position - White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that President Trump is aware of Russia's proposal and intends to make a public comment on it [1] - Trump has expressed his willingness to personally handle the proposal, suggesting a proactive approach from the U.S. side [1] Group 2: Russia's Position - President Putin, during a meeting of the Russian Security Council, expressed confidence in the reliability of Russia's deterrent forces but stated there is no intention to engage in an arms race [1] - Putin proposed that the U.S. should maintain the status quo established by the New START treaty and indicated Russia's willingness to adhere to the treaty's weapon quantity limits for one year after its expiration on February 5, 2026, if agreed upon by President Trump [1]

Core Points - Russian President Putin emphasized the severe damage to constructive relations and practical cooperation among nuclear states due to destructive actions by Western countries [1] - The treaty system regarding nuclear missile and strategic defense weapon control between the US and Russia is nearly completely dismantled [1] - Russia is confident in its deterrent capabilities and is enhancing its defense capabilities in response to changing global circumstances [1][2] Group 1 - Putin stated that the expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2026, marks the end of the last agreement directly limiting nuclear missile capabilities [1] - The abandonment of the treaty's achievements would be a short-sighted mistake and negatively impact the goals of the Non-Proliferation Treaty [1] - Russia is prepared to continue adhering to the strategic weapon quantity limits established by the New START treaty for one year after its expiration [2] Group 2 - The continuation of these limits is contingent upon the US taking similar actions and not undermining the existing nuclear deterrent balance [2] - Russian authorities are instructed to closely monitor US actions related to nuclear deterrence [2]

Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector experienced significant movement, with Hongda Electronics leading with a rise of 6.38%, Plittech up by 5.26%, and Huafeng Technology increasing by 4.65% [1] - The defense military ETF (512810) saw a price increase of over 1% in the market [1] - China Galaxy Securities suggests that the defense and military sector is expected to stabilize as the fund adjustment period post "September 3" approaches its end [3] Group 2 - The upcoming procurement of equipment under the "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to boost upstream orders, with a positive outlook for order growth in the fourth quarter [3] - NATO countries are significantly increasing military spending, indicating an escalation in the global arms race, while China's military expenditure has considerable room for growth [3] - The long-term outlook for the military industry is optimistic, with the potential for increased domestic demand and military trade, especially in light of the India-Pakistan conflict [3] Group 3 - The defense military ETF (512810) is highlighted as an efficient investment tool, covering various themes such as commercial aerospace, deep-sea technology, military AI, low-altitude economy, and large aircraft [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government expresses strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to the deployment of the THAAD missile system by the US and Japan, viewing it as a significant threat to regional security and stability [1] Group 1: Diplomatic Relations - The Chinese Foreign Ministry criticizes the US and Japan for disregarding China's serious concerns and insists that the deployment of the THAAD system undermines the legitimate security interests of other countries [1] - China urges the US and Japan to respect the security concerns of regional nations and to take actions that contribute positively to regional peace and stability [1] Group 2: Regional Security Concerns - The deployment of the THAAD missile system is seen as escalating the arms race and increasing military confrontation risks in the region [1] - The historical context of Japan's militaristic past is highlighted, emphasizing the need for Japan to reflect on its history of aggression and to pursue a peaceful path in military security matters [1]