2 证券研究报告|公司深度研究报告 楚江新材：特种碳纤维预制体核心企业， 半导体、机器人多点开花 华西军工团队 2025年10月9日 首席分析师：陆洲 SAC NO：S1120520110001 邮箱：luzhou@hx168.com.cn 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 核心逻辑: 国内铜基材料龙头，加速高端化转型 公司产品包括精密铜带、铜导体材料、铜合金线材、精密特钢、碳纤维复合材料和高端热工装备六大产业。其中：精密铜带年产能超30万吨， 位居国内第一，向全球第一迈进；碳纤维预制件位居国内龙头地位；高端导体、合金线材、高端热工装备均位于国内行业头部位置。近年来， 公司通过多轮并购及资本运作，实现：1）铜基材料高端化升级；2）进军军工新材料。25H1实现营收288.03亿元，同比+16.05%；归母净 利2.51亿元，同比+48.83%。随着公司产品升级及技术改造项目的陆续投产并达产，公司产销规模、营业收入继续保持稳定增长。 天鸟高新（控股90%）为国内航空航天碳纤维预制体核心供应商，下游订单爆发在即 天鸟高新是国内飞机碳刹车预制体、特种纤维立体仿形预制体及碳纤维热场预制体的原创企业，产品应用于航空航 ...

点击 最 下方 "在看"和" "并分享，"关注"材料汇 添加 小编微信 ，遇见 志同道合 的你 正文 主要内容： 军工材料乃是军工行业之基石 军工材料是按材料用途分类的重要应用领域。由于军工装备工作环境的苛刻性，军工材料多需要在极端条件下能够正常工作，尤其是航空航天对结构材料要求更 高，因此这些军工材料一般需要具有 高强度、耐高温、耐腐蚀、低密度等多种性能特点 。对于此类具有优异特性和功能，能满足军用高性能需求的材料，我们称 为军工材料或军工高端材料。 1、先进军工材料打造先进武器装备 "一代武器、一代材料" 。在各个时代，最先进的技术最早往往为军事用途服务。材料在国防工业中占据着举足轻重的作用，而 军工新材料是高端武器装备发展的 先决要素 。 以航空发动机为例，其性能的改进一半靠材料。据《航空发动机的发展趋势及其对材料的需求》预测， 新材料、新工艺和新结构对推重比12-15一级发动机的贡献 率将达到 50%以上，从未来发展来看，甚至可占约 2/3 。可以说 没有先进的材料和制造技术就没有更先进的航空发动机 。 因此 军工新材料是新一代武器装备的物质基础，也是当今世界军事领域的关键技术 。世界各国对军用新材料 ...

Group 1: Military Industry New Materials - The price of electrolytic cobalt is 263,000 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week, with a cobalt price ratio of 0.86, down 0.5% [4] - Carbon fiber price is 83.8 CNY/kg, unchanged from the previous week, with a gross profit of -8.59 CNY/kg [4] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Materials - The price of Li2O 5% lithium concentrate at China's port is 726 USD/ton, down 9.81% [5] - The prices of battery-grade lithium hydroxide, industrial-grade lithium hydroxide, and electric carbon are 78,900 CNY/ton, 77,000 CNY/ton, and 76,200 CNY/ton, down 4.2%, 4.35%, and 1.1% respectively [5] - The price of sulfuric cobalt is 53,200 CNY/ton, up 0.19% [5] - The prices of lithium iron phosphate and 523-type cathode materials are 34,300 CNY/ton and 113,300 CNY/ton, unchanged and down 0.4% respectively [5] - The price of neodymium oxide is 579.72 CNY/kg, down 2.9% [5] Group 3: Photovoltaic New Materials - The price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 6.20 USD/kg, unchanged from the previous week [6] - The price of EVA is 10,800 CNY/ton, up 2.9%, remaining at a low level since 2013 [6] - The price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass coating is 24.0 CNY/sqm, unchanged [6] Group 4: Nuclear Power New Materials - The prices of zirconium-related materials are stable, with prices for zirconium oxychloride, sponge zirconium, hafnium oxide, zirconium silicate, and zircon sand remaining unchanged [7] - The uranium price for June 2025 is 59.58 USD/lb, up 4.0% [7] Group 5: Consumer Electronics New Materials - The price of cobalt tetroxide is 213,000 CNY/ton, up 0.47% [9] - The price of lithium cobalt oxide is 175.0 CNY/kg, unchanged [9] - The prices of silicon carbide, high-purity gallium, crude indium, and refined indium are 5,300.00 CNY/ton, 1,755.00 CNY/kg, 2,445.00 CNY/kg, and 2,545.00 CNY/kg respectively, with high-purity gallium remaining unchanged and crude and refined indium down 1.2% [9] Group 6: Other Materials - The prices of platinum, rhodium, and iridium are 326.00 CNY/g, 1,815.00 CNY/g, and 1,195.00 CNY/g respectively, with rhodium down 1.1% [10]

Group 1 - Military materials are the cornerstone of the military industry, requiring high strength, high temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, and low density to meet the extreme conditions of military equipment [2][39]. - The development of advanced military materials is crucial for the advancement of high-end weaponry, with new materials contributing significantly to the performance of military equipment, particularly in aerospace applications [3][39]. - The demand for high-performance materials such as titanium alloys, high-temperature alloys, and composite materials is increasing due to the rapid deployment of new military equipment [5][6]. Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to see rapid expansion in military materials, driven by accelerated deployment of new military equipment and a shift towards domestic production [6][7]. - The market demand for high-end titanium alloys, carbon fibers, and high-temperature alloys is projected to grow at compound annual growth rates of 20%, 25%, and 16% respectively, with market sizes expected to exceed 100 billion, 200 billion, and 300 billion yuan by 2025 [7]. - The transition of military materials to civilian applications is anticipated to provide a second growth driver for the industry, as technological advancements open up new markets [8][9]. Group 3 - Titanium alloys are highlighted as a key material for new military equipment due to their low density, high strength, and corrosion resistance, with applications in aerospace and naval sectors [10][11]. - High-temperature alloys are essential for modern aerospace engines, with increasing demand and supply constraints indicating a robust growth phase for the industry [13][39]. - Aluminum alloys remain the most widely used metal materials in military applications, with a trend towards high-performance materials gradually replacing them [40]. Group 4 - Carbon fibers and their composites are recognized as strategic materials for national defense, with significant growth in demand driven by military applications [14][39]. - The domestic production of aramid fibers is currently low, presenting substantial opportunities for import substitution as demand in defense and security sectors rises [15]. - Ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) fibers are becoming the preferred material for ballistic protection, with anticipated growth in military applications as domestic production capabilities improve [16]. Group 5 - Stealth materials are critical for the development of military equipment, with advancements in radar and infrared stealth technologies driving demand [17][18]. - Advanced ceramics are increasingly important in military applications, particularly in structural and electronic components, with ongoing development needed to catch up with international standards [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guotai Group [3][5] Core Views - Guotai Group's revenue for the first half of 2025 was CNY 1.059 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.03%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 121 million, down 11.14% year-on-year. The decline in performance is attributed to increased depreciation and financial costs from a subsidiary, intensified competition in the potassium perchlorate production industry, and a reduction in government subsidies compared to the previous year [1][2] - The company is the only civil explosive production enterprise in Jiangxi Province, with a sales volume of 55,300 tons of industrial packaged explosives and revenue of CNY 332 million in the first half of 2025. The company is actively expanding its main business and has successfully acquired 49% of Longsi Technology, making it a wholly-owned subsidiary [2] - The energetic new materials project is progressing well, with qualified products produced in the first half of 2025. The company has invested CNY 340 million to build a production line with an annual capacity of 3,000 to 4,300 tons [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Guotai Group reported a net cash flow from operating activities of CNY 142 million, an increase of 16.73% year-on-year [1] - The projected net profit for 2025 is CNY 340 million, with expected growth rates of 88.07% in 2026 and 19.49% in 2027 [3][4] Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 2.541 billion in 2023 to CNY 3.609 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.65% [4][10] - The gross profit margin is projected to remain stable around 36.5% to 38.3% from 2025 to 2027 [12] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 27 in 2023 to 16 in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [13] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 9.72% in 2025 to 12.39% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 16.82 [1][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was RMB 1.059 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.03%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 121 million, down 11.14% year-on-year. The decline in performance is attributed to increased depreciation and financial costs from a subsidiary, intensified competition in the potassium perchlorate production industry, and a reduction in government subsidies compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company is expected to benefit from the successful advancement of its energetic materials production line and increased demand for civil explosives driven by infrastructure projects like the Gan-Yue Canal [1][2]. Business Segments Summary Civil Explosives - Industrial explosives sales volume in H1 2025 was 55,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.29%, with revenue of RMB 332 million, down 2.05%. The average selling price was RMB 6,005.25 per ton, a decrease of 4.24% year-on-year [2]. - Electronic detonators sold 11.2368 million units, with revenue of RMB 144 million, down 20.09% year-on-year, and an average selling price of RMB 12.77 per unit, down 8.51% [2]. - Blasting engineering sales volume was 26.2629 million cubic meters, with revenue of RMB 210 million, down 1.42% year-on-year [2]. Energetic Materials - The construction of the energetic materials production line is progressing smoothly, with the first line having produced qualified products. The project is expected to enhance the company's long-term growth potential [3][4]. Military New Materials - The company has signed contracts for small solid rocket propellers with over 20 clients, totaling RMB 14.2251 million. It is positioned as a domestic leader in the field of military drone rocket boosters [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast remains unchanged, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at RMB 358 million, RMB 459 million, and RMB 579 million, respectively. The report assigns a PE ratio of 29 times for 2025, raising the target price to RMB 16.82 from RMB 14.50 [5][10].

Group 1: Metal New Materials - The price of rhodium has increased for two consecutive months, while the price of lithium concentrate has also risen, reaching approximately 70,000 yuan/ton. Supply disruptions from the suspension of lithium mines are expected to elevate lithium prices in the short term [4] - The price of rhenium powder has risen, indicating a recovery in demand for military new materials [4] - The price of zirconium oxychloride has decreased in the nuclear power new materials sector, while silicon carbide prices have dropped in the consumer electronics new materials category [4] Group 2: Longqing Co., Ltd. (002391.SZ) - Longqing Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 2.083 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 42 million yuan, up 117.8% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Oriental Cable (603606.SH) - Oriental Cable's revenue for H1 2025 was 4.432 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.95%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 26.57% to 473 million yuan due to delays in offshore wind construction [5] Group 4: Lian Microelectronics (605358.SH) - Lian Microelectronics expects to achieve a revenue of 1.666 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 14.19%. However, the company anticipates a net loss of 121 million yuan, which is an increase in losses compared to the previous year [6] Group 5: Stone Technology (688169.SH) - Stone Technology reported total revenue of 7.9 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 79%. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 40% to 700 million yuan [7] Group 6: Ecovacs Robotics (603486.SH) - Ecovacs Robotics achieved a revenue of 8.7 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 61% to 1 billion yuan [8] Group 7: Tianshili (600535.SH) - Tianshili reported revenue of 4.288 billion yuan for H1 2025, a slight decrease of 1.91%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 16.97% to 775 million yuan [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen increased research interest in military industry concept stocks since May, with Jiangxi Guotai Group focusing on strengthening its integrated civil explosives industry and military new materials as a new growth engine [1] - In Q1 2025, Jiangxi Guotai Group reported revenue of 483 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.26%, while its net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 39.66 million yuan, an increase of 17.09% year-on-year [1] - The domestic civil explosives industry is showing a stable recovery, with increased demand and production, and Jiangxi Guotai Group's performance is better than the national average [1] Group 2 - Jiangxi Guotai Group is one of the most comprehensive manufacturers of civil explosive materials in China, with its products fully covering Jiangxi province [2] - The civil explosives industry is expected to see significant growth due to ongoing infrastructure projects, with a trend towards increased industry concentration and the adoption of digital electronic detonators [2] - The future may see the emergence of 3 to 5 large civil explosive groups with strong international competitiveness, optimizing product structure and capacity layout [2] Group 3 - The global military new materials market is steadily growing, driven by the increasing demands of modern military equipment [3] - Jiangxi Guotai Group's military new materials business is primarily conducted through its subsidiaries, focusing on tantalum and niobium products, with stable production of metallurgical-grade tantalum and niobium oxides [3] - High-purity niobium is crucial for superconducting magnets in nuclear fusion devices, indicating a significant application potential in advanced scientific fields [3] Group 4 - Jiangxi Guotai Group is set to make significant breakthroughs in energetic new materials, with a planned investment of 340 million yuan to build a production line for flexible energetic new materials [4] - The market demand for energetic materials is strong, and the new production line is expected to significantly enhance the company's performance and profitability [4] - This project will help bridge the gap between the military new materials and civil explosives industries, creating new growth momentum for the company [4]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - Short-term focus on the new order cycle and accelerated delivery leading to improved capacity utilization and reduced variable costs, indicating a potential turnaround for companies in the sector [2] - Long-term attention on the reform dividends from equipment procurement and supply system changes, emphasizing the strategic importance of the types of equipment produced and the innovative leadership in processes, materials, and components [2] Summary by Sections 2024A & 2025Q1 Financial Analysis - The defense and military industry reported total revenue of 680.77 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year decline of 2.09%, with a net profit of 24.22 billion yuan, down 38.69% year-over-year [5][9] - The first quarter of 2025 showed total revenue of 130.11 billion yuan, a decline of 2.84% year-over-year, with a net profit of 6.22 billion yuan, down 18.37% year-over-year [5][9] - The industry is expected to enter a new procurement cycle in 2025, following the resolution of negative factors affecting performance [5][9] Structural Differentiation - The recovery of the sector is accompanied by increasing structural differentiation among various sub-sectors and companies, with significant growth in missile-related operations and fixed assets maintaining over 10% growth [5][9] - The industry is characterized by a co-existence of downward cycles in performance and upward cycles in supply-side capabilities, indicating a solid long-term fundamental outlook [5][9] Key Companies to Watch - Companies to focus on include: - Aviation mainframe manufacturers: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Harbin Aircraft, AVIC Engine, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft [16][17] - New materials: Fushun Special Steel, Steel Research Institute, and others [19][20] - Military electronics: Huazhong University of Science and Technology, and others [21][22] - Missile manufacturers: North Navigation, and others [30][31] Financial Metrics - The overall gross margin for the defense and military sector was 19.77% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 3.56% [9][10] - The sector's fixed assets and construction in progress grew by 6.86% in 2024, indicating ongoing investment despite short-term challenges [14][26] Market Trends - The industry is witnessing a shift towards informationization and smart technologies, with new models expected to drive demand in the coming years [23] - The focus on military-civilian integration is expected to enhance the growth of new materials, with increasing penetration of military applications in civilian products [20]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the defense and military industry, indicating a potential recovery in performance as the new procurement cycle begins in 2025, following a challenging 2024 [1][5][9] - Short-term focus should be on the acceleration of delivery and improved capacity utilization, while long-term attention should be on the reform benefits from equipment procurement and supply chain changes [2] 2024 Financial Performance - The defense and military sector reported total revenue of 680.77 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year decline of 2.09%, with a net profit of 24.22 billion yuan, down 38.69% [5][9][12] - The overall gross margin stabilized at 19.77%, despite a decrease in net margin to 3.56% [9][10] 2025 Q1 Performance - In Q1 2025, the sector generated revenue of 130.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.84% year-over-year, with a net profit of 6.22 billion yuan, down 18.37% [5][9] - Positive signals from upstream inventory replenishment were noted, particularly in military electronics, which saw a revenue increase of 12.03% [5][9] Structural Differentiation - The report highlights increasing structural differentiation among various segments within the defense sector, with missile and related transactions expected to see significant growth in 2025 [5][9][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic direction in equipment models and the innovation of processes, materials, and components [2][5] Key Segments to Watch - Notable companies to focus on include: - **Aerospace and Engine Manufacturing**: Companies like Runbei Aerospace, Aero Engine Corporation, and Longda Co. are highlighted for their potential in domestic production [5][9] - **Military Electronics**: Companies such as Zhonghang Guangdian and Aerospace Electronics are recommended for their roles in the evolving military electronics landscape [5][22] - **New Materials**: Companies like Fushun Special Steel and Steel Research High-Tech are noted for their growth driven by military-civilian integration [5][20] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability and performance as the sector transitions from destocking to restocking phases, particularly in 2025 [5][9][23] - The ongoing reforms in the military procurement and supply chain are expected to create new growth opportunities for companies that can adapt to the changing landscape [2][5][26]