点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 民爆一体化区域龙头，上半年发展稳步向前 公司是江西省唯一的民爆生产企业，渠道覆盖江西省、粤东地区。上半年，公司实现销售工业包装炸药 5.53万吨，营业收入3.32亿元；销售电子雷管1123.68万发，营业收入1.44亿元；爆破一体化服务收入2.10 亿元。公司积极推进民爆主业适度扩张，2025年成功收购控股子公司龙狮科技49%股权使之成为全资子公 司。同时，公司大力拓展泛民爆业务，新产品研发有序推进。上半年，公司业务市场拓展与区域布局成效 显著，电子雷管产品成功进驻西藏市场，基本形成全国销售布局。 含能新材料项目进展顺利，上半年已产出合格产品 2024年5月公司公告，对全资孙公司九江国泰增资3.4亿元，用于建设年产3000吨-4300 ...

基础化工/化学制品 雅化集团（002497.SZ） Q2 锂价下行拖累公司业绩，看好公司长期成长 2025 年 08 月 22 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/21 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 14.00 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 16.65/7.98 | | 总市值(亿元) | 161.36 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 148.20 | | 总股本(亿股) | 11.53 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 10.59 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 340.9 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 雅化集团 沪深300 相关研究报告 《Q1 利润同比大幅增长，锂精矿自给 率提升在即—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.5.7 《锂业+民爆"双主业"并行，未来业 绩增长可期—公司首次覆盖报告》 -2025.2.25 | 金益腾（分析师） | 蒋跨跃（分析师） | 李思佳（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.c ...

2025 年 8 月 22 日 公司研究 民爆业务发展稳步向前，含能新材料项目进展顺利 ——国泰集团（603977.SH）2025 年半年报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。公司 2025 年上半年实现营业收入 10.59 亿元，同比下降 6.03%；实现归母净利润 1.21 亿元，同比下降 11.14%。上半 年经营活动产生的现金流量净额为 1.42 亿元，同比增长 16.73%。根据公告， 上半年公司业绩下滑主要有三方面原因。控股子公司江西宏泰物流项目验收后， 计提折旧费用和财务费用增加；控股子公司江西永宁受高氯酸钾生产行业竞争加 剧影响，业绩同比出现下滑；上年同期收到省级工业发展专项计划资金 1000 万 元，本年计入当期损益的政府补助较上年减少。 民爆一体化区域龙头，上半年发展稳步向前。公司是江西省唯一的民爆生产企业， 渠道覆盖江西省、粤东地区。上半年，公司实现销售工业包装炸药 5.53 万吨， 营业收入 3.32 亿元；销售电子雷管 1123.68 万发，营业收入 1.44 亿元；爆破一 体化服务收入 2.10 亿元。公司积极推进民爆主业适度扩张，2025 年成功收购控 股子公司龙 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2][14]. Core Views - The company's main profit contribution in the first half of 2025 came from its civil explosives business, while the lithium segment is expected to recover in the second half due to the ramp-up of self-controlled lithium mines and downstream capacity expansion [3][14]. - The target price for the company is set at 17.00 yuan, reflecting a 20x PE valuation for 2026, considering the expected growth in lithium production and stable demand in the civil explosives sector [14]. Financial Summary - The company achieved total revenue of 34.23 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.0%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.36 billion yuan, up 32.9% year-on-year [14]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 18.86 billion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year but up 22.7% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 0.53 billion yuan, down 38.9% year-on-year and 35.4% quarter-on-quarter [14]. - The lithium business faced challenges due to a significant drop in lithium prices, with the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide falling by 26.97% year-on-year to 67,401 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025 [14]. Business Segments - The civil explosives segment reported revenue of 14.65 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 3.7% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.53 billion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year [14]. - The company is expected to see improvements in its lithium business in the second half of 2025 as self-controlled mines ramp up production and the price gap in refining improves [14]. - The civil explosives business has a diversified target market, with market shares of 5% and 11% for industrial explosives and electronic detonators, respectively, and a significant presence in the Sichuan region [14].

国泰集团主营业务为民用爆破器材的研发、生产、销售及爆破服务一体化，是全国产品种类最齐全的民 用爆破器材生产企业之一。近年来，公司在不断扩大民爆器材生产和销售规模的同时，还积极为矿山、 基建项目等提供爆破一体化服务。 作为江西省唯一民爆生产企业，国泰集团深耕民爆行业多年，目前拥有工业炸药生产许可17.4万吨，其 中现场混装许可产能占比达到30%。今年上半年，公司大力开拓市场，拓展爆破服务一体化业务，推动 民爆技术创新和经营质量提升，不断加大销售攻坚力度，民爆产业发展持续稳固。报告期内，公司销售 工业包装炸药5.53万吨，营业收入3.32亿元；销售电子雷管1123.68万发，营业收入1.43亿元；爆破一体 化服务收入2.1亿元。 本报记者曹琦 8月21日，江西国泰集团股份有限公司（以下简称"国泰集团"）公布2025年半年度报告显示，今年上半 年面对全国民爆产业内卷加剧的不利局面，公司经营层坚持目标导向和问题导向相统一，细化工作举 措、狠抓经营调度，整合资源和力量全力推动生产经营保持了平稳态势。 报告期内，公司实现营业收入10.59亿元，归属于上市公司股东的净利润1.2亿元，归属于上市公司股东 的扣除非经常性损益的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 16.82 [1][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was RMB 1.059 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.03%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 121 million, down 11.14% year-on-year. The decline in performance is attributed to increased depreciation and financial costs from a subsidiary, intensified competition in the potassium perchlorate production industry, and a reduction in government subsidies compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company is expected to benefit from the successful advancement of its energetic materials production line and increased demand for civil explosives driven by infrastructure projects like the Gan-Yue Canal [1][2]. Business Segments Summary Civil Explosives - Industrial explosives sales volume in H1 2025 was 55,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.29%, with revenue of RMB 332 million, down 2.05%. The average selling price was RMB 6,005.25 per ton, a decrease of 4.24% year-on-year [2]. - Electronic detonators sold 11.2368 million units, with revenue of RMB 144 million, down 20.09% year-on-year, and an average selling price of RMB 12.77 per unit, down 8.51% [2]. - Blasting engineering sales volume was 26.2629 million cubic meters, with revenue of RMB 210 million, down 1.42% year-on-year [2]. Energetic Materials - The construction of the energetic materials production line is progressing smoothly, with the first line having produced qualified products. The project is expected to enhance the company's long-term growth potential [3][4]. Military New Materials - The company has signed contracts for small solid rocket propellers with over 20 clients, totaling RMB 14.2251 million. It is positioned as a domestic leader in the field of military drone rocket boosters [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast remains unchanged, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at RMB 358 million, RMB 459 million, and RMB 579 million, respectively. The report assigns a PE ratio of 29 times for 2025, raising the target price to RMB 16.82 from RMB 14.50 [5][10].

Group 1: Company Overview - Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group is a leading producer of lithium salt products, particularly battery-grade lithium hydroxide, with industry-leading production technology and automation [2] - The company has a strong market position in the civil explosives industry, ranking fourth in total production value as of 2024, with electronic detonator sales leading the industry for several consecutive years [2] Group 2: Lithium Business - The company has established a diversified lithium resource assurance system through self-controlled and purchased mines, with a processing capacity of 2.3 million tons of raw ore annually from the Kamativi lithium mine in Zimbabwe [4] - Major customers for lithium salts include global leaders such as TESLA, LGES, and domestic companies like CATL, with top clients accounting for 90% of revenue as of 2024 [3] Group 3: Civil Explosives Business - The civil explosives business covers multiple regions including Sichuan, Tibet, Xinjiang, and extends to international markets such as Australia and Zimbabwe [5][6] - The company is focused on expanding its mining service business in overseas markets while maintaining strong relationships with large domestic clients [2] Group 4: Risk Management - The company employs futures contracts for lithium carbonate to hedge against price fluctuations, aiming to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to meeting the demands of electronic detonators in complex environments, particularly in high-altitude and cold geological conditions, by establishing a rigorous supplier selection and cooperation mechanism [1] Group 1 - The company has industry-leading capacity and technical strength in electronic detonators [1] - The company is focused on optimizing its supply chain system to enhance product competitiveness in various engineering project requirements [1] - The company has already established stable cooperation with domestic enterprises capable of adapting to extreme environments for core control module selection [1]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Motuo Hydropower Station Project Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Hydropower and Explosives Industry - **Company**: Various companies involved in the construction and supply for the Motuo Hydropower Station project, including China Electric Power Construction, China Energy Construction, and local explosive companies like Gaozheng Minbao, Yipuli, and Baoli United. Core Points and Arguments - **Project Overview**: The Motuo Hydropower Station has a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, with plans to construct five tiered power stations and a core 50 km water diversion tunnel, aiming for a total installed capacity of 6,000 to 7,000 kilowatts and an expected annual power generation of 300 billion kilowatt-hours, which can supply electricity for 300 million people [1][2]. - **Strategic Significance**: The project will replace 90 million tons of coal, reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 300 million tons, optimize the energy structure in Eastern China, create approximately 200,000 jobs, and enhance military response capabilities at the border. It may also facilitate electricity exports to Bangladesh and Myanmar, increasing China's influence in South Asia [2]. - **Investment Breakdown**: The construction period is approximately ten years, with infrastructure investment accounting for 50% of the total investment. The project will require 250,000 tons of industrial explosives and 360 million electronic detonators, significantly benefiting the explosives industry [1][4]. - **Comparison with the Three Gorges Project**: The Motuo project will use a larger quantity of explosives compared to the Three Gorges Project, with total investment being four to five times greater. The Three Gorges Project used over 50,000 tons of explosives, while Motuo's requirements are expected to be much higher due to its geological and construction challenges [5][10]. - **Current Progress**: As of 2023, preliminary work has focused on geological data collection, traffic tunnel construction, and surface blasting, with approximately 6,000 tons of explosives already used [6][7]. - **Peak Usage of Explosives**: The peak period for explosive usage is anticipated to be from the third to the eighth year of construction (around 2027-2028), after which the demand will decrease as the focus shifts to equipment installation [8]. - **Market Share and Revenue**: Gaozheng Minbao is expected to capture about 50% of the market share for explosives, generating approximately 30 billion yuan in revenue with a profit margin of around 10% [3][17]. - **Explosive Pricing**: Prices for explosives in Tibet vary by region, with costs around 13,000 yuan per ton in Lhasa and up to 20,000 yuan in remote areas. The overall service fees for blasting are relatively fixed, including monthly service fees and operational costs [13][14]. - **Profitability of Explosives**: The profit margin for explosives in the region is higher than in mainland China, positively impacting the overall profitability of the Motuo project. The estimated revenue from explosives could reach around 35 billion yuan based on projected usage [23][24]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Geological Challenges**: The complex geological conditions and transportation difficulties in the region significantly affect construction progress and the reliance on blasting rather than tunneling machines [26]. - **Supplier Involvement**: Various companies are involved in different aspects of the project, including cement supply from Huaxin Cement and road construction by Xizang Tianlu, which are included in the total investment [21][32]. - **Bidding and Contracting**: The bidding process for the project has been ongoing, with several companies already confirmed to participate in construction tasks [35]. - **Impact on Local Economy**: The project is expected to have a substantial impact on the local economy, providing jobs and boosting the demand for local materials and services [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant investment and potential opportunities arising from the construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which is expected to ignite enthusiasm in the capital market and lead to a surge in related stocks [3][8]. Group 1: Investment and Design Construction - Major beneficiaries in the investment and design construction sector are China Power Construction (601669) and China Energy Engineering (601868.SH), both state-owned enterprises expected to play a crucial role in the hydropower project [8]. - In Q1 of this year, China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering reported revenues of 142.74 billion and 100.37 billion respectively [9]. - China Power Construction is responsible for over 80% of river planning and more than 65% of large and medium-sized hydropower station construction tasks in China [11]. Group 2: Explosives and Cement - The initial phase of the hydropower project will heavily rely on the explosives and cement industries, with companies like Gaozheng Explosives (002827.SZ) and Poly United (002037.SZ) being key players [14][18]. - Gaozheng Explosives has a total explosive production capacity of 22,000 tons and reported a revenue of 300 million in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [19]. - Poly United has a significant market presence in the explosives sector, with a production capacity of nearly 470,000 tons of industrial explosives and 16.165 million electronic detonators [21][22]. Group 3: Engineering and Equipment - In addition to the previously mentioned companies, other key players in the engineering and equipment sector include Flantech (603966.SH), Dongfang Electric (600875.SH), and China Railway Heavy Industry (688425.SH) [30]. - Flantech, a leader in the industrial crane sector, is expected to benefit from the peak installation phase of hydropower stations, with a contract liability growth of 42.9% in Q1 [34]. - Dongfang Electric has a market share of 41.6% in pumped storage and 45% in conventional hydropower, with a revenue increase of 14.9% in 2024 [39].