8月份，欧元区制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）升至50.7，创三年多以来新高，自2022年初以来首次突 破荣枯线，显示制造业重回扩张区间。推动增长的主要动力来自欧元区内部需求和产量的回升，新订单 增速达到近三年半以来最快水平，为经济复苏带来信心。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government has made significant adjustments to its import tariff policy, exempting key metals and minerals like gold, tungsten, uranium, and graphite, while adding silicon products to the tax list [1][2] - The exemptions are expected to benefit high-tech industries such as aerospace, consumer electronics, nuclear energy, and medical devices, providing stability to financial markets after previous confusion regarding gold tariffs [2] - The new tariffs on silicon products may pose cost challenges for the semiconductor and solar industries, raising concerns about the underlying intentions of the policy changes [2] Group 2 - The recent tariff adjustments have led to a dramatic increase in the U.S. trade deficit, which surged by 33% in July to reach $78.8 billion, the highest in four months, primarily due to a 5.9% rise in imports [4] - Companies are stockpiling goods in anticipation of higher tariffs, with gold imports hitting a record high of $10.5 billion in July, indicating a "rush to import" trend driven by policy expectations [4] - The manufacturing sector continues to face challenges, with the PMI remaining below 50 for six consecutive months, indicating ongoing contraction, and the automotive industry particularly affected by high tariffs on imported parts [5]

Core Insights - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported a 5.5% year-on-year increase in global air freight demand for July 2025, with international demand growing by 6.0% [1] - Air freight capacity also saw a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, with international capacity rising by 4.5% [1] - The demand for air freight in the Asia-North America route decreased by 1.0%, while most major trade routes experienced growth [1] Air Freight Demand and Capacity - Global air freight demand increased by 5.5% year-on-year, while capacity grew by 3.9% [1][3] - The load factor for the overall market improved by 0.7%, reaching 45.1% [3] Regional Performance - Asia-Pacific airlines experienced the highest growth in air freight demand at 11.1%, with capacity increasing by 7.3% [4] - European airlines saw a 4.1% increase in demand and a 4.0% rise in capacity [4] - North American airlines had the slowest growth at 0.7%, with a capacity decline of 0.6% [4] - Latin American airlines reported a 2.4% increase in demand and a 3.8% increase in capacity [4] - Middle Eastern airlines had a 2.6% increase in demand and a 5.9% rise in capacity [4] - African airlines saw a 9.4% increase in demand, but capacity slightly decreased by 0.1% [4] Trade Route Insights - The Europe-Asia trade route experienced a significant growth of 13.5%, marking 29 consecutive months of growth [5] - The Asia-North America route has seen a decline for three consecutive months, with a decrease of 1.0% [5] - The Middle East-Asia route grew by 8.5%, continuing a five-month growth trend [5] - The intra-Asia route also showed strong performance with a 10.3% increase, maintaining 21 months of growth [5]

尽管数据显示初请失业金人数增加，进一步表明劳动力市场正在放缓，但稳健的制造业采购经理人指数 却促使交易员减少了对降息的押注。货币市场显示，9月份降息的可能性约为65%。而一周前，这一几 率还在90%以上。 目前所有人的目光都集中在美联储年度研讨会上，主席鲍威尔定于周五发表讲话。交易员将密切关注他 的讲话，以寻找近期就业市场疲软后9月份降息的任何线索。 来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin 贸易方面，美国和欧盟周四敲定了上个月达成的框架协议。 与此同时，美国司法部暗示可能计划调查美联储理事库克，一位高级官员鼓励鲍威尔将她从美联储理事 名单中除名。特朗普总统的住房金融主管普尔特呼吁对她涉嫌在2021年达成的抵押贷款协议展开调查。 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内 容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。 包括克利夫兰联储主席哈马克、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德在内的多位政策 制定者都保持谨慎态度，并承认需要继续依赖数据。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the UK manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 48.0 in July, marking a six-month high but still remaining in the contraction zone, indicating ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [2] - The PMI has been in the contraction zone for ten consecutive months, highlighting persistent weaknesses in the UK manufacturing industry [2] - Standard & Poor's Global noted that the pace of decline in UK manufacturing has slowed to the mildest level in the current downturn cycle, with business confidence rising to a five-month high [2] Group 2 - Despite the improvement in PMI, there are still downward risks present, influenced by factors such as increased tariffs from the US government, contributing to overall weakness in the UK manufacturing sector [2] - Data indicates that UK car production hit a 70-year low in May, reflecting significant challenges within the automotive segment of the manufacturing industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Canada in July is reported at 46.1, an increase from the previous value of 45.6, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing activity [1] Group 1 - The July PMI figure of 46.1 suggests that the manufacturing sector is still in contraction territory, as any reading below 50 indicates a decline in activity [1] - The previous month's PMI was recorded at 45.6, showing a marginal improvement in the manufacturing sector's performance [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that Canada's S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June is reported at 45.6, a decrease from the previous value of 46.1 [1]

Group 1 - LME three-month copper rose by $54 or 0.56% to $9,702 per ton, supported by a weaker dollar, despite ongoing concerns about demand and unresolved trade tensions [1][3] - Copper prices have increased approximately 20% since hitting a low of $8,105 per ton in April 2023 [1] - The weaker dollar makes metals priced in dollars cheaper for buyers using other currencies, providing some support to prices [3] Group 2 - Recent manufacturing PMI data from Europe and the US remains in contraction territory, indicating a drag from current tariff situations on demand [3] - The US investigation into copper imports has led to a significant premium of COMEX copper prices over LME prices, with a spread of $946 per ton [3] - The production guidance for the Kakula mine has been adjusted to 370,000 to 420,000 tons for 2025, with the 2026 target of approximately 600,000 tons withdrawn [3][4] Group 3 - The downward revision of production estimates, particularly from the Democratic Republic of Congo, is impacting supply outlook, suggesting a potential supply shortage by year-end [4]

Group 1 - South Korea's manufacturing activity has contracted for the fourth consecutive month in May, with the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slightly rising to 47.7 from 47.5 in April, remaining below the neutral level of 50, indicating ongoing contraction in the sector [1] - The contraction in South Korea's manufacturing is attributed to weak domestic demand and the impact of increased U.S. trade tariffs, with new orders experiencing the largest decline since June 2020 and factory output decreasing at the fastest rate in two and a half years [1] - The Bank of Korea has initiated its fourth rate cut in the current easing cycle, lowering the economic growth forecast for the year from 1.5% to 0.8%, reflecting the pressures from weak domestic consumption and the adverse effects of U.S. tariff policies on exports [2] Group 2 - The economic outlook for South Korea is becoming increasingly pessimistic, with global investment banks predicting growth expectations below 1%, and the average growth rate forecast dropping to the 0.9% range within four weeks [2] - Manufacturing activity across much of Asia has slowed due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, with Japan's manufacturing PMI at 49.4 in May, indicating continued contraction for the 11th month, and Japan's GDP declining by 0.2% in the first quarter [2] - Despite the challenges, there are cautious signs of optimism regarding economic prospects, with some recovery in hiring activities in South Korea and Japan, as manufacturers anticipate improvements in global demand [3]

Group 1 - LME three-month copper rose by $118.50 or 1.25%, closing at $9,616.50 per ton on June 2 [1][2] - COMEX copper contracts reached a high of $4.9495 per pound, with the latest July contract up 3.74% at $4.8525 per pound [3] - The increase in U.S. aluminum and steel import tariffs to 50% announced by President Trump is impacting market dynamics, although copper was not directly mentioned [4][5] Group 2 - COMEX copper premium over LME copper expanded from $772 per ton to over $1,000 per ton [5] - Morgan Stanley reported that approximately 200,000 tons of additional copper have been imported into the U.S. over the past eight weeks, tightening the market outside the U.S. [6] - LME copper inventories have decreased by 45% since mid-February, reaching 148,450 tons, the lowest in nearly a year [7] Group 3 - The U.S. manufacturing sector has contracted for the third consecutive month, with the PMI at 48.5% in May, down from 48.7% in April [8][9] - China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5% in May, indicating a slight recovery in economic output [10] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for aluminum prices in the second half of 2025 by $140 to $2,280 per ton, citing smaller-than-expected market oversupply [12]