智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，2025年国防军工板块迎来基本面与市场表现的双重拐点，行 业终结"增收不增利"困局，迈入"订单兑现+业绩驱动"的高质量发展阶段。2026年作为"十五五"开局之 年，板块将迎来需求刚性化、结构高端化与财务健康化的关键转折，投资主线聚焦军贸出口、新质战斗 力、军民融合及资产证券化四大高确定性方向。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 2025年国防军工板块迎来基本面与市场表现的双重拐点 风险提示 1)行业订单不及预期的风险，2)新技术新产品应用进度不及预期的风险；3)价格波动超出预期；4)相关 改革进展不及预期。 作为"十五五"规划开局之年与建军百年奋斗目标冲刺前夜，军工行业将迎来需求刚性化、结构高端化与 财务健康化的关键转折：核心判断有五：一是订单确定性显著增强，"十四五"尾单集中交付与"十五 五"新规划启动形成双轮驱动；二是需求结构加速向新质战斗力和消耗性作战能力倾斜；三是军贸成为 第二增长曲线，体系化出口打开高端市场天花板；四是军民融合深化，商业航天、低空经济、核聚变等 方向实现"军技民用、双向赋能"；五是财务质量全面改善，现金流与盈利能力进入上行通道，估值逻辑 从主题博弈转向基 ...

地缘风险升温，今日军工板块全线上涨。 不过，消息面的刺激属于短期因素，中长期的催化，还得是基本面。 首先要提的，是"十五五"规划。 其中，国证航天指数上涨1.76%，涨幅居军工主题指数第一，跟踪该指数的航空航天ETF(159227)上涨1.97%。 值得一提的是，军工板块自9月3日以来持续回调，国证航天、军工龙头、中证国防、中证军工指数期内跌幅超7%，但国证航天指数是唯一获得资金"越跌 越抄底"的军工主题指数，期内相关ETF净流入额超12亿元。 短期催化 | | | 9月3日以来ETF军工主题指数表现一览 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 指数代码 | 指数名称 | 区间净流入额（亿元） | 区间涨跌幅(%) | | 1 | CN5082.CNI | 国证航天 | 12.54 | -9.40 | | 2 | 931066.CSI | 军工龙头 | -1.16 | -8.24 | | 3 | 399967.SZ | 中证军工 | -7.33 | -8.13 | | 4 | 399973.SZ | 中证国防 | -0.95 | -7.47 | | | | 数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The military industry is positioned as a high-potential investment sector driven by national security needs, military trade exports, and technological innovation through civil-military integration [1][3][4] Industry Dynamics - The military industry is experiencing a positive trend characterized by "economic recovery, value reassessment, and event-driven catalysts" [3] - The defense industry reported a revenue growth of 6.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters, reversing a decline of 0.57% in the first half of the year [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders improved from -8.59% in the first half to 0.02% in the third quarter, indicating a recovery in industry performance [3] Investment Opportunities - The military trade export structure has shifted from reliance on imports to high-value exports, with a significant decrease in import share from 4.3% in 2015 to 0.2% in 2024 [4] - The 2025 defense budget is projected at 1.78 trillion yuan, with a consistent growth rate of 7.2%, indicating a stable growth foundation for defense investments [3] Valuation Insights - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the military industry is approximately 85.77, significantly higher than the overall market average of 22.59 [5][6] - The valuation premium in the military sector is attributed to high barriers to entry and the long-term investment required for core technology development [6] Investment Tools - The military industry presents complexities and information asymmetries, making it challenging for ordinary investors to participate directly [8] - The military leader ETF (code: 512710) offers a transparent and accessible investment vehicle, tracking the military leader index that focuses on leading companies across the military supply chain [8][9] Market Sentiment - As of October 30, the military leader ETF has seen a net inflow of 6.413 billion yuan this year, with a total scale of 13.735 billion yuan, reflecting strong market recognition [2][10] - The investment in the military sector is viewed as a long-term confidence in national technological strength and security, aligning with national strategies [10]

在投资的世界里，有些赛道注定不平凡。它们既承载着国家战略的厚度，又凝聚着科技创新的锐度，军工 行业便是如此。它如同静水深流，表面波澜不惊，底层却涌动着技术突破与时代机遇的暗潮。对普通投资 者而言，如何穿透迷雾，以理性姿态参与这一高门槛领域，既考验智慧，也需借力工具。 伴随国际格局演变，国防安全需求日益迫切，为行业注入三重动力：国家安全的战略内生驱动、军贸出口的外 部市场牵引，以及军民融合的技术创新溢出。站在"十四五"与"十五五"的交汇点，军工行业的长期投资价值正 逐步凸显。 然而，知易行难，行业的高复杂度与信息不对称成为普通投资者的现实门槛。军工产业链涵盖上游新材料、电 子元器件，中游发动机、制导系统，下游整机总装等多层级环节，技术壁垒高、研究难度大。在此背景下，借 道ETF布局龙头公司、分散个股风险，成为更务实的选择。 据证券时报•基金研究院统计，截至10月30日（下同），在场内军工ETF中，富国中证军工龙头ETF（代码： 512710）年内获资金净流入64.13亿元；规模达137.35亿元，较去年末增长135.37%，两项指标均位居全市场军 工ETF的首位，反映出市场对军工龙头ETF（512710）的高度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth and investment opportunities in China's military industry, driven by recent geopolitical tensions and upcoming military events, particularly the September 3 parade showcasing new domestic military equipment [4][5][11]. Summary by Sections Military Industry Performance - A-share military-related sectors, including military equipment and drone concepts, experienced a short-term surge, with companies like Zhongtian Rocket and Chengfei Integration hitting the daily limit [4]. - The China Securities Military Index has risen over 20% year-to-date as of August 18, 2025, outperforming many other sectors [4]. Fund Performance - Nearly all 120 defense and military-themed mutual funds have achieved positive returns this year, with 66 funds yielding over 20% and some exceeding 40% [4][5]. - Among funds with over 20 billion yuan in assets, the average return is 25.12%, with the top performers being Bosera Fund's Bosera Military Theme Stock A, Huaxia Fund's Huaxia Military Security Mixed A, and GF Fund's GF Small and Medium Cap Selected Mixed A [5][7]. Fund Manager Insights - Fund manager Zeng Peng of Bosera Military Theme Stock A reported a year-to-date return of 35.84%, significantly outperforming the benchmark [7]. - The fund maintained a high allocation in missile industry chains and sectors like military AI, drones, and information security, anticipating continued strong performance in the third quarter due to geopolitical catalysts [7][11]. Fund Rankings by Size - For funds with 5-20 billion yuan, the top performer is the China Europe High-end Equipment Stock Initiation C, managed by Li Shuai, with a return of 41.04% [9][10]. - In the 1-5 billion yuan category, the China Europe High-end Equipment Stock Initiation A leads with a return of 41.47% [13][14]. - The top fund in the 1 million to 10 million yuan category is the Huafu Guotai Min'an Flexible Allocation Mixed A, achieving a return of 42.72% [16][17]. Future Outlook - The military industry is expected to see a performance boost due to anticipated quarterly reports showing earnings turning points for many military companies and the upcoming military parade [11][18]. - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes modernization in defense and military capabilities, indicating a strategic shift for China's military industry towards leading rather than following [18].

Core Viewpoint - The merger between China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, entering the implementation phase, which is expected to boost the military industry sector [1][4]. Group 1: Merger Details - The merger involves a share swap and will lead to the suspension of trading for both companies' stocks starting August 13, with China Heavy Industry's stock being delisted [4]. - The merger is seen as a significant move in the military industry, potentially reducing domestic competition and enhancing military trade exports [4][5]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The military industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity due to ongoing mergers and acquisitions, with state-owned enterprises possessing numerous advantageous assets [5]. - Recent geopolitical events and increased military spending globally are likely to drive demand for military trade, enhancing the competitiveness of China's military products [6][7]. Group 3: Market Trends - The completion of the BeiDou-3 global satellite navigation system has shown significant growth, with the industry scale projected to increase from 403.3 billion yuan in 2020 to 570 billion yuan by 2024, and expected to exceed 600 billion yuan by the end of this year [7]. - The military industry is entering a fundamental upward cycle, driven by domestic demand for modernization and the transition towards intelligent and unmanned systems [7]. Group 4: Upcoming Events - The upcoming military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance against Japan is expected to positively impact the military sector, as historical trends indicate a surge in military stock performance leading up to such events [8][10]. - The current period marks a transition between the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, with significant growth in military contracts and orders anticipated [10]. Group 5: Investment Tools - The military ETF (512660) is highlighted as a key investment tool, covering the entire military industry chain and currently leading in scale among similar products [10].

Core Viewpoint - AVIC (02357) shares rose over 6%, closing at HKD 4.82 with a trading volume of HKD 298 million, following news of Pakistan's military incorporating Chinese-made Z-10ME helicopters into its army aviation units, aimed at modernizing defense equipment [1] Company Summary - AVIC is the only flagship company in Hong Kong's capital market focused on aerospace high-tech military and civilian general products and services, holding stakes in four A-share listed companies: AVIC Helicopter (600038), Hongdu Aviation (600316), AVIC Avionics (600372), and AVIC Optoelectronics (002179) [1] - The company's main business areas include helicopters, trainer aircraft, general aviation, airborne systems, aviation components, and aviation engineering services [1] Industry Summary - According to Zheshang Securities (601878), ongoing geopolitical conflicts by 2025 are expected to provide practical testing for China's military trade export equipment, potentially leading to a revaluation of domestic defense and military enterprises [1] - Industrial sentiment in the military sector is anticipated to be catalyzed by significant events, such as the upcoming military parade on September 3, which is expected to attract considerable public attention [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective decline on August 4, with the military industry sector performing strongly, showing resilience against the market downturn [1] - The Aerospace ETF (159227) recorded a rise of 1.31%, with key holdings such as Great Wall Military, Aerospace Electronics, and Zhenxin Technology increasing by over 7% [1] - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported significant military actions against Ukrainian infrastructure, highlighting the increasing importance of air power in modern warfare and the high technological barriers in the military industry [1] Group 2 - The Aerospace ETF (159227) tracks the National Aerospace Index, which has a strong military attribute, with 97.86% of the index comprising military-related sectors [1] - The weight of aerospace equipment in the ETF is 66.8%, significantly higher than that of the CSI Military and CSI National Defense indices, providing investors with an efficient way to capture core military aerospace opportunities [1] - Zhejiang Securities predicts that ongoing geopolitical conflicts will lead to a reassessment of the value of China's defense and military enterprises, as military exports gain practical validation in overseas conflicts [2]

Group 1 - A-shares indices continue to rise, with the aerospace and defense sector showing strong performance, particularly the Aerospace ETF (159227) which increased by 1.51% with a trading volume of 83.13 million yuan [1] - The aerospace ETF has attracted significant capital inflow, with over 335 million yuan net inflow since July, reaching a new high of 663 million yuan in total assets [1] - The aerospace sector is becoming a focal point in modern warfare, with high technical barriers and significant value contribution within the military industrial chain, making it a core area for investment [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical conflicts are expected to persist into 2025, providing practical validation for China's military trade exports, which may lead to a revaluation of domestic defense and military enterprises [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the military conflict between India and Pakistan, particularly focusing on the Kashmir region, which has escalated due to recent terrorist attacks and military actions [1][3]. - The geopolitical landscape has been significantly affected by various conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Palestine conflict, leading to increased military spending globally [4][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Military Spending Trends**: Global military expenditure reached $238.66 billion in 2023, marking a nearly 10% increase year-over-year, the largest growth since 2009 [5]. - **Regional Military Growth**: The military spending growth rate in Europe and Central Asia was the highest at 20.88% in 2023, while Sub-Saharan Africa saw over 10% growth [5]. - **Arms Trade Dynamics**: From 2019 to 2023, Asia-Pacific countries accounted for 37% of global arms imports, with the Middle East at 30% and Europe at 21% [6]. - **China's Arms Exports**: China's military equipment has gained recognition in the global arms market, with significant exports to Asia-Pacific countries, which constitute 85% of its arms exports [10][12]. Potential Investment Opportunities - **Demand for Low-Cost Military Equipment**: The ongoing conflicts are expected to increase demand for low-cost military equipment, particularly from countries surrounding conflict zones [16][17]. - **Chinese Military Equipment Performance**: The performance of Chinese military equipment in recent conflicts has improved its attractiveness to potential buyers in the Middle East and Africa [22]. - **Key Companies to Watch**: Companies such as AVIC, China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation, and others involved in drone and missile production are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of increased military orders [20][24]. Other Important Insights - **Impact of Geopolitical Tensions**: The escalation of conflicts in regions like Kashmir and the Middle East is likely to lead to increased military procurement from countries like Pakistan, which relies heavily on Chinese military supplies [21][22]. - **Future Orders and Market Dynamics**: The call suggests that the recent performance of Chinese military equipment in actual combat scenarios may lead to a surge in military orders from countries that have been hesitant due to a lack of combat experience with these systems [22][23]. - **Growth in Related Transactions**: Companies involved in military trade are expected to see significant increases in related transactions, indicating a robust outlook for military exports [23]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, focusing on the military industry dynamics and potential investment opportunities arising from current geopolitical tensions.